Why the Bills will go QB instead of DT @ pick # 3

[tonyjustbcuz]

Short version...No not really...I would go with Fairley DT or D. Bowers DE if either are there at #3 !!!

[NewEra]

Didn't Phily? in 2009 didn't Minnesota? Didn't Buffalo sign Flutie?

I think we should pick a QB if that is what Buddy thinks at this point, I really think we need to develop player more than draft one high though.

 

ROFL!!! Doug Flutie a "franchise QB"? I think not.

 

Short version...No not really...I would go with Fairley DT or D. Bowers DE if either are there at #3 !!!

 

 

and if they are gone?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Didn't Arizona?

 

Kinda depends upon your definition of "franchise QB, doesn't it?

Some folks here define it as someone who is drafted as "the Man", the face of the franchise, the guy who never gets traded until he retires.

 

By that definition, no one can have traded for or acquired a franchise QB because....a franchise QB doesn't get traded or allowed to leave as FA

He's the face of the franchise, if he got traded he must not be franchise dude. Neat, huh?

 

Now, if you wanna talk traded or acquired a QB who has taken the team to playoffs/championships/superbowl, then yeah, bunch of teams have done it.

N'Orleans succeeded all the way to the superbowl win with Brees.

Seasnakes Hasselbeck (5 playoffs and a SB appearance).

Zona with Warner (2 playoffs and a SB appearance).

Denver and KC with Deberg (3 playoffs).

Baltimore with Dilfer (1 playoff and a SB win - he played very well that year).

Tampa Bay with Brad Johnson (4 playoff appearances and a SB win - a quality QB IMO).

 

More recently:

Da Bears, with Cutler (NFC championship).

Vick with the Eagles (Playoffs)

 

Quarterback moves with potential:

Schaub with the Texans (they hope it will work, he's playing pretty well)

Campbell with the Raiders (ditto)

 

Then of course there are the teams who hoped it would work, but doesn't look that way:

McNabb (Washington)

Favre (Vikings - vikes have such a long history of picking up other teams former greats one wonders if they know that QB can be drafted)

Anderson ('Zona)

 

It really doesn't seem to be that uncommon

 

There's probably a few besides me that are very high on Ryan Mallett, but I think everyone would agree he's a ' reach ' with the #3-overall pick. As for the rest of this year's QB's, none of 'em - Kim Newton, Gabe Blabbert, Fake Locker...none - are first-round material.

 

My wish now is for Von Miller in round one, and come back for Christian Ponder in round three. JMO.

 

Senator: I could vote for that. 'Though I wonder if Ponder will go 4 or later. You know. He's small. Without a lot of arm strength.

QB like that don't make it in the NFL. Oh, wait.....

[3rdand12]

"When you have a shot at a Franchise QB you have to just take it." <quoted

Agreed.

We need to find a way draft #1 next year to get The franchise qb that we thought was going to announce this year. He is staying in school and good for him i hope. We need to trade with what will be the worst team next year for next years number one. We might have had him if we sold grammas old jewelry and the farm.

If i were to guess, and i of course am, there may be no first-second rounded QBs that become franchise./rolleyes

"Christian Ponder in round three" i would not be suprised.

Edited February 4, 2011 by 3rdand12

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I would like for someone to explain why Blaine Gabbert is recently becoming the media favorite QB in this year's draft class? No sarcasm here, as I'm not sure as to why Gabbert is the new golden egg once Andrew Luck elected to stay in college.

 

I'd like to understand that myself (and I'm from MO!).

 

Don't get me wrong, he's a good kid and he's played well. I think he's a solid prospect. He's only played for 2 years, though. Gil Brandt thinks he should stay in school.

I thought well of Chase Daniel, too - he was a 2x Heisman finalist and broke school passing records like they were toothpicks -- and he went undrafted (now backing up Brees for the Saints).

 

Gabbert is bigger I guess

Edited February 4, 2011 by Hopeful

[3rdand12]

Backing up to Brees is almost as good or better than being a starter at his age. This chase daniel. What was the knock against him?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

We could take any of the available QB's and likely we will still end up looking for our QB of the future, but still have holes at all of the other positions to fill....

