AJ GREEN

[NaPolian8693]

Don't draft AJ Green. The team needs to build from the inside out, and strengthen the lines. The Bills have adequate talent at WR with some young guys developing. AJ Green would play out his initial 3-year deal and be out of town on the free agent market in a heartbeat, anyways.

[Geno Smith's Arm]

Don't draft AJ Green. The team needs to build from the inside out, and strengthen the lines. The Bills have adequate talent at WR with some young guys developing. AJ Green would play out his initial 3-year deal and be out of town on the free agent market in a heartbeat, anyways.

 

You could say that about ANY player.

 

I agree that the Bills have decent enough receivers. I don't know much about Green either. But I do know that if he projects to be a rare talent, far and away the best guy on the board, they should pick him.

 

They will still have the 2nd and 3rd round to picks for need.

 

It's funny, because the same guys that DON'T want the Bills to ever take a 1st rd QB ("you can find a QB anywhere. Warner, Brady, Romo...) will they insist that the Bills use their first on O and D lineman, when they can be found in later rounds just as, if not more easily.

 

Interesting stat I just came upon-

 

"Of the four defensive tackles selected with the top pick since 1980 they played 39 seasons with one Pro Bowl appearance (Russell Maryland) between them."

 

 

 

I think the first few picks of the 1st round have to be based on TALENT, unless it's some absurd situation (I know the Bills are absurd, but they aren't so overly talented at ANY position that they can pass up on an elite talent).

[truth on hold]

You could say that about ANY player.

 

I agree that the Bills have decent enough receivers. I don't know much about Green either. But I do know that if he projects to be a rare talent, far and away the best guy on the board, they should pick him.

 

They will still have the 2nd and 3rd round to picks for need.

 

It's funny, because the same guys that DON'T want the Bills to ever take a 1st rd QB ("you can find a QB anywhere. Warner, Brady, Romo...) will they insist that the Bills use their first on O and D lineman, when they can be found in later rounds just as, if not more easily.

 

Interesting stat I just came upon-

 

"Of the four defensive tackles selected with the top pick since 1980 they played 39 seasons with one Pro Bowl appearance (Russell Maryland) between them."

 

I think the first few picks of the 1st round have to be based on TALENT, unless it's some absurd situation (I know the Bills are absurd, but they aren't so overly talented at ANY position that they can pass up on an elite talent).

Some great points, some people think that DT or DE is somehow a "safer" pick at #3. The league is littered with plenty of busts at that position, just like any other. Look no further than Buffalo and you'll find names like Patulski, Dokes and McCargo as tragic counter examples. Even if a guy is decent starter (like Patulski), because the team has a limited payroll, there's a huge cost to the team because by grossly overpaying for the performance of one guy (in this case Patulski got #1 overall money), there's a crowding out effect of what you can pay to others. So you can end up with some decent starters (e.g. Whitner), but not enough resources left to build a winning roster. This is what I see happening with drafting someone like Fairley at 3rd overall. Decent starter? potentially. Pro Bowler? hard to say. Difference maker? doubtful. But for #3 money the answer ought to be "most likely" to all 3 questions.

Edited February 2, 2011 by Joe_the_6_pack

[Nasty]

END OF TOPIC!

 

You dont pass on a Play-Maker Game Breaker, i dont even see a kid like this coming out for the next several years that we may get in position to add to our roster

What wide reciever do you know who made a huge impact in year one. Some have OK years towards the end, many don't break out until year 3. Randy Moss is the only exception I can truely think of. There are also many WR who were suppose to be great and where are they now, i.e. Roy Williams. This draft by the way is full of defensive talent.

[truth on hold]

What wide reciever do you know who made a huge impact in year one. Some have OK years towards the end, many don't break out until year 3. Randy Moss is the only exception I can truely think of. There are also many WR who were suppose to be great and where are they now, i.e. Roy Williams. This draft by the way is full of defensive talent.

Another reason to grab Green if he's there at #3 and concentrate on defense in the other rounds

[Mr. WEO]

You could use that argument about any good player on a bad team. Steve Young didn't lead the Bucs to very many wins, but that doesn't mean it was a mistake for them to acquire him. Nor was getting Hardy Nickerson a bad move on the Bucs' part, even though his presence didn't lead to many wins either. This past season neither the Miami Dolphins nor the Cleveland Browns won very many games, but that doesn't mean that Joe Thomas and Jake Long were wasted draft picks! What it does mean is that the Browns and Dolphins had been more than just a franchise LT away from having a winning record.

