The AJ Green dilemma

[Orton's Arm]

For folks that want to take Green at #3, how do you propose to fix the run defense, which took us out of so many games last year?

You seem to be suggesting that the Bills draft for need. Drafting for need or perceived need will generally cause your team to choose mediocre players at need positions over difference-makers at positions of lesser need.

 

To give an example of this, consider the 2006 draft. Marv and Jauron wanted to start fixing the defense right away, which for them meant taking a DT and a SS with their first two picks. Other positions were considered to be of lesser need. For example, the Bills had just signed Melvin Fowler at center, so center was considered a position of non-need. (And those two--and Jauron in particular--probably considered center to be far less important than DT or SS anyway.)

 

The emphasis on that draft was on need, and on creating a quick improvement to one specific area of the team. (The area it was felt was most urgent to upgrade over the short-term.) That mental approach led the Bills to use the eighth overall pick on a SS who shouldn't have been taken until the second round, and another first round pick on a DT who shouldn't have been taken until after the seventh round.

 

A team with as many holes as the Bills can afford to take a far more flexible and long-term approach to the draft. Rather than, "the run defense must be fixed now, in this draft, starting with our first round pick," why not do the following? First, imagine your team as it should be. A good OL, a franchise QB, a go-to WR, a good defense. Then when there's an opportunity to draft a player who fits into your "should be" vision for the team, you take it. If you have a choice between two or more such players, you take whichever one is more talented, likely to have the better career, and plays a position that's harder to fill in the draft. (For example, it's harder to find a franchise QB than a franchise player at any other position.)

 

The above approach may not produce the kind of instant, one-year improvement in the Bills' run defense or overall record you hope to see. But if that kind of disciplined approach is maintained over the course of several years, and if it's combined with good player evaluation, it will ultimately result in a much better and far more complete football team than the one we have now.

[Bill from NYC]

You seem to be suggesting that the Bills draft for need. Drafting for need or perceived need will generally cause your team to choose mediocre players at need positions over difference-makers at positions of lesser need.

 

To give an example of this, consider the 2006 draft. Marv and Jauron wanted to start fixing the defense right away, which for them meant taking a DT and a SS with their first two picks. Other positions were considered to be of lesser need. For example, the Bills had just signed Melvin Fowler at center, so center was considered a position of non-need. (And those two--and Jauron in particular--probably considered center to be far less important than DT or SS anyway.)

 

The emphasis on that draft was on need, and on creating a quick improvement to one specific area of the team. (The area it was felt was most urgent to upgrade over the short-term.) That mental approach led the Bills to use the eighth overall pick on a SS who shouldn't have been taken until the second round, and another first round pick on a DT who shouldn't have been taken until after the seventh round.

 

A team with as many holes as the Bills can afford to take a far more flexible and long-term approach to the draft. Rather than, "the run defense must be fixed now, in this draft, starting with our first round pick," why not do the following? First, imagine your team as it should be. A good OL, a franchise QB, a go-to WR, a good defense. Then when there's an opportunity to draft a player who fits into your "should be" vision for the team, you take it. If you have a choice between two or more such players, you take whichever one is more talented, likely to have the better career, and plays a position that's harder to fill in the draft. (For example, it's harder to find a franchise QB than a franchise player at any other position.)

 

The above approach may not produce the kind of instant, one-year improvement in the Bills' run defense or overall record you hope to see. But if that kind of disciplined approach is maintained over the course of several years, and if it's combined with good player evaluation, it will ultimately result in a much better and far more complete football team than the one we have now.

 

You speak of holes, but there is something far more important. The Bills are small and weak at almost every position. Kyle Williams, our best defender, is a small nose tackle and will never be able to occupy blockers ala Ted Washington. Bell is a small, weak LT. Sadly, the list goes on.

If they keep using our best resources on skill positions, the Bills will remain small and weak. They will continue to forfeit home field advantage and lose.

