AJ GREEN

[truth on hold]

I agree.

 

A J Green is going to be the pick if Fairley is off the board.

 

It is obvious that the Bills need defensive help, but I do believe people are forgetting that they have 7 more draft picks in the draft.

 

It would also allow the Bills to trade away the under-achieving Lee Evans for another draft pick(possibly a 3rd?).

 

IMO, AJ Green is better at his position than any of the other defensive top 5 picks are at their respective positions(not including Fairley).

Green is the pick even if Fairley is there. imo there are only 2 options if Green is there at 3:

 

- draft him

- trade him for a boatload of pics.

 

There isnt a front 7 defender worth anywhere near a #3 overall in this year's draft.

 

But between now and draft day I think Panthers and Broncos come to their senses and he doesn't fall to us at 3.

 

Edited January 31, 2011 by Joe_the_6_pack

[RuntheDamnBall]

Rogers and Williams were "drafting for need" picks. Only Calvin Johnson was considered "best player available." And you can find players at any position that were drafted low (Tom Brady 6th RD) or heck not drafted at all (James Harrison.) Look at the 2006 draft (gives guys 5 years to prove themselves): Of the 9 probowlers drafted after Rd 3, only 1 (Brandon Marshall) is a WR.

 

2006 Draft

 

Look, I love defense too and we sure need it. And Im surprised Im arguing for WR at #3 too. But the guy is just that good. Period

That's true. In one draft, only one Pro Bowler is a WR drafted after the first three rounds. That's a good reason to ignore late-round steals at the position like Marques Colston (R7), Donald Driver (R7), Houshmandzadeh (R7), our emerging threat in Steve Johnson (R7), Pierre Garcon (R6), Wes Welker (UDFA), and plenty of other guys that other teams wished they drafted instead of the likes of Rae Carruth, Yatil Green, Marcus Nash, Peter Warrick, R. Jay Soward, Sylvester Morris, Freddie Mitchell, Koren Robinson, Rod Gardner and David Terrell.

 

Mike Williams of the Lions was a draft for need pick? Are you out of your mind? I'll even spot you Roy Williams. But after spending 2 top ten draft picks on receivers in the three prior drafts, WR was still a position of need at the #10 position?

 

How's the broadcast gig going, Mr. Millen?

 

If we do take Green, then we better be able to find someone who's willing to trade for Evans.

It's OK, we'll be able to spin another first-rounder into gold (a.k.a. a fifth-round pick).

 

But you know, once-in-a-lifetime receiving threats only come once in a lifetime (well, then, and also via trade for a fourth-rounder).

[Ghost of Rob Johnson]

That's true. In one draft, only one Pro Bowler is a WR drafted after the first three rounds. That's a good reason to ignore late-round steals at the position like Marques Colston (R7), Donald Driver (R7), Houshmandzadeh (R7), our emerging threat in Steve Johnson (R7), Pierre Garcon (R6), Wes Welker (UDFA), and plenty of other guys that other teams wished they drafted instead of the likes of Rae Carruth, Yatil Green, Marcus Nash, Peter Warrick, R. Jay Soward, Sylvester Morris, Freddie Mitchell, Koren Robinson, Rod Gardner and David Terrell.

You can play the first round bust late round steal game with any position on the field. It's really not a viable argument against taking WR at #3.

Edited January 31, 2011 by Ghost of Rob Johnson

[RuntheDamnBall]

You can play the first round bust late round steal game with any position on the field. It's really not a viable argument.

I agree only to a point. Bad teams will be more likely to see their players bust because the coaching staff and FO aren't putting them in a position to succeed. Still, you can't argue that Detroit and Buffalo have made critical missteps by choosing players with more flash at skill positions instead of concentrating on a winning foundation.

 

A WR will never, ever help what ails the team the most - its run defense. It's hardly ever been addressed in the draft except for MAYBE in R2/3 last season. If you waste the picks on positions that don't provide the foundation, you're never going to succeed.

[JohnC]

I wouldn't argue with the Johnson pick, only because Joe Thomas, Revis and Patrick Willis have turned out to be the only comparably-rated picks in that round. Would any of those guys have helped more? Hard to say. But their organizational stability is the big issue, and a large part of that had been Matt Millen pissing away first rounder after first rounder on receivers.

 

When Matt Millen was finally and mercifully let go Martin Mayhew took over the operation. One of the first things he did was draft Matthew Stafford with the first overall pick. Once they got their franchise qb, admittedly hurt the past couple of years, they then moved on to address their other needs. There is no doubt that Stafford has taken a beating playing on a bad team. But now that the team has some quality players and he has some hard-earned experience their prospects are much more promising.

