Why the Bills will go QB instead of DT @ pick # 3

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I guess for Wannstache we could go defensive 1 and 2 and then we have to draft a TE if there is one that is worth the pick. We badly need a productive TE on this team!!

 

I agree with you, we badly need 1-2 quality, productive TE

I don't know how it will shake out, it seems there are a number of quality TE that might be available in FA... that would be sweet!

[frogger]

If we are able to sign 2 of 3 of these: a good ILB, a NT or an OLB, I could see buffalo taking a QB...I would love to see Peterson in that scenario though. And address the missing 1/3 in the 2nd round and a TE in the 3rd.

 

Peterson will be the prize of this draft.

[EldaBillsFan]

it has probably already been said, but then why not take Cam Newton? he has a higher ceiling than any QB in the draft....and Big play capability with his arms and legs.... Gabbert has moved up so high on everyones list almost by default..Mallet..Had a strong start but a slow finish...Locker...had a poor showing in the Senior bowl, but last year people ranked him just slighty behind Bradford.....and The only lock as the number one QB being luck pulled out... Not saying Gabbert wont be a good pro, but he has moved up by default

[coseybedaman]

I love Newton. If we go QB that would be my selection. I cant see this guy being a bust. He has such great leadership, powerful arm, very accurate for such a powerful arm, NFL size/strength and amazing scrambling ability which Gailey loves (and is needed with our OL). All this one year wonder stuff about Newton is completely unfair. To be a one year wonder in my opinion you need to have played more than one season. To come in on your only season and complete the triple crown of college football (undefeated, heisman, bcs trophy) is an amazing accomplishment and shouldnt be overlooked. This guy is an NFL stud, no doubt in my mind. Some team will learn that this season, doubtful it will be us.

[RuntheDamnBall]

While I agree with taking a QB, the thought of taking Ponder in the 2nd round doesnt interest me at all. The reason is this. You are going to go into the draft of already questionable QBs, and take the 5th or 6th ranked QB in the draft to be your starting QB? Look at the 5th-last QB taken in every draft and find me anyone besides Tom Brady who has really accomplished anything. Its not just the waste of the second round pick, its the waste of several seasons trying to figure out if he is the guy or not when the odds of the 5th best QB in the draft being that guy are not good. I think you either go all or nothing. You draft the guy you want in the first round, or you dont bother trying to get a starting QB out of the draft. We have so many needs, and I think QB is definitely near the top of that list. There really is no grey area with a QB. Either you have a star or you dont. I say draft a QB in the first round (of course I'd prefer to trade our pick since we dont have to pick one that early), but if you are going to try and "STEAL" a QB later in the draft then don't waste your time. Anything after round one these days (with such good scouting) is basically a backup QB. Of course there are exceptions (brees, brady, etc), but its not the norm.

Schaub would fit your bill (after Eli, Ben, Rivers, JP)

 

I know he hasn't taken Houston to the playoffs, but I'd rather have him than any QB on our roster, and I am comfortable with Fitzy.

[EldaBillsFan]

im very comfortable with Fitz...it was his first year with Gailey...my opinion add Green, and but Lee in the slot...and for the next several years we have a chance to be a special offense

[LabattBlue]

Everyone saying these QBs are worthless. Please tell me exactly what you base that on? All of them are first round projections to some team that will actually make them a franchise QB! We will keep experimenting and waste another 3 years on some QB that we draft in the 3rd round. After the combine, one or two QBs ALWAYS emerge as top talent, and this year will be no different. To say that none of the QBs in this draft are worth a crap is so ignorant. Any QB entering the NFL has questions, injuries, problems, etc however some team always drafts them in the first round and always improves (tom brady, joe flacco, ben roethlisberger, matt schaub, colt mccoy, tim tebow, matt cassel, philip rivers, tony romo, jay cutler, matthew stafford, aaron rodgers, drew brees, sam braford, josh freeman). Every one of these QBs were either drafted later than 10 overall OR had huge questions as to whether they had franchise ability. Every last one of them. This is half the NFL!! History shows us that more than one of these guys this year are going to be franchise QBs. I dont care how big of a reach it is, when you end up with one of these players you made a good selection! (of course not everyone has had the time to prove themselves yet, but every name here definitely has their team on the upside)

^^^ This(especially the bolded part).

