Kiper Re-Grades 2010 Draft

[Gabe Northern]

The whole article is worth a read.

 

Although I actually do see Moats as more of a legit contributor, I can't really argue with the summary. The funniest thing about the defenders of Tom Modrak and the rest of the front office is that the year after the draft they say it's "too early to tell" whether the guys are any good or not. Then, after one or two more years when that line of argument doesn't work because its obvious to all that the players are not cutting it, they switch over to blaming those bad picks on whatever coach or front office guy departed.

 

Since its 2011, it's too early to tell if Spiller, Troup, and Carrington are going to work out. In 2013, those lousy picks will be blamed on Tom Modrak, Buddy Nix, or Chan Gailey, depending on which of them has been sent packing and made the scapegoat for this.

 

Buffalo Bills

Summary:

Considering the holes on the roster, Buffalo had to get players that could step in immediately and help. I like C.J. Spiller, but emphasized that I considered him a bit of a luxury pick, considering there are other options in that backfield. His season can only be considered a disappointment. Torell Troup and Arthur Moats saw some time, but is there one guy from this class who looks like an anchor? I questioned Buffalo's plan, and I'm not sure this draft shows it really had one. If it did, that plan went off course early.

 

Draft grade: C-plus | Current Grade: D-plus

[BobChalmers]

The whole article is worth a read.

 

Although I actually do see Moats as more of a legit contributor, I can't really argue with the summary. The funniest thing about the defenders of Tom Modrak and the rest of the front office is that the year after the draft they say it's "too early to tell" whether the guys are any good or not. Then, after one or two more years when that line of argument doesn't work because its obvious to all that the players are not cutting it, they switch over to blaming those bad picks on whatever coach or front office guy departed.

 

Since its 2011, it's too early to tell if Spiller, Troup, and Carrington are going to work out. In 2013, those lousy picks will be blamed on Tom Modrak, Buddy Nix, or Chan Gailey, depending on which of them has been sent packing and made the scapegoat for this.

 

 

Yeah, except we don't know if it was Modrak or Jauron previously - we were told Maybin was Jauron's call, for example - and for the new team, it really is too early to tell, so what's the point?

Edited January 30, 2011 by BobChalmers

[Green Lightning]

How the Hell does Kiper make a living with the crap he spews. He's still making excuses for his pet picks, (see Clausen) and is a master of the obvious. That aside it's too early to grade this draft. We'll know more next year. I expect big improvement from Troup, Carrington, Moats and some flash from Easley. I think we all expected more from Spiller and he has to step it up and learn the pro game running inside the tackles. All you can say is we'll see. For me, of all of the draft wonks....Kiper's the one I trust the least.

[Tortured Soul]

For some teams, particularly Tampa Bay, he takes into account waiver-wire and UDFA contributions, but he doesn't for others. I think that would help the Bills' cause considerably.

[ax4782]

No, I think most people will blame the front office in three years if the team hasn't gotten any better. Spiller had limited playing time, and coaches said he was having trouble adjusting to some differences in the game's speed. Troup was behind our only pro bowl player, but did well when filling in. Carrington didn't play until Edwards got hurt near the end of the season and was respectable. People here need to stop thinking that one draft in a new regime tells you anything in one year. Does Shanahan suck the after the year he and his draft class had? Let's give this FO a chance to actually rebuild this team before we close down the project.

[drewfla]

D plus is pretty generous after one year. I understand it is too early to tell but if you were going to re-grade right now I can't see how it isn't a solid F.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

How the Hell does Kiper make a living with the crap he spews. He's still making excuses for his pet picks, (see Clausen) and is a master of the obvious. That aside it's too early to grade this draft. We'll know more next year. I expect big improvement from Troup, Carrington, Moats and some flash from Easley. I think we all expected more from Spiller and he has to step it up and learn the pro game running inside the tackles. All you can say is we'll see. For me, of all of the draft wonks....Kiper's the one I trust the least.

 

Not defending Kiper, Green L. He laid an egg on Clausen (better QB than Bradford my Aunt Frannie).

Also agree it's too early to tell which of this year's draft class are "long term starters".

 

That said.....it is my impression that many 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round players drafted later than ours are making very solid contributions to better teams at positions of need for B'lo

Pierre-paul, Graham, and Alualu DL in 1st; Bulaga, Pouncey, and Davis OL in 1st. Not that these players are perfect or haven't had some struggles, normal to rookies, but they've made more contributions than Spiller has at positions of higher need, and some on better teams. Gronkowski and Houston in the 2nd. Mitchell and Peters in the 3rd.