 

I agree that Losman, McGahee, Whitner, and Lynch were bad draft picks. But Mike Williams and John McCargo were bad picks as well. I'd say the Bills' drafting problems are the result of the following:

• Poor player evaluation
  
• Too much emphasis on physical measurables, not enough on football intelligence, heart and desire, or the other things teams like the Patriots care about.
  
• Way, way too much emphasis on the RB position!
  
• A willingness to use first round picks on DBs, and then to allow those DBs with the best combination of youth + proven accomplishment to go first-contract-and-out.
  
• A strong willingness to reach for need or for perceived need. No way should Whitner have been taken eighth overall!
  
• Too little emphasis on the offensive line. Since 2001, the Bills have used three first rounders and a second rounder on RBs. In that same span, they used no first or second round picks on LTs, and just one first rounder (and no second rounders) on a RT.
  
• General shortsightedness.

 

Between them, the Whitner and Lynch picks demonstrate almost everything that's wrong with the Bills' front office's approach. Jauron felt he had to have a good SS to make his defense work, and Lawyer Milloy didn't fit his idea of what he was looking for. Not only that, but between them Marv and Jauron decided that SS had to be added right away so that the defense would be credible their first year. That's how they got locked into thinking that they had to take a SS with their first or second pick of the 2006 draft. That rigidity of thought is how they ended up squandering most of the value the eighth overall pick had to offer. (And all the value their second pick in the first round had to offer.)

 

The Lynch pick represented a similar degree of shortsightedness. I realize McGahee's attitude was probably less than perfect. But Lynch has not always been an angel of perfection himself. The larger problem was the thought that the hoped-for upgrade from McGahee to Lynch would be worth the 12th overall pick in the draft. Probably, part of their thought process was that rookie RBs are often expected to have a much greater immediate impact than rookies at other positions. Their focus may have been more on that hoped-for immediate impact than on the long-term benefits of the (theoretical) upgrade of Lynch over McGahee.

 

Typically, having your best RB out on the field implies that your second-best RB is on the bench. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that your best RB gets at least 2/3 of the carries. A situation like this means that any time you upgrade or try to upgrade your RB position, you're taking away opportunities to contribute from the guys you already have. So the net benefit = whatever your new best RB brings to the table - whatever your old best RB had brought to the table. Very seldom over the past ten years have the Bills found that to be much of a net benefit at all!

 

But that logic doesn't apply to most other positions. A team will presumably figure out a way to get its three or four best DEs plenty of playing time over the course of any given game. Likewise, its three best WRs should expect to see plenty of snaps. That's one of the advantages of upgrading the receiving corps or the defensive front-seven over the RB position!

 

Let's say (for the sake of argument) that the Bills project Green to have a significantly better career than any of the DL that will be available when the Bills pick. And let's also say that these hypothetical player evaluations are accurate. If those things were true, drafting Green would not represent a falling back into the error of the Bills' old ways. He'd have the opportunity to contribute, and become the best WR, without sending the second-best WR to the bench. (A situation that doesn't apply to a first round RB.) He'd presumably be here his whole career, which obviously wouldn't apply to a first round DB. His selection wouldn't have been based on a myopic, blinkered focus on one or two positions of extreme "need"--as Marv's first round picks had consistently been.

 

You could argue that an elite WR does not necessarily represent part of a long-term plan to build the Bills into a perpetual winner. But I think a WR pick could be made into part of such a plan. Take the Arizona Cardinals of a few years ago, for example. Their defense was nothing special. Their OL had Mike Gandy as its starting LT. The only special thing about that team was its quarterback and its receiving corps. Those two things, alone, were enough to get them to the Super Bowl. If there's a chance to add an elite WR now, you could take advantage of that chance. Then the expectation would be that you'd add a franchise QB and a solid RT in a future draft. (Or perhaps the RT with a second round pick in this year's draft.) I'm not saying we should mimic the Cardinals exactly. We probably won't end up with a QB as good as Warner, or a receiving corps as good as the one they had. To make up for that, we'll need to be better at other positions than they were.