[SoulMan]

http://blogs.nfl.com/2011/01/27/wilson-bills-wont-reach-for-qb-with-third-pick/

 

 

As for the one who suggested Kaepernick in the second, that's insane. IMO, you don't look at a QB that raw until the fourth. The Bills need to find 4 starters with the first three rounds (DE, LB, LB, CB). I hope the Bills look at either Kaepernick or Tyrod Tayor in the fifth. One of them should be there.

 

 

Yep and double Yep

[Orton's Arm]

Schaub would fit your bill (after Eli, Ben, Rivers, JP)

 

I know he hasn't taken Houston to the playoffs, but I'd rather have him than any QB on our roster, and I am comfortable with Fitzy.

Earlier when I was doing some research about franchise QBs, I was quite surprised to find out exactly how good Schaub's stats really are. Let me throw some numbers at you.

 

Trent Edwards has averaged 6.5 yards per attempt for his career. Ryan Fitzpatrick's career average is 6.0, but this past season he averaged 6.8. Peyton Manning's career average is 7.6. Jay Cutler's career average is 7.2, and this past season he averaged 7.6. Donovan McNabb's average is 6.9.

 

And Matt Schaub? . . . His career average is 7.8 yards per attempt--better even than Peyton Manning's--and his career QB rating is 91.5. His TD/INT ratio is a solid 1.6. I know he's not a household name. But those numbers are so good that I just didn't see how I could label Schaub as being less than a franchise QB based on my or others' preconceptions against him. If I don't label him a franchise QB even after he puts up 7.8 yards per attempt, what would he have to do to change my opinion? 8.0 yards? 8.2? At some point you start to realize that demands like that are a little ridiculous, especially when Peyton Manning's career average is 7.6, and Tom Brady's average is 7.4.

 

What makes quarterbacks like Schaub and Brees interesting is that they were both taken because of what they'd shown as pocket passers, and not because of their physical gifts. I realize that your odds of getting a franchise QB outside of round 1 are very slim. But if you want to maximize those odds, you need to focus on QBs in the Schaub/Brees category: guys who are accurate passers and who have shown the ability to read defenses and process information quickly associated with NFL-level franchise QBs.

[coseybedaman]

While Schaub and Brees are both fantastic, I believe they are definitely both products of the offense they play for. Schaub does put up amazing numbers, but they have that type of offense where it allows him to go for 350 yards in a game. Brees of course was ok-decent as a starter before revitalizing his career with the Saints. I think Sean Payton really had, and still has, a lot to do with Drew Brees success. Those are two of the very few examples of QBs that were passed up in favor of other QBs in the draft, however both Brees and Schaub were never thought of as franchise QBs until they got their fresh start with teams that didn't even draft them. While those are good examples of QBs that worked out well outside of the 1st round, they didn't really work out for the team that drafted them so I'd say those guys show more of a case for picking up a free agent then picking up a late round QB.

[stony]

While Schaub and Brees are both fantastic, I believe they are definitely both products of the offense they play for. Schaub does put up amazing numbers, but they have that type of offense where it allows him to go for 350 yards in a game. Brees of course was ok-decent as a starter before revitalizing his career with the Saints. I think Sean Payton really had, and still has, a lot to do with Drew Brees success. Those are two of the very few examples of QBs that were passed up in favor of other QBs in the draft, however both Brees and Schaub were never thought of as franchise QBs until they got their fresh start with teams that didn't even draft them. While those are good examples of QBs that worked out well outside of the 1st round, they didn't really work out for the team that drafted them so I'd say those guys show more of a case for picking up a free agent then picking up a late round QB.

 

Brees was a bit better then "OK-decent" w/ the Chargers as you say. Here's his stats from his final two seasons in SD. They got rid of him because they had invested their 1st overall pick in a QB who was sitting on the sidelines making big-time money.