 

I think that when a rookie starts or gets on the field and plays unevenly or makes mistakes it's only to be expected and shouldn't be gloom and doom.

When a rookie can't crack the starting lineup or struggles to see the field on a bad team decimated by injuries, it's not a good sign.

Something is missing - player development? coaching? or player evaluation in the draft?

 

I don't buy the KoolAid that Modrak and his scouts are just "victims of circumstance".

[BobChalmers]

That said.....it is my impression that many 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round players drafted later than ours are making very solid contributions to better teams at positions of need for B'loPierre-paul, Graham, and Alualu DL in 1st; Bulaga, Pouncey, and Davis OL in 1st. Not that these players are perfect or haven't had some struggles, normal to rookies, but they've made more contributions than Spiller has at positions of higher need, and some on better teams. Gronkowski and Houston in the 2nd. Mitchell and Peters in the 3rd.

 

I think that when a rookie starts or gets on the field and plays unevenly or makes mistakes it's only to be expected and shouldn't be gloom and doom.

When a rookie can't crack the starting lineup or struggles to see the field on a bad team decimated by injuries, it's not a good sign.

Something is missing - player development? coaching? or player evaluation in the draft?

 

Right - so out of 32 players per round - you're finding 6 in the first round (how many in the later rounds?) - that played in positions the Bills didn't draft.

 

The Bills took two DL's in rounds 2 and 3. DL, as it turns out, was not as much the area of need as LB, where they drafted noone (healthy) ahead of Moats. (Don't forget Batten).

 

The LB's are the clear weak-point of the team and Moats did eventually start, after the new regime did the wise thing and take one more crack at making use of the previous major bust - Maybin.

 

After seeing Williams play this year - are we surprised that Troup couldn't start over him as a rookie? If Troup and Carrington still aren't starting next year, then we can be disappointed, but it's not that normal for the vast majority of rookie DL's to be ready their first year. Heck - remember Mario Williams? Eventually it became clear he was a better pick than Reggie Bush - I called that one right at the time - but all the geniuses were screaming about how dumb the Texans were.

[Bill from NYC]

For some teams, particularly Tampa Bay, he takes into account waiver-wire and UDFA contributions, but he doesn't for others. I think that would help the Bills' cause considerably.

 

It would, but Spiller was such a stupid pick that it would be very hard to raise the grade of that draft. To his credit, Kiper called Spiller a luxury pick and he was spot on.

The fact that he was a dumb selection was obvious then and is even more obvious now. I can't argue with the man. That said, production from Troup and Carrington could save this draft to some degree.

Let's hope.

Edited January 30, 2011 by Bill from NYC

[jahnyc]

Can't argue with Kiper on the re-grade of Buffalo's draft. As others have noted, other teams received strong contributions from their rookie classes (including New England). We did not, and we are lacking overall talent.

 

Unless Spiller becomes an every down back and a pro bowl caliber player, this draft will never make sense to me. I thought Troup and Carrington were disappointing, but I understand it is premature to make any judgments about their long term prospects.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Right - so out of 32 players per round - you're finding 6 in the first round (how many in the later rounds?) - that played in positions the Bills didn't draft.

 

Ah, no. I'm giving 6 limited counter-examples to the argument that we should draft "BPA" because it "lowers the risk" of drafting someone who can't cut it in the NFL.

One counter-example of someone drafted later, who contributes strongly, should suffice to make the point that the talent at positions of need is apparently there when we draft, we're just not finding it.

 

There were 7 DL, 4 OL, and a TE drafted >#9 in the 1st round

Some of them are contributing to quality teams (Giants) or playoff teams (Iggles, Steelers, GB) but none of them are good enough to contribute to Bills more than Spiller?

Huh.

[Billshank Redemption]

yea i gotta be honest i am very critical of kiper and all of the draft analysts for that matter but kiper does know what hes talking about. He cant be right on every pick I think he does a pretty damn good job. on the other hand, mcshay is a moron who doesnt know anything. Do i think spiller wasa luxury pick, absolutely but I also still think he will be a stud. Besides not taking a LB early i have no beef with this draft. The year before, now thats a whole other story

[Thoner7]

Right - so out of 32 players per round - you're finding 6 in the first round (how many in the later rounds?) - that played in positions the Bills didn't draft.

