dave mcbride Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 (edited) Last ten years: Aaron Curry AJ Hawk Last 25 years: Aaron Curry AJ Hawk Lavar Arrington Marvin Jones Kevin Hardy Trev Alberts Quentin Coryatt Mike Croel Keith McCants Audray Bruce (#1) Mike Junkin Junior Seau Cornelius Bennett Derrick Thomas (although he essentially played DE) Anthony Bell Brian Bosworth was also a supplemental #1 pick by Seattle, but probably doesn't qualify as top five given Seattle's draft position that year. The lessons: 1) In the last decade, teams across the board have avoided spending top-five picks on LBs. The two who have didn't get much return on investment -- neither Curry nor Hawk have been game changers. 2) In a quarter century, the only top-five LBs chosen who have proven to be worth the picks are Bennett, Seau, and Thomas (who was very arguably a DE anyway). They were all picked ages ago. Marvin Jones and Arrington were nice players, but both were out of the league pretty quickly because of injuries. 3)I really don't see the Bills taking Von Miller with the #3 pick. Edited February 11, 2011 by dave mcbride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cash Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Great post, thanks for the research! But this is the think tank that drafted CJ Spiller at #9 last year. Von Miller at #3 wouldn't surprise me at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiley Dear Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 When you put it that way... I have to agree with you. Thanks for doing the research. Not sure if they will go DL or QB but they should not take an undersized LB at 3, no matter how good he is. But, the Bills have proven to be very unpredictable when it comes to the draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffalooByrd Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 You realize that you can pretty much find a list like this for every position? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 You realize that you can pretty much find a list like this for every position? Actually, you can't. That's my point. For all the other front-line positions (D-line, O-line, receiver, DB, QB, RB), none has gone 10 seasons with only 2 top five picks. 2 in ten years is very, very low, and it's a significant enough sample size to make a judgment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoggyHog Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Great post and really good information. I agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CookieG Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Actually, you can't. That's my point. For all the other front-line positions (D-line, O-line, receiver, DB, QB, RB), none has gone 10 seasons with only 2 top five picks. 2 in ten years is very, very low, and it's a significant enough sample size to make a judgment. well, there's only been 4 DB's taken in the Top 5 in the last decade (Berry, Taylor, Newman and Jammer. Of course, the Bills only had one top 5 pick during that period, or the percentage would be a lot higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 This is more why I think the Bills will go with Prince Amukamara or Patrick Peterson. I doubt they go QB. Also, see R.Rich's comments because his research supports the idea that drafting a DT might be worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yungmack Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Actually, you can't. That's my point. For all the other front-line positions (D-line, O-line, receiver, DB, QB, RB), none has gone 10 seasons with only 2 top five picks. 2 in ten years is very, very low, and it's a significant enough sample size to make a judgment. Good research. Thanks for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bananathumb Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Can VM be our new CB? Not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsPhan Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Last ten years: Aaron Curry AJ Hawk Last 25 years: Aaron Curry AJ Hawk Lavar Arrington Marvin Jones Kevin Hardy Trev Alberts Quentin Coryatt Mike Croel Keith McCants Audray Bruce (#1) Mike Junkin Junior Seau Cornelius Bennett Derrick Thomas (although he essentially played DE) Anthony Bell Brian Bosworth was also a supplemental #1 pick by Seattle, but probably doesn't qualify as top five given Seattle's draft position that year. The lessons: 1) In the last decade, teams across the board have avoided spending top-five picks on LBs. The two who have didn't get much return on investment -- neither Curry nor Hawk have been game changers. 2) In a quarter century, the only top-five LBs chosen who have proven to be worth the picks are Bennett, Seau, and Thomas (who was very arguably a DE anyway). They were all picked ages ago. Marvin Jones and Arrington were nice players, but both were out of the league pretty quickly because of injuries. 