2003Contenders Posted January 28, 2011 Posted January 28, 2011 Folks, this is all a balancing act with many parts at play: 1. Who is the best football player available? 2. What are the team's most pressing needs? 3. What is the variation between the level of the player that the Bills seek to draft at a given position versus the existing starting player at that position? 4. Money. 5. How QUICKLY do you expect the drafted player to contribute? Everyone always talks about 1, 2 and 4 (and to a lesser extent 5) above -- but I think too often that 3 gets overlooked. The Bills were a 4-12 football team. They have MANY needs, and practically every position (besides RB and possibly OG) could stand an upgrade. The question is: how much of an upgrade can they hope to find in the draft? I would argue that LB (both inside and outside), DL (both DT and DE depending on the scheme), OT, and TE are all positions that COULD immediately be upgraded if the right player is drafted. However, the team could certainly stand an upgrade at QB, WR and DB -- although IMHO none of these needs are as dire. Specifically, in regards to the QB position, I think a fair assessment of Fitzpatrick after the 2010 season is that he is an adequate starter -- but not an elite one. It makes no sense to invest a high (and by high, I mean first 2-3 rounds) draft pick on a young QB that projects to be no better than a "solid NFL starter", given that it is unlikely that the player will ever be a real improvement over Fitzpatrick. However, if the team sees a youngster that they believe has the potential to be a franchise QB -- even if they believe it will take a couple of years for that player to get on the field -- then they should by all means strongly consider drafting such a rare commodity. Given that Fitz is a serviceable starter, the Bills certainly have the luxury of allowing a youngster to sit for a couple of years. The prior regime's philosophy was to shy away from that mind-set, fearing that drafting a young QB with such a high pick would place too much pressure on the team to rush the kid out there. (That is the reason Marv passed on Cutler back in 2006.) The current Nix/Gaily regime strikes me as a patient crew -- willing to allow the hypothetical rookie QB to sit until he is ready (even if Fitz struggles). I am by no means a scout and many of you on here are much more in tune to the college game than I am. From my untrained perception, I do NOT see any QB in the this class that I would label a can't-miss-prospect. Certainly not one that I would bank on becoming elite. Newton has the most upside -- but plenty of risk. The presence of Fitz helps mitigate that risk -- but it also diminishes the reward, given the odds that Newton will develop into a QB that is truly elite and THAT much better than Fitz. The money piece of the equation (given the bust factor) also plays a pivotal role here. Had Luck come out, the risk certainly would have been worth it. As it stands today, I just do not see a QB in this draft with that kind of ceiling and at the same time with so little risk. Quite simply, the Buffalo Bills are not going to draft a QB with the #3 overall pick, knowing that they will have to pay him a ridiculous amount of money -- just to watch him ride the pine for a year or more, wondering the whole time if he will ever be better than what they already have. I could, however, see them drafting a Jake Locker late in the 1st/early in the 2nd where the risk is not nearly as high and there exists a capacity to let the young man sit and learn. While it is bad news that the Bills have so many needs, it is also good news that they will have plenty of quality players to choose from WITHOUT having to "reach" based on need.
jumbalaya Posted January 28, 2011 Posted January 28, 2011 I want DL at #3. But if it comes down to Green, Peterson, or Gabbert, I'm warming up to the idea of taking the QB. If your gonna go down, may as well go down in a ball of flames. What does Gabbert get you int he first round that Kaepernick doesn't give you in the third or fourth?
It's in My Blood Posted January 28, 2011 Posted January 28, 2011 Specifically, in regards to the QB position, I think a fair assessment of Fitzpatrick after the 2010 season is that he is an adequate starter -- but not an elite one. I don't understand how anyone can make a "fair assessment" of Fitzpatrick after ONE season under a new regime and system. That said , I wouldn't be shocked or pissed off if we took Locker with our 2nd rounder.
billsfan89 Posted January 28, 2011 Posted January 28, 2011 This is just sloppy reporting Fitz is our QB for next season. We will take Dareus if we take a QB it might be in round 2 but even then I hope we don't take a QB. I hope we let Brohm go and pick up a vet backup QB as I think that Brohm just isn't an NFL QB and we need to have a solid guy in case Fitz gets hurt.