 

The Bills took two DL's in rounds 2 and 3. DL, as it turns out, was not as much the area of need as LB, where they drafted noone (healthy) ahead of Moats. (Don't forget Batten).

 

The LB's are the clear weak-point of the team and Moats did eventually start, after the new regime did the wise thing and take one more crack at making use of the previous major bust - Maybin.

 

After seeing Williams play this year - are we surprised that Troup couldn't start over him as a rookie? If Troup and Carrington still aren't starting next year, then we can be disappointed, but it's not that normal for the vast majority of rookie DL's to be ready their first year. Heck - remember Mario Williams? Eventually it became clear he was a better pick than Reggie Bush - I called that one right at the time - but all the geniuses were screaming about how dumb the Texans were.

 

They also passed on Spikes who went on to start for NE.

[billnutinphoenix]

For some teams, particularly Tampa Bay, he takes into account waiver-wire and UDFA contributions, but he doesn't for others. I think that would help the Bills' cause considerably.

 

 

Very true...what about David Nelson....

[thewildrabbit]

Yeah, except we don't know if it was Modrak or Jauron previously - we were told Maybin was Jauron's call, for example - and for the new team, it really is too early to tell, so what's the point?

Yea well, from everything I've read over the years I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to find out that the owner is making these retarded early picks over the last 8 years. The team has utterly failed to find decent O linemen the last 8 years unless they draft guards in the first 2 picks (Wood-Levitre), which is usually reserved for tackles. Guards can be found in later rounds unless they are certifiable all pros. This franchise has made so many bad choices over the last 10 years of drafting and yet they keep the same people in power making these poor decisions.

 

Buddy Nix went into last years draft with stating that the O line was a priority, the Bills came away with a 5th & 7th, not my idea of priority. The 7th was cut in preseason and the 5th never saw a starting role, which is odd considering how many changes were made at RT. Nix came outta that draft stating that things didn't unfold in a way to allow them to take an O linemen early. Spiller was clearly a luxury pick as the Bills already had a brilliant 3rd down back in Fred Jackson and a ":water-bug" type receiver in Roscoe Parrish. Now think about how well that O line would have been this season if the Bills had traded back and taken RT Brian Bulaga or C Maurkice Pouncey.

 

Now Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey are stating that the O line is fine and that the Bills need to address the ILB-OLB position, that isn't what I see when the Bills play a top team. Fitz will still be running for his life and hurrying throws against teams like the Jets-Cowboys-NY Giants-Chargers-Chiefs. That is "IF" Fitz can stay healthy the entire year. Should Fitz go down at any point, then look and see at exactly how flawed that O line really is. The team still fails badly at run blocking, if not for Fred Jackson making yards on his own the Bills running game would be non existent. Now that the Bills traded away the bruising freight train in ML, they have a kid who can't block, and an older RB in Jackson who would be best featured as the 3rd down or pass receiving back, and not the primary back who takes all the punishment of the lead RB. So guess what? The Bills now need another RB to replace ML as the featured power RB.

 

Look for this team to make a reach at 3 like OLB Von Miller from Texas A&M, the smart move would be to take a DE/DT with that #3 overall. Don't look for this franchise to make any smart moves with a 92 year old president / owner who is still calling the shots over the team. Another move that wouldn't surprise me is Cam Newton with that #3 pick. Wilson needs to sell tickets and that kid would certainly get that job done.

Edited January 30, 2011 by Harvey lives

[Direhard Fan]

If you can't stop the run, the offense isn't on the field anyway so lets get serious and go "D" our 1st three picks. We went thru 10 linebackers LY and that hurts alot. Stop the run and we will look alot better on offense.

[BuffaloBillsMagic1]

How the Hell does Kiper make a living with the crap he spews. He's still making excuses for his pet picks, (see Clausen) and is a master of the obvious. That aside it's too early to grade this draft. We'll know more next year. I expect big improvement from Troup, Carrington, Moats and some flash from Easley. I think we all expected more from Spiller and he has to step it up and learn the pro game running inside the tackles. All you can say is we'll see. For me, of all of the draft wonks....Kiper's the one I trust the least.

You do relaize we would be ten times better as a team if we chose his picks the last 10 years don't you. I trust him more than our braintrust, that's for sure. How sad is this?