 

But that doesn't mean that we're not allowed to strengthen the QB and WR positions, in conjunction with an effort to improve the OL and the defensive front-seven.

Agreed, but how do we know that Green is this "once in a decade" player? He had some nice highlite clips but his career is a bit short on games played. He only appeared in 8 games and had decent numbers (great against Auburn). Justin Blackmon had a better year, hands down.

 

A potentially great or actually great WR is only going to bring so much to this offense. People point to Arizona as an example but until Warner showed up, Larry Fitzgerald's performance was mediocre and having him and Boldin together meant nothing to the team. With Warner gone, Fitzgerald is not much help. Moss without Brady or Culpepper hasn't doen much either.

 

If you have a very good young QB up and coming, then you roll the dice on a top 5 WR. People pointing to the folly of Detroit blowing 1st round picks on WR's have a decent argument. The guy throwing the ball is always more important than the guy catching the ball. Brady just won the MVP by spreading the ball around to everyone.

[JohnC]

]People pointing to the folly of Detroit blowing 1st round picks on WR's have a decent argument. The guy throwing the ball is always more important than the guy catching the ball. Brady just won the MVP by spreading the ball around to everyone.

 

The folly Detroit made under McMillian is that the two Williams receivers he drafted were dreadful. They were bad picks at their high draft position simply because they were bad picks. The were similar franchise crippling picks for the same reason that applies to Buffalo, they were wasted high picks. When the Bills under Jauron and clueless Levy drafted Maybin there certainly was a need for a pass rusher. The problem wasn't the position they drafted for it was the incapable player they drafted.

 

If the Bills take a player who is rated at the level they are drafting at then I'm not going to complain. The Bills have a roster with mostly non-discript players. Adding a talent to a talentless roster is not something to complain about, it is something to rejoice over.

 

Making a disputable pick on the first round is not the only way to address a need on a roster. There are the remaining picks, free agency and trades. This cataclysmic attention to the first round is misguided.

[RuntheDamnBall]

The folly Detroit made under McMillian is that the two Williams receivers he drafted were dreadful. They were bad picks at their high draft position simply because they were bad picks. The were similar franchise crippling picks for the same reason that applies to Buffalo, they were wasted high picks. When the Bills under Jauron and clueless Levy drafted Maybin there certainly was a need for a pass rusher. The problem wasn't the position they drafted for it was the incapable player they drafted.

 

If the Bills take a player who is rated at the level they are drafting at then I'm not going to complain. The Bills have a roster with mostly non-discript players. Adding a talent to a talentless roster is not something to complain about, it is something to rejoice over.

 

Making a disputable pick on the first round is not the only way to address a need on a roster. There are the remaining picks, free agency and trades. This cataclysmic attention to the first round is misguided.

Uh, the problem is that everybody in the universe had those two Williams receivers as highly rated receivers. McMillian [sic] was not drafting guys who were out of line at their draft slot. He was drafting guys who were out of line for the Detroit Lions at the time.

 

Roy Williams in fact looked decent with a bunch of schmoes throwing to him. Mike Williams was a #1 overall-rated talent before his eligibility issues, and has finally emerged out of the wilderness somewhat. But going to the Lions after what happened to him in/post-college ball was never going to be a good situation.

[coldstorage5]

If you dont have time, you cant throw. If you cant stop the run, you wont win.

 

A receiver is the last thing we need now. Receivers can be found in the FA market, not drafted kids, or in house.

 

I will so dissapointed if we do this again (Spiller). DL, OT, LB is what we need to improve at, not WR.

[yungmack]

If you cannot stop the run, you will never, ever be a top level team. And the most glaring problem with the Bills for years now has been precisely that. Until that is corrected, adding yet another receiver, no matter how fantastically fabulous, never-before-seen talent, will be a waste of a pick. Said fantastically fabulous, never-before-seen talent cannot exercise those wondrous gifts if he is not on the field...which is exactly what happens when you cannot stop the run as the opponent inexorably eats up clock time.

 

So, Job Number One for OBD is to do all it can to improve greatly the ability to stop the run.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I agree that the Bills have decent enough receivers. I don't know much about Green either. But I do know that if he projects to be a rare talent, far and away the best guy on the board, they should pick him.