 

G Att Comp Pct Att/G Yds Avg Yds/G TD TD% Int Int% Lng 20+ 40+ Sck SckY Rate

 

16 500 323 64.6 31.2 3,576 7.2 223.5 24 4.8 15 3.0 54 46 4 27 223 89.2

15 400 262 65.5 26.7 3,159 7.9 210.6 27 6.8 7 1.8 79T 40 9 18 131 104.8

[bobobonators]

Everyone saying these QBs are worthless. Please tell me exactly what you base that on? All of them are first round projections to some team that will actually make them a franchise QB! We will keep experimenting and waste another 3 years on some QB that we draft in the 3rd round. After the combine, one or two QBs ALWAYS emerge as top talent, and this year will be no different. To say that none of the QBs in this draft are worth a crap is so ignorant. Any QB entering the NFL has questions, injuries, problems, etc however some team always drafts them in the first round and always improves (tom brady, joe flacco, ben roethlisberger, matt schaub, colt mccoy, tim tebow, matt cassel, philip rivers, tony romo, jay cutler, matthew stafford, aaron rodgers, drew brees, sam braford, josh freeman). Every one of these QBs were either drafted later than 10 overall OR had huge questions as to whether they had franchise ability. Every last one of them. This is half the NFL!! History shows us that more than one of these guys this year are going to be franchise QBs. I dont care how big of a reach it is, when you end up with one of these players you made a good selection! (of course not everyone has had the time to prove themselves yet, but every name here definitely has their team on the upside)

 

We pick 3rd, and not one of the QB's in this draft are even close to being top 3 talent. So unless you want to trade down to the 12-15 range to draft Newton, than drafting any of these QBs at 3 would be a waste.

 

 

Also, it's funny how the likes of Gabbert all of a sudden become popular as the draft approaches..you know why? Because this year's draft class is THAT weak. Gabbert anywhere in the top 15 is a joke

 

History has no bearing on what any of these QB's will do in the future...there's no crystal ball, and there's no fancy equation that'll guarantee any success.

Edited February 4, 2011 by bobobonators

[tonyjustbcuz]

I'd like to understand that myself (and I'm from MO!).

 

Don't get me wrong, he's a good kid and he's played well. I think he's a solid prospect. He's only played for 2 years, though. Gil Brandt thinks he should stay in school.

I thought well of Chase Daniel, too - he was a 2x Heisman finalist and broke school passing records like they were toothpicks -- and he went undrafted (now backing up Brees for the Saints).

 

Gabbert is bigger I guess

 

 

Thanks appreciate you reinforcing my position on Gabbert. Like you, from what I know he has a lot of potential, but if A. Luck declared for the draft we know which way the media would go on the issue. I kind of agree about Gabbert should've stayed in school which could've further enhanched his draft position. But, possibly he realized that Luck would not declare and figured this would be his best shot to possibly be the #1 QB selected in the draft.

 

Either way I'm not sold on Gabbert just yet! Like'em but don't love'em if that makes sense..I love him for a 2nd or 3rd round pick, but with the #3 pick in the entire draft I think it would be foolish for the Bills to select Gabbert.

[Bill4Life]

^^^ This(especially the bolded part).

 

 

Thank you for solidfying my point. One of the 4 maybe even 2 of the 4 top Qbs will be a franchise guy.. We just have to select the right one! This may sound Crazy but I trust Nix and Gailey because they have a plan, which is more then the other clowns had in previous years.

 

Thanks appreciate you reinforcing my position on Gabbert. Like you, from what I know he has a lot of potential, but if A. Luck declared for the draft we know which way the media would go on the issue. I kind of agree about Gabbert should've stayed in school which could've further enhanched his draft position. But, possibly he realized that Luck would not declare and figured this would be his best shot to possibly be the #1 QB selected in the draft.

 

Either way I'm not sold on Gabbert just yet! Like'em but don't love'em if that makes sense..I love him for a 2nd or 3rd round pick, but with the #3 pick in the entire draft I think it would be foolish for the Bills to select Gabbert.

 

 

Your not sold yet,"YET" was the key word in the sentence, but wait till after the combine, his draft stock will have legs of its own.