SoulMan Posted January 29, 2011 Posted January 29, 2011 Trade down and grab Castonzo, pick up an LB with the extra 4th.
billsintaiwan Posted January 29, 2011 Posted January 29, 2011 I like how Gabbert is in the spread, never under center and just about never handed the ball off and now he is a better prospect than Tebow was. he has a plus release. tebow can't throw a football.
The Buffalo Irishman Posted January 29, 2011 Posted January 29, 2011 More nonsense. A lot of these mocks demonstrate the national media isn't paying any attention to Buffalo. Otherwise, they'd realize: - Chan loves Fitz - they have a bias to taking "best player available" So if they don't have an overt agenda to replace Fitz and Gabbert is no where near the best player @ #3, how in the world can you make this projection? on the money
BADOLBILZ Posted January 29, 2011 Posted January 29, 2011 More nonsense. A lot of these mocks demonstrate the national media isn't paying any attention to Buffalo. Otherwise, they'd realize: - Chan loves Fitz - they have a bias to taking "best player available" So if they don't have an overt agenda to replace Fitz and Gabbert is no where near the best player @ #3, how in the world can you make this projection? I don't see anything that leads me to believe the Bills are ready to build around Fitzpatrick. Chan likes him, but when he says things like "I've made it to the playoffs with worse"......it's a stretch to think what he really means is "franchise quarterback".
flomoe Posted January 29, 2011 Posted January 29, 2011 Ryan Mallett is the Bills pick - Buddy's already running to the podium... I wouldn't mind this if they were picking around 7-9 with a second 2nd round pick and another 1st round pick next year. Otherwise, at 3, I really see them doing D all the way. They might reach a little for someone like Quinn but I think Dareus would be the smart choice. That being said, it won't be Dareus and most likely Quinn or even Miller. A trade down would be the best cast scenario this year but I really don't see that happening. Safest pick would be Peterson or the other corner from Nebraska that I can't think of his name off hand. Our corners aren't bad but it never hurts to have one that you don't need to help (see Revis). Defense has to be that pick no matter what. Unless Green can do something to stop the other teams from moving up and down the field on us, he is not the pick regardless of talent.
Nostradamus Posted January 29, 2011 Posted January 29, 2011 What does Gabbert get you int he first round that Kaepernick doesn't give you in the third or fourth? I like Kaepernick. He is extremely athletic and has a great arm. He certainly needs to bulk up and work on his throwing motion, but he would be an excellent developmental project. His stock seems to be rising, and if the Bills really like him, they may have to grab him in the 2nd. He may not be there in the 3rd.
The Buffalo Irishman Posted January 29, 2011 Posted January 29, 2011 I don't see anything that leads me to believe the Bills are ready to build around Fitzpatrick. Chan likes him, but when he says things like "I've made it to the playoffs with worse"......it's a stretch to think what he really means is "franchise quarterback". Fitzy was solid this year. Build off of that for the time being. Select D in the 1st. QB in the in the 2nd or 3rd. The problem is on Defense. Period. Other than a few blowouts (Packers, Vikings, Patriots, and BOTH Jets games), we were in the rest of those games. It was the D that was the weak link. When teams are averaging 163 or 167 (whatever the stat is) rushing yards per game, THERE IS A PROBLEM!!!! We need D..... Oh yeah... Whitnerless, GET OFF MY TEAM!!!!!
1B4IDie Posted January 29, 2011 Posted January 29, 2011 I disagree. Mallet is certainly not a 1st round lock - I will be extremely suprised if he is drafted in the 1st. Newton prob will because of "potential" and gabbert may too. This year is a very weak class, maybe the weakest in 10 years. Much weaker at this point than the Russell/Quinn debacle. Honestly, I think Newton may be the only QB that would go before Clausen f this class were sandwiched with last years class. You're welcome to your incorrect opinion. Mallet and Newton would have both went before Tebow and maybe Gabbert too. Last year's QB was the weakest class in years and next year outside of Luck will be even weaker. I honestly don't understand how you can possibly say 2011 QB class is weaker than the 2010 with 1.5 QBs in the whole draft.
