The AJ Green dilemma

[1billsfan]

No impact? First, I think that most would agree that Green is a better player than Lee, and is more likely to get open when double teamed. But forcing a double team or getting Revis on him does make our team better. We aren't playing fantasy football, we are trying to win games.

 

I would love for Green not to be the right pick. I would love if upon the careful studying of talent, there is a front-7 guy who we think is the best player, or close enough. But right now I don't see another A talent like Green making it to us. And I don't want a B talent with the pick because we need it. If it ends up being A and A-, go ahead, take the LB/DE/DT. But I want an elite player at #3, not just a solid contributor. If the most elite player plays WR or DB, I will be disappointed that that is the reality, but happier if we pick that player and not pass on him.

 

As for the Detroit WR vs Suh stuff, others have covered that pretty well, but Calvin Johnson is a big part of what the Lions are doing. I think they would pick Suh over him if they were in the same draft, but the real Detroit problem, much like the Bills, was not getting great players before Calvin Johnson, with picks that should be able to get great players.

 

 

This sums up perfectly how I feel about the Bills' dilemma of picking BPA against need at #3. I see three players that are A types (Fairley, Green, Peterson) and the fall off to the next level of talent is too significant to not draft one of them if a trade is not in the cards.

 

 

For the person who thinks that Peterson isn't close to being a "star" and has stiff hips, way wrong...

 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1632296

 

From the clips I've seen, the kid looks like the next Deion Sanders.

[ajzepp]

I don't remember EVER wanting a WR with this high of a pick, but while I don't necessarily advocate for Green with our first rounder, I wouldn't be upset if we took the kid. He is by every definition a total gamer. He will lay out for a pass that seems uncatchable and bring it down like a champ. He plays big in big games, and he has a winners mentality. If we still had Trent or JP at QB, that would be different. But a guy like Fitzy has proved that he knows how to get the ball to our wideouts, so Green might really help this offense to score some points. That being said, I'm still a defense first type of guy, so I'd prefer we focus on the front 7.

[aristocrat]

For folks that want to take Green at #3, how do you propose to fix the run defense, which took us out of so many games last year?

 

we're gonna run a fantasy team and hope the other team's rb's tire themselves out.

[truth on hold]

This sums up perfectly how I feel about the Bills' dilemma of picking BPA against need at #3. I see three players that are A types (Fairley, Green, Peterson) and the fall off to the next level of talent is too significant to not draft one of them if a trade is not in the cards.

 

 

For the person who thinks that Peterson isn't close to being a "star" and has stiff hips, way wrong...

 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1632296

 

From the clips I've seen, the kid looks like the next Deion Sanders.

he's certainly a great athlete. Id call him about 2/3rds Deion for his closing speed, and 1/3rd Revis for his technique. I think he's little taller than both of them, so maybe thats where the "stiff hips" perception comes from, moves a bit more like a Cromartie. I like him, but one of the problems assessing a top DBs quality of work is you dont get to see as many plays because they dont get thrown at. Whereas a top WR of course sees a lot of balls thrown his way. From what Ive seen, Green impresses me as the more complete player, and more mature too.

Edited February 6, 2011 by Joe_the_6_pack

[bobobonators]

more stats against drafting a WR at #3:

 

top 5 2010 receiving leaders by yds:

1. Brandon LLoyd: 4th round

2. Roddy White: 1st round - 27th pick

3. REg Wayne: 1st round - 30th pick

4. Greg Jennings: 2nd round

5. Mike Wallace: 3rd round

 

2009:

1. Andre Johnson: 1st round, 3rd overall (no playoffs)

2. Wes Welker: undrafted

3. Miles Austin: undrafted

4. Sidney Rice: 2nd round

5. Randy Moss: 1st round, 21st

 

2008:

1. Andre Johnson: 1st round, 3rd overall (no playoffs)

2. Larry Fitzgerald: 1st round, 3rd overall

3. Steve Smith: 3rd round

4. Roddy White: 1st round - 27th pick

5. Calvin Johnson: 1st round - 2nd pick (no playoffs)

 

2007:

1. Reg Wayne: 27th pick

2. Randy Moss: 21st pick

3. Ochocinco: 2nd round

4. Fitzgerald: 3rd overall

5. Owens: 3rd round

 

2006:

1. Ochocinco: 3rd round

2. Marvin Harrison: 1st round, 19th

3. Roy Williams: 1st round, 7th (no playoffs)

4. Reg Wayne: 1st round, 30th

5. Donald Driver: 7th round

 

Are these "bogus parameters" too? I'd keep on going, but i'm tired of proving my point.

