Carucci: Bills GM Nix likes Cam Newton "a great deal"

[Kelly the Dog]

People really need to differentiate between the concepts of "can't do it" and "hasn't done it" (or, say, "was never asked to do it").

 

Cam Newton wasn't asked to read complex defenses because of the system that his coaches played at Auburn before he got there, while he was there, and will continue to do it after he is gone.

 

He quite often looked to his second, and third receivers while going through progressions on the field, however.

 

He also often scrambled early because he was the best runner on the field and it was the best thing to do to win the game. That doesn't at all mean he always wants to run first, or he will do that in the pros. It only means that's what worked great in college. It's just plain foolish to say he is a run first quarterback because he is not. He wasn't in high school, He wasn't at Blinn College. He did what he was coached to do and he won 24 out of 25 games in college (or something like that, 11-1 at Blinn, undefeated at Auburn).

 

He's going to have to learn how to read complex defenses in the NFL for the first time. So is every other rookie QB. It's just plain wrong to say he couldn't do it in college so he cannot do it in the pros. He wasn't asked to do it in college.

Edited February 13, 2011 by Kelly the Fair and Balanced Dog

[BoozeCruise]

This is new how you do things as a general manager. You let sources say you're interested. It's a way to build up trade value. It's also a possibility that you do this and then actually take him. Lay your cards on the table and basically say, "talk me outta this with the right package, otherwise this guy is gonna be a Buffalo Bill." Can even trade him after the fact if you want. That Giants package to get Eli Manning certainly worked out for San Diego.

 

Bottom It's something for other teams to think about. That much is for sure. Definitely new ground for the franchise.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Vince Young won a NC at Texas and he became a huge liability to the Titans. College stats are nice for the Heisman voters, but they're not going to tell me if a player will succeed in the NFL. Furthermore, the NFL Draft is not a time when you take huge chances on players who have character concerns like Newton does. Buffalo needs to stick the landing on their pick and leave the first round with a starter from Day 1, not another project who needs time learning how to read defenses that'll sit for a season.

 

If anyone's gun-shy about taking a DL and is worried about the bust rate, well, look at players like Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, B.J. Raji, or Sedrick Ellis. All were top 10 DT's taken and all have or look to be solid if not excellent picks. QB's aren't easy to find, but good personnel people tend to locate them more easily. The jury is still out on ole Buddy, who has proven nothing as a GM one year in. Taking a project like Newton tells me he has no clue whatsoever.

Character concerns? You mean cause his old man is a greedy parent trying to live off his 20 y/o kid? Wow! you are a little harsh. And i know about the computer incident. But with a role model like his dad, what you expect? He seems to me the real deal. great attitude, makes everyone around him play better. A leader. Something Young never was.

 

Not saying DT is the wrong place to go, just saying you dont win championships with a great Dline, ask the Vikings!

[BillsVet]

Character concerns? You mean cause his old man is a greedy parent trying to live off his 20 y/o kid? Wow! you are a little harsh. And i know about the computer incident. But with a role model like his dad, what you expect? He seems to me the real deal. great attitude, makes everyone around him play better. A leader. Something Young never was.

 

Not saying DT is the wrong place to go, just saying you dont win championships with a great Dline, ask the Vikings!

 

Harsh, or something that might sway me from using the franchise's highest draft pick in 26 years on someone who will get 40M+ guaranteed? If I'm the Bills and I want to pick the right player rather than a ticket seller (we'll see there), I'm looking elsewhere. This is a huge investment and one that better be researched to the nth degree. And BTW, isn't Buddy wary of 1 year wonders? Because last I checked Blinn JC isn't Auburn or Alabama.

 

I'm not advocating DT necessarily, just saying Cam Newton isn't the player third overall.

[purple haze]

Harsh, or something that might sway me from using the franchise's highest draft pick in 26 years on someone who will get 40M+ guaranteed? If I'm the Bills and I want to pick the right player rather than a ticket seller (we'll see there), I'm looking elsewhere. This is a huge investment and one that better be researched to the nth degree. And BTW, isn't Buddy wary of 1 year wonders? Because last I checked Blinn JC isn't Auburn or Alabama.

 

I'm not advocating DT necessarily, just saying Cam Newton isn't the player third overall.

 

It's not about Blinn. It's about success. He was successful there. He was successful at Auburn. Why wouldn't he continue to be successful?