 

Sometimes we need to put stats aside and look at what is staring us in the face. You and I both know why this team sucks. Now is the chance to build a big, strong football team that can play in the elements. One that doesn't get shoved around at will. If it takes trading down so be it, but we have to strengthen the OL and front 7.

 

If they draft Green at #3, it will be a ploy to sell tickets. If they draft Peterson at #3, they are just complete idiots and will never, ever build a winning team.

 

It really is that simple.

[aristocrat]

i love looking at the az cardinals 2004 draft...fitzgerald, dansby, dockett, would dream of a draft like that. the cardinals set up that superbowl team with that draft...then they nailed a couple more first rounders with cromartie, rolle, levi brown while getting production out of breaston and doucet. this is how you build a team and once they get a qb look out.

[1billsfan]

You speak of holes, but there is something far more important. The Bills are small and weak at almost every position. Kyle Williams, our best defender, is a small nose tackle and will never be able to occupy blockers ala Ted Washington. Bell is a small, weak LT. Sadly, the list goes on.

If they keep using our best resources on skill positions, the Bills will remain small and weak. They will continue to forfeit home field advantage and lose.

 

Sometimes we need to put stats aside and look at what is staring us in the face. You and I both know why this team sucks. Now is the chance to build a big, strong football team that can play in the elements. One that doesn't get shoved around at will. If it takes trading down so be it, but we have to strengthen the OL and front 7.

 

If they draft Green at #3, it will be a ploy to sell tickets. If they draft Peterson at #3, they are just complete idiots and will never, ever build a winning team.

 

It really is that simple.

 

 

So if the Panthers take Fairley, and either Green or Peterson is there at the Bills #3 pick and there is no trade option on the table, you take who over them...

[Wayne Cubed]

So what if the front office takes one? Would that mean we might need it, or that it was bpa in there opinion? Just curious, seeing as the board doesn't make the pick.

 

I think it means BPA, Buddy has stated numerous times that he believe in taking talent and proven players.

[Mr. WEO]

So if the Panthers take Fairley, and either Green or Peterson is there at the Bills #3 pick and there is no trade option on the table, you take who over them...

You never, ever take a CB at number 3.

[CookieG]

You seem to be suggesting that the Bills draft for need. Drafting for need or perceived need will generally cause your team to choose mediocre players at need positions over difference-makers at positions of lesser need.

 

To give an example of this, consider the 2006 draft. Marv and Jauron wanted to start fixing the defense right away, which for them meant taking a DT and a SS with their first two picks. Other positions were considered to be of lesser need. For example, the Bills had just signed Melvin Fowler at center, so center was considered a position of non-need. (And those two--and Jauron in particular--probably considered center to be far less important than DT or SS anyway.)

 

The emphasis on that draft was on need, and on creating a quick improvement to one specific area of the team. (The area it was felt was most urgent to upgrade over the short-term.) That mental approach led the Bills to use the eighth overall pick on a SS who shouldn't have been taken until the second round, and another first round pick on a DT who shouldn't have been taken until after the seventh round.

 

A team with as many holes as the Bills can afford to take a far more flexible and long-term approach to the draft. Rather than, "the run defense must be fixed now, in this draft, starting with our first round pick," why not do the following? First, imagine your team as it should be. A good OL, a franchise QB, a go-to WR, a good defense. Then when there's an opportunity to draft a player who fits into your "should be" vision for the team, you take it. If you have a choice between two or more such players, you take whichever one is more talented, likely to have the better career, and plays a position that's harder to fill in the draft. (For example, it's harder to find a franchise QB than a franchise player at any other position.)

 

The above approach may not produce the kind of instant, one-year improvement in the Bills' run defense or overall record you hope to see. But if that kind of disciplined approach is maintained over the course of several years, and if it's combined with good player evaluation, it will ultimately result in a much better and far more complete football team than the one we have now.

 

They considered Whitner an elite talent, that's why they drafted him at 8. He was supposed to be the Troy P, Bob Sanders guy they were looking for.