 

Last year, over the last half of the season the worn out and abused Lion fans were able to see a glimmer of hope. The recipe for a turn-around for any franchise is to make good picks, and eventually things will swing to the positive side. Stringing together a few quality drafts is the proven way to building a competitive team. There is no other way, or at least. a better way to do it.

 

Should the Bills take a qb with their first pick? It depends on how they rate the top qbs in this draft. If they believe they have identified a franchise qb then I would like to see them use their high pick to get that caliber on the roster as soon as possible so they can start the qb developmental process. The best case scenario is for them to trade down and then make their qb selection, using the brunt of the remaining picks to address some of their defensive needs.

[RuntheDamnBall]

When Matt Millen was finally and mercifully let go Martin Mayhew took over the operation. One of the first things he did was draft Matthew Stafford with the first overall pick. Once they got their franchise qb, admittedly hurt the past couple of years, they then moved on to address their other needs. There is no doubt that Stafford has taken a beating playing on a bad team. But now that the team has some quality players and he has some hard-earned experience their prospects are much more promising.

 

Last year, over the last half of the season the worn out and abused Lion fans were able to see a glimmer of hope. The recipe for a turn-around for any franchise is to make good picks, and eventually things will swing to the positive side. Stringing together a few quality drafts is the proven way to building a competitive team. There is no other way, or at least. a better way to do it.

 

Should the Bills take a qb with their first pick? It depends on how they rate the top qbs in this draft. If they believe they have identified a franchise qb then I would like to see them use their high pick to get that caliber on the roster as soon as possible so they can start the qb developmental process. The best case scenario is for them to trade down and then make their qb selection, using the brunt of the remaining picks to address some of their defensive needs.

Good post. I, too, hope for a trade down, but we all know it takes at least two and you just can't pin your hopes or your entire draft on that potentiality. I just REALLY hope that whatever their thoughts are about QB, that they leave no stone unturned in examining these guys.

[John from Riverside]

because we couldnt score, unless we can get Fairly no other defensive player is going to make an impact

 

 

 

 

EPIC fail

[Typical TBD Guy]

There are two debates going on in this thread.

 

The first deals with the opposing draft strategies of BPA vs. need. I lean heavily toward the BPA approach. Drafting for need tends to leave you with too many John McCargo types on the roster. There are other ways to fill your roster holes. For one thing, there are seven rounds in the draft - not one. But there's also free agency. And you can also trade some of your players at positions of surplus for players at positions of need. It's all a matter of degree, of course. Take the future Hall of Fame WR over the future marginal Pro Bowl DE, but definitely take the future Hall of Fame DE over the future Hall of Fame WR.

 

The second and far more interesting debate is this: how good is AJ Green, in comparison to Fairley/Bowers/Dareus/Quinn/Miller? Is Green the "next Randy Moss/Calvin Johnson?" Superlatives like these get thrown around way too often at this time of year. If Green really is that good, what does that say about Julio Jones, a WR who as recently as a couple months ago was thought to be neck-and-neck with Green for best WR in the draft?

 

I will personally not throw a childish tantrum if the Bills pick Green at #3, as their scouting work is (hopefully) more thorough than my YouTube viewing and internet mock draft reads. However, my opinion at the moment is that Green isn't even among the top 3 talents in this year's draft. I actually have him as 4th best prospect, right behind Fairley and Bowers and Quinn who each also happen to be players at dire need positions in the front 7.

[RuntheDamnBall]

There are two debates going on in this thread.

 

The first deals with the opposing draft strategies of BPA vs. need. I lean heavily toward the BPA approach. Drafting for need tends to leave you with too many John McCargo types on the roster.

The rest I agree with, but to me the biggest issue with the McCargo situation was not picking him, but trading up for him (same with Losman). Panicking when your need areas appear to be draining from the draft board is probably the #1 way to lose on draft weekend, unless you're certain the guy can't bust (and are you ever?). I'm not saying he would have panned out, but those extra picks lost hurt more than the lack of production from the individual players drafted.

[Ghost of Rob Johnson]

That's true. In one draft, only one Pro Bowler is a WR drafted after the first three rounds. That's a good reason to ignore late-round steals at the position like Marques Colston (R7), Donald Driver (R7), Houshmandzadeh (R7), our emerging threat in Steve Johnson (R7), Pierre Garcon (R6), Wes Welker (UDFA), and plenty of other guys that other teams wished they drafted instead of the likes of Rae Carruth, Yatil Green, Marcus Nash, Peter Warrick, R. Jay Soward, Sylvester Morris, Freddie Mitchell, Koren Robinson, Rod Gardner and David Terrell.