 

If Green projects to be that far and away rare talent, why do we think he will be there at #3?

Wouldn't Carolina and Denver be wanting to snatch up that rare, can't miss, far and away best guy on the board?

 

Think about it, folks. The best one can say is that evaluation of Green >>> any DL must be highly subjective.

 

Green is undoubtedly a top WR prospect. He's played 3 years, cut short by injury (2009) and a 4 game suspension (2010).

Most draft analysis have him as a solid top-5 prospect overall

This sudden hyperbole painting him as "far and away the best guy on the board", one we're fools if we pass up, is a little surreal to me.

I'd like him better if he returned for his Senior year, stayed healthy the whole season, and posted >1000 yds.

I don't see a lot of film of him hanging onto the ball when he gets pancaked between two DBs, or out-muscling a safety like he'll have to do in the NFL.

It's pointed out that he lacks speed, and may not make many catches in the open field in the NFL.

 

It's funny, because the same guys that DON'T want the Bills to ever take a 1st rd QB ("you can find a QB anywhere. Warner, Brady, Romo...) will they insist that the Bills use their first on O and D lineman, when they can be found in later rounds just as, if not more easily.

 

I think you're either misunderstanding, or deliberately misstating the viewpoint expressed. I can not recall anyone expressing the view that they DON'T want the Bills to EVER take a 1st round QB.

I can recall people expressing the view that they don't see a sure-fire QB prospect worthy of the 1st round in this draft, and that they don't think QB is the right priority for the Bills right now.

Feel free to provide links to show me wrong, I stand ready to be corrected. I can always be surprised by a viewpoint I read here. I don't think it's common though.

 

Interesting stat I just came upon-

"Of the four defensive tackles selected with the top pick since 1980 they played 39 seasons with one Pro Bowl appearance (Russell Maryland) between them."

 

I guess if you slice a statistical pie small enough, you can define a sliver, but this statistic puzzles me.

My friends at profootball reference only show two DT selected with the top pick overall since 1980.

 

If one searches for DL taken with the top pick overall since 1980, there are 7, with 3 different probowlers and 14 appearances between them.

Check it out: linky

 

I'm not sure why it's relevant to look only at the top pick overall though, or only DT, or that probowl selection is the best marker of a quality player.

I'm more interested in noting that of the 12 DL selected with the 1st 10 picks between 2001 and 2006, 9 started for >5 years, indicating 75% rate of solid long term contributions to the drafting team.

I'm again more interested in noting that of the 10 WR selected with the 1st 10 picks between 2001 and 2006, 4 of the 10 started for >5 years or 40% rate of solid long term contributions to the drafting team.

 

I think the first few picks of the 1st round have to be based on TALENT, unless it's some absurd situation (I know the Bills are absurd, but they aren't so overly talented at ANY position that they can pass up on an elite talent).

 

Sure, choose on talent - but it strikes me as an improbable situation where a player at one position is so demonstrably and wildly more talented than top players at a position of need, that need should be overlooked.

I'm not sure that was the case with Spiller (sure looks like other teams found good DL talent after we picked), and I'm not sold it's the case with Green.

 

Ultimately of course, neither of our viewpoints matter. Nix and the Bills will do what they do do and there's no doing anything about it.

 

Another reason to grab Green if he's there at #3 and concentrate on defense in the other rounds

 

Jt6Pack, I guess my interpretation is all the more reason to grab a top D player at #3 AND concentrate on D fence in other rounds.

 

Our defense is downright offensive

[tennesseeboy]

If Green is all that good and is available at 3 (some have him as the number one overall pick), we might get great value from Cleveland or the Rams for the pick. Getting a serious round one defensive lineman with the number 5 or 14 overall and an extra second round pick for an OT and a TE/QB/OLB in the first two rounds might be a good move.

[Orton's Arm]

Agreed, but how do we know that Green is this "once in a decade" player? He had some nice highlite clips but his career is a bit short on games played. He only appeared in 8 games and had decent numbers (great against Auburn). Justin Blackmon had a better year, hands down.