 

Nagata was passed over due to the uber stupid theory of "he doesn't fit our scheme".

 

The problem was both of the top DT's were off the board towards the end of the round, and they considered McCargo the best before a big drop off, as well as his quick first step being "better fitted for our scheme" (there it is again.).

 

The problem the Bills have had is...when they are evaluating elite prospects, they always gravitate towards the little guy. There's always that little guy with the measurables that are too good to pass up. It has been going on for 10 years.

 

It comes partly due to not knowing what makes a big guy elite. I think some just look at it as "well, he's 6'5" and 300 lbs., he should be able to play." It doesn't work that way. That's why we keep choosing mediocre big guys in later rounds and watch them rarely come through.

 

If you watch a Dareus, you see a guy with an extremely powerful lower body coupled with the first step quickness that isn't seen every day. More importantly, you've got a guy with lateral quickness for someone that is 300+. Suh's lateral speed may be once in a decade, but I can say that Dareus' lateral quickness doesn't come along every year. He's also a guy with the versatility to move easily from DT to DE. That type of versatility doesn't come along every year either.

 

Based on physical gifts, he's far from mediocre, and on physical talent alone, I'd use the word "elite".

 

It'd be nice if we took an elite talent in a big guy for a change.

[1billsfan]

You never, ever take a CB at number 3.

 

 

I'm still waiting on a name from someone. Who are you taking over Green or Peterson?

[Orton's Arm]

You speak of holes, but there is something far more important. The Bills are small and weak at almost every position. Kyle Williams, our best defender, is a small nose tackle and will never be able to occupy blockers ala Ted Washington. Bell is a small, weak LT. Sadly, the list goes on.

If they keep using our best resources on skill positions, the Bills will remain small and weak. They will continue to forfeit home field advantage and lose.

 

Sometimes we need to put stats aside and look at what is staring us in the face. You and I both know why this team sucks. Now is the chance to build a big, strong football team that can play in the elements. One that doesn't get shoved around at will. If it takes trading down so be it, but we have to strengthen the OL and front 7.

 

If they draft Green at #3, it will be a ploy to sell tickets. If they draft Peterson at #3, they are just complete idiots and will never, ever build a winning team.

 

It really is that simple.

I agree with a lot of what you've written. The Bills' OL clearly needs improvement, as does its defensive front-7. If a given player is too small and weak to play his position effectively, I'd consider that position a hole. It's very difficult to get away with holes on your OL in particular, because the defense will exploit those holes to get to your QB or RB.

 

Not only does this team have a lot of holes, but it's almost completely lacking in difference makers. I categorize difference makers into three different categories:

 

1. If a player can still be productive at a high level while using up two of the other team's players, he's a category 1 difference maker. Bruce Smith could still get sacks when being double-teamed. Jerry Rice could still be a very productive part of the passing game when being double-covered. Both players are category 1 difference makers.

 

2. If a player can, on his own, largely offset someone else's category 1 difference maker, he's a category 2 difference maker. Tony Boselli was able to negate the impact of Bruce Smith without help from his teammates. A guy like Revis can single-cover the other team's best WR and keep him under control throughout the game. Players like that are category 2 difference makers.

 

3. If a player exerts the same impact on a game as a category 1 or category 2 difference maker, but doesn't play a position which lends itself to those first two categories, he's a category 3 difference maker. Joe Montana falls into this category.

 

The Bills' first round pick in this draft needs to be a difference maker. If it's a defensive front-7 player, it has to be a guy who can get to the quarterback even when being double-teamed. If it's a WR, it needs to be a guy who can be very productive despite consistent double coverage. Obviously the pick shouldn't be a DB, because he'll just go first contract and out. Nor should the Bills seriously consider a RB. But other than that, the Bills should be more focused on getting a difference-maker than on filling one specific position.