3)I really don't see the Bills taking Von Miller with the #3 pick. Outstanding post, well thought out including research to prove your point! Of course, every single year the Bills draft since Jimbo's retirement up to this year, I have been in favor of them drafting the best QB on their board with their first pick, so I am biased in favor of your opinion anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sisyphean Bills Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Actually, you can't. That's my point. For all the other front-line positions (D-line, O-line, receiver, DB, QB, RB), none has gone 10 seasons with only 2 top five picks. 2 in ten years is very, very low, and it's a significant enough sample size to make a judgment. Researching a bit... G 0 (the last guard to go in the top 5 was Ken Huff in 1975). C 0 (the last C to go in the top 5 was Bob Johnson in 1968). FB 0 (does anyone even use this position, let alone draft it?). TE 0 (2 were picked at 6 though). S 2 (Eric Berry and Sean Taylor). CB 2 (Jammer and Newman). QB 13; T 9; DE 6; RB 6; DT 5; WR 5; LB 2; K 0; P 0. This data nicely supports what some have been saying around here. The high value positions in rebuilding a franchise are to get a QB, a LT, and a pass rusher. You can go off the map with a scat back like Reggie Bush and maybe the other pieces come together. You can even go totally rogue like Matt Millen and take WRs but that didn't exactly pan out for him. FWIW: The Chargers took a RB and two CBs the first 3 years that the Butler Group was down there. So far, Buddy has taken a RB as his first move in Buffalo. And while we are on RB; of those 6 RBs, 3 were taken in 1 year: Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, and Cadillac Williams and Tomlinson is the only one that really had an above average career. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Researching a bit... G 0 (the last guard to go in the top 5 was Ken Huff in 1975). C 0 (the last C to go in the top 5 was Bob Johnson in 1968). FB 0 (does anyone even use this position, let alone draft it?). TE 0 (2 were picked at 6 though). S 2 (Eric Berry and Sean Taylor). CB 2 (Jammer and Newman). QB 13; T 9; DE 6; RB 6; DT 5; WR 5; LB 2; K 0; P 0. This data nicely supports what some have been saying around here. The high value positions in rebuilding a franchise are to get a QB, a LT, and a pass rusher. You can go off the map with a scat back like Reggie Bush and maybe the other pieces come together. You can even go totally rogue like Matt Millen and take WRs but that didn't exactly pan out for him. FWIW: The Chargers took a RB and two CBs the first 3 years that the Butler Group was down there. So far, Buddy has taken a RB as his first move in Buffalo. And while we are on RB; of those 6 RBs, 3 were taken in 1 year: Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, and Cadillac Williams and Tomlinson is the only one that really had an above average career. One thing that irks me is I think inside and outside backers, especially in our scheme are as different as LT vs guard or cb vs safety yet we always group LB across the board regardless of inside or out, 43 or 34.... I think an impact Derrick Thomas, Lawrence Taylor, even shawne merriman if he had stayed at early levels is worth a top 5. That is essentially your pass rush DE, but he has to be even more physically special and an even more rare body to be successful on those levels then an elite DE. Rare body + key position = top 5 value Question- does this count college DEs that took there hand off the ground for OLB as a pro ala someone like Quinn? Last, you can take a guy like bush when you have 2 probowl defensive ends, a probowl left tackle, and you just signed drew brees. Just like you can draft torry holt at wr when you already have pace, little, and Trent green- without those other blocks in place, skill guys are wasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sisyphean Bills Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 One thing that irks me is I think inside and outside backers, especially in our scheme are as different as LT vs guard or cb vs safety yet we always group LB across the board regardless of inside or out, 43 or 34.... I think an impact Derrick Thomas, Lawrence Taylor, even shawne merriman if he had stayed at early levels is worth a top 5. That is essentially your pass rush DE, but he has to be even more physically special and an even more rare body to be successful on those levels then an elite DE. Rare body + key position = top 5 value Question- does this count college DEs that took there hand off the ground for OLB as a pro ala someone like Quinn? Last, you can take a guy like bush when you have 2 probowl defensive ends, a probowl left tackle, and you just signed drew