1billsfan Posted February 6, 2011 Author Posted February 6, 2011 Do ya think we need much better blocking and an NFL level TE? Maybe not.....perhaps Green is all we need to seal the deal! You're not going to like this, but I'd even take Peterson over the front seven defensive players like Dareus, Bowers or Miller being discussed here at #3. I think the Bills are in a can't lose position with Fairley, Green or Peterson being there at our pick. We do have seven more picks to address need areas.
BobChalmers Posted February 6, 2011 Posted February 6, 2011 (edited) i like AJ Green, but on THIS bills team, I'd take Dareus/Quinn/Bowers/Fairley all before AJ. Why? Charles Rogers, Roy Williams, Mike Williams, and Calvin Johnson...and detroit is still nowhere to be seen. Detroit drafts Suh: instantly better. End of story. Calvin Johnson is a huge part of whatever success Detriot had this year. Suh makes the opposite point - he wasn't a "reach for need" at all - he was the consensus best player in the draft (certainly after Bradford, and the Lions already took their QB the previous year). Fairley fits that bill this year, although he's generally rated slightly lower that Suh. CJ was the no-brainer BP in the draft his year. And before the QB-addicts all jump in - are you forgetting they got better when they had Stafford playing, and weren't really all that great when he was hurt. The Bills DID beat Detroit, you know. Edited February 6, 2011 by BobChalmers
JohnC Posted February 6, 2011 Posted February 6, 2011 (edited) And before the QB-addicts all jump in - are you forgetting they got better when they had Stafford playing, and weren't really all that great when he was hurt. The Bills DID beat Detroit, you know. You are making a good case that impact players do make an impact. Calving Johnson and Suh were taken near the top of the draft. When you have a special talent on the board then it isn't a waste of a pick to select that special talent. The Lions have their franchise qb on their roster. That was the first position they drafted for when the new regime took over from Matt Millan. Now that they have that position settled they can address improving the roster. As their roster gets upgraded Stafford will get better with more experience and a better team to work with. Detroit did show that they are getting better, as demonstrated in the last third of the season. There are a lot of different ways to build a successful team. But the odds work against any team getting to an elite level without an outstanding qb. Look at the caliber of qbs for the playoffs and SB finalists. Getting a franchise qb on board when there is an opportunity to get that type of player is the right way to go. Edited February 6, 2011 by JohnC
1B4IDie Posted February 6, 2011 Posted February 6, 2011 You're not going to like this, but I'd even take Peterson over the front seven defensive players like Dareus, Bowers or Miller being discussed here at #3. I think the Bills are in a can't lose position with Fairley, Green or Peterson being there at our pick. We do have seven more picks to address need areas. Since 2000 here is a list of teams that took a DB in the top ten Raiders, Bills, Browns, and the Redskins X 3. Not exactly a list of teams that know what they're doing on draft day.
1billsfan Posted February 6, 2011 Author Posted February 6, 2011 Since 2000 here is a list of teams that took a DB in the top ten Raiders, Bills, Browns, and the Redskins X 3. Not exactly a list of teams that know what they're doing on draft day. I look at the players not trends. Fairley, Green or Peterson will be stars at the next level. The drop off to the next level of talent is significant. The worst thing to do at the #3 spot is to draft for need and pass over one of these players. When you draft #3 you want to draft a superstar or someone very near to being one.
KD in CA Posted February 6, 2011 Posted February 6, 2011 I know - all these years I'm thinking a top 3 pick would be great, and now there are only two good players! Usually there are only 8 or 9 good players in the draft and the Bills are picking 10th.
1B4IDie Posted February 6, 2011 Posted February 6, 2011 (edited) I look at the players not trends. Fairley, Green or Peterson will be stars at the next level. The drop off to the next level of talent is significant. The worst thing to do at the #3 spot is to draft for need and pass over one of these players. When you draft #3 you want to draft a superstar or someone very near to being one. Peterson is not a star, or even close to "star" he has stiff hips for an NFL CB and looks more like SS. Which we need. He is in no way shape or form a "superstar" or "shutdown" corner. You don't want a "superstar" you want a player that will make an impact and improve the team to have more wins. You can keep your perimeter "stars" This team needs players that force the opposition to adjust their strategy. Teams will have to game plan the Bills very differently with Williams and Dareus on the same line. If somehow Peterson pans out, how will that help beat the Pats, Jets, or Dolphins that don't have a #1 receiver or don't know how to use them (Marshall) ? It won't help much. Everyone seems to think that Lee Evans is doubled on every play, so 2 years from now you have Green and Stevie Johnson, the Bills are in the same boat Green gets doubled just like Lee. No impact. Edited February 6, 2011 by Why So Serious?