 

If (for example) Bowers turns into the next Bruce Smith, and if Green becomes the next Larry Fitzgerald, I'd rather have Bowers. (Though I'd put a very high value on both players.) The problem with this is that Bowers only has one really good season under his belt, whereas Green has produced at a high level for three seasons.

 

What should the Bills do if they decide that they're much more confident of Green becoming a difference-maker than they are about any of the available defensive front-7 players becoming difference makers? If you want to add a good, solid football player to your front-7, but who isn't good enough to be considered a difference maker, you can do that later in the draft. You don't need a first round pick!

 

But I don't like the idea of trading down to increase the pace at which guys like that are added. Your opportunities to add difference-makers are very limited, as shown by the fact that with the possible exception of Kyle Williams, the Bills don't have anyone on either side of the ball I'd label a difference-maker. That's something that has to change if this team is going to get serious about winning some Super Bowls.

 

Let's say the Bills are on a four year plan, with last year having been year 1 of that plan. If they use one first round pick on a difference maker for the next three years, then at the end they'll have three difference-makers. That's probably not enough. But if they use their picks in rounds 2 - 7 wisely, they'll have the chance to fill their existing holes with good, solid football players. Guys like Moats. If their OL and defensive front-7 picks are focused on the kinds of bigger, stronger players you tend to favor, then that will help gradually solve the problem you identified.

 

What I'm getting at is that over the next three years, the lack of competent football players in the front-7 and on the OL will be a much easier problem to solve than the lack of elite difference makers. Where possible, first round picks should be used to try to solve the latter problem; with picks in later rounds used on the former.

[1billsfan]

They considered Whitner an elite talent, that's why they drafted him at 8. He was supposed to be the Troy P, Bob Sanders guy they were looking for.

 

Nagata was passed over due to the uber stupid theory of "he doesn't fit our scheme".

 

The problem was both of the top DT's were off the board towards the end of the round, and they considered McCargo the best before a big drop off, as well as his quick first step being "better fitted for our scheme" (there it is again.).

 

The problem the Bills have had is...when they are evaluating elite prospects, they always gravitate towards the little guy. There's always that little guy with the measurables that are too good to pass up. It has been going on for 10 years.

 

It comes partly due to not knowing what makes a big guy elite. I think some just look at it as "well, he's 6'5" and 300 lbs., he should be able to play." It doesn't work that way. That's why we keep choosing mediocre big guys in later rounds and watch them rarely come through.

 

If you watch a Dareus, you see a guy with an extremely powerful lower body coupled with the first step quickness that isn't seen every day. More importantly, you've got a guy with lateral quickness for someone that is 300+. Suh's lateral speed may be once in a decade, but I can say that Dareus' lateral quickness doesn't come along every year. He's also a guy with the versatility to move easily from DT to DE. That type of versatility doesn't come along every year either.

 

Based on physical gifts, he's far from mediocre, and on physical talent alone, I'd use the word "elite".

 

It'd be nice if we took an elite talent in a big guy for a change.

 

 

I think you're confusing what "elite" is. Every draft has a drop off somewhere in the first top ten picks from "elite" player types to "very good" player types. For instance, last year it was after Bradford, Suh and McCoy. Dareus is out of that "elite" group level. You factor in the bust level among defensive big men selected in the top ten and concerns of weight and stamina issues when a rookie is starting out at 300 (and he's not that tall), well then you should have your decision already made and select the "elite" player that you're in position to take.

[CookieG]

I think you're confusing what "elite" is. Every draft has a drop off somewhere in the first top ten picks from "elite" player types to "very good" player types. For instance, last year it was after Bradford, Suh and McCoy. Dareus is out of that "elite" group level. You factor in the bust level among defensive big men selected in the top ten and concerns of weight and stamina issues when a rookie is starting out at 300 (and he's not that tall), well then you should have your decision already made and select the "elite" player that you're in position to take.

 

No, I don't think I am. On the other hand, I question whether some know what makes a player elite, outside of what they read in draft reports.

