Kiper Re-Grades 2010 Draft

[Hapless Bills Fan]

But all that aside, our front office and many others (including the very talent shrewd Chargers) had CJ very high on their boards. If that is the case, you have to trust your evalutations and pick that player. In 2010 he didn't look like he deserved that grade (although I continue to ask who the Orakpo/Ngata is that did), but he still has a good career ahead of him if he puts it together.

 

Koufax, do you have a source for this? How do you know this?

[Bill from NYC]

I fully expect Spiller to be an impact player in the next two years.

 

What makes you say that?

[Kelly the Dog]

What makes you say that?

Same reason Chan Gailey and Ryan Fitzpatrick said it after the season. Because he has a ton of talent, speed you cannot teach, cutting ability, and special skills. He just needs to learn how to run in the NFL, and pick his battles (along with learning how to pass block so he can get on the field more on a team that needs its RBs to block well because its line can't). He showed flashes of it. He wasn't as good as he should have been, but he's a special player, IMO, and will be great as soon as he knows how to play. Some guys adapt faster than others. He's not the brightest bulb (but doesn't have to be).

[C.Biscuit97]

What makes you say that?

 

You're reaching here. Spiller was arguably the best offensive player in the draft. Now I know we have to hate everything the Bills do, but to suggest that Spiller doesn't have big time talent is flat out foolish.

[Orton's Arm]

I completely agree with everything you have said, and looking at the top 10 picks over the last 20 years, and seeing that the expectation of a RB is to be really special, I would much rather have a blue chip LB/LT/QB/DE/WR in general. So I think that making a top ten slot on your draft board as a RB takes a really high evaluation for all of your reasons and more. It is definitely possible that Spiller was ranked too high by our front office and by a bunch of teams that saw him in the top 10.

 

The problem I have is with those who think we should have passed on a top 10 ranked RB because of need/luxury/tickets/salary/defense/roster. There is one reason I pass on Spiller: if he isn't my top guy available at #9, or another player is ranked very similarly. Passing on him because you don't need him etc to take an inferior player is a bad move. Taking a LB, etc. you have rated almost as high sounds great to me because of the lack of precision. But not if it isn't close.

 

We may have messed up that evaluation and made a mistake by having CJ #9 or higher on our board. That evaluation involves a lot of different things about the player, and about how the draft works in general, and we might have been way off. But that is a player evaluation error. If he is a situational scat back as Kelly said, then he has no business being in your top 10.

 

I still think he will be an impact player for this team over his first five years, and not put in the reach category of Whitner or McKelvin or Lynch, and certainly not the bust category of Maybin and Mike Williams.

I think we're 90 - 100% of the way toward being on the same page.

 

I think that the lower-impact a position is, the more a team sets itself up for failure by drafting at that position. Let's say you draft an OG or safety or RB or even a kicker with a top-5 pick, thinking he'll have a Hall of Fame career. With positions like those, the player almost has to have a Hall of Fame career to justify where you picked him.

 

Let me put this in more concrete terms. Let's say that I'm a GM, and I've given Spiller a grade of 9 (out of 10), and some defensive lineman a grade of 7 out of 10. Which player do I take?

 

First, you have to realize that players like Jim Brown or Barry Sanders are very rare, and that the odds of any given RB becoming like that are very small. The odds of my evaluation having been overly optimistic are considerably larger. If I've evaluated Spiller at a 9, his actual performance will likely be somewhere in the 7 - 8 range if the pick is a non-bust.

 

As for the defensive lineman I graded at a 7--it's true that he's more likely to be a 6 than an 8. But there's still a decent chance of this player being an 8--a far greater chance, in fact, than Spiller has of being a 10. Odds are that this player will end up being about a 6.5 (assuming he's a non-bust) as opposed to a 7.5 for Spiller. That's still a difference in Spiller's favor, but the gap between the two players has narrowed. (Due to the fact it's almost impossible for Spiller to over-deliver on his expectations, and very likely to under-deliver on them. Even players who are 9s are very rare.)