 

DINGDINGDINGDINGDINGDING!

 

Ladies and Gentlemen, We Have A Winner!!!

[3rdand12]

echo..dingding.ding.

[b stein 22]

If we drafted a QB at 3 I would be very pissed off. Not one QB is worth #3 and it would destroy my faith in the bills front office. How many times is it going to take the bills FO to learn not to reach in the first round. Its pure insanity. I say we draft AJ Green and then draft a RT in the 2nd followed by the best TE on the board. I want to give Fitz the tools to succeed so we know if he has got it or not. If he does not have it then I guess we will be in the run for Luck next year.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Backing up to Brees is almost as good or better than being a starter at his age. This chase daniel. What was the knock against him?

 

He didn't sleep on a board, apparently? SI.com: "He lacks the size and arm strength to be anything other than a clipboard holder in the NFL" (6'0", 225 lb)

Since Brees is 6'0" and 210 lb, Saints may see it differently - they have a 3rd QB on their roster, but Daniel is #2.

 

Well, that and he played in a "spread offense". But that doesn't seem to bother anyone about Gabbert, who is 6'5".

 

 

 

If we drafted a QB at 3 I would be very pissed off. Not one QB is worth #3 and it would destroy my faith in the bills front office. How many times is it going to take the bills FO to learn not to reach in the first round. Its pure insanity. I say we draft AJ Green and then draft a RT in the 2nd followed by the best TE on the board. I want to give Fitz the tools to succeed so we know if he has got it or not. If he does not have it then I guess we will be in the run for Luck next year.

 

You know, I feel very strongly we should draft for D but you've constructed an argument that makes some sense - finish fixing one side of the ball first.

 

I can't imagine Wannstache being happy with our current crop, though. Merriman or no

[b stein 22]

He didn't sleep on a board, apparently? SI.com: "He lacks the size and arm strength to be anything other than a clipboard holder in the NFL" (6'0", 225 lb)

Since Brees is 6'0" and 210 lb, Saints may see it differently - they have a 3rd QB on their roster, but Daniel is #2.

 

 

 

 

You know, I feel very strongly we should draft for D but you've constructed an argument that makes some sense - finish fixing one side of the ball first.

 

I can't imagine Wannstache being happy with our current crop, though. Merriman or no

I guess for Wannstache we could go defensive 1 and 2 and then we have to draft a TE if there is one that is worth the pick. We badly need a productive TE on this team!!

[Nasty]

I think we should stick it out with Fitz for a couple of years. If he doesn't work out there are a lot of good young QB's that will be around the draft in like 2 or 3 years I.E. (Matt Barkley, USC; Aaron Murray, GA; or Robert Griffin III, Baylor) to name a few and they are all sophomore's. That Murray kid is kinda short but that guy has a gun for an arm. So I don't see why all these people are looking for the next Franchise QB when we have a very capable one on our roster now. I can't wait to see what he does in year 2 of Chan's Offense and playing a full year. I wouldn't be suprised if he put up 30 TD passes, he might throw like 15 INT's too but I will take it; and after next year we can put the franchise QB thing to rest for about 5 years. Farve always threw a lot of INT's also.

[billnutinphoenix]

Peterson, Fairley, or Green ...These are the surest bets of the draft...One of these 3 and I am ecstatic...

[Bill4Life]

I agree with your point and thank you for seeing mine. Just to answer your question as to why Gabbert is the new golden boy stems from before Luck and Gabbert were in college. They both attended the same All American camp and scouts then thought Gabbert was the better prospect. They both have the make up a protypical QB: Great height, weight, arm strength and enough elusiveness. The difference I feel is that Luck was coached up a bit better under Harbarough at Stanford then Gabbert was at Mizz.

[bobobonators]

First and only reason why the Bills will not draft a QB at #3: none of the QB's in this draft are worth a sh#t.