DanInSouthBuffalo Posted January 29, 2011 Posted January 29, 2011 I wish Gabbert was a senior then we could see him in this weeks setting in Mobile. That Kapernick kid could end up high in the 1st if you believe some. Of course they said that about Tebow too.
sllib olaffub Posted January 29, 2011 Posted January 29, 2011 I think there are a few QB's they'd like after round 1. I even am beginning to think they might go for Kaepernick in the 2nd and be glad for it. He seems like the kind of QB Chan could have success with. Or Locker. Or a few others that have multi talents. It seems to me that there are more QB's coming out these days that have the skill set that five years ago only a very rare athlete had at the QB position. So, maybe they can get someone good in a later round. I can only trust they know what they're doing - and, I hope they are throwing off smoke right now, and not really planning on being so transparent. Some part of me thinks that the guy they're looking at is someone they aren't openly being tied to - at least, someone they aren't mentioning. But again, you never know with these guys - last year they played it pretty straight.
Phlegm Alley Posted January 29, 2011 Posted January 29, 2011 More nonsense. A lot of these mocks demonstrate the national media isn't paying any attention to Buffalo. Otherwise, they'd realize: - Chan loves Fitz - they have a bias to taking "best player available" So if they don't have an overt agenda to replace Fitz and Gabbert is no where near the best player @ #3, how in the world can you make this projection? I haven't heard Ralph come out and publicly recant his statement earlier in the season when he said that the Bills' #1 priority in the offseason was to address the QB position. It was a Wawrow article. Because of this, I think the Bills will attempt to draft their QB of the future at #3, because unlike last year, when the top 3 LOT's were drafted before we picked at #9, we took the BPA. With us being at #3, we will get the #1 player at his position, weather it be QB, CB, WR.
John from Riverside Posted January 29, 2011 Posted January 29, 2011 - Ralph "We are not going to reach for a QB" - Maylock is saying every one of these QB's has holes in their games even though they have 1st round talent - Our defense is putrid I truly believe the bills want to trade down while still selecting a good defensive player.....and that a guy like Dalton later with his accuracy and mobility that could sit behind Fitz (who Chan loves) is a more ideal situation. 1st - Darious or Quinn in a trade down 2nd - Andy Dalton 2nd - Marcus Cannon OT or LB 3rd - OT or LB 4th - defense 4th - defense best player available best player available Get a decent Tight end in free agency
mary owen Posted January 29, 2011 Posted January 29, 2011 http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/don_banks/01/27/2011-nfl-mock-draft/index.html I don't want a developmental QB @ #3. i don't like his name
truth on hold Posted January 29, 2011 Posted January 29, 2011 I haven't heard Ralph come out and publicly recant his statement earlier in the season when he said that the Bills' #1 priority in the offseason was to address the QB position. It was a Wawrow article. Because of this, I think the Bills will attempt to draft their QB of the future at #3, because unlike last year, when the top 3 LOT's were drafted before we picked at #9, we took the BPA. With us being at #3, we will get the #1 player at his position, weather it be QB, CB, WR. RW's comment came out before Fitz was deemed to come into his own and Gailey showered him with praise and gave him solid status as starter. That Ralph hasnt challenged Chan's statements shows his support.
8-8 Forever? Posted January 29, 2011 Posted January 29, 2011 No to Yo Gaba Gabbert! The media really spends no time thinking about the Bills. The Bills haven't been part of the NFL conversation for so long, it's just easy to say "yeah, they suck, Fitz looks like a college town waiter, give 'em a QB, that makes sense". That's about all the analysis you get. Then they move on to the interesting teams, teams with controversy, issues. you know, stuff to write about. Buffalo is a ghost town from a journalistic standpoint. Nobody home. Chan Gailey? Boring, retread, no story there. Ralph Wilson? cold and old, no story there. Buddy Nix? Dry as sandpaper, no story there. The Bills are boring. I've been rooting for 40 years, and even I think the Bills are boring. on the money yep, the media couldn't care less who the Bills pick. take that to the bank. What does Gabbert get you int he first round that Kaepernick doesn't give you in the third or fourth? Exactly, just trade down from no 3 , get more picks and just draft best player available. the Bills need more talented young bodies, as many as they can get. problem; we may not know if we have a rookie cap by the time the draft happens
Recommended Posts