 

Out of all those players, only 3 have been drafted in the top 5 overall(Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, and Andre Johnson) and only has been on a successful team: Fitzgerald. And don't come back with the "1st round argument"...lets not compare a player drafted in the top 5 of the first round to one drafted at 20+.

 

Feel free to keep on going with the search, b/c I'm done with it. Drafting a WR at #3 is a WASTE. WR is COMPLETELY dependant on the QB and OL to have success, and to make matters worse, you have to pay this completely dependant player premier money..something the bills are ill-equipped to do.

Edited February 6, 2011 by bobobonators

[Wayne Cubed]

I'll say it again. The Bills drafted DL with 2 of their first 3 picks last year. Not to mention they added Dwan Edwards through free agency.

 

I think people are wrongly analyzing where the problem is with the Bills defense. The purpose of a DL in a 3-4 is to eat up blockers so that the LB's can make the tackles. And therein lies the problem. The Bills don't have any ELITE level LB's. WIth the #3 pick in the draft you don't take a LB.

 

If the Bills draft a DL it will end up being a reach for need, which when picking 3rd isn't something a team should be doing. All these players played DT in college and the Bills would be moving them to DE where there role on the defense changes. I'm sorry to say but none of these guys are Bruce Smith, and aren't going to come in and play DE like he did. Hell they aren't even on the talent level of Suh.

 

When picking this high in the draft you pick ELITE level talent. Not the 2nd best player at a position because thats what you think your team needs. Sorry to say but the Bills are far away from being a great team and the DL in this years draft aren't going to change that IMO, especially if we are picking the 2nd best one.

 

The Bills are severly lacking talent on both sides of the ball. If the #3 pick comes up and Green is there, the Bills would be wise to take him.

 

BTW I don't get exactly how this would be a "Luxury" pick. Luxury is sitting back in the draft, because your team is already good, and picking players that will help your team to remain good. You could call that being "Comfortable" with the team you got. Thats "Luxury."

[1billsfan]

 

Are these "bogus parameters" too? I'd keep on going, but i'm tired of proving my point.

 

Out of all those players, only 3 have been drafted in the top 5 overall(Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, and Andre Johnson) and only has been on a successful team: Fitzgerald. And don't come back with the "1st round argument"...lets not compare a player drafted in the top 5 of the first round to one drafted at 20+.

 

Feel free to keep on going with the search, b/c I'm done with it. Drafting a WR at #3 is a WASTE. WR is COMPLETELY dependant on the QB and OL to have success, and to make matters worse, you have to pay this completely dependant player premier money..something the bills are ill-equipped to do.

 

 

None of that "proves" anything. Larry Fitzgerald was one all-time Superbowl passing play away from winning a championship for one of the most losing franchises in NFL history.

 

None of this provides any reason why the Bills should pass over Green (or Peterson) to select a much less talented player because of need.

 

It's just useless information because when you are this high in the draft, your easy job is to select the "star" player over the "solid" player no matter what.

[Wayne Cubed]

and to make matters worse, you have to pay this completely dependant player premier money..something the bills are ill-equipped to do.

 

IDK if you are aware or not but there is little thing going on right now called the CBA(which is expiring in march), which with the new one they want to introduce a rookie pay scale into. So the Bills might not end up paying this so called "premier" money.

 

Not to mention the fact that even if there wasn't a rookie pay scale, the Bills are picking 3rd, they are going to have to pay this so-called "premier" money to whatever player you think they should take anyways.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

If you're in charge of selecting players this high in the draft and you're left with the decision to go for need player verses best player/superstar material, then yes you select the superstar player Green over much lesser talents in Dareus and Miller.

 

I'll say it again, they will rue the day they select one of those guys over Green. My hope is that someone does want to trade with the Bills and give them an extra second rounder.

 

If Green is such a superstar, why do we feel he will be there at #3? (Not intended as sarcasm - I'd really like to understand the reasoning here)

 

C'mon guys, I'm sure he's a very good player. I'm equally sure there are very good players who will be available later in the 1st round.

 

It would obviously have screwed up our team for years to have taken some of the DL or OL available to us at 9. Brandon Graham, Jason Pierre-Paul, Tyson Alualu, Davis, Bulaga, Pouncey -- OH, the humanity! <-------------sarcasm

[NoSaint]

I'll say it again. The Bills drafted DL with 2 of their first 3 picks last year. Not to mention they added Dwan Edwards through free agency.