[coseybedaman]

Everyone saying these QBs are worthless. Please tell me exactly what you base that on? All of them are first round projections to some team that will actually make them a franchise QB! We will keep experimenting and waste another 3 years on some QB that we draft in the 3rd round. After the combine, one or two QBs ALWAYS emerge as top talent, and this year will be no different. To say that none of the QBs in this draft are worth a crap is so ignorant. Any QB entering the NFL has questions, injuries, problems, etc however some team always drafts them in the first round and always improves (tom brady, joe flacco, ben roethlisberger, matt schaub, colt mccoy, tim tebow, matt cassel, philip rivers, tony romo, jay cutler, matthew stafford, aaron rodgers, drew brees, sam braford, josh freeman). Every one of these QBs were either drafted later than 10 overall OR had huge questions as to whether they had franchise ability. Every last one of them. This is half the NFL!! History shows us that more than one of these guys this year are going to be franchise QBs. I dont care how big of a reach it is, when you end up with one of these players you made a good selection! (of course not everyone has had the time to prove themselves yet, but every name here definitely has their team on the upside)

[Orton's Arm]

I love the Bills just as much as anyone on here but as many Gms as I seem to come across on this site none of them seem to be looking into the "future" of the Bills when they mock our pick. I agree with all of their banter on how we need linbackers and defensive line to stop the run, but lets face the facts, If we decided to draft fairley (who is not suh) and a linebacker in round 2 this team would still be 2-3 years away from winning and would still searching for our QB of the future. Here are my top reasons why I'm sold we take a QB.

 

.7 You could always sign FA def players, how often does anyone sign FA franchise QB in free agency? Never! because no team is stupid enough to let their guy hit the market without compensation.

 

.6 There are proven FA tackles to be had in Free agency: Brandon Mebane, Aubrayo Franklin, Richard Seymor.. How about FA linebackers Lamar Woodley, David Harris, Chad Greenway and Tamba Hali.

 

.5 There are no guarentees that Fairley and Bowers don't turn out to be busts as well. Both are some what of a one hit wonder.. Do think the name Aaron Maybin hasn't scared anyone in the Bills organization when it comes to drafting a player who doesn't have more then a 1 great year to show on his resume?

 

.4 Gailey and Nix say it themselves in an interview with a radio station Gailey is quoted as saying: "How many years do you expect to be able to draft at number three and be able to get a guy like that even if you put him under wraps for a year or two, while you’re grooming him? You have to consider that. We’re not in here just thinking about short term next year what can we do for the Buffalo Bills. Buddy (Nix) and I are committed to the long term success of the Buffalo Bills.”

 

.3 Do people really think that after the combine you won't have the whole nation talking about Blaine Gabbert as the possible #1 overall pick?? Luck is good but he is more the product of Hype than a can't miss prospect.. Going into school it was Gabbert who was the more sought after recruit and he would certainly have been #1 in next years draft.

 

.2 Lets just say we take Gailey at his word and Draft Gabbert if Carolina doesn't select him, well then we have Fitz to show him the ropes and to hold us over while Nix starts putting the rest of the defensive pieces together. Hey apparently it worked for Green bay, they still had Farve while they drafted Rodgers, granted its a lot less of a risk at where they picked him but its a similar idea. They needed to start planning for life without farve and even though they didn't need another QB they still took one because they might not ever be in that position to take another Franchise caliber guy for a while. We've sucked for 11 straight years and when during that time have we ever been able to have our choice of what franchise QB we want??

 

.1 We are just not that good!!!! We're improving and I do see some light at the end of this tunnel, but its gona take some time and some luck (or should I say Gabbert) When you have a shot at a Franchise QB you have to just take it.

I fully agree that if you don't have a franchise QB and there's a chance to add one, you do it. Period. It doesn't matter what other needs you may have, or what other players may be available. No one player addition at any other position comes close to having the potential impact of a franchise QB. None.