 

A potentially great or actually great WR is only going to bring so much to this offense. People point to Arizona as an example but until Warner showed up, Larry Fitzgerald's performance was mediocre and having him and Boldin together meant nothing to the team. With Warner gone, Fitzgerald is not much help. Moss without Brady or Culpepper hasn't doen much either.

 

If you have a very good young QB up and coming, then you roll the dice on a top 5 WR. People pointing to the folly of Detroit blowing 1st round picks on WR's have a decent argument. The guy throwing the ball is always more important than the guy catching the ball. Brady just won the MVP by spreading the ball around to everyone.

First, I agree that you don't want to use a first round pick on a player who hasn't played much. A player's performance in games is a much more reliable indicator of what he can bring to the NFL than is his performance in workouts. But a lot of that performance in games is subject to random variation.

 

You can see that same kind of random variation at the NFL level. Take Byrd for example. For a long stretch during his rookie year, he was intercepting two passes a game. Had he sustained that pace over an entire season, he would have had 32 INTs for the year. An INT rate like that is absolutely ridiculous, and is probably twice as many INTs as anyone in the NFL has ever had in a single season. But he had just one INT his second season, because the same random variation which had worked for him his rookie year worked against him his second year. Someone who looked just at his rookie year tape would overestimate Byrd's effect as a ball hawk, while someone who looked just at his second year would underestimate it. That's why, when evaluating college players, it's so important to look at multiple years of play, rather than focusing on just one good year.

 

In Green's freshman year, he had 963 receiving yards, which led the entire SEC. In his injury-shortened sophomore year, he had 751 receiving yards. He followed that up with a very good junior year. (Though he'd been suspended his first four games for having sold his Independence Bowl jersey to some guy.) In his junior year, his team's offense averaged 24 points per game without him, and 40 points per game with him.

 

I realize none of the above guarantees he'll be a success at the NFL level. In particular, he (like any other rookie) will find it a lot harder to do to NFL DBs what he did to college DBs. The only point I'm making with this is that he cannot be dismissed as a one-year wonder.

 

To address your other point: prior to Warner's arrival in Arizona, their quarterback was Matt Leinart. After his departure, they went back to Leinart, as well as to other guys of that same caliber. Fitzpatrick isn't within shouting distance of Warner as a quarterback, but he's considerably better than guys like Leinart or the QBs Detroit has had recently. If we get an elite WR, it's not like his talents will be completely wasted, as they would have been with Leinart at QB. That said, I think that an upgrade at QB needs to occur within the next two years or so, and has to be part of the long-term plan. The Bills could attempt an upgrade this year, for example by taking Ponder in the second round. Or they could attempt one next year by trying to position themselves to take Luck. The latter would involve trading away as much as they can in this year's draft for first round picks in next year's draft. If the Bills walk into the 2012 draft with multiple picks in the top-10, and at least one pick in the top-5, they'll be in a position to make someone a very tempting offer for Luck! But to achieve that, they'll have to turn their first (and probably second) round in this year's draft into picks in the 2012 draft. Obviously going down that road would prevent the Bills from drafting Green.

 

As for the effect Green could have on the offense, consider the effect Randy Moss had! In 2006 (the year before Moss arrived), Tom Brady averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt. In 2007, with Moss around, that average jumped to 8.3! Brady's career average is 7.4 yards per attempt, so you can see that Moss played an important role in helping Brady perform at well above his usual average.

[JohnC]

Uh, the problem is that everybody in the universe had those two Williams receivers as highly rated receivers. McMillian [sic] was not drafting guys who were out of line at their draft slot. He was drafting guys who were out of line for the Detroit Lions at the time.

 

Roy Williams in fact looked decent with a bunch of schmoes throwing to him. Mike Williams was a #1 overall-rated talent before his eligibility issues, and has finally emerged out of the wilderness somewhat. But going to the Lions after what happened to him in/post-college ball was never going to be a good situation.

 

Your response is very reasoned. I appreciate it. But I don't totally agree. With respect to Mike Williams from USC there certainly were red flags popping up over his maturity level and also questions regarding his physical skills transferring to the pros. His timed runs were slow for such a high receiver pick and there were questions that although he was able to physically dominate college players he wouldn't be able to create the same mismatchs with pro defenders. Even in college he didn't gain much separation due to his lack of speed and quickness, he simply outmuscled the less developed defenders. My point on him is that McMillan simply made a bad pick.