brees. Just like you can draft torry holt at wr when you already have pace, little, and Trent green- without those other blocks in place, skill guys are wasted. There were only 2 LBs. One is an inside LB (Hawk). The other is an OLB in a 4-3 and really not a DE with his hand off the ground. (Edit: I believe the DEs are listed as DE because they play/played with their hand on the ground. If you think about it, not many teams draft projection tweeners in the top 5 picks, because ... well, it is a big gamble and can get you fired.) The point of looking at the top 5 picks is that these are the awful teams. The teams drafting in the top 5 suck and have a lot of problems. They are usually the teams with coaching changes, legitimate front office purges, etc. The data is pretty clear. These teams go and try and find a franchise QB, a LT to keep the QB from getting destroyed (see the David Carr experience), or a pass rusher to try and kill the other team's QB. In the modern NFL, teams simply don't look to power football pieces to build their team around (blocking backs, H-backs, TEs, pulling guards and centers just aren't even considered). Even areas where one might suspect that the passing emphasis could have an impact, like WR and CB, simply aren't a point of emphasis either. (Unless your name is Matt Millen, that is, and you're building the perfect 0-16 team.) PS: The lack of emphasis on the LB position can be seen as a logical reaction to the deemphasis of the running game. A team's nickel and dime DBs are likely to see plenty of playing time during a season. AJ Hawk, for example, sits on the bench and watches the game when the Packers are playing a team like the Eagles, that throw, throw, and throw. 30 years ago, an NFL team would carry 3 WRs, 3 TEs, 6 or 7 RBs, 6 or 7 LBs (for a 4-3), and only 7 or 8 DBs. The trend of the game is pretty obvious when you look at those numbers compared to today. A question I posed a while back was whether someone is going to go counter-trend in this business and start taking advantage of these trends in the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 (edited) Last ten years: Aaron Curry AJ Hawk Last 25 years: Aaron Curry AJ Hawk Lavar Arrington Marvin Jones Kevin Hardy Trev Alberts Quentin Coryatt Mike Croel Keith McCants Audray Bruce (#1) Mike Junkin Junior Seau Cornelius Bennett Derrick Thomas (although he essentially played DE) Anthony Bell Brian Bosworth was also a supplemental #1 pick by Seattle, but probably doesn't qualify as top five given Seattle's draft position that year. The lessons: 1) In the last decade, teams across the board have avoided spending top-five picks on LBs. The two who have didn't get much return on investment -- neither Curry nor Hawk have been game changers. 2) In a quarter century, the only top-five LBs chosen who have proven to be worth the picks are Bennett, Seau, and Thomas (who was very arguably a DE anyway). They were all picked ages ago. Marvin Jones and Arrington were nice players, but both were out of the league pretty quickly because of injuries. 3)I really don't see the Bills taking Von Miller with the #3 pick. Excellent review. A quality analysis which gives one pause about taking a particular positon with such a high pick. Just think, Bill Polian creatively maneuvered to trade for Cornelious Bennett, one of the most dynamic defensive players in the history of the franchise. The owner went on to fire Polian and eventually give a person like Dick Jauron more authority in personnel. That is so upsetting. Edited February 12, 2011 by JohnC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 (edited) There were only 2 LBs. One is an inside LB (Hawk). The other is an OLB in a 4-3 and really not a DE with his hand off the ground. The point of looking at the top 5 picks is that these are the awful teams. The teams drafting in the top 5 suck and have a lot of problems. They are usually the teams with coaching changes, legitimate front office purges, etc. The data is pretty clear. These teams go and try and find a franchise QB, a LT to keep the QB from getting destroyed (see the David Carr experience), or a pass rusher to try and kill the other team's QB. In the modern NFL, teams simply don't look to power football pieces to build their team around (blocking backs, H-backs, TEs, pulling guards and centers just aren't even considered). Even areas where one might suspect that the passing emphasis could have an impact, like WR and CB, simply aren't a point of emphasis either. (Unless your name is Matt Millen, that is, and you're building the perfect 0-16 team.) Clearly my point was that us going 34 olb could be that pass rusher for us and listing hawk and curry didn't reeeeally apply In the original post. It'd be like including guards with LT or TEs with wide receivers. Unfortunately there aren't that many 3-4 teams