[Mr_Blizzard]

I love the Bills just as much as anyone on here but as many Gms as I seem to come across on this site none of them seem to be looking into the "future" of the Bills when they mock our pick. I agree with all of their banter on how we need linbackers and defensive line to stop the run, but lets face the facts, If we decided to draft fairley (who is not suh) and a linebacker in round 2 this team would still be 2-3 years away from winning and would still searching for our QB of the future. Here are my top reasons why I'm sold we take a QB.

 

.7 You could always sign FA def players, how often does anyone sign FA franchise QB in free agency? Never! because no team is stupid enough to let their guy hit the market without compensation.

 

.6 There are proven FA tackles to be had in Free agency: Brandon Mebane, Aubrayo Franklin, Richard Seymor.. How about FA linebackers Lamar Woodley, David Harris, Chad Greenway and Tamba Hali.

 

.5 There are no guarentees that Fairley and Bowers don't turn out to be busts as well. Both are some what of a one hit wonder.. Do think the name Aaron Maybin hasn't scared anyone in the Bills organization when it comes to drafting a player who doesn't have more then a 1 great year to show on his resume?

 

.4 Gailey and Nix say it themselves in an interview with a radio station Gailey is quoted as saying: "How many years do you expect to be able to draft at number three and be able to get a guy like that even if you put him under wraps for a year or two, while you’re grooming him? You have to consider that. We’re not in here just thinking about short term next year what can we do for the Buffalo Bills. Buddy (Nix) and I are committed to the long term success of the Buffalo Bills.”

 

.3 Do people really think that after the combine you won't have the whole nation talking about Blaine Gabbert as the possible #1 overall pick?? Luck is good but he is more the product of Hype than a can't miss prospect.. Going into school it was Gabbert who was the more sought after recruit and he would certainly have been #1 in next years draft.

 

.2 Lets just say we take Gailey at his word and Draft Gabbert if Carolina doesn't select him, well then we have Fitz to show him the ropes and to hold us over while Nix starts putting the rest of the defensive pieces together. Hey apparently it worked for Green bay, they still had Farve while they drafted Rodgers, granted its a lot less of a risk at where they picked him but its a similar idea. They needed to start planning for life without farve and even though they didn't need another QB they still took one because they might not ever be in that position to take another Franchise caliber guy for a while. We've sucked for 11 straight years and when during that time have we ever been able to have our choice of what franchise QB we want??

 

.1 We are just not that good!!!! We're improving and I do see some light at the end of this tunnel, but its gona take some time and some luck (or should I say Gabbert) When you have a shot at a Franchise QB you have to just take it.

 

My opinion - We can wait grab a QB prospect in the 2nd or 3rd round and try to develop him. The best blue chip linemen never make it past the middle of the first round, and they can make an immediate impact from day one.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Schaub would fit your bill (after Eli, Ben, Rivers, JP)

 

I know he hasn't taken Houston to the playoffs, but I'd rather have him than any QB on our roster, and I am comfortable with Fitzy.

 

Yeppers. Of all the unheralded QB (eg guys not mentioned with Manning, Brady, Roeth), Schaub is the pick IMO. Garrard overall is better than people seem to think though. Cassel IMO had success w/in Belichek's system.

 

Late round QB currently starting in NFL, who seem to be regarded as "long term starters" if not franchise guys:

1998 Matt Hasselbeck (6 round, 7th QB). He's got 5 playoff appearances and a SB. 60.1% comp, 6.9 YPA, 3% INT (hot and cold there, some years great some bad). That's a bunch more than any QB B'lo has drafted since Kelly.

2002 Dave Garrard (4th round, 5th QB). 61.6% completions, 7 YPA, 2.4% INT. 1 playoff year. Overall record 31-31 don't think that's his fault though

2004 Matt Schaub, as mentioned. 64.8% completions, 7.8 YPA, 2.6% INT. 19-19 record with Texans NOT his fault.

2005 Matt Cassel (7th round, 13 QB) over all not so great, his year in NE he was 63.4% completions, 7.2 YPA, 2.1% INT, 10-5

Do we mention Kyle Orton? "Kyle Orton could start in 2011: Denver Broncos executive vice president of football operations" 4th round, 7 the QB. 2 years in Den OK 60.5% completion, 7.1 YPA, 2.0% INT. Be interesting to see what Denver does, he's clearly not "the Man" in the eyes of Denverites.

