Carucci: Bills GM Nix likes Cam Newton "a great deal"

[Alphadawg7]

The Bills picked Marshawn Lynch in 2007; Leon Hall was drafted 6 picks later by the Bengals.

 

That factoid aside, I don't believe they'll pick Newton. Buddy seems like he's going to draft the guy that he thinks will be the best football player, and my (only semi-educated) guess is that it won't be a QB at 3.

 

Gotcha, thats right, got the year wrong on McKelvin...just seems like McKelvin hasnt been living up to expectations for so long it feels like he was drafted in 07...

[Orton's Arm]

In what year of this team's existence are they finally going to focus on stopping the run and protecting the QB? WHAT FREAKING YEAR???

Someone pointed out that it's been 40 years or so since the Bills took a QB with their first draft pick. (Lee Evans was our first draft pick in 2004; with Losman being our second. Likewise, Jim Kelly was the second of our two first round picks in 1983.) Considering that QB is the most important position on the field, one could safely say the Bills have devoted too few resources to it on draft day. Instead, those resources have been squandered on RBs and DBs.

 

All this being said, I see no reason whatsoever to take Newton third overall. As someone pointed out, he's a one year wonder. Add to that the questions about his ability to process information quickly and progress through his reads, and you're looking at a QB who has many of the symptoms of a bust. The Bills need a difference maker at third overall, not some QB whose three contributions to the team will likely be the use of the third overall pick, the consumption of lots of Ralph's (comparatively) limited budget, and discouraging the team from drafting some other, better QB either later in the 2011 draft or in 2012.

[NoSaint]

Someone pointed out that it's been 40 years or so since the Bills took a QB with their first draft pick. (Lee Evans was our first draft pick in 2004; with Losman being our second. Likewise, Jim Kelly was the second of our two first round picks in 1983.) Considering that QB is the most important position on the field, one could safely say the Bills have devoted too few resources to it on draft day. Instead, those resources have been squandered on RBs and DBs.

 

All this being said, I see no reason whatsoever to take Newton third overall. As someone pointed out, he's a one year wonder. Add to that the questions about his ability to process information quickly and progress through his reads, and you're looking at a QB who has many of the symptoms of a bust. The Bills need a difference maker at third overall, not some QB whose three contributions to the team will likely be the use of the third overall pick, the consumption of lots of Ralph's (comparatively) limited budget, and discouraging the team from drafting some other, better QB either later in the 2011 draft or in 2012.

 

 

Hmmm I'm counting drew and rj as taking our first pick, and jp took our first pick but of the following year - just throwing it out there.

 

I would be curious - correlation of various franchises success over 50 years as connected to how they tend to spend resources.

[Orton's Arm]

Hmmm I'm counting drew and rj as taking our first pick, and jp took our first pick but of the following year - just throwing it out there.

 

I would be curious - correlation of various franchises success over 50 years as connected to how they tend to spend resources.

I don't know that it's accurate to count Drew as a draft pick per se, considering how far into his career he was when we took him. A draft pick is supposed to be a guy who's never played a down of football in the NFL, but who's young and will have his whole career in front of him if he works out well. Bledsoe was the exact opposite of all that: he was a known commodity in the waning years of his career; and gave TD the quick fix he was looking for at the QB position, while creating no possibility whatever of any kind of long-term solution.

 

RJ was a different story: being younger and much less of a known commodity than Drew, using a first round pick on him had a lot more in common with drafting a QB than did the Bledsoe trade.

 

I too would be curious about whether there's a correlation between where resources are allocated and teams' subsequent success. But there's something that would weaken the apparent correlation. Normally teams acquire a certain number of unexpectedly talented players later on in the draft. But there's random variation regarding which positions those players actually play! For example, the Patriots took a Hall of Fame QB in the sixth round. Other teams have been able to find very good offensive linemen, WRs, and other very good players at every position on the field in the later rounds of the draft. Any time a team fills a need with a player like that, it's very unlikely to use an early pick on that same position. (The Patriots haven't used any first or second round picks on QBs since they took Brady, for example.) The fact that the Patriots haven't used any early picks on the QB position in the last ten+ years doesn't mean they consider the QB position unimportant! On the contrary. But if you were to throw the Patriots' drafting record into some statistical model, that model would return the conclusion that a de-emphasis on the QB position is associated with winning lots of games. If a team without a QB tried to similarly de-emphasize the QB position, they'd find that a strategy which works quite well for a team with Tom Brady might not have remotely similar results for a team that's lining up Joey Harrington under center.