 

As with Buffalo under Modrak there is a lot of attention paid to first round misses. But that is simply a reflection of the poor scouting job done overall. If you rate McMillan and Modrak on their other picks their body of work is in general mediocre. My point all along on this topic is that if a team makes quality picks when they are drafting, no matter the position, over time the roster is going to be upgraded and the team will be competitive.

 

For the Bills Maybin was a bad pick, no matter the positon he played. If you factor in some of the players who were available for us it is stupifying. Losman was a physically well- tooled player who lacked the instincts for the game. That was a scouting misjudment. The Bills needed a young qb to develop but they selected the wrong prospect. Under Jauron the Bills claimed they needed a tall receiver for the red zone. That was obvious. So they selected James Hardy, a tall athlete, who couldn't master the position. That was another scouting mistep that had nothing to do with the position the player paid as it had to do with our team's personnel department doing a bad job. As it turned out a free agent draftee, David Nelson, outperformed the more highly drafted and more athletic Hardy simply because he is a better football player.

 

The Baltimore Ravens under Newsome are immensely better drafters than the Bills who usually draft ahead of them. Their approach is simple: take the highest rated players on your board no matter the position. Of course their is some deviation from that philosphy due to need but in general their approach is to take the best player.

[tennesseeboy]

seems Cleveland might be hot for the chance to get AJ Green...perhaps worth pursuing a trade down option?

 

http://www.cleveland.com/dsn/index.ssf/2011/01/the_browns_need_to_go_green_in_2011.html#incart_mce

[Orton's Arm]

seems Cleveland might be hot for the chance to get AJ Green...perhaps worth pursuing a trade down option?

 

http://www.cleveland.com/dsn/index.ssf/2011/01/the_browns_need_to_go_green_in_2011.html#incart_mce

That's tempting! The third overall pick is worth 2200 points. The 6th overall pick (the one the Browns have) is worth 1600 points. So they'd need to give us their first and second round pick in this year's draft to make the trade worthwhile. But quite frankly, I'd much rather have their first round pick in next year's draft than their second rounder this year!

Edited February 2, 2011 by Edwards' Arm

[tennesseeboy]

I would love to get their first round next year, but their second and fourth this year would be terrific and let us get some real talent in here to rebuild on. If Fairley goes number one and someone other than Green goes number two Cleveland will have a very tempting couple of minutes to make something happen. Hopefully we will be ready if the phbone call comes.

 

Let's see...

 

Robert Quinn or better DE

Anthony Costanzo

Luke Stocker

before we get to round 3...sounds good to me...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

In Green's freshman year, he had 963 receiving yards, which led the entire SEC. In his injury-shortened sophomore year, he had 751 receiving yards. He followed that up with a very good junior year. (Though he'd been suspended his first four games for having sold his Independence Bowl jersey to some guy.) In his junior year, his team's offense averaged 24 points per game without him, and 40 points per game with him. (....)

I realize none of the above guarantees he'll be a success at the NFL level. In particular, he (like any other rookie) will find it a lot harder to do to NFL DBs what he did to college DBs. The only point I'm making with this is that he cannot be dismissed as a one-year wonder.

 

I agree, Green has added value consistently. I would still feel better about him if he went back for his senior season and played all the way through it. Could just be me.

I do feel better about a draft choice such as Green than (say) Newton who has had one fantastic year - but only one fantastic year.

 

Going to your Byrd example: do you think Cover 2 to man switch had a lot to do with dropping Byrds pick stats?

 

To address your other point: prior to Warner's arrival in Arizona, their quarterback was Matt Leinart. After his departure, they went back to Leinart, as well as to other guys of that same caliber. Fitzpatrick isn't within shouting distance of Warner as a quarterback, but he's considerably better than guys like Leinart or the QBs Detroit has had recently.

 

I watched Warner burst on the StL scene. I watched him fade, and be shipped off, and play "meh" with the Giants, then be resurrected in Az.

And I agree with you that Fitz isn't Warner, but I think he has the potential to be within loud talking distance of Warner.