 

And of course, Brady.

 

Overall close to 20% of the NFL teams seem to regard a late-round guy as their long term starter, which is not to say many wouldn't upgrade.

That's true of any team whose starting QB isn't named Manning, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, or Rodgers. OK maybe Rivers, Vick, Freeman, Stafford, Bradford.

 

When I was digging up stuff on Superbowl/Playoff QB one pattern worth mentioning is 1st round QB tend to find success pretty quickly - 1-2 years.

3rd round or later QB tend to take 4-5 years to succeed, even if they're starting. Makes sense, right? 1st round QB are high because they're expected to be more "NFL ready" and need less grooming. Later QB are later because they're expected to have a learning curve.

 

So if we do take a late round QB expect a long apprenticeship. My concern is if we take a high-round QB and still achieve a long apprenticeship.

Edited February 5, 2011 by Hopeful

[Orton's Arm]

Yeppers. Of all the unheralded QB (eg guys not mentioned with Manning, Brady, Roeth), Schaub is the pick IMO. Garrard overall is better than people seem to think though. Cassel IMO had success w/in Belichek's system.

 

Late round QB currently starting in NFL, who seem to be regarded as "long term starters" if not franchise guys:

1998 Matt Hasselbeck (6 round, 7th QB). He's got 5 playoff appearances and a SB. 60.1% comp, 6.9 YPA, 3% INT (hot and cold there, some years great some bad). That's a bunch more than any QB B'lo has drafted since Kelly.

2002 Dave Garrard (4th round, 5th QB). 61.6% completions, 7 YPA, 2.4% INT. 1 playoff year. Overall record 31-31 don't think that's his fault though

2004 Matt Schaub, as mentioned. 64.8% completions, 7.8 YPA, 2.6% INT. 19-19 record with Texans NOT his fault.

2005 Matt Cassel (7th round, 13 QB) over all not so great, his year in NE he was 63.4% completions, 7.2 YPA, 2.1% INT, 10-5

Do we mention Kyle Orton? "Kyle Orton could start in 2011: Denver Broncos executive vice president of football operations" 4th round, 7 the QB. 2 years in Den OK 60.5% completion, 7.1 YPA, 2.0% INT. Be interesting to see what Denver does, he's clearly not "the Man" in the eyes of Denverites.

 

And of course, Brady.

 

Overall close to 20% of the NFL teams seem to regard a late-round guy as their long term starter, which is not to say many wouldn't upgrade.

That's true of any team whose starting QB isn't named Manning, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, or Rodgers. OK maybe Rivers, Vick, Freeman, Stafford, Bradford.

 

When I was digging up stuff on Superbowl/Playoff QB one pattern worth mentioning is 1st round QB tend to find success pretty quickly - 1-2 years.

3rd round or later QB tend to take 4-5 years to succeed, even if they're starting. Makes sense, right? 1st round QB are high because they're expected to be more "NFL ready" and need less grooming. Later QB are later because they're expected to have a learning curve.

 

So if we do take a late round QB expect a long apprenticeship. My concern is if we take a high-round QB and still achieve a long apprenticeship.

Good post!

 

A few weeks or months ago, I did some research about the rate at which franchise QBs enter the league. One of the things I found (or think I found) was that 7.2 yards per attempt seems to be a sort of cutoff point. A quarterback with a significantly lower average per attempt than that does not deserve to be considered franchise even if he's a household name. A quarterback with an average well above that should be called franchise even if he's not a household name. Matt Schaub, with his 7.8 yards per attempt, clearly comes to mind as a guy whose numbers put him in the franchise QB category, whether he has a big name or no. To address an earlier poster's point about the offensive system in which Schaub plays: yards per attempt is a fair way to compare a QB who's only asked to throw 20 times a game against a QB who's asked to throw 40 passes per game.