I agree only to a point. Bad teams will be more likely to see their players bust because the coaching staff and FO aren't putting them in a position to succeed. Still, you can't argue that Detroit and Buffalo have made critical missteps by choosing players with more flash at skill positions instead of concentrating on a winning foundation.

 

A WR will never, ever help what ails the team the most - its run defense. It's hardly ever been addressed in the draft except for MAYBE in R2/3 last season. If you waste the picks on positions that don't provide the foundation, you're never going to succeed.

The players you listed spanned many teams, as do the players that bust or succeed at other positions. The drafting team is irrelevant to the argument. Unless I misunderstood what you were getting at with your list.

 

Also, it's not as though the Bills first round pick is their only outlet for getting players nor is it the last 1st round pick they will ever have. Championship teams are good in all facets of the game, therefore good players are needed all over the field.

Edited January 31, 2011 by Ghost of Rob Johnson

[1billsfan]

EPIC fail

 

After Fairley, every single one of these guys (Dareus, Bowers, Quinn, Miller, Jordan, Kerrigan, Clayborn) has big question marks.

 

Finding which guy is going to be the "great" one is a monumental task (gamble?). Because chances are, only two at the most will be really good out of this suspect group.

 

That's why I'm warming up to the possibility of drafting Green. He's hands down the real deal.

 

Hopefully one of these defensive guys completely blows away the competition at the combine and we'll be able to safely pick a defensive pro bowl monster player at #3.

[RuntheDamnBall]

The players you listed spanned many teams, as do the players that bust or succeed at other positions. The drafting team is irrelevant to the argument. Unless I misunderstood what you were getting at with your list.

 

Also, it's not as though the Bills first round pick is their only outlet for getting players nor is it the last 1st round pick they will ever have. Championship teams are good in all facets of the game, therefore good players are needed all over the field.

My list was about a few things:

Good WRs who can make a great impact are historically available all throughout the draft. If we don't get AJ Green there will be a very good receiver on days 2-3 picked.

 

I think the difference between Fairley (if available) and the drop-off in later rounds vs. Green and the drop-off in later rounds is VAST.

that

I agree that championship teams win throughout the draft, and are good in all facets of the game, but I will argue that few championship teams use their top picks to address skill positions that are at least adequately stocked, when they have gaping holes in the trenches / front 7.

[PromoTheRobot]

After Fairley, every single one of these guys (Dareus, Bowers, Quinn, Miller, Jordan, Kerrigan, Clayborn) has big question marks.

 

Finding which guy is going to be the "great" one is a monumental task (gamble?). Because chances are, only two at the most will be really good out of this suspect group.

 

That's why I'm warming up to the possibility of drafting Green. He's hands down the real deal.

 

Hopefully one of these defensive guys completely blows away the competition at the combine and we'll be able to safely pick a defensive pro bowl monster player at #3.

I love how players like AJ Green are "guaranteed" to be awesome.

 

PTR

[LABills08]

After Fairley, every single one of these guys (Dareus, Bowers, Quinn, Miller, Jordan, Kerrigan, Clayborn) has big question marks.

 

Finding which guy is going to be the "great" one is a monumental task (gamble?). Because chances are, only two at the most will be really good out of this suspect group.

 

That's why I'm warming up to the possibility of drafting Green. He's hands down the real deal.

 

Hopefully one of these defensive guys completely blows away the competition at the combine and we'll be able to safely pick a defensive pro bowl monster player at #3.

 

First off, and with all due respect, how do any of those other guys you listed have bigger question marks than Fairley? There has already been a tremendous amount of speculation over Fairley's stock dropping due to question marks like his mental makeup, his character on and off the field and the fact that he, like many in this draft, only has one dominant season under his belt. In fact, in terms of consistency, he is way more of a question mark than guys like Dareus and Miller.

 

That being said, I agree that overall, the top of the draft has a lot of question marks. But, I don't think its all that different from most years aside from there being no QB guaranteed to go #1 overall. Fairley and Bowers are considered the can't miss guys bc of their domination last year, but neither of them have put up consistent numbers over their entire careers. Dareus, while having ups and downs this season, is generally considered the best bet. You know what you are going to get. His domination wasn't as overt as what Bowers and Fairley did this year, but he was still performing very will despite injury setbacks. Von Miller blew up in the senior bowl (Link) and has dominated for two years in a row. In fact, not sure how many people know this, but he led the nation in sacks in 2009 with 17. And this past year he netted 11 sacks, which isn't too shabby. I know some people are having fun drawing comparisons to Maybin, but they are completely unfounded. Aside from the fact that both appear undersized, there is really nothing similar about them. Miller is a sideline to sideline run defender and has played OLB his entire career. He would be making as lateral a transition as possible for a college OLB going to the NFL and playing in a 3-4 scheme. In fact, as it stands now, he is my pick for the Bills at 3. He is everything they need right now on defense.