 

The other problem with all this is that a team which uses a first round pick on a QB and gets it right (Colts, Peyton Manning) won't have to come back to the QB well again for a very long time! The opposite is of course true of a team whose QB draft picks turn out to be busts.

 

I think that a better way of analyzing teams is to do the following:

1) Break a team down into units. (OL, QB, WR corps, RB, etc.)

2) Grade each unit. (OL = B+, QB = B, etc.)

3) Determine the correlation between the strength of each unit and a team's number of wins. With a large enough data set, this will help show you which positions are most important.

 

Knowing which positions are most important will help you allocate your early draft picks!

[NoSaint]

I don't know that it's accurate to count Drew as a draft pick per se, considering how far into his career he was when we took him. A draft pick is supposed to be a guy who's never played a down of football in the NFL, but who's young and will have his whole career in front of him if he works out well. Bledsoe was the exact opposite of all that: he was a known commodity in the waning years of his career; and gave TD the quick fix he was looking for at the QB position, while creating no possibility whatever of any kind of long-term solution.

 

RJ was a different story: being younger and much less of a known commodity than Drew, using a first round pick on him had a lot more in common with drafting a QB than did the Bledsoe trade.

 

I too would be curious about whether there's a correlation between where resources are allocated and teams' subsequent success. But there's something that would weaken the apparent correlation. Normally teams acquire a certain number of unexpectedly talented players later on in the draft. But there's random variation regarding which positions those players actually play! For example, the Patriots took a Hall of Fame QB in the sixth round. Other teams have been able to find very good offensive linemen, WRs, and other very good players at every position on the field in the later rounds of the draft. Any time a team fills a need with a player like that, it's very unlikely to use an early pick on that same position. (The Patriots haven't used any first or second round picks on QBs since they took Brady, for example.) The fact that the Patriots haven't used any early picks on the QB position in the last ten+ years doesn't mean they consider the QB position unimportant! On the contrary. But if you were to throw the Patriots' drafting record into some statistical model, that model would return the conclusion that a de-emphasis on the QB position is associated with winning lots of games. If a team without a QB tried to similarly de-emphasize the QB position, they'd find that a strategy which works quite well for a team with Tom Brady might not have remotely similar results for a team that's lining up Joey Harrington under center.

 

The other problem with all this is that a team which uses a first round pick on a QB and gets it right (Colts, Peyton Manning) won't have to come back to the QB well again for a very long time! The opposite is of course true of a team whose QB draft picks turn out to be busts.

 

I think that a better way of analyzing teams is to do the following:

1) Break a team down into units. (OL, QB, WR corps, RB, etc.)

2) Grade each unit. (OL = B+, QB = B, etc.)

3) Determine the correlation between the strength of each unit and a team's number of wins. With a large enough data set, this will help show you which positions are most important.

 

Knowing which positions are most important will help you allocate your early draft picks!

 

I think the obvious answer if getting into stats analysis is wiith 40-50 years with 30 teams theres a decent amount of data out there. I think if you made some generalizations and then actually looked at outliers on a case by case, you would find interesting stuff. I'm not saying throw data into a magic machine and pump out or answers for the draft. I'd also go out on a limb and say most early bust have some sort of correlation to late round gems.

 

I'm just amazed with the fact that we haven't done more for the position with our first pick, and it seems like no surprise that outside of 5-10 years we have had some lean times around here.I'd guess some team that spent 4-5 high picks over that time might have some busts but probably a franchise qb or two more then us also, and probably a lot more wins over the course of those 50 years.