 

Cassel's career average is 6.7 yards per attempt, which makes him closer to Trent Edwards (6.5 yards per attempt) than to a franchise QB. Guys like Hasselbeck (6.9) and Garrard (7.0) have the numbers to be considered solid starters, but fall short of what you'd expect from a franchise QB. Kyle Orton's career average is 6.5 yards per attempt, which is Trent Edwards territory. But he had a good year in 2010 with 7.3 yards per attempt.

 

Of QBs still in the league, the only franchise QBs found in rounds 2 - 7 were Drew Brees (7.3 yards per attempt), Matt Schaub (7.8 YPA) and Tom Brady (7.4 YPA). None of those players are particularly gifted physically. But they're all gifted mentally, and they're all good, accurate passers.

 

There's typically a lot of pressure to play first round QBs their rookie years. Conversely, QBs picked after the first round are generally chosen by teams which feel less of a sense of urgency about the QB position. Back when the Patriots drafted Brady, their plan A at QB was Drew Bledsoe. When the Falcons took Schaub, their plan A at QB was Vick. And even when the Chargers took Brees, they felt that Doug Flutie could play well enough to get them by for a while.

 

As a general rule, I still think it's significantly better to take a QB in the first round than later on in the draft. But it's good to take a flexible approach to the actual circumstances that pertain to the draft. If there are no QBs you like in the first round, and if a second round pick like Ponder seems to offer the same pocket passing ability, accuracy, and mental acuity that previous later round franchise QBs have had, there's nothing wrong with taking him!

[Hplarrm]

You make some decent points... I think most draftniks and the media talking heads tend to isolate on one source to acquire players at the exclusion of all others. In addition to the draft, we still have FA and we still have trade possibilities... and don't forget we picked up some pretty good prospect OL from practice squads this season.

 

I'm sure that Buddy and Chan have a comprehensive plan to acquire the players they think will elevate the talent level on this team. It's not just going to be through the draft. Besides the fact that second, third and fourth rounders are typically not impact players as rookies.

 

I'm not familiar enough with all of the QB's who have declared to pass judgment. But, if our football guys think that there is a legitimate franchise QB at #3, then I see nothing wrong with going QB and addressing the other areas of need in later rounds and/or through other means.

I would not call the original post good points as much as it completely ignores the reality that not only were playoff worthy QBs like Favre, Vick, and even McNabb available as FAs but folks like young franchise eventual HOF players Favre and Young were traded away by TB. Elway and Eli Manning were both acquired by trade by the teams they led to SB wins. 1st round choice Dilfer was carried to an SB win by a team which intelligently used their draft for other positions.

 

As pointed out as recently as the last SB, NO got their franchise QB through FA. Heck TB won an SB with a two time loser in FA- no one mistakes Brad Johnson for a franchise QB, but if the booby prize is merely winning an SB I would take it.

 

This actually compares to what in many ways are the aberration of Peyton winning his one SB (he clearly is a franchise QB but the interesting thing is a franchise QB does not guarantee an SB win and also Pitts drafting RoboQB but then again maybe this incidence is just a co-incidence in terms of team building rather than a trend. The last QB drafted who helped his team to an SB before the aberration and coincidence was actually Troy Aikman drafted at the end of the 80s.

 

The actual facts pretty directly contradict your claim that drafting a QB in the first is the way to go. i like the coincidence of drafting Brady in the 6th more than I like the co-incidence of drafting RoboQB in the 1st.

[BillsVet]

I think you are putting too much stock in what Gailey says BEFORE the draft, and not enough stock in what Nix has said AFTER his first draft. Pre-draft statements are believed at the listener's peril; post-draft statements IMO more accurately reveal a team's true feelings. (Granted, post-draft statements can also be spin as they serve to justify the thought process that drove the selections.)

 

Recall last year how Nix defended not taking a LT in the draft. He stated he will not reach for a guy if he's not going to be better than what you already have. Based on this, I do not see Nix selecting anyone that he thinnks is years away from seeing the field.

 

Buddy said last year going into the off-season OL was his top priority, and then he did jack but sign a washed up backup who lasted less than half a season. So yeah, I take what they say with a grain of salt.