 

Let's say for the sake of argument that Spiller turns into that 7.5, and the DL turns into a 6.5. A team like the Bills will typically give about 2/3 of its carries to its best available RB, and the rest to the backup RB. If a team like that already has a very capable RB on the roster (such as Fred Jackson) you're not necessarily gaining much by replacing him with Spiller. You could argue that there's a very big upgrade in the quality of your backup RB, unless of course your prior backup RB had been Marshawn Lynch. But the overall potential for upgrade here is fairly limited, unless of course the unlikely happens and Spiller goes on to have a Hall of Fame career.

 

Conversely, a defense never has enough talented defensive linemen. Bill Walsh once said that the key to winning football games is a good pass rush in the fourth quarter. Everyone remembers Joe Montana's heroic fourth quarter drive in the Super Bowl against the Bengals. But the only reason the 49ers got the ball back in the first place is because they had plenty of depth on their defensive line. Because of that depth, they were able to use their pass rush to force the Bengals to go three-and-out. (Had the Bengals offense gotten a couple first downs, they could have ended the game then and there.) Adding a good football player to your DL will result in an improvement in the starting quality and depth of your DL, even though adding a somewhat better player at RB will not necessarily result in a significant improvement at the RB position. Add in the fact that the passing game is four times as important as the running game, and the answer here is fairly clear. A team may well be better off taking a DL over a RB, even if the RB has a significantly higher grade.

[coldstorage5]

This is why we have missed the playoffs for 11 years,... we all know this and I hate to admit. I drank the spiller cool aid,... It was a luxury pick,... I still believe he wont be a ( maybin, Losman, Mccargo, williams,.. wow alot of busts) waste. He is a bright hardworking man, that will work hard to get better and contribute.

[Fan in Chicago]

You're reaching here. Spiller was arguably the best offensive player in the draft. Now I know we have to hate everything the Bills do, but to suggest that Spiller doesn't have big time talent is flat out foolish.

In a way, I am with Bill here. I have not seen his talent do anything special at the NFL level. Call me impatient, but for a team as much in need of immediate help, I would have expected our #9 pick to contribute in a meaningful way in his rookie season. As much as I would like to believe this 'wait for him to develop' attitude, can't we get an immediate contributor for a change ? And this is even assuming we should have drafted a RB in the first place...

[RuntheDamnBall]

As frustrated as I am with the Spiller pick, if Troup, Carrington and Moats turn out to be as good players are Wood and Levitre, I will mostly forgive Nix for being more right on average. Also, this coming year, we may see a similar pattern - the top pick going to a position of less critical need but #2 - #4 being devoted to our need areas. With 5 picks in the top four rounds (as of now), it will be great if atleast 3 are devoted to LB and OL. I have been reading in other threads about how 'happy' the coaches seem to be with Urbik, Wrotto, Pears etc. I simply shudder if we go into next season with that sentiment. If Nix and co are true to their word, they should draft more linemen in the early rounds despite the feelings about the existing right side O linemen.

I'm not worried if they're happy about those guys - I'm only worried if they suck, and if they don't stock up with more depth at those positions. Ideally, to me, they're happy with those guys AND they address RT and maybe LT or interior with another two picks.

 

Line play is where teamwork is really revealed. Talent is of course necessary, but more time together in a system is pretty valuable as well. There are good lines across the league with a few first day picks, rounded out by FAs and late-draft/UDFA pickups. I don't think that's a bad model to follow. What is reprehensible is to go into a situation as they did last year, which is to say completely lacking in depth at critical positions. Kirk Chambers and Jamon Meredith is a pretty dreadful backup plan.

[Fan in Chicago]

I'm not worried if they're happy about those guys - I'm only worried if they suck, and if they don't stock up with more depth at those positions. Ideally, to me, they're happy with those guys AND they address RT and maybe LT or interior with another two picks.

 

Line play is where teamwork is really revealed. Talent is of course necessary, but more time together in a system is pretty valuable as well. There are good lines across the league with a few first day picks, rounded out by FAs and late-draft/UDFA pickups. I don't think that's a bad model to follow. What is reprehensible is to go into a situation as they did last year, which is to say completely lacking in depth at critical positions. Kirk Chambers and Jamon Meredith is a pretty dreadful backup plan.