He has many of the same traits that make Warner, Warner -- the ability to read-and-react, the elusiveness, the ability to make guys miss, the scrambling.

What he's missing is the consistent accuracy that Warner had, and the "sync" with his receivers on route running.

Warner earned that accuracy in the Arena league, throwing throwing throwing.

 

It really depends upon Fitz. I think Fitz had "settled" a bit into the role of career backup. He took a step this season - significantly better.

If the opportunity here lights his fire, and he works hard and smart this off-season, then puts in some extra time with his wideouts in preseason, he might take another step and surprise us.

 

I think Fitz and the O would benefit by availability of a true #1 wideout - a clutch guy with sure hands who puts it away after the catch.

 

I think the Bills would benefit more at this time from making a move towards a dominant D.

 

That said, I think that an upgrade at QB needs to occur within the next two years or so, and has to be part of the long-term plan. The Bills could attempt an upgrade this year, for example by taking Ponder in the second round. Or they could attempt one next year by trying to position themselves to take Luck. The latter would involve trading away as much as they can in this year's draft for first round picks in next year's draft. If the Bills walk into the 2012 draft with multiple picks in the top-10, and at least one pick in the top-5, they'll be in a position to make someone a very tempting offer for Luck! But to achieve that, they'll have to turn their first (and probably second) round in this year's draft into picks in the 2012 draft. Obviously going down that road would prevent the Bills from drafting Green.

 

I think it would be a huge mistake for the Bills to embark on a pick-stocking strategy when they have so many needs, especially with a specific player as the end goal.

For all we know, Luck could have a career-ending injury next year, or a career-questioning injury (like Kelly) that would drop his value.

 

This may be a place where you and I agree to disagree? Just as I think TB should have gone after Reggie White and a stronger D when they went after Young, Bo Jackson, and Testeverde.

 

I don't disagree with the need for a QB upgrade as part of a long-term plan. I am curious why you think Ponder will go in the 2nd round?

And why you think two years is the time?

 

Thanks!

[Koufax]

Right, but we have added Troup, Carrington, Merriman, Moats, Edwards to our front 7. We need to add more, but that doesn't mean it has to be at #3.

 

Some reasons we might be better against the run in 2011:

 

1) Troup, Carrington, Moats get better in year 2 than as rookies (remember, Kyle was a 5th rounder and not a pro bowler as a rookie).

 

2) Everybody learns the scheme and gets better at it (typical in year 2 of a change in scheme)

 

3) Merriman stays healthy and contributes

 

4) We add a front 7 impact player at #3

 

5) We add front 7 contributors after round 1.

 

6) We add front 7 contributors in free agency.

 

7) DW helps this team be coached better and use the talent on the defense to perform better (whether hybrid or just doing better 3-4)

 

Those seem like a lot of places for improvement, and not all loaded into the #3 pick. I actually think we will be better off defensively if we could improve our pass rushing than our run stopping with #3 in a perfect world.

 

But in an imperfect world, at #3 I want to get the best football player possible...someone we think will go to Hawaii with a Bills helmet and will be able to at least dream of Canton. I would love it to be our Bruce Smith or Jim Kelly, but I don't mind if it is our Andre Reed or Bennett or Ballard, as long as he is truly an excellent football player at whatever position he plays.

 

If you cannot stop the run, you will never, ever be a top level team. And the most glaring problem with the Bills for years now has been precisely that. Until that is corrected, adding yet another receiver, no matter how fantastically fabulous, never-before-seen talent, will be a waste of a pick. Said fantastically fabulous, never-before-seen talent cannot exercise those wondrous gifts if he is not on the field...which is exactly what happens when you cannot stop the run as the opponent inexorably eats up clock time.

 

So, Job Number One for OBD is to do all it can to improve greatly the ability to stop the run.

[Orton's Arm]

I agree, Green has added value consistently. I would still feel better about him if he went back for his senior season and played all the way through it. Could just be me.

I do feel better about a draft choice such as Green than (say) Newton who has had one fantastic year - but only one fantastic year.

 

Going to your Byrd example: do you think Cover 2 to man switch had a lot to do with dropping Byrds pick stats?

 

I watched Warner burst on the StL scene. I watched him fade, and be shipped off, and play "meh" with the Giants, then be resurrected in Az.