[1billsfan]

No, I don't think I am. On the other hand, I question whether some know what makes a player elite, outside of what they read in draft reports.

 

Obviously it's all conjecture until they tee it up. But judging on last year they nailed Bradford and Suh.

[MyHorseAteTheKid]

What if Nick Fairley has been taken, AJ Green is still sitting there at #3 and no one wants to trade into the Bills pick?

 

This is a major dilemma, for I think that the Bills will certainly rue the day they select marginal talents like Miller, Dareus or whomever over Green.

 

If this scenario plays out I hope that the Bills select the BPA Green because of the bust (mediocre player) potential of all the other guys we would select over him. We already have a Von Miller type in Moats and we do have an early second round pick where there will certainly be a starting ILB for us.

 

I keep thinking about all those wide outs that Detroit drafted while Mitt Millan was in charge... None of them did much to improve the team and some were wasted picks like "can't miss" Roy Williams.. Not to mention the Bills top wide out picks from the past.. I'll pass on a wide reciever in the first round and take a Big Body who can run stuff or can pass block!

[Mr. WEO]

I'm still waiting on a name from someone. Who are you taking over Green or Peterson?

Bowers, perhaps. I would take Cam Newton before any CB. in the first round id just nonsense. Can't help this team.

[Koufax]

I keep thinking about all those wide outs that Detroit drafted while Mitt Millan was in charge... None of them did much to improve the team and some were wasted picks like "can't miss" Roy Williams.. Not to mention the Bills top wide out picks from the past.. I'll pass on a wide reciever in the first round and take a Big Body who can run stuff or can pass block!

 

Ummm...the reason that they were bad picks is that they were players who didn't do very well and were not BPA. Calvin Johnson was a great pick because he was a great player. All things being equal and I would love a difference maker in the front 7, and I'm hoping Dareus grades out to really be a more elite player than we think. But if Green is on the board and better than anybody else, you have to take him. And with the Fitz passing attack in year two, he is likely to be able have an immediate impact.

 

I don't think Peterson will live up to the hype, and I haven't seen enough Green to know if he really is the Calvin Johnson level to deserve his current hype. But we have to get an impact player whether it is a position that excites us on draft day or not.

[1B4IDie]

I think you're confusing what "elite" is. Every draft has a drop off somewhere in the first top ten picks from "elite" player types to "very good" player types. For instance, last year it was after Bradford, Suh and McCoy. Dareus is out of that "elite" group level. You factor in the bust level among defensive big men selected in the top ten and concerns of weight and stamina issues when a rookie is starting out at 300 (and he's not that tall), well then you should have your decision already made and select the "elite" player that you're in position to take.

McCoy was not in the conversation for anyones' 1st round pick.

You're confusing draftnick talk with NFL reality.

NFL reality is you can't find players or get the opportunity to draft players like Marcell Dareaus very often.

Draftnick hype is the idea of taking a perimeter player with the #3 overall pick.

 

(not to mention saying that he is already NFL size is a red flag, is really an amazing statement. You should work for a cable new network or on the Hill that is some world class spin. A tip of the hat, youngman)

Edited February 7, 2011 by Why So Serious?

[Phlegm Alley]

If they think that AJ Green is as good, if not better than Larry Fitzgerald or Clavin Johnson, you take him. I know that WR is not the greatest position of need, however as others have pointed out, if you draft at a position of need, and not BPA, you run the risk of "reaching" for a guy.

 

From what I have read, Green is one of the best WR prospects to come out in years. You can get good value later in the draft with other WRs, like Baldwin, whom Wannstedt recruited and fits the type of WR Buddy covets (Vincent Jackson).

 

But they have shown in year one of this regime that they will take BPA.

[CookieG]

Obviously it's all conjecture until they tee it up. But judging on last year they nailed Bradford and Suh.

 

Good. I nailed it on Bradford and Suh too, if it makes you feel any better.