 

Agree with what you said. One qualifier, I think we suck not because we have consistently blown the #1 pick but also because we haven't done too well in the latter rounds as well. To state the obvious, a draft is more than one round. While a #1 needs to be a true impact player, drafting solidly in the latter rounds is critical as well. If we got more of the Kyle Williams and less of the Chris Ellis' of the world, we would have been in very good shape despite blowing the #1 picks.

[djrocks]

How the Hell does Kiper make a living with the crap he spews. He's still making excuses for his pet picks, (see Clausen) and is a master of the obvious. That aside it's too early to grade this draft. We'll know more next year. I expect big improvement from Troup, Carrington, Moats and some flash from Easley. I think we all expected more from Spiller and he has to step it up and learn the pro game running inside the tackles. All you can say is we'll see. For me, of all of the draft wonks....Kiper's the one I trust the least.

 

anyone who listens to keiper or puts any stock in anything he says i'm sorry but your lost.

 

the guy is a draftnic. he I'm sure has over the years gotten some connections with league UNDERLINGS.that being said if anyone thinks they give him any inside info your dreaming because they then would be jeopardizing their own careers,think about it.

 

however that being said to compare him to even the worst drafting teams in the league is a joke.

 

i dont care what the guy says or thinks and anyone who thinks he knows more than NFL personal depts just dont get it.

 

if he knew anything he would be working for an NFL team instead he gets a blog on espn and gets one gig a year on draft day as part of the "entertainment".

 

everyone is entitled to their opinions all he is telling you is his opinion and believe me he does not know more than the NFL personnel men and the scouts. the scouts throw him a bone now and then now he's the God of how to draft in the NFL,whatever.

[Gabe Northern]

He showed flashes of it.

 

Occasionally he'd explode through a hole for 15+ yards.

 

The rest of the year was watching a guy who seemed fundamentally confused why he couldn't bounce it to the outside for huge gains. I thought it was worst case scenario, really. People concerned about the pick weren't worried about his speed or cutting ability, but instead worried about whether his skills would translate to the NFL level.

 

anyone who listens to keiper or puts any stock in anything he says i'm sorry but your lost.

 

the guy is a draftnic. he I'm sure has over the years gotten some connections with league UNDERLINGS.that being said if anyone thinks they give him any inside info your dreaming because they then would be jeopardizing their own careers,think about it.

 

however that being said to compare him to even the worst drafting teams in the league is a joke.

 

i dont care what the guy says or thinks and anyone who thinks he knows more than NFL personal depts just dont get it.

 

if he knew anything he would be working for an NFL team instead he gets a blog on espn and gets one gig a year on draft day as part of the "entertainment".

 

everyone is entitled to their opinions all he is telling you is his opinion and believe me he does not know more than the NFL personnel men and the scouts. the scouts throw him a bone now and then now he's the God of how to draft in the NFL,whatever.

 

The funny thing is that (1) nearly all of this is true AND (2) the Bills would Still have a better roster today if they followed Mel's advice for the past ten years.

[Kelly the Dog]

Occasionally he'd explode through a hole for 15+ yards.

 

The rest of the year was watching a guy who seemed fundamentally confused why he couldn't bounce it to the outside for huge gains. I thought it was worst case scenario, really. People concerned about the pick weren't worried about his speed or cutting ability, but instead worried about whether his skills would translate to the NFL level.

 

Fred Jackson, who gets about as much out of every chance and hole and run he gets as anyone in the league it seems, averaged 4.2 yards per carry on this team. Spiller, in 74 carries averaged 3.8 and his longest carry in the entire year was 20 yards. If Spiller had one 40 yard run, which even his biggest detractors thought he would, he would have averaged more than Jackson. I realize you can't just do that but I think you can see my point.

 

Jackson always looked like he fell forward for an extra yard or pushed the pile or broke a tackle and got extra yards. Spiller always looked like he was dancing, running wide and out of bounds for losses, and yet averaged a little more than foot less per carry, with NO long runs at all. He never once had a big hole to run through and then look for daylight.

 

Spiller got open deep a few times and Fitz couldn't get him the ball. He made a spectacular catch on a deep ball in the last game. He averaged 14.6 yards a punt return which is fantasic, and 23 a KR which is very good, and he didn't even look like he was trying half the time.

 

He's going to be great, IMO.

[Ramius]

What makes you say that?