And I agree with you that Fitz isn't Warner, but I think he has the potential to be within loud talking distance of Warner.

He has many of the same traits that make Warner, Warner -- the ability to read-and-react, the elusiveness, the ability to make guys miss, the scrambling.

What he's missing is the consistent accuracy that Warner had, and the "sync" with his receivers on route running.

Warner earned that accuracy in the Arena league, throwing throwing throwing.

 

It really depends upon Fitz. I think Fitz had "settled" a bit into the role of career backup. He took a step this season - significantly better.

If the opportunity here lights his fire, and he works hard and smart this off-season, then puts in some extra time with his wideouts in preseason, he might take another step and surprise us.

 

I think Fitz and the O would benefit by availability of a true #1 wideout - a clutch guy with sure hands who puts it away after the catch.

 

I think the Bills would benefit more at this time from making a move towards a dominant D.

 

 

 

I think it would be a huge mistake for the Bills to embark on a pick-stocking strategy when they have so many needs, especially with a specific player as the end goal.

For all we know, Luck could have a career-ending injury next year, or a career-questioning injury (like Kelly) that would drop his value.

 

This may be a place where you and I agree to disagree? Just as I think TB should have gone after Reggie White and a stronger D when they went after Young, Bo Jackson, and Testeverde.

 

I don't disagree with the need for a QB upgrade as part of a long-term plan. I am curious why you think Ponder will go in the 2nd round?

And why you think two years is the time?

 

Thanks!

I too would prefer a player with four years of college production under his belt versus just three. Obviously, more data is better than less.

 

As for Fitz someday being within loud speaking distance of Warner, let's start by looking at the numbers. Over the course of his career, Fitz averaged 6.0 yards per attempt. This past season he averaged 6.8. To put that into perspective, Trent Edwards' career average is 6.5 yards per attempt. Kurt Warner's career average is 7.9 yards per attempt, which is ridiculously good! Even better than Peyton Manning's average, in fact.

 

I agree that Fitz has many of the qualities you look for in your starting QB. But like you pointed out yourself, he doesn't have consistent accuracy. That lack of accuracy is why his averages have so much more in common with Edwards' than with Warner's. Fitzpatrick is going into his seventh year. Of quarterbacks with six years of NFL experience under their belts, how many were able to make dramatic improvements to the accuracy of their throws? No examples spring immediately to my mind, but maybe I'm missing someone. But even if I am, I think that we have to assume that the level of accuracy we've seen from Fitz in the past is about what we're likely to get from him in the future. That means he's no Warner.

 

As for Ponder: prior to the start of the 2010 season, I'd seen his name thrown around as a potential first round pick. Nothing that happened in 2010 reduced my opinion of him, but he seems to have gotten blamed for things that may not be his fault. (Such as the defense playing worse, or the decline in his team's overall record.) He also played hurt for much of the year, which affected his production. Given all this, I think there's a good chance he'll still be available early in the second round. But if I'm wrong about that, the Bills could always use their second round pick on some other player instead.

 

As for stockpiling picks, now is exactly the time the Bills should do so! Let's say you have a Peyton Manning or a Tom Brady on your roster, and let's say he's getting on in years. A player like that means you have a window of opportunity that's open now but is unlikely to be open indefinitely. In a situation like that your focus should be more on the short-term, with the idea of maximizing the number of Super Bowl rings your Manning or Brady ends his career with.

 

But the Bills have not yet acquired their Manning or Brady, which means their window of opportunity has not yet opened. Let's say (for the sake of argument) that we're able to turn our first round pick in this year's draft into three first rounders in next year's, and our second rounder this year into yet another first rounder in next year's draft. That would give us a total of five first round picks (including our own) heading into 2012. With picks like those, the Bills could open up the window of opportunity I described (by acquiring a franchise QB) and could potentially fill other needs as well. Short-term harm to the team's record would only serve to improve our draft position.

 

Obviously, there's no guarantee that we'd be able to do any of what I've described. But that doesn't mean it's not worth attempting. The nice thing here is that the first part of the plan makes sense even if the second part can't be executed. If, for example, we're able to acquire some or all of the additional first round picks I hope for from the 2012 draft, those picks would be great to have even if they can't be converted into Andrew Luck.