 

That being said, you never want to say to yourself, "I need position X most of all, so when my pick comes around I'll pick the best player available at position X." Drafting for need or perceived need is one of the reasons why none of Marv's early picks came close to justifying their draft positions. Not only that, but once you've drafted a guy you think is going to be your franchise QB, there's a tendency to not use additional early picks on the QB position for a few years. This means that drafting the wrong guy can cost you the chance to add the right guy. In 2006, the Bills had the chance to use the 8th overall pick on Jay Cutler. But they did not do so in part because they had Losman on the roster and were still in the process of giving him his chance.

 

I like what I've seen of Luck's play, and what I've read about him from the draft experts has reinforced that impression. I haven't seen Gabbert play, but I've seen concerns raised about him. You want a QB who can process a lot of information quickly. What I've read has given me serious concerns about whether Gabbert is that guy.

 

Another option for the Bills to ponder is using a second round pick on Christian Ponder. He's demonstrated very good accuracy and a solid grasp of the mental aspects of the game. He's also very smart and hard-working, as he's shown by completing his masters degree a year or two early. I think Ponder has as good a chance as any other QB in this draft of becoming a franchise guy. If he doesn't prove to be the answer, all the Bills have lost is a second round pick. A franchise QB is worth much, much more than a second round pick, so the risk-reward ratio associated with Ponder looks pretty good from where I sit.

[coseybedaman]

While I agree with taking a QB, the thought of taking Ponder in the 2nd round doesnt interest me at all. The reason is this. You are going to go into the draft of already questionable QBs, and take the 5th or 6th ranked QB in the draft to be your starting QB? Look at the 5th-last QB taken in every draft and find me anyone besides Tom Brady who has really accomplished anything. Its not just the waste of the second round pick, its the waste of several seasons trying to figure out if he is the guy or not when the odds of the 5th best QB in the draft being that guy are not good. I think you either go all or nothing. You draft the guy you want in the first round, or you dont bother trying to get a starting QB out of the draft. We have so many needs, and I think QB is definitely near the top of that list. There really is no grey area with a QB. Either you have a star or you dont. I say draft a QB in the first round (of course I'd prefer to trade our pick since we dont have to pick one that early), but if you are going to try and "STEAL" a QB later in the draft then don't waste your time. Anything after round one these days (with such good scouting) is basically a backup QB. Of course there are exceptions (brees, brady, etc), but its not the norm.

[Orton's Arm]

While I agree with taking a QB, the thought of taking Ponder in the 2nd round doesnt interest me at all. The reason is this. You are going to go into the draft of already questionable QBs, and take the 5th or 6th ranked QB in the draft to be your starting QB? Look at the 5th-last QB taken in every draft and find me anyone besides Tom Brady who has really accomplished anything. Its not just the waste of the second round pick, its the waste of several seasons trying to figure out if he is the guy or not when the odds of the 5th best QB in the draft being that guy are not good. I think you either go all or nothing. You draft the guy you want in the first round, or you dont bother trying to get a starting QB out of the draft. We have so many needs, and I think QB is definitely near the top of that list. There really is no grey area with a QB. Either you have a star or you dont. I say draft a QB in the first round (of course I'd prefer to trade our pick since we dont have to pick one that early), but if you are going to try and "STEAL" a QB later in the draft then don't waste your time. Anything after round one these days (with such good scouting) is basically a backup QB. Of course there are exceptions (brees, brady, etc), but its not the norm.

I agree with the logic that you either a) take the best quarterback available or b) don't take a quarterback at all. That being said, I think Ponder may well be the best quarterback available in this draft.

• There are serious question marks about Gabbert, at least according to some draft experts.
  
• Newton is a one year wonder who may lack the ability to quickly process information necessary for success at the NFL level.
  
• Mallett is known more for his arm strength than he is for being a polished pocket passer.
  
• Locker is also far less polished and NFL-ready than Ponder.