 

I think people are wrongly analyzing where the problem is with the Bills defense. The purpose of a DL in a 3-4 is to eat up blockers so that the LB's can make the tackles. And therein lies the problem. The Bills don't have any ELITE level LB's. WIth the #3 pick in the draft you don't take a LB.

 

If the Bills draft a DL it will end up being a reach for need, which when picking 3rd isn't something a team should be doing.

 

I'm confused- we don't need one but if we take one, it's a reach for need?

[1billsfan]

If Green is such a superstar, why do we feel he will be there at #3? (Not intended as sarcasm - I'd really like to understand the reasoning here)

 

C'mon guys, I'm sure he's a very good player. I'm equally sure there are very good players who will be available later in the 1st round.

 

It would obviously have screwed up our team for years to have taken some of the DL or OL available to us at 9. Brandon Graham, Jason Pierre-Paul, Tyson Alualu, Davis, Bulaga, Pouncey -- OH, the humanity! <-------------sarcasm

 

 

Oh please, you're going to try to pretend that Pouncey or Alualu were hands down BPA at #9 on Feb, 6th 2011??????????????? Give us all a break with ridiculous post draft revisionist history fella.

 

Seriously, doesn't get any cheaper than that.

 

Lock it in now Nostradamus, (fill in the blank) will be a better selection by the Buffalo Bills at #3 than either AJ Green or Patrick Peterson (assuming Nick Fairley is gone of course).

Edited February 6, 2011 by 1billsfan

[K-9]

more stats against drafting a WR at #3:

 

top 5 2010 receiving leaders by yds:

1. Brandon LLoyd: 4th round

2. Roddy White: 1st round - 27th pick

3. REg Wayne: 1st round - 30th pick

4. Greg Jennings: 2nd round

5. Mike Wallace: 3rd round

 

2009:

1. Andre Johnson: 1st round, 3rd overall (no playoffs)

2. Wes Welker: undrafted

3. Miles Austin: undrafted

4. Sidney Rice: 2nd round

5. Randy Moss: 1st round, 21st

 

2008:

1. Andre Johnson: 1st round, 3rd overall (no playoffs)

2. Larry Fitzgerald: 1st round, 3rd overall

3. Steve Smith: 3rd round

4. Roddy White: 1st round - 27th pick

5. Calvin Johnson: 1st round - 2nd pick (no playoffs)

 

2007:

1. Reg Wayne: 27th pick

2. Randy Moss: 21st pick

3. Ochocinco: 2nd round

4. Fitzgerald: 3rd overall

5. Owens: 3rd round

 

2006:

1. Ochocinco: 3rd round

2. Marvin Harrison: 1st round, 19th

3. Roy Williams: 1st round, 7th (no playoffs)

4. Reg Wayne: 1st round, 30th

5. Donald Driver: 7th round

 

Are these "bogus parameters" too? I'd keep on going, but i'm tired of proving my point.

 

Out of all those players, only 3 have been drafted in the top 5 overall(Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, and Andre Johnson) and only has been on a successful team: Fitzgerald. And don't come back with the "1st round argument"...lets not compare a player drafted in the top 5 of the first round to one drafted at 20+.

 

Feel free to keep on going with the search, b/c I'm done with it. Drafting a WR at #3 is a WASTE. WR is COMPLETELY dependant on the QB and OL to have success, and to make matters worse, you have to pay this completely dependant player premier money..something the bills are ill-equipped to do.

 

What's most interesting about your research is that's EXACTLY how NFL teams decide when to draft what position in every draft. Good work!

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Wayne Cubed]

I'm confused- we don't need one but if we take one, it's a reach for need?

 

Im saying IMO, we don't need one. But for all the people on this board who say we NEED one, with that pick it would be a reach.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Rubbish. Johnson is one of the main reasons they're starting to turn things around. And no defender in this year's draft has shown any where near the promise Suh did in college. Green is the Suh of the 2011 draft.

 

btw, if you think Dline is such a lock as a high pick, what do you say about Patulski, Dokes and McCargo?

 

I have to say that the Bills talent evaluation has sucked scummy dishwater for the last decade. We should have taken Nick Mangold in 2006.

I also have to say that going back to 1972 and 1977 seems rather arbitrary and pointless. What do you say about Bruce Smith and Carl Eller?