 

Character concerns? You mean cause his old man is a greedy parent trying to live off his 20 y/o kid? Wow! you are a little harsh. And i know about the computer incident. But with a role model like his dad, what you expect? He seems to me the real deal. great attitude, makes everyone around him play better. A leader. Something Young never was.

 

Not saying DT is the wrong place to go, just saying you dont win championships with a great Dline, ask the Vikings!

 

Those positive traits you mentioned about Newton were also probably influenced by his parents as well. Maybe Cecil Newton isn't all bad, huh?

[NoSaint]

It's not about Blinn. It's about success. He was successful there. He was successful at Auburn. Why wouldn't he continue to be successful?

 

if he didnt win, we would certainly be talking about it.

 

i have to think that means that since he did win, it means something. even if just that he handles his business.

 

its also a year of tape, in a different system, that none of us have really seen and i am sure chan/buddy have. things we say he cant do because he wasnt asked to do them at auburn might show up in that film for all i know.

[Orton's Arm]

It's not about Blinn. It's about success. He was successful there. He was successful at Auburn. Why wouldn't he continue to be successful?

This post prompted me to look up the past Heisman Trophy winners. Below is a list of the QBs who've won Heisman Trophies since 1985

 

Vinny Testaverde (1986)

Andre Ware (1989)

Ty Detmer (1990)

Gino Torretta (1992)

Charlie Ward (1993)

Danny Wuerffel (1996)

Chris Weinke (2000)

Eric Crouch (2001)

Carson Palmer (2002)

Jason White (2003)

Matt Leinart (2004)

Troy Smith (2006)

Tim Tebow (2007)

Sam Bradford (2008)

Cam Newton (2010)

 

Sam Bradford's career is off to a good start, and Carson Palmer played at a high level for the first five or six years of his career. Vinny Testaverde was also a solid starter. So it's not like getting a Heisman prevents you from being a successful NFL QB. But most of the QBs on that list are not Bradfords or Palmers or Testaverdes. Most are guys like Andre Ware, Gino Torretta, Danny Wuerffel, Eric Crouch, Matt Leinart, Troy Smith, or the many others on that list who failed to develop into solid NFL starters. To say that "QB X won in college, he's likely to continue to win in the pros," is clearly contraindicated by the available data. Most QBs who win Heisman Trophies are failures at the NFL level.

[Kelly the Dog]

This post prompted me to look up the past Heisman Trophy winners. Below is a list of the QBs who've won Heisman Trophies since 1985

 

Vinny Testaverde (1986)

Andre Ware (1989)

Ty Detmer (1990)

Gino Torretta (1992)

Charlie Ward (1993)

Danny Wuerffel (1996)

Chris Weinke (2000)

Eric Crouch (2001)

Carson Palmer (2002)

Jason White (2003)

Matt Leinart (2004)

Troy Smith (2006)

Tim Tebow (2007)

Sam Bradford (2008)

Cam Newton (2010)

 

Most are guys like Andre Ware, Gino Torretta, Danny Wuerffel, Eric Crouch, Matt Leinart, Troy Smith, or the many others on that list who failed to develop into solid NFL starters. To say that "QB X won in college, he's likely to continue to win in the pros," is clearly contraindicated by the available data. Most QBs who win Heisman Trophies are failures at the NFL level.

Most everyone could have told you that none of the guys you mentioned would be good quarterbacks in the NFL before they started because of physical deficiencies in their game, with the exception of Andre Ware, who was a huge question mark because he was in the Run n Shoot offense. It's why they werent thought of enough to be drafted high in the first round. With Leinart, about half thought would never make it because of physical question marks in his game. I wouldn't have drafted Leinart in the fourth round, personally.

 

From that list, only Testerverde, Palmer and Bradford were thought to be sure fire picks as franchise quarterbacks. Ware was the wild card. All others were never considered top NFL prospects. Newton is.