 

Prior to the start of the 2010 season, a number of draft experts had Ponder rated as either the best or one of the two best quarterback prospects in the 2011 draft. (They were assuming, correctly, that Luck would not declare.) These experts noted that while Ponder's physical tools may not have been as exciting as those of some other QBs available in the draft, he made up for that with good accuracy, good decision-making, and the ability to read the field quickly. As far as I can tell, the consensus is that Ponder is the most NFL-ready of this year's crop of quarterbacks.

 

"NFL-ready" is an interesting phrase. Back when people were debating whether the Colts should take Peyton Manning or Ryan Leaf, Manning was described as the more "NFL-ready" and Leaf was described as the quarterback with the higher "upside" due to his better physical tools.

 

To me, the phrase, "NFL-ready" means "this guy has gone a long way toward proving he can handle the mental aspects of the NFL game." Those are the quarterbacks I want. Being "NFL-ready" isn't just about a quick transition to the NFL--it's about whether the quarterback has the mental aptitude and bandwidth necessary to truly take command of a football field. Ponder has that mental ability, or at least he seems to. Not only that, he has the throwing accuracy Fitz sorely lacks. Knowing where you're supposed to throw the football is of only limited value when you don't have the ability to make consistently accurate throws.

 

I agree with you that the biggest risk in taking Ponder is that the Bills might pass up some other potential franchise QB in the 2012 draft.

 

On the other hand, I did an analysis of the rate at which franchise QBs enter the NFL. It turns out that less than one franchise QB appears per year. Obviously some years see more than one franchise QB enter the league, and there's a chance 2012 might be one of those years. But at least at first glance, it appears that the only bona fide franchise QB likely to be available in 2012 will be Andrew Luck. Luck will almost certainly be taken first overall, which means the Bills are very unlikely to be in a position to draft him. I'd be very surprised if we ended up even with a top-5 pick in that draft!

 

But if by some miracle the Bills are in a position to take Luck (or some other equally good QB) the smart move would be to simply ignore Ponder's presence on the roster and take Luck anyway. (In the unlikely event Ryan Fitzpatrick is reading this, he's probably thinking to himself, I'm glad this guy isn't the Bills' GM!) The idea behind taking Luck or a Luck-like quarterback would be that the Bills would have to content themselves with having used a 2nd round pick on their backup QB. At least over the short-term.

 

Of course, if the Bills found themselves in that situation, they should then sit the rookie Luck while playing Ponder. If Ponder played well, the Bills would have the option of either trading away Luck, trading away Ponder for a very good pick, or keeping both guys. Having two good QBs on your roster creates a lot of options.

Edited February 4, 2011 by Edwards' Arm

[BillnutinHouston]

.4 Gailey and Nix say it themselves in an interview with a radio station Gailey is quoted as saying: "How many years do you expect to be able to draft at number three and be able to get a guy like that even if you put him under wraps for a year or two, while you’re grooming him? You have to consider that. We’re not in here just thinking about short term next year what can we do for the Buffalo Bills. Buddy (Nix) and I are committed to the long term success of the Buffalo Bills.”

 

.2 Lets just say we take Gailey at his word and Draft Gabbert if Carolina doesn't select him, well then we have Fitz to show him the ropes and to hold us over while Nix starts putting the rest of the defensive pieces together. Hey apparently it worked for Green bay, they still had Farve while they drafted Rodgers, granted its a lot less of a risk at where they picked him but its a similar idea. They needed to start planning for life without farve and even though they didn't need another QB they still took one because they might not ever be in that position to take another Franchise caliber guy for a while. We've sucked for 11 straight years and when during that time have we ever been able to have our choice of what franchise QB we want??

 

I think you are putting too much stock in what Gailey says BEFORE the draft, and not enough stock in what Nix has said AFTER his first draft. Pre-draft statements are believed at the listener's peril; post-draft statements IMO more accurately reveal a team's true feelings. (Granted, post-draft statements can also be spin as they serve to justify the thought process that drove the selections.)

 

Recall last year how Nix defended not taking a LT in the draft. He stated he will not reach for a guy if he's not going to be better than what you already have. Based on this, I do not see Nix selecting anyone that he thinnks is years away from seeing the field.