[1B4IDie]

This sums up perfectly how I feel about the Bills' dilemma of picking BPA against need at #3. I see three players that are A types (Fairley, Green, Peterson) and the fall off to the next level of talent is too significant to not draft one of them if a trade is not in the cards.

 

 

For the person who thinks that Peterson isn't close to being a "star" and has stiff hips, way wrong...

 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1632296

 

From the clips I've seen, the kid looks like the next Deion Sanders.

Just because you're misinformed doesn't mean that everyone elae is misinformed.

Marcell Dareus is a "A" level talent and is most likely a better more NFL ready player and will most likely have a better more impactful career and more difficult to find an equivalent than a WR.

 

Please I've read every report on Peterson and use a scouting service I have been using for a couple decades called "My Two Eye Balls" there isnt really anything special, or once in a decade type of talent. At 6'1 225 he is going struggle reacting in coverage at the NFL level.

I'll bet he ends up converting to safety in less than 3 years.

Edited February 6, 2011 by Why So Serious?

[truth on hold]

What's most interesting about your research is that's EXACTLY how NFL teams decide when to draft what position in every draft. Good work!

 

GO BILLS!!!

Completely bogus analysis as Ive demonstrated earlier. Also, if you're drafted in the top 10 that almost always means you're going to a worse team than someone who's drafted later in Rd1. So trying to prove that a WR isnt worth a top 10 pick because a WR drafted later in the 1st round was on a super bowl winning team earlier, is mostly explaind by this selection bias.

[K-9]

Completely bogus analysis as Ive demonstrated earlier. Also, if you're drafted in the top 10 that almost always means you're going to a worse team than someone who's drafted later in Rd1. So trying to prove that a WR isnt worth a top 10 pick because a WR drafted later in the 1st round was on a super bowl winning team earlier, is mostly explaind by this selection bias.

 

Do you really not see the sarcasm in my post? I suppose I could have just told ole' bobo that his chart, while deserving of points for his effort to research it, has absolutely no basis in determining why or why not a particular position should be drafted at a particular spot in the draft. None whatsoever. Can you imagine if teams actually DID you this logic when selecting players?

 

GO BILLS!!!

[1billsfan]

Just because you're misinformed doesn't mean that everyone elae is misinformed.

Marcell Dareus is a "A" level talent and is most likely a better more NFL ready player and will most likely have a better more impactful career and more difficult to find an equivalent than a WR.

 

Please I've read every report on Peterson and use a scouting service I have been using for a couple decades called "My Two Eye Balls" there isnt really anything special, or once in a decade type of talent. At 6'1 225 he is going struggle reacting in coverage at the NFL level.

I'll bet he ends up converting to safety in less than 3 years.

 

 

Yeah right!...LOL What you said is flat out foolishness, did you read the CBS Sports report I linked on him? The kid has blazing speed with all the athleticism needed to play corner at an NFL elite level. Doesn't even matter because he'll be probably be picked by either the Panthers or Broncos anyways. But for you to say that he's nothing special is complete BS.

[NoSaint]

Im saying IMO, we don't need one. But for all the people on this board who say we NEED one, with that pick it would be a reach.

 

So what if the front office takes one? Would that mean we might need it, or that it was bpa in there opinion? Just curious, seeing as the board doesn't make the pick.

[1B4IDie]

Yeah right!...LOL What you said is flat out foolishness, did you read the CBS Sports report I linked on him? The kid has blazing speed with all the athleticism needed to play corner at an NFL elite level. Doesn't even matter because he'll be probably be picked by either the Panthers or Broncos anyways. But for you to say that he's nothing special is complete BS.

I have read every CBS report of every top 50 player.

I have also watched Peterson play in actual games.

I stand by my statement he will end up playing Safety in the NFL. Only time will tell.

 

Don't just take my word for it

" You generally don’t find a corner with this type of bulk, and there is a reason for this.  It is difficult for a corner, who has to read quarterbacks and react to wideouts, to be fluid enough in his hips and change direction on a dime to keep up with NFL receivers.  This is the major knock on Peterson.  His hips are relatively stiff, which could force a position change to safety.  Is he the type of player who will get dominated by shifty smaller wideouts like Wes Welker in the NFL?  What about the athletic freaks like Calvin Johnson who can basically do it all?  These are all questions that will have to be answered by pro scouts."

Edited February 6, 2011 by Why So Serious?