 

The other element to all of this is, the QB is normally the highest paid player on the team. I don't see a rookie wage scale being in place this season, and if not, I don't see this team paying someone 40M guaranteed who plays any other position but QB. I can see them going with Gabbert to fill the void of not having a franchise guy, and of course someone they can hype to sell tickets. Of course, there's always the chance RW likes a certain National Championship QB with a questionable background.

[Hplarrm]

Buddy said last year going into the off-season OL was his top priority, and then he did jack but sign a washed up backup who lasted less than half a season. So yeah, I take what they say with a grain of salt.

 

 

Actually, I hope Buddy is lying to me and I think anyone who is a true Bills fan has to not only hope is lying but actually is quite successful about fibbing.

 

If you ask me whether I value more hearing the truth from the Bills or having not only pull the wool over my eyes but more importantly fool our opponents about what our true directions and draft choices will be I emphatically say lie to me and lie well.

 

If I was Me; Kiper or some blogger at Pro Football Sneakly then I would care desperately to want Buddy and the Bills to be totally honest.

 

However, what this Bills fan cares about is winning ball games. The advantages of the team successfully lying to me and more important our football opponents is by far the bigger value for anyone who cares about the team.

 

The foolishness of some "journalist" was sharply on display last week where some blogger had the football foolishness to complain bitterly about the Bills staff walking the South Senior Bowl squad through a bunch of ST drills rather than doing what Marvin Lewis did (a tip off right there if they are holding Lewis out as an example of the way things should be done).

 

This self-centered football dumb view might be a reasonable ranting for someone in the business of selling magazines with their "expert" ratings and Combine analysis saying some jock is the next 7th round drafted Andre Reed, but the reality is that what will actually determine most whether an athlete gets drafted and even makes the team, and actually contributes to it as a rookie is ST play. There is no doubt about this.

 

Check the numbers and see how many players drafted in the first round are actually starters (first on the team's depth chart at the end of their first season. From my examining a couple of draft classes in detail (including a draft class considered pretty strong a few years back) only slightly above 50% of 1st round selected players were starters even after a full season of play.

 

The Mel Kipers and ESPNs of the world have actually made it the conventional wisdom that a first round drafted rookie should start in his first year or he is a bust.

 

No, this is not what the facts say.

 

The facts are that yes there is a strong bias among the top 10 picks for starting the first year. However, even this likely has to do with the current player at a position of need being so bad as it does with a clear statement that any rookie is so good.

 

The NFL, even for the best of college players is simply a world of difference from what they faced and played well against in college. Based on what the pros say the big difference for even the best athlete is simply the speed. In college, even in the best conferences, every week you face several players on the opposing squad who simply are not that good or are good at one aspect of the game. Your coaches job is to pick out those weak spots and your job is to pound them. In the pro, all the weakest players are gone or the remaining problems are covered over as best they can be.

 

The reality is that a good chunk of rookies (1/3 and most likely more) will not start as rookies. it diminishes precipitously from there. Yes, the good teams do find a diamond in the rough each year. In fact bad teams like the Bills seem to often find 5th round drafted Kyle Williams who not only starts his rookie year but proves good enough to make the Pro Bowl. Even more outstanding the Bills even developed UDFA Peters into being seen as one of the best LTs in the league.

 

Have the Bills and their scouts sucked at drafting idiots like McCargo. Sure.

 

However, they also deserve credit for getting a Pro Bowl worthy DT in the 5th round.

 

I have much more problem with the Bills coaching staff totally failing to get more production how of consensus 4th best QB Losman than I do with them picking him 4th among the QBs.

 

I have a much bigger problem with the FO extending Bledsoe after a season where he deserved to be cut with us calling him a wash after a great first year here than with them selecting Losman.

 

I have a much bigger problem with the FO deciding Losman was ready to start his second year when even Losman himself said he did not deserve it yet.

 

I have much bigger problems with the FO going out of its way to overpay Dockery and Langston Walker when this ended up meaning they could at best give Peters the third highesr OL contract on the team.

 

The big problem here though with the FO is that even despite their bad problems, the fact Mr. Ralph developed toxic relationships with Polian, Butler, and then TD is the central thread.

 

Concern about the scouts is a minor issue.