truth on hold Posted February 6, 2011 Posted February 6, 2011 You are making a good case that impact players do make an impact. Calving Johnson and Suh were taken near the top of the draft. When you have a special talent on the board then it isn't a waste of a pick to select that special talent. The Lions have their franchise qb on their roster. That was the first position they drafted for when the new regime took over from Matt Millan. Now that they have that position settled they can address improving the roster. As their roster gets upgraded Stafford will get better with more experience and a better team to work with. Detroit did show that they are getting better, as demonstrated in the last third of the season. There are a lot of different ways to build a successful team. But the odds work against any team getting to an elite level without an outstanding qb. Look at the caliber of qbs for the playoffs and SB finalists. Getting a franchise qb on board when there is an opportunity to get that type of player is the right way to go. true, but he's staying at Stanford
JohnC Posted February 6, 2011 Posted February 6, 2011 true, but he's staying at Stanford If the scouting department makes a determination that none of the qbs are worthy high round picks, then so be it. You have to trust your scouting judgment. I don't know much about Gabbert so I will see how he is eventually rated. But I have seen Newton on a number of occasions. In my view, from a talent standpoint, he is a better version of Tebow, who I did like. Josh Freeman, who received similar criticisms as Newton, turned out to be a franchise changing pick.
bobobonators Posted February 6, 2011 Posted February 6, 2011 Solution: Don't draft AJ Green. With the exception of Keyshawn Johnson and Plaxico Burress, no super bowl winning team in the past ten years has had a WR drafted in the top 10, let alone the top 5. As for Keyshawn Johnson and the Super Bowl winning Bucs from the 2002 season, the Bucs didn't draft Keyshawn, he was drafted 1st overall by the Jets in 1996. As for Plaxico Burress and the Super Bowl winning Giants from the 2007 season, the Giants didn't draft Plaxico, he was drafted 8th overall by the Steelers in 2000. Going even further, if you take the time to look at the WR's on these super bowl winning teams, the vast majority of them weren't even drafted in the 1st round-most were drafted early second round (I didn't keep track, but you can go look for yourself). Also, a large portion were also drafted after the 5th rounds. This agains applies to this year's teams in the Super Bowl, so despite the winner, it'll be another season where a champion does not have a top 10 WR. So again, solution = don't draft AJ Green.
NoSaint Posted February 6, 2011 Posted February 6, 2011 Solution: Don't draft AJ Green. With the exception of Keyshawn Johnson and Plaxico Burress, no super bowl winning team in the past ten years has had a WR drafted in the top 10, let alone the top 5. As for Keyshawn Johnson and the Super Bowl winning Bucs from the 2002 season, the Bucs didn't draft Keyshawn, he was drafted 1st overall by the Jets in 1996. As for Plaxico Burress and the Super Bowl winning Giants from the 2007 season, the Giants didn't draft Plaxico, he was drafted 8th overall by the Steelers in 2000. Going even further, if you take the time to look at the WR's on these super bowl winning teams, the vast majority of them weren't even drafted in the 1st round-most were drafted early second round (I didn't keep track, but you can go look for yourself). Also, a large portion were also drafted after the 5th rounds. This agains applies to this year's teams in the Super Bowl, so despite the winner, it'll be another season where a champion does not have a top 10 WR. So again, solution = don't draft AJ Green. Those drafted in round one that won with their original team were drafted by playoff or near playoff teams in the second half of the round. The biggest exception in the last 20 years was torry holt- note he was the 6th pick but on a team that hit on Orlando pace, Leonard little and got lucky with Warner. It seems to reenforce how dependent a good WR is, as they are always the final piece taken, not the first. Green could be good, even our missing link but I think much like LB, or interior OL there is good value in the late first/early second most years- it's not a premium top 3 position for me. That said I don't know I want the third DLineman off the board at 3. It's a tough spot.
Nanker Posted February 6, 2011 Posted February 6, 2011 Please don't disturb the lofty dreams of some who think Superman is disguised as AJ Green. Don't try telling a Georgia fan that he's better than Julius Jones though.
T master Posted February 6, 2011 Posted February 6, 2011 AL DAVIS WILL DRAFT HIM IN THE FIRST ROUND !!!!!
Koufax Posted February 6, 2011 Posted February 6, 2011 No impact? First, I think that most would agree that Green is a better player than Lee, and is more likely to get open when double teamed. But forcing a double team or getting Revis on him does make our team better. We aren't playing fantasy football, we are trying to win games. I would love for Green not to be the right pick. I would love if upon the careful studying of talent, there is a front-7 guy who we think is the best player, or close enough. But right now I don't see another A talent like Green making it to us. And I don't want a B talent with the pick because we need it. If it ends up being A and A-, go ahead, take the LB/DE/DT. But I want an elite player at #3, not just a solid contributor. If the most elite player plays WR or DB, I will be disappointed that that is the reality, but happier if we pick that player and not pass on him. As for the Detroit WR vs Suh stuff, others have covered that pretty well, but Calvin Johnson is a big part of what the Lions are doing. I think they would pick Suh over him if they were in the same draft, but the real Detroit problem, much like the Bills, was not getting great players before Calvin Johnson, with picks that should be able to get great players. Everyone seems to think that Lee Evans is doubled on every play, so 2 years from now you have Green and Stevie Johnson, the Bills are in the same boat Green gets doubled just like Lee. No impact.