 

As for drew and rj - I wasn't correlating there value to a draftee, just saying that they were in fact the product of those picks. Weve invested heavily in the position but not in smart long term answers

[Buffalo Barbarian]

From Rotoworld:

 

Bills GM Buddy Nix likes Auburn QB Cam Newton "a great deal," according to NFL.com's Vic Carucci.

 

"The Bills might very well be inclined to take him in the No. 3 slot," adds Carucci. "I think QB will be prominently on the Bills' radar." Coach Chan Gailey has publicly supported Ryan Fitzpatrick as the 2011 starter, but he's more of a bridge to the future than a legit solution. ESPN's Trent Dilfer predicted Thursday that Newton wouldn't last past the third pick in the draft.

 

Original NFL Source

:thumbdown: :thumbdown:

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

I hope they draft a player that finally makes a difference to the franchise. I will be happy with a star at any position, from QB to punter. It would be really nice to see a player on the roster that is known as one of the best in the game. Shawn Merrimen and maybe Brian Moorman are the the only guys on the roster that I could argue ever had that status.

 

 

[Packerland Bills Fan]

I'm tired of seeing this team stink year after year. It's rare that a team wins a Super Bowl without an elite QB and it's rare that you get an opportunity to draft one. If Newton is one then get him. But don't miss. You figure a year of sitting and watching, then another 3-4 years of given every opportunity to play will mean a lot more losing.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Great, get a QB, just don't take a flyer with the 3rd overall pick on a 1 year college QB.

The kid is a winner. he won the JuCo national Championship. Too. i really dont know if he is going to be the next Rothlisberger(sp) or the next Vince Young. But at 4-12 you got to start taking some chances.

And there are just as many bust Dline man as there are qbs through out draft history.

[CardinalScotts]

Sounds like a classic misinformation campaign.

 

YES how is everyone not all over this. We're not drafting Newton like we weren't gonna take Tebow.

Several "experts" had Tebow as the pick

[BillsVet]

The kid is a winner. he won the JuCo national Championship. Too. i really dont know if he is going to be the next Rothlisberger(sp) or the next Vince Young. But at 4-12 you got to start taking some chances.

And there are just as many bust Dline man as there are qbs through out draft history.

 

Vince Young won a NC at Texas and he became a huge liability to the Titans. College stats are nice for the Heisman voters, but they're not going to tell me if a player will succeed in the NFL. Furthermore, the NFL Draft is not a time when you take huge chances on players who have character concerns like Newton does. Buffalo needs to stick the landing on their pick and leave the first round with a starter from Day 1, not another project who needs time learning how to read defenses that'll sit for a season.

 

If anyone's gun-shy about taking a DL and is worried about the bust rate, well, look at players like Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, B.J. Raji, or Sedrick Ellis. All were top 10 DT's taken and all have or look to be solid if not excellent picks. QB's aren't easy to find, but good personnel people tend to locate them more easily. The jury is still out on ole Buddy, who has proven nothing as a GM one year in. Taking a project like Newton tells me he has no clue whatsoever.

[papazoid]

From Rotoworld:

 

Bills GM Buddy Nix likes Auburn QB Cam Newton "a great deal," according to NFL.com's Vic Carucci.

 

"The Bills might very well be inclined to take him in the No. 3 slot," adds Carucci. "I think QB will be prominently on the Bills' radar." Coach Chan Gailey has publicly supported Ryan Fitzpatrick as the 2011 starter, but he's more of a bridge to the future than a legit solution. ESPN's Trent Dilfer predicted Thursday that Newton wouldn't last past the third pick in the draft.

 

Original NFL Source

 

 

i bet Buddy would have something nice to say about the top 50 players in this draft.....all these comments mean absolutely NOTHING as far as tipping his hand.

[McD]

In what year of this team's existence are they finally going to focus on stopping the run and protecting the QB? WHAT FREAKING YEAR???

 

I agree... the Bills F.O doesn't.