 

Gailey said that Spiller has talent, character, and work ethic, and that players with those 3 skills rarely fail at the NFL level. Spiller will get there. His coaches and teammates fully believe in him.

 

His only fault is that he's not there as fast as Bills fans wanted him to be there.

[Bill from NYC]

You're reaching here. Spiller was arguably the best offensive player in the draft. Now I know we have to hate everything the Bills do, but to suggest that Spiller doesn't have big time talent is flat out foolish.

 

JP Losman had big time talent. It takes more to excel at a professional level.

 

Gailey said that Spiller has talent, character, and work ethic, and that players with those 3 skills rarely fail at the NFL level. Spiller will get there. His coaches and teammates fully believe in him.

 

His only fault is that he's not there as fast as Bills fans wanted him to be there.

 

JP Losman had talent, character and work ethic and was a full time player.

[Ramius]

JP Losman had big time talent. It takes more to excel at a professional level.

 

 

 

JP Losman had talent, character and work ethic and was a full time player.

 

Loman's talent was nowhere near the talent level of Spiller. Losman was a boderline 1st-2nd round talent coming out. Spiller was universally rated top-10 talent coming out.

[eball]

When is Terry Pegula buying the Bills?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

The question is, when it is my turn to pick at #9 with the eight players off of the board (some of whom would have been in my top ten with Spiller), is he my top guy left? And if he is, do I pass on him for another player because I really need a NT/LB/LT? If he is my top guy left, I compare my ratings on him closely with the #2 guy on my list, as well as the best NT/LB/LT if further down the list, and I think long and hard at how much better I think he is than those guys. If it is very close and likely a toss up, I happily take someone else at another position, due to all the uncertainties and the inexact science of my ratings. If it is not close I take Spiller. (...)

Again, if there was a draft day Orakpo or Ngata to get mad about, I would be more frustrated with CJ's performance this year. But there isn't, and I'm still optimistic about him getting in the end zone, making plays, and helping us win games over the coming years. Putting him in your top 10 can definitely be questioned, but that generally isn't the grounds for questioning the pick. Passing on him once he is in your top ten because of need or position doesn't seem like a good decision to me, even though it hasn't worked out so far.

 

This is a well-argued, well researched post and I respect your view.

 

I guess for me the question is, why the Bills see so much gap between Spiller and the best OT or DL on the list

When a DT, 2 DE, and an OT were deemed worthy within 5 picks 1st round picks by other teams?

True, on many of these players, the jury is still out - injuries, rookie mistakes etc but they saw playing time and some looked very promising (I like what I've seen of Pierre-Paul)

 

I have no inside knowledge to back this up, I wonder though if the Bills were thinking they had more than they did "in the cupboard" or through FA (Stroud, Edwards, Davis, Green) and there WAS an element of "drafting for need" as in, underestimating some need?

 

I can't fault Nix and company for wanting to carefully evaluate what they have before mapping out a full plan

[Koufax]

+1

 

I find your ideas intriguing and wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

 

I don't think this will be looked at as a bad draft three or more seasons down the road, which is when you can realistically grade drafts. How great it is will be determined by what these players contribute over the next few years, and I see reason for optimism. Kiper graded the perceived value right after the draft based on his projections, and then amended it to the first year impact in this article. Both are fun, and the second is somewhat important, but what really matters is what these players contribute over a number of years.

 

2005: We didn't have a 1st, and we end up with Roscoe on our 2011 roster, and nothing much else useful in between. WEAK

2006: Whitner, Youboty, Kyle, Ellison. Obviously we would like Ngata, but four contributors, one of them a pro bowler is a pretty GOOD draft

2007: Lynch, Poz, and Trent. Trent fizzled after the concussion, but not a bust for a 3rd round QB, Lynch performed and gave us a 4th rounder, Poz is a contributor when healthy, but not the impact we hoped. OKAY draft.

2008: McKelvin, Ellis, Corner, Bell, Stevie. McKelvin wasn't worth #11, but definitely a GOOD draft, especially in the seventh round with starting LT and #1 receiver

2009: Too soon, but Maybin bust partially offset by Wood, Byrd, Levitre

2010: Too soon, but I like our chances as explained by Kelly below

 

How can they say the Bills didn't have a plan? The Bills said before the draft that they needed to add some playmakers, and they were changing to a 3-4 defense. With the first pick, they chose the biggest playmaker in the draft, and they explained the reasons why they needed it, which matched their earlier thinking.