picking in the top 5 so you tend not to see that guy go there. Merriman to SD being the closest recent example that I thought of... In all honesty a guy like Quinn fits that role more then dareus (getting after the qb) but would show up as a LB not a DE.... Edited February 12, 2011 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Researching a bit... G 0 (the last guard to go in the top 5 was Ken Huff in 1975). C 0 (the last C to go in the top 5 was Bob Johnson in 1968). FB 0 (does anyone even use this position, let alone draft it?). TE 0 (2 were picked at 6 though). S 2 (Eric Berry and Sean Taylor). CB 2 (Jammer and Newman). QB 13; T 9; DE 6; RB 6; DT 5; WR 5; LB 2; K 0; P 0. This data nicely supports what some have been saying around here. The high value positions in rebuilding a franchise are to get a QB, a LT, and a pass rusher. You can go off the map with a scat back like Reggie Bush and maybe the other pieces come together. You can even go totally rogue like Matt Millen and take WRs but that didn't exactly pan out for him. FWIW: The Chargers took a RB and two CBs the first 3 years that the Butler Group was down there. So far, Buddy has taken a RB as his first move in Buffalo. And while we are on RB; of those 6 RBs, 3 were taken in 1 year: Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, and Cadillac Williams and Tomlinson is the only one that really had an above average career. Nice; thanks. That said, if you're going to compare, I'd combine DBs (4 total) because I'm combining LBs (MLBs and OLBs; 3-4 and 4-3 guys). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Nice; thanks. That said, if you're going to compare, I'd combine DBs (4 total) because I'm combining LBs (MLBs and OLBs; 3-4 and 4-3 guys). I guess my question is why combine in the first place for LB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 There were only 2 LBs. One is an inside LB (Hawk). The other is an OLB in a 4-3 and really not a DE with his hand off the ground. (Edit: I believe the DEs are listed as DE because they play/played with their hand on the ground. If you think about it, not many teams draft projection tweeners in the top 5 picks, because ... well, it is a big gamble and can get you fired.) The point of looking at the top 5 picks is that these are the awful teams. The teams drafting in the top 5 suck and have a lot of problems. They are usually the teams with coaching changes, legitimate front office purges, etc. The data is pretty clear. These teams go and try and find a franchise QB, a LT to keep the QB from getting destroyed (see the David Carr experience), or a pass rusher to try and kill the other team's QB. In the modern NFL, teams simply don't look to power football pieces to build their team around (blocking backs, H-backs, TEs, pulling guards and centers just aren't even considered). Even areas where one might suspect that the passing emphasis could have an impact, like WR and CB, simply aren't a point of emphasis either. (Unless your name is Matt Millen, that is, and you're building the perfect 0-16 team.) PS: The lack of emphasis on the LB position can be seen as a logical reaction to the deemphasis of the running game. A team's nickel and dime DBs are likely to see plenty of playing time during a season. AJ Hawk, for example, sits on the bench and watches the game when the Packers are playing a team like the Eagles, that throw, throw, and throw. 30 years ago, an NFL team would carry 3 WRs, 3 TEs, 6 or 7 RBs, 6 or 7 LBs (for a 4-3), and only 7 or 8 DBs. The trend of the game is pretty obvious when you look at those numbers compared to today. A question I posed a while back was whether someone is going to go counter-trend in this business and start taking advantage of these trends in the NFL. Great post, and I think you're spot on about the running game. Also, Jimmy Johnson was pretty vocal about his philosophy of focusing on d-line and treating LBs as interchangeable parts. He thought (and probably still thinks) that it's a position of lesser importance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sisyphean Bills Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Nice; thanks. That said, if you're going to compare, I'd combine DBs (4 total) because I'm combining LBs (MLBs and OLBs; 3-4 and 4-3 guys). Or we could go the other way rather than mixing apples and oranges in terms of skill sets. So: 1 ILB; 1 OLB. As far as tweeners that are guys with a LB (or S) body type that speed rush the QB, I count a total of 0 in the top 5. I think your point is dead nuts on regardless. Edit: One might imagine a new GM taking over a bad team and seeing Aaron Maybin available at the #3 draft position and turning to his All World VP of College Scouting and simply saying, "Maybinot." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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