[NoSaint]

YES how is everyone not all over this. We're not drafting Newton like we weren't gonna take Tebow.

Several "experts" had Tebow as the pick

 

Misinformation with what goal? I've asked no less the 5 times in this thread with no answer... Cam is the only player someone might jump in front of us for! Who was the last big trade up in the top three for a non qb? Without players and 2012 picks - who has the ammo?

 

What is to gain from this misinformation? What's hidden behind this smokescreen?

Edited February 13, 2011 by NoSaint

[Rob's House]

I don't know, maybe the 2009 offseason, in which they signed a free agent center and drafted guards in rounds 1 and 2.

 

By the way, isn't it a bit early to be having a conniption over a February report of the team liking a QB?

That's a bit of a stretch. We essentially traded our LT (Peters) for that C/G (Wood) which is a wash as far as the O-line goes. So our additions were Levitre and a journeyman who would be a back-up on most teams.

[Sisyphean Bills]

That's a bit of a stretch. We essentially traded our LT (Peters) for that C/G (Wood) which is a wash as far as the O-line goes. So our additions were Levitre and a journeyman who would be a back-up on most teams.

It's not really "a wash" to exchange a LT for a RG as line positions are not completely interchangeable. It's like saying it's a wash to trade your QB for a good blocking FB because they both line up in the backfield.

[Rob's House]

It's not really "a wash" to exchange a LT for a RG as line positions are not completely interchangeable. It's like saying it's a wash to trade your QB for a good blocking FB because they both line up in the backfield.

I agree positionally. I think we ultimately got a better guy at a position of less importance, so I see it overall as a wash, give or take. The main point I wanted to address was the implication that we added 3 studs to our O-line that year when our net addition was really 1 solid player and 1 glorified back-up.

[purple haze]

 

All this being said, I see no reason whatsoever to take Newton third overall. As someone pointed out, he's a one year wonder. Add to that the questions about his ability to process information quickly and progress through his reads, and you're looking at a QB who has many of the symptoms of a bust. The Bills need a difference maker at third overall, not some QB whose three contributions to the team will likely be the use of the third overall pick, the consumption of lots of Ralph's (comparatively) limited budget, and discouraging the team from drafting some other, better QB either later in the 2011 draft or in 2012.

 

Ability to read defenses is a question all this year's QB have to answer because most of them did not play in a pro style offense where they were required to read defenses. That's not a criticism that applies only to Newton. Also, remember during this time of year that scouts and NFL personnel men will throw out misinformation for different purposes. 1.) To influence opinion on a player they actually want. So they float rumor or lies to attempt to weaken his stock enough to grab him. 2.) To see how the player reacts to the criticism. Does he self-destruct? Does he set out to prove the opinions wrong? Does it affect him at all? Because you hear something about a player does not mean the scouts or personnel men actually believe that about the player.

 

Newton led his JUCO to a national title before he got to Auburn. You might not want to count that, but the scouts will. Why? Because winning is winning. Newton is used to winning. He's used to leading his team successfully. He did it in JUCO then guess what? He did it again at Auburn. Like Buddy Nix said last year, players who have been successful over a period of time usually continue to be successful. Arthur Moats and Danny Batten where small college players who were successful. Neither played in a BCS conference and Nix drafted them so it must not be a pre-requisite that that success comes only in big conferences. Newton happens to have been successful at multiple levels. That's not a one year wonder.

 

Newton screwed up and had to leave Florida. He had to go to college football's minor league. He didn't wash out. He led his team to a national title and he stood out in doing so. His play earned him another chance in the SEC.

 

He outperformed his competition in spring ball and won the starting job. He led his team to comeback wins at home and on the road. In the middle of an adversity filled period when allegations were being made against him and his family on television, newspapers, magazines and blogs, he seemed to play better each week. That's indicative of a strong mind, an ability to focus on his work, an ability to rise to the occasion in spite of external pressure. A lot of people were waiting for him to fail. Many others were hoping he failed. He did not. The bigger the game the better he played: big game player. Got injured in the Championship game. He didn't play his best game by far, but he TOUGHED it out and still led his team to the victory. His teammates obviously followed his lead. They rallied around him and it was easy to see week in and week out. That does not happen if they don't respect him. And remember this is a guy who is in his first year in the program. He had to earn that respect. His strong work ethic has been written about.