[NoSaint]

This post prompted me to look up the past Heisman Trophy winners. Below is a list of the QBs who've won Heisman Trophies since 1985

 

Vinny Testaverde (1986)

Andre Ware (1989)

Ty Detmer (1990)

Gino Torretta (1992)

Charlie Ward (1993)

Danny Wuerffel (1996)

Chris Weinke (2000)

Eric Crouch (2001)

Carson Palmer (2002)

Jason White (2003)

Matt Leinart (2004)

Troy Smith (2006)

Tim Tebow (2007)

Sam Bradford (2008)

Cam Newton (2010)

 

Sam Bradford's career is off to a good start, and Carson Palmer played at a high level for the first five or six years of his career. Vinny Testaverde was also a solid starter. So it's not like getting a Heisman prevents you from being a successful NFL QB. But most of the QBs on that list are not Bradfords or Palmers or Testaverdes. Most are guys like Andre Ware, Gino Torretta, Danny Wuerffel, Eric Crouch, Matt Leinart, Troy Smith, or the many others on that list who failed to develop into solid NFL starters. To say that "QB X won in college, he's likely to continue to win in the pros," is clearly contraindicated by the available data. Most QBs who win Heisman Trophies are failures at the NFL level.

 

The heisman, not the only measure of a successful winning qb. Many have won without the heisman.

 

Few have been losers and moved on tho I bet.

[Lv-Bills]

Most everyone could have told you that none of the guys you mentioned would be good quarterbacks in the NFL before they started because of physical deficiencies in their game, with the exception of Andre Ware, who was a huge question mark because he was in the Run n Shoot offense. It's why they werent thought of enough to be drafted high in the first round. With Leinart, about half thought would never make it because of physical question marks in his game. I wouldn't have drafted Leinart in the fourth round, personally.

 

From that list, only Testerverde, Palmer and Bradford were thought to be sure fire picks as franchise quarterbacks. Ware was the wild card. All others were never considered top NFL prospects. Newton is.

Damn, I had to sit back and try to think who the hell Jason White was for a second there. Don't know if I drew a blank, or if he was just that forgettable. lol

 

[ReturnoftheBuffaloBeast23]

Damn, I had to sit back and try to think who the hell Jason White was for a second there. Don't know if I drew a blank, or if he was just that forgettable. lol

 

 

I just googled Jason White and still don't know who the fu*k he is... He's absolutely forgettable... If the question of "who was the 2003 Heisman winner" arises on who wants to be a millionaire and on it im dead...I could have 20 life lines and its not gonna make a difference...LOL...

[Orton's Arm]

Most everyone could have told you that none of the guys you mentioned would be good quarterbacks in the NFL before they started because of physical deficiencies in their game, with the exception of Andre Ware, who was a huge question mark because he was in the Run n Shoot offense. It's why they werent thought of enough to be drafted high in the first round. With Leinart, about half thought would never make it because of physical question marks in his game. I wouldn't have drafted Leinart in the fourth round, personally.

 

From that list, only Testerverde, Palmer and Bradford were thought to be sure fire picks as franchise quarterbacks. Ware was the wild card. All others were never considered top NFL prospects. Newton is.

Some consider Newton a legitimate franchise QB. A number of others do not. I'd be very leery of taking him, especially as high as third overall!

[NoSaint]

Some consider Newton a legitimate franchise QB. A number of others do not. I'd be very leery of taking him, especially as high as third overall!

 

I think when it comes down to it, anyone you pick before about pick 100 you have to ask yourself - is this the guy? If the answer is maybe or I don't know, he shouldn't be your pick at 3, 30, or 90. If the answer is yes, I could care less if you take him at 1. Obviously, maximize value as best you can, but reach all you want. That's the guy you are willing to stake your career on, go get him.

 

When we passed on clausen at 9, I knew we would at 40. If we passed on tebow at 9 and were willing to go get him at 20.... That would disappoint me.

 

I really see it as yes or no, not pick 3 vs pick 10 for a qb.

[purple haze]

This post prompted me to look up the past Heisman Trophy winners. Below is a list of the QBs who've won Heisman Trophies since 1985

 

Vinny Testaverde (1986)

Andre Ware (1989)

Ty Detmer (1990)

Gino Torretta (1992)

Charlie Ward (1993)

Danny Wuerffel (1996)

Chris Weinke (2000)

Eric Crouch (2001)

Carson Palmer (2002)

Jason White (2003)

Matt Leinart (2004)

Troy Smith (2006)

Tim Tebow (2007)

Sam Bradford (2008)

Cam Newton (2010)

 

Sam Bradford's career is off to a good start, and Carson Palmer played at a high level for the first five or six years of his career. Vinny Testaverde was also a solid starter. So it's not like getting a Heisman prevents you from being a successful NFL QB. But most of the QBs on that list are not Bradfords or Palmers or Testaverdes. Most are guys like Andre Ware, Gino Torretta, Danny Wuerffel, Eric Crouch, Matt Leinart, Troy Smith, or the many others on that list who failed to develop into solid NFL starters. To say that "QB X won in college, he's likely to continue to win in the pros," is clearly contraindicated by the available data. Most QBs who win Heisman Trophies are failures at the NFL level.