 

Then in the second round they chose the best NT in the draft in their opinion, which is not only the most important position on a 3-4 team but the hardest to fill and the one thing we needed the most ( a run stuffing DT).

 

Then in the third round, they chose a prototype size and type 3-4 DE whose specialty was stopping the run first. Exactly what they needed and precisely the plan.

 

In the fourth round they chose a fast playmaking WR, a huge position of need going into the draft as well as following the plan.

 

In the fifth and sixth they chose two LBs who were known for rushing the passer in college, another part of the switch to 3-4 and the plan. 5 of the first 6 picks were positions of need directly according to their plan. The other, the #1 pick, was the BPA and the best playmaker in the draft they thought could help the run game, the pass game and the return game.

 

It was exactly the plan going into the draft, and a clear plan, on both O and D, regardless of whether you like the players they took or not. Saying it looks like the Bills didn't have a plan is just nonsense.

 

Time will tell whether this was a good draft of not. I fully expect Spiller to be an impact player in the next two years. I have no idea if Troup or Carrington will be good but they both showed flashes. Moats looks good. Easley and Battan never had a chance. Nelson was a steal. Jones and Roosevelt proved they at least probably belong in the league.

[Astrobot]

Great post, dog! It was fair. It was balanced. Most importantly, it matches my opinion!

[Orton's Arm]

+1

 

I find your ideas intriguing and wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

 

I don't think this will be looked at as a bad draft three or more seasons down the road, which is when you can realistically grade drafts. How great it is will be determined by what these players contribute over the next few years, and I see reason for optimism. Kiper graded the perceived value right after the draft based on his projections, and then amended it to the first year impact in this article. Both are fun, and the second is somewhat important, but what really matters is what these players contribute over a number of years.

 

2005: We didn't have a 1st, and we end up with Roscoe on our 2011 roster, and nothing much else useful in between. WEAK

2006: Whitner, Youboty, Kyle, Ellison. Obviously we would like Ngata, but four contributors, one of them a pro bowler is a pretty GOOD draft

2007: Lynch, Poz, and Trent. Trent fizzled after the concussion, but not a bust for a 3rd round QB, Lynch performed and gave us a 4th rounder, Poz is a contributor when healthy, but not the impact we hoped. OKAY draft.

2008: McKelvin, Ellis, Corner, Bell, Stevie. McKelvin wasn't worth #11, but definitely a GOOD draft, especially in the seventh round with starting LT and #1 receiver

2009: Too soon, but Maybin bust partially offset by Wood, Byrd, Levitre

2010: Too soon, but I like our chances as explained by Kelly below

My assessment of those drafts is less optimistic than yours.

 

2005: Nothing except Roscoe. (Which is pretty close to nothing at all.) Terrible.

2006: Of Whitner, Youboty, Kyle, and Ellison, I discount Youboty and Ellison completely. You can obtain players like that by signing bargain basement, third-rate free agents. Draft picks are supposed to be upgrades over players like that! Kyle Williams was obviously a great pick, and covers up a lot of other sins. But other than him (and Whitner, though to a much lesser extent) the Bills came away with nothing from that draft. Respectable.

2007: Any time you draft a RB 12th overall, and he gets traded away a few years later for a fourth rounder, that pick has to be considered a bust! The 12th overall pick is worth 1200 points; whereas the 10th pick in the fourth round is worth 82 points--less than 7% of the value of that first round pick! Likewise, the fact that Trent was released outright (as opposed to being traded away) suggests disappointing things about his perceived value among other GMs. The biggest success story of that draft was Poz. And that's bad, because like you said, Poz hasn't been the player for which we'd hoped. Very disappointing.

2008: Like you pointed out, Stevie Johnson and Bell were very good value picks in the seventh round! Corner is a good nickel back. McKelvin clearly has all the physical tools to be a great CB. Whether he has the brains is another question. If McKelvin and Bell improve in 2011, this will have been a good or very good draft. If they stay the same, it's still a solid draft.