 

Call the media day session whatever you will, but it also showed the young man has been working diligently on his skills and has stayed in shape. He did not have to go get a QB coach to help him strengthen his game, but he did. He did not have to take on Warren Moon as an advisor and welcome his feedback, but he did. He's nothing if not serious about football. He's also very polished in front of the camera. He's a guy who has charisma. He has "it." Faces of franchises have this quality.

 

There are questions about any rookie prospect and Newton is no different. But there's a lot to like about Newton outside of 6'6" 250, strong arm, can make all the throws and has good mobility.

Edited February 13, 2011 by purple haze

[ganesh]

Sounds like a classic misinformation campaign.

 

The guys on NFL network like Charles compared Newton to a Ben Rothelisberger in size and ability. If Cam came from a Pro style offense and can learn the game under Ryan Fitzpatrick for two years, I am all for it. The bills would then need to go 2 through 5 on defense and hope that Merriman pans out.

 

It is really a exciting draft in the last ten years....of mediocrity..

[DrDawkinstein]

Ability to read defenses is a question all this year's QB have to answer because most of them did not play in a pro style offense where they were required to read defenses. That's not a criticism that applies only to Newton. Also, remember during this time of year that scouts and NFL personnel men will throw out misinformation for different purposes. 1.) To influence opinion on a player they actually want. So they float rumor or lies to attempt to weaken his stock enough to grab him. 2.) To see how the player reacts to the criticism. Does he self-destruct? Does he set out to prove the opinions wrong? Does it affect him at all? Because you hear something about a player does not mean the scouts or personnel men actually believe that about the player.

 

Newton led his JUCO to a national title before he got to Auburn. You might not want to count that, but the scouts will. Why? Because winning is winning. Newton is used to winning. He's used to leading his team successfully. He did it in JUCO then guess what? He did it again at Auburn. Like Buddy Nix said last year, players who have been successful over a period of time usually continue to be successful. Arthur Moats and Danny Batten where small college players who were successful. Neither played in a BCS conference and Nix drafted them so it must not be a pre-requisite that that success comes only in big conferences. Newton happens to have been successful at multiple levels. That's not a one year wonder.

 

Newton screwed up and had to leave Florida. He had to go to college football's minor league. He didn't wash out. He led his team to a national title and he stood out in doing so. His play earned him another chance in the SEC.

 

He outperformed his competition in spring ball and won the starting job. He led his team to comeback wins at home and on the road. In the middle of an adversity filled period when allegations were being made against him and his family on television, newspapers, magazines and blogs, he seemed to play better each week. That's indicative of a strong mind, an ability to focus on his work, an ability to rise to the occasion in spite of external pressure. A lot of people were waiting for him to fail. Many others were hoping he failed. He did not. The bigger the game the better he played: big game player. Got injured in the Championship game. He didn't play his best game by far, but he TOUGHED it out and still led his team to the victory. His teammates obviously followed his lead. They rallied around him and it was easy to see week in and week out. That does not happen if they don't respect him. And remember this is a guy who is in his first year in the program. He had to earn that respect. His strong work ethic has been written about.

 

Call the media day session whatever you will, but it also showed the young man has been working diligently on his skills and has stayed in shape. He did not have to go get a QB coach to help him strengthen his game, but he did. He did not have to take on Warren Moon as an advisor and welcome his feedback, but he did. He's nothing if not serious about football. He's also very polished in front of the camera. He's a guy who has charisma. He has "it." Faces of franchises have this quality.

 

There are questions about any rookie prospect and Newton is no different. But there's a lot to like about Newton outside of 6'6" 250, strong arm, can make all the throws and has good mobility.

 

Thank. You.

 

100%