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Prospect of the Day


Estro

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A quick background for those unfamiliar with Justin Houston:

 

http://www.georgiadogs.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/houston_justin00.html

 

A youtube video of Houston ballin (he's #42):

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kR0L2RVId90

 

What I like most about Justin Houston is the productivity he's had in the SEC the last 3 years. He contributed his redshirt freshman year, and had 2.5 sacks his 1st year. He stepped it up his sophomore year, comuing up with 15 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks. Then his junior campaign he topped it off with, 67 tackles, 18.5 tackles for loss, and 10 sacks. It's already been mentioned that he played in the best conference in college football so you don't really have to question his production vs. quality of opponents either. What's really impressive is how Houston's been living in opponents backfields. 38% and 28% of his total tackles occured behind the line of scrimmage his sophomore and junior years, respectively.

 

I prefer to see a player who's made gradual improvements throughout their college career compared to those that seem to come out of no where with huge junior or senior years. Not that one is better than the other, but it seems safer to go with a guy who's been doing it for 3-4 years as opposed to the prospect that had 1 monster year after 2-3 years of quiet productivity. After listening to Buddy Nix's drafting philosphies it seems he prefers an extended productive college career too. I also love Houston's size and fluidity. At 6'3", 258 lbs., Houston is the prototype for a 3-4 OLB (Casey Matthews is 6'3", 255 lbs for a reference point). This means Houston has the size and toughness to maintain his ground vs. the running game, but he also has the quicknss and speed to create pressure. He also happens to look pretty fluid dropping back in space, which is another huge plus for an OLB prospect.

 

In the end I don't think Houston is worthy of a Top 10 pick, but I also can't envision a scenario where he'd last until our 2nd round pick. We're a ways out from draft day, but I was surprised to see Noaln Nawrocki, of PFW, didn't include Houston in the 1st round of his first mock draft. I certainly expect that to change, as I think he'd be the perfect player for the Patriots and there's no way he'd slip past their 28th pick. They would maybe even consider him at #17, IMO, as I believe he's a great prospect and his pass rush is exactly what the Patriots are missing. Whether the Bills have to trade down from #3, up from #34, or a combination of the two, I'd love to see Justin Houston in a Bill uniform.

 

A final note, he was suspended the first 2 games of his sophomore year for reasons Georgia never disclosed. Teams will have to check out his past, but the thought was it wasn't too big of a violation and it had nothing to do with failing a drug test, which would've required a minimum 6 game suspension.

 

I'd appreciate hearing from anyone who has an opinion or knows a thing or two about Houston. I'm just starting to familiarize myself with him, but as of now I'm impressed, and I think he'll be a well known commodity come April 28.

Edited by Estro
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He'd look good on the side opposite Moats.

 

 

That, or I know the Bills original plans were to groom Moats as an ILB. At this point, that's a luxury they can't afford, but down the road I wonder if they'd consider moving him back inside.

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Great player, improving stock, a need position... and gone by our 2nd pick. Right now, we have him going to the J-E-T-S at #30 in the first round.

 

I have simulated this and there's no hope for RD#2 Justin Houston to Buffalo. Here's why:

 

If Jets go DE in Round 1 (likely Clayborn) because of the huge early falloff in DE talent, then the Steelers take Justin Houston.

 

Then If the Steelers go with their other need (Tackle) and take OT Tyron Smith or Marcus Cannon, then Green Bay takes Houston.

 

If Green Bay goes with their other need (also Tackle) and takes Smith or Cannon, then New England takes OG Pinkston from Pittsburgh, and we can take Houston.

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