 

Now, I agree that AJ Green is an explosive player who will probably have a great career, but so what? Look at some of the can't miss receivers in past years and look at how they have helped their teams. Fitzgerald, C. Johnson, Crabtree and D. Bryant all come to mind first as can't miss players in their respective drafts. A few of these guys (Johnson and Crabtree) were said to possibly be the best overall talents in their drafts. And, while some have fared better than others, all 4 of these guys generally have played very well (obviously Johnson and Fitzgerald are the best). But the kick is, NONE of these guys had a direct impact on their respective teams that aided in a turnaround. While its too early to judge Bryant and maybe Crabtree, Johnson has been dominate and yet the Lions have still struggled. Fitzgerald had his years linking up with Warner, but he has only played on 2 Cardinal teams that made the playoffs. And he's been in the league for 7 years. But look at guys like Clay Matthews and how he changed the face of the Packer's defense immediately. I think the Bills 100% need to draft a defensive playmaker. Taking AJ Green would be the Detroit Lions way of rebuilding and that is a proven disaster.

Edited January 31, 2011 by Union2008

[Ghost of Rob Johnson]

My list was about a few things:

Good WRs who can make a great impact are historically available all throughout the draft. If we don't get AJ Green there will be a very good receiver on days 2-3 picked.

I think the difference between Fairley (if available) and the drop-off in later rounds vs. Green and the drop-off in later rounds is VAST.

that

I agree that championship teams win throughout the draft, and are good in all facets of the game, but I will argue that few championship teams use their top picks to address skill positions that are at least adequately stocked, when they have gaping holes in the trenches / front 7.

I'm not certain about this, as this is supposedly a very deep draft for DL. However, using historical late round WRs as an argument for this doesn't work, as there are as many if not more first round DLs who bust, and many late round DLs that work out, just the same.

 

Look at the last couple of years of first round Defensive Linemen:

 

Dewayne Robertson (4th overall), Johnathan Sullivan (6th), Jimmy Kennedy (12th), Gaines Adams (4th overall), Jamaal Anderson (8th), Amobi Okoye (10th), Adam Carriker (13th), Justin Harrell (16th), Jarvis Moss (17th), Chris Long (2nd, had nine sacks last year but is he worth the 2nd overall pick/money?), Derrick Harvey (7th), Lawrence Jackson (28th), Kentwan Balmer (29th).

 

Meanwhile there's Jared Allen (R4), Justin Tuck (R3), Trent Cole (R5), Pat Williams (undrafted), Robert Mathis (R5), Jay Ratliff (R7), Tony Brown (undrafted), and our very own Kyle Williams (R5).

 

Like I said, you can play this game with any position, in fact looking at the historical drafts it seems like you're more likely to find a lineman on days 2-3, or at least less likely to find a bust in the first round.

Edited January 31, 2011 by Ghost of Rob Johnson

[1billsfan]

First off, and with all due respect, how do any of those other guys you listed have bigger question marks than Fairley? There has already been a tremendous amount of speculation over Fairley's stock dropping due to question marks like his mental makeup, his character on and off the field and the fact that he, like many in this draft, only has one dominant season under his belt. In fact, in terms of consistency, he is way more of a question mark than guys like Dareus and Miller.

 

That being said, I agree that overall, the top of the draft has a lot of question marks. But, I don't think its all that different from most years aside from there being no QB guaranteed to go #1 overall. Fairley and Bowers are considered the can't miss guys bc of their domination last year, but neither of them have put up consistent numbers over their entire careers. Dareus, while having ups and downs this season, is generally considered the best bet. You know what you are going to get. His domination wasn't as overt as what Bowers and Fairley did this year, but he was still performing very will despite injury setbacks. Von Miller blew up in the senior bowl (Link) and has dominated for two years in a row. In fact, not sure how many people know this, but he led the nation in sacks in 2009 with 17. And this past year he netted 11 sacks, which isn't too shabby. I know some people are having fun drawing comparisons to Maybin, but they are completely unfounded. Aside from the fact that both appear undersized, there is really nothing similar about them. Miller is a sideline to sideline run defender and has played OLB his entire career. He would be making as lateral a transition as possible for a college OLB going to the NFL and playing in a 3-4 scheme. In fact, as it stands now, he is my pick for the Bills at 3. He is everything they need right now on defense.