 

We can play that game all day. How many of those players had Newton's physical gifts? Who had his arm strength, but not his mobility? Who had his mobility, but not his arm strength? Who had his arm strength and mobility, but not his size? Who had his intangibles? There are no guarantees and if the Bills take Fairley or Dareus or Peterson or Green or Miller or any other player they could tank too. Looking up Heisman winners is meaningless because we could make just as long a list for Butkus winners or Thorpe winners or whatever award winner. The NFL is a hard league and no player is a sure thing at any position.

Edited February 14, 2011 by purple haze

[Orton's Arm]

We can play that game all day. How many of those players had Newton's physical gifts? Who had his arm strength, but not his mobility? Who had his mobility, but not his arm strength? Who had his arm strength and mobility, but not his size? Who had his intangibles? There are no guarantees and if the Bills take Fairley or Dareus or Peterson or Green or Miller or any other player they could tank too. Looking up Heisman winners is meaningless because we could make just as long a list for Butkus winners or Thorpe winners or whatever award winner. The NFL is a hard league and no player is a sure thing at any position.

Show me a list of first round QBs who were taken primarily because of their physical gifts, and I'll show you a list of first round busts! I'm sure there are a few exceptions to that rule, but they are rare exceptions. What will make or break a QB at the NFL level is his accuracy, ability to read defenses, ability to see multiple reads on a play, and his other mental gifts. Toughness, work ethic, and leadership clearly play a role as well. It's clearly better to have physical gifts than not, but you should always avoid the temptation to overvalue physical gifts in an NFL QB. Losman, for example, had really good physical gifts. Much better than Fitz's, in fact.

 

I tried looking up Newton's Wonderlic score, but it appears he either hasn't taken the test yet, or else his score hasn't been made public. (If someone knows his score, please provide it and a link.) Basically what I'm saying here is you want to take a QB for his brains and accuracy first, his physical gifts a distant, distant second.

[Kelly the Dog]

Show me a list of first round QBs who were taken primarily because of their physical gifts, and I'll show you a list of first round busts! I'm sure there are a few exceptions to that rule, but they are rare exceptions. What will make or break a QB at the NFL level is his accuracy, ability to read defenses, ability to see multiple reads on a play, and his other mental gifts. Toughness, work ethic, and leadership clearly play a role as well. It's clearly better to have physical gifts than not, but you should always avoid the temptation to overvalue physical gifts in an NFL QB. Losman, for example, had really good physical gifts. Much better than Fitz's, in fact.

 

I tried looking up Newton's Wonderlic score, but it appears he either hasn't taken the test yet, or else his score hasn't been made public. (If someone knows his score, please provide it and a link.) Basically what I'm saying here is you want to take a QB for his brains and accuracy first, his physical gifts a distant, distant second.

That's is almost entirely untrue. Toughness is physical. Accuracy is not a mental gift, it's physical. Guys on your list like Danny Weurfell, Detmer, Leinart, etc, along with easily a dozen QBs every year coming out of college have the abilities and mental gifts necessary to become franchise quarterbacks in the NFL. Usually the one thing holding them back is their physical gifts, either they are too short, too slender, lack the arm strength, mechanics, footwork, too slow, etc. NFL's need both the physical gifts and the mental capacity to succeed, and not many become franchise players without both, but most of the great college quarterbacks (that aren't gadget players or runners) lack the size and arm and mechanics to play in the NFL. Kellen Moore is a good example this year. Colt McCoy last year would have been the top overall pick if he had Bradford's size and arm.