Sisyphean Bills Posted February 6, 2011 Posted February 6, 2011 Everyone seems to think that Lee Evans is doubled on every play I know he isn't.
truth on hold Posted February 6, 2011 Posted February 6, 2011 (edited) Solution: Don't draft AJ Green. With the exception of Keyshawn Johnson and Plaxico Burress, no super bowl winning team in the past ten years has had a WR drafted in the top 10, let alone the top 5. As for Keyshawn Johnson and the Super Bowl winning Bucs from the 2002 season, the Bucs didn't draft Keyshawn, he was drafted 1st overall by the Jets in 1996. As for Plaxico Burress and the Super Bowl winning Giants from the 2007 season, the Giants didn't draft Plaxico, he was drafted 8th overall by the Steelers in 2000. Going even further, if you take the time to look at the WR's on these super bowl winning teams, the vast majority of them weren't even drafted in the 1st round-most were drafted early second round (I didn't keep track, but you can go look for yourself). Also, a large portion were also drafted after the 5th rounds. This agains applies to this year's teams in the Super Bowl, so despite the winner, it'll be another season where a champion does not have a top 10 WR. So again, solution = don't draft AJ Green. lol @ completely bogus analysis. 1st you set artificial parameters of "last 10 years" and "top 10", conveniently excludiing Torry Holt @ #6 in 1999. And even then there are exceptions you need to try and rationalize. Burress left Steelers because they couldnt pay him, and caught the winning Super Bowl TD for Giants. And what did Steelers do when he left? Draft Santonio Holmes in the 1st round, who in his 2nd year made the most spectacular game winning TD catch in Super Bowl history. Keyswawn, although a reach at #1, was still on successful playoff caliber teams where ever he went, and oh yes he does have that shiny ring on his finger. Fitzgerald was drafted #3 overall and no one in their right mind would call that a wasted pick. And why doesn't Larry have a ring yet? Because of that spectacular catch by 1st round Holmes. With the impact 1st round WRs have had, what your "analysis" really points out is that they should be drafted even higher. Edited February 6, 2011 by Joe_the_6_pack
dpberr Posted February 6, 2011 Posted February 6, 2011 For folks that want to take Green at #3, how do you propose to fix the run defense, which took us out of so many games last year?
bobobonators Posted February 6, 2011 Posted February 6, 2011 (edited) lol @ completely bogus analysis. 1st you set artificial parameters of "last 10 years" and "top 10", conveniently excludiing Torry Holt @ #6 in 1999. And even then there are exceptions you need to try and rationalize. Burress left Steelers because they couldnt pay him, and caught the winning Super Bowl TD for Giants. And what did Steelers do when he left? Draft Santonio Holmes in the 1st round, who in his 2nd year made the most spectacular game winning TD catch in Super Bowl history. Keyswawn, although a reach at #1, was still on successful playoff caliber teams where ever he went, and oh yes he does have that shiny ring on his finger. Fitzgerald was drafted #3 overall and no one in their right mind would call that a wasted pick. And why doesn't Larry have a ring yet? Because of that spectacular catch by 1st round Holmes. With the impact 1st round WRs have had, what your "analysis" really points out is that they should be drafted even higher. bogus parameters? dude, i think a decade is a good sample. how far back do you want me to go? you go back 20yrs then if you have nothing better to do. who honestly cares about your arguments about holmes/fitzgerald/keyshawn, none of your gibberish above disproves anything. My parameters were simple enough, you don't like them, come up with your own. We're not talking about a simple "1st round WR"..we're talking about drafting a WR w/ the top 3 pick, and having to pay WR (of all positions) a top 3 salary. You're completely missing the point. Edited February 6, 2011 by bobobonators
seq004 Posted February 6, 2011 Posted February 6, 2011 What if Nick Fairley has been taken, AJ Green is still sitting there at #3 and no one wants to trade into the Bills pick? This is a major dilemma, for I think that the Bills will certainly rue the day they select marginal talents like Miller, Dareus or whomever over Green. If this scenario plays out I hope that the Bills select the BPA Green because of the bust (mediocre player) potential of all the other guys we would select over him. We already have a Von Miller type in Moats and we do have an early second round pick where there will certainly be a starting ILB for us. No dilemma. You take Dareus who is anything bu marginal.
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