[BillsVet]

Yea well, from everything I've read over the years I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to find out that the owner is making these retarded early picks over the last 8 years. This franchise has made so many bad choices over the last 10 years of drafting and yet they keep the same people in power making these poor decisions.

 

Don't look for this franchise to make any smart moves with a 92 year old president / owner who is still calling the shots over the team. Another move that wouldn't surprise me is Cam Newton with that #3 pick. Wilson needs to sell tickets and that kid would certainly get that job done.

 

Spot-on. Whether RW realizes it or not, 11 years of losing has ensured a general distrust of both he and his franchise.

 

His friend Buddy Nix hasn't committed to anything like a plan for the future nor made moves anyone can point to and say were solid. They made the choice to go with the 3-4, used a lot of picks and free agent dollars on players for that scheme, and found themselves going 4-3 a lot by season's end. On draft day, the took a RB 9th overall in an era when teams are starting and getting production out of late round picks and UDFA's. The RB ended up with fewer than 100 touches from the LOS. The named Trent the starting QB in camp and after 2 starts and 3 weeks he was cut. After the season, in an attempt to give credibility to their poor defense, they announce they're sticking with the 3-4 and then hire Dave Wannstedt who's always been a 4-3 guy. And now, the owner and GM are pulling out all the stops to defend their College Scouting Director who has worked for 4 different GM's and is supposedly not responsible for the draft record since starting in 2002.

 

When you describe the issues, as Harvey as done, it's pretty clear they have no identity or plan. The owner is either meddling deeply or he's simply hiring people unqualified and inept at building a football team. So whether is Tom Donahoe, Marv/DIck, Mr. Smithers/Dick, or ole Buddy, he isn't getting enough big decisions right. And people around the NFL know it and thus will not work for him.

[jumbalaya]

For some teams, particularly Tampa Bay, he takes into account waiver-wire and UDFA contributions, but he doesn't for others. I think that would help the Bills' cause considerably.

Really? What did we pick up that makes the roster on a top ten team? It is one thing to get players that can start on this sorry team but to get quality starters and depth is another thing.

[sllib olaffub]

It's hard to be objective about my team. There are times when I think with the right decisions and some luck we could have a playoff/wildcard caliber team in 2011; but, we'd probably need to add 6 starters between F.A. and the draft.

And then there are times when I feel like our team is running on a treadmill, and we're never getting closer to the good teams. Is our O-line a good RT away from being good, or is still a second rate group? Are our RB's posed to make a real impact this coming season, or are they limited? Harvey Lives made some comments that really sink my spirits with this team, not because I don't think they can be good - as I said, with the right moves I think they can - but, because I don't have faith in them yet to believe they'll make the sensible moves. I guess we'll have to trust (we've got no option there)that Nix finally is a guy who has a real master plan and has the authority to make the calls.

 

As for last year's draft, I think they picked Spiller with the intention of his impact being felt in the years to come - maybe 2 or 3 years after the draft. Some might say, They needed to pick an immediate impact player. Well, they admitted that the rebuild wasn't going to happen immediately, that they would do it over a period of seasons, adding through the draft mostly. So, they weren't fooling themselves about the team last year. They knew they weren't going to be contenders until they assembled the right pieces. And, in that light, Troupe and Carrington look like they, too, will really come on in the next few years. Not to mention Moats looked good, Easley was getting rave reviews, and Batten might still be as good as Moats - which would be great. Adding the URFA's, and our 2010 draft was, perhaps, pretty good.

 

Still, I think this year's draft and F.A. will say a lot about how our F.O. makes decisions, about what kind of a team they want to build, and, ultimately, what their Philosophy, or Identity is to be. No excuses - if we don't see a progression from 4-12, to, say, 7-9/8-8, and on to 10-6 or 11-5 in year 3, then they are no better than any of the rest of the coaches we've seen in the last 15 years.

 

As it stands right now, I can see the potential of this team, it's youth, the way they played hard last year and almost beat some very good teams. If Nix continues to add talent and depth, then I think we should disregard what the talking heads say and Billieve, so to speak. I mean, look at what we heard coming out of the Senior Bowl practices about Gailey - and then they go on and whoop the other team. Who cares what the "experts" say, as long as the Bills just show improvement over the next few years and regain the respect of the rest of the league. Teams like San Diego and New England are good examples - and even Seattle and New Orleans, that you don't need the absolute best group of athletes to win in the NFL. You need the best team, the best systems, the right plans and some luck.