 

Teams draft players because of their physical gifts who lack the mental abilities all the time because they HOPE they develop from the neck up because they know you can't succeed without the physical gifts. You rarely see guys drafted high who are great throwers and brilliant football minds without sufficient size and arm. The reason you always see guys with big arms and great size fail is because teams gamble they will pick up the mental game. They don't even try to draft guys high who lack the physical game.*

 

*Leinart, for example, was an exception, but only because some scouts and GMs, like the Cardinals, THOUGHT his physical limitations wouldn't prevent him from succeeding. Many others, including myself, saw him and said the guy has everything BUT he has no arm strength and is too slow to play in the NFL. He'll get killed and he won't be able to get the ball downfield even if he is accurate and can read defenses and is a winner. And that's exactly what happened.

[DreReed83]

People really need to differentiate between the concepts of "can't do it" and "hasn't done it" (or, say, "was never asked to do it").

 

Cam Newton wasn't asked to read complex defenses because of the system that his coaches played at Auburn before he got there, while he was there, and will continue to do it after he is gone.

 

He quite often looked to his second, and third receivers while going through progressions on the field, however.

 

He also often scrambled early because he was the best runner on the field and it was the best thing to do to win the game. That doesn't at all mean he always wants to run first, or he will do that in the pros. It only means that's what worked great in college. It's just plain foolish to say he is a run first quarterback because he is not. He wasn't in high school, He wasn't at Blinn College. He did what he was coached to do and he won 24 out of 25 games in college (or something like that, 11-1 at Blinn, undefeated at Auburn).

 

He's going to have to learn how to read complex defenses in the NFL for the first time. So is every other rookie QB. It's just plain wrong to say he couldn't do it in college so he cannot do it in the pros. He wasn't asked to do it in college.

 

No he didnt. If you watched any of his games (which you obviously didn't), he either looks at his first/second option and runs, while never looking downfield to throw. It's pathetic. This dude has ONE year of experience against real competition. I'm not even going to bother looking at his JUCO stats/numbers because it's JUCO. Doesn't even count. One year of experience in an offensive system taht doesn't require you to read a defense?

Edited February 14, 2011 by DreReed83

[stony]

No he didnt. If you watched any of his games (which you obviously didn't), he either looks at his first/second option and runs, while never looking downfield to throw. It's pathetic. This dude has ONE year of experience against real competition. I'm not even going to bother looking at his JUCO stats/numbers because it's JUCO. Doesn't even count. One year of experience in an offensive system taht doesn't require you to read a defense?

 

I'm w/ Kelly....Dog on this one. Went through his projections way more then people have given him credit for. Did you know Sam Bradford had blitz calls and defensive formations yelled into him before the snap? They literally told him where to throw the ball. It looks like he'll turn out OK. It's pretty common, especially w/ the spread offenses in college.

[Kelly the Dog]

No he didnt. If you watched any of his games (which you obviously didn't), he either looks at his first/second option and runs, while never looking downfield to throw. It's pathetic. This dude has ONE year of experience against real competition. I'm not even going to bother looking at his JUCO stats/numbers because it's JUCO. Doesn't even count. One year of experience in an offensive system taht doesn't require you to read a defense?

I DVR'd his last seven games. I'll bet you $10,000 right now there are numerous plays over those games where he looked at three or more targets, let alone two. Sometimes in the pocket, sometimes while scrambling and looking to pass first instead of run. He looked downfield to throw after starting to scramble all the time.

 

And obviously you know less about him than your posts suggest, which is substantial. At Blinn, Newton was not at all a running QB, let alone a run first QB. In 12 games he ran 108 times for 655 yards (and those stats may or may not include sacks as carries, which would indicate him even less of a runner. He threw 336 passes.

http://www.njcaa.org/colleges_college_stats.cfm?sid=11&divid=0&slid=5&seasonselect=459&collegeid=1687&report_id=3078&requesttimeout=500

[Dorkington]

No he didnt. If you watched any of his games (which you obviously didn't), he either looks at his first/second option and runs, while never looking downfield to throw. It's pathetic. This dude has ONE year of experience against real competition. I'm not even going to bother looking at his JUCO stats/numbers because it's JUCO. Doesn't even count. One year of experience in an offensive system taht doesn't require you to read a defense?

 

Do you think he is uncoachable?

 

The way I see it, if we do draft a QB, he's not going to be starting this year (or even the next). So unless you think the guy is completely uncoachable, I wouldn't hold his relative "greenness" against him seeing as he's going to get a chance to be with an NFL team for a year or two before being thrown into the fire.

 

(Note: I'm not for or against drafting Newton as a QB pick, I'm a bit neutral on the subject, as I think we need to focus on defense)