 

 

(not to mention saying that he is already NFL size is a red flag, is really an amazing statement. You should work for a cable new network or on the Hill that is some world class spin. A tip of the hat, youngman)

 

I thought the 300 lb. statement was kinda strange too. Almost sounds like something Dick Jauron would say.

[Orton's Arm]

They considered Whitner an elite talent, that's why they drafted him at 8. He was supposed to be the Troy P, Bob Sanders guy they were looking for.

 

Nagata was passed over due to the uber stupid theory of "he doesn't fit our scheme".

 

The problem was both of the top DT's were off the board towards the end of the round, and they considered McCargo the best before a big drop off, as well as his quick first step being "better fitted for our scheme" (there it is again.).

 

The problem the Bills have had is...when they are evaluating elite prospects, they always gravitate towards the little guy. There's always that little guy with the measurables that are too good to pass up. It has been going on for 10 years.

 

It comes partly due to not knowing what makes a big guy elite. I think some just look at it as "well, he's 6'5" and 300 lbs., he should be able to play." It doesn't work that way. That's why we keep choosing mediocre big guys in later rounds and watch them rarely come through.

 

If you watch a Dareus, you see a guy with an extremely powerful lower body coupled with the first step quickness that isn't seen every day. More importantly, you've got a guy with lateral quickness for someone that is 300+. Suh's lateral speed may be once in a decade, but I can say that Dareus' lateral quickness doesn't come along every year. He's also a guy with the versatility to move easily from DT to DE. That type of versatility doesn't come along every year either.

 

Based on physical gifts, he's far from mediocre, and on physical talent alone, I'd use the word "elite".

 

It'd be nice if we took an elite talent in a big guy for a change.

I'll grant that the Bills thought very highly of Whitner. But their decision to take him eighth overall was not due solely to the bad player evaluation that implies. They went into the draft with the mindset that they needed to come away with a SS and a DT with their first two picks. That right there gave them much less flexibility than a team with as many holes as the Bills should have had.

 

The benefit of flexibility is the following. Let's say you're focused in on position A, and the best player there is a 70. But there's a guy at position B who's a 90. The flexible team will take player B; the team that's dialed into a few specific needs will take player A. Over the course of several years, having a bunch of 70s on your roster (who could have and should have been 90s) will create a talent gap between your team and the best teams in the league.

 

You correctly pointed out another reason why Marv's drafting approach lacked flexibility: players were chosen to fit the Tampa 2 scheme. Vic Carucci noted that he personally didn't have Whitner rated as a first round talent, but a team that ran a Tampa 2 could have a significantly higher grade on him. Likewise, McCargo was also seen as a good fit for the Tampa 2.

 

Marv and Jauron went into that draft looking for a SS and a DT. But not just any old SS or DT: they had to be a specific type of SS and DT to fit into the Tampa 2! Because they gave themselves so little room to adapt to the actual player talent available, they set themselves up for failure.

[1billsfan]

McCoy was not in the conversation for anyones' 1st round pick.

You're confusing draftnick talk with NFL reality.

NFL reality is you can't find players or get the opportunity to draft players like Marcell Dareaus very often.

Draftnick hype is the idea of taking a perimeter player with the #3 overall pick.

 

(not to mention saying that he is already NFL size is a red flag, is really an amazing statement. You should work for a cable new network or on the Hill that is some world class spin. A tip of the hat, youngman)

 

What are you talking about? The top three "elite" type players in last years draft were Bradford, Suh and McCoy.

 

This year, it appears that there's again only three "elite" player types which are shaping up to be Fairley, Green and Peterson. That doesn't mean that Dareus won't be an elite player, it's just that he doesn't project to be an elite player. So with the #3 pick overall, the Bills should avoid drafting for need over one of the "elite" type of players. You should never ever use a #3 pick on a reach/need player. That's NFL reality.

 

As for my 300lb comment…sorry but with these big fat men, I worry about the Mike Williams syndrome. Just another reason I'd take the elite playmaking athletes in Green or Peterson over Dareus.