 

Now, I agree that AJ Green is an explosive player who will probably have a great career, but so what? Look at some of the can't miss receivers in past years and look at how they have helped their teams. Fitzgerald, C. Johnson, Crabtree and D. Bryant all come to mind first as can't miss players in their respective drafts. A few of these guys (Johnson and Crabtree) were said to possibly be the best overall talents in their drafts. And, while some have fared better than others, all 4 of these guys generally have played very well (obviously Johnson and Fitzgerald are the best). But the kick is, NONE of these guys had a direct impact on their respective teams that aided in a turnaround. While its too early to judge Bryant and maybe Crabtree, Johnson has been dominate and yet the Lions have still struggled. Fitzgerald had his years linking up with Warner, but he has only played on 2 Cardinal teams that made the playoffs. And he's been in the league for 7 years. But look at guys like Clay Matthews and how he changed the face of the Packer's defense immediately. I think the Bills 100% need to draft a defensive playmaker. Taking AJ Green would be the Detroit Lions way of rebuilding and that is a proven disaster.

 

Fairley is a beast who's talents dwarf these other guys. He's the second coming of Warren Sapp.

 

Bowers screams slacker NFL player to me.

 

Dareus seems like he'll be just a "solid" D line guy. I'm looking for Suh type talent at #3.

 

Miller looks small to me. Sorry, but that concerns me. I like his play on the field, but will he be swallowed up at the next level?

 

I'm starting to think that Green is the ultimate safe pick if he's there. We do have a bunch more picks to concentrate on the defense. The NFL is a passing league and we'd have one of the top receiving corps in the league if he's picked by the Bills.

[LABills08]

Here is more on Von Miller (Link) not to hijack a thread devoted to AJ Green, but rather to further make the argument that he is the guy the Bills need, not Green.

[Ghost of Rob Johnson]

While its too early to judge Bryant and maybe Crabtree, Johnson has been dominate and yet the Lions have still struggled. Fitzgerald had his years linking up with Warner, but he has only played on 2 Cardinal teams that made the playoffs. And he's been in the league for 7 years. But look at guys like Clay Matthews and how he changed the face of the Packer's defense immediately. I think the Bills 100% need to draft a defensive playmaker. Taking AJ Green would be the Detroit Lions way of rebuilding and that is a proven disaster.

Didn't the Lions take Suh last year? So wouldnt the defensive playmaker argument apply to him as well? So following your line of thinking the defensive playmaker route is a disaster also.

[LABills08]

Fairley is a beast who's talents dwarf these other guys. He's the second coming of Warren Sapp.

 

Bowers screams slacker NFL player to me.

 

Dareus seems like he'll be just a "solid" D line guy. I'm looking for Suh type talent at #3.

 

Miller looks small to me. Sorry, but that concerns me. I like his play on the field, but will he be swallowed up at the next level?

 

I'm starting to think that Green is the ultimate safe pick if he's there. We do have a bunch more picks to concentrate on the defense. The NFL is a passing league and we'd have one of the top receiving corps in the league if he's picked by the Bills.

 

It sounds like you have a case of the Maybin's. Not every rushing OLB has to be huge. Look at Clay Matthews. Listed at 6-3, 250. Von is at 6-3, 240. They have the same build and Matthews is definitely not getting swallowed up. And lets not forget that Maybin and Miller played completely different positions in college.

 

And, again no offense, but first off, there likely isn't "Suh talent" at all in this draft and if there is, it won't last until #3, it will be gone in the first two picks. Fairley's talent does not "dwarf" everyone elses. I honestly don't know where this comes from. Fairley exploded on to the scene this year. Yea, I agree, he's really good and I'd love to have him but lets settle down with the hyperbole. And I'm not sure about the other judgments either. Bowers "screams slacker". Based on what? The fact that he only finally put it together this past year? That is unfortunately how it goes with NFL prospects. Very few of them are consistent throughout college and by the time they put up big numbers they declare for the draft anyways (thus unless they have terrific freshman/sophomore years, they'll generally be coming to the NFL with only one strong college season under their belts). That's why its important to give guys like Von Miller a lot of consideration. Not only has he dominated, but he is the only guy other than AJ Green to have dominated consistently.

Edited January 31, 2011 by Union2008

[Ghost of Rob Johnson]

It sounds like you have a case of the Maybin's. Not every rushing OLB has to be huge. Look at Clay Matthews. Listen at 6-3, 250. Von is at 6-3, 240. They have the same build and Matthews is definitely not getting swallowed up. And lets not forget that Maybin and Miller played completely different positions in college.

I do agree with this, Matthews was only 240 lbs at the predraft combine in 2009.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clay_Matthews_III#Pre-draft_measureables