Orton's Arm Posted January 20, 2011 Posted January 20, 2011 A good article from Walter Football about this. There have been eight safeties taken in the top-15 since 1991. The author looks at how those safeties did, and draws a conclusion about whether it's worthwhile to use an early pick on a safety.
beast34 Posted January 20, 2011 Posted January 20, 2011 Never!!! Top 5 picks should be at a franchise position either LT,QB, or RDE. Drafting in the top 5 and not taking one of those 3 positions mean's you should be trading down. I would never take a SS in the top 10 for that matter.
Tortured Soul Posted January 20, 2011 Posted January 20, 2011 Of course a safety is worth a top-5 pick, if it's the right safety.
1B4IDie Posted January 20, 2011 Posted January 20, 2011 (edited) You can expand that to all DBs A relevant opine I posted on a different site concerning Patrick Peterson: Taking a CB in the Top 5 is a risky proposition I doubt that a new Front Office in Denver makes their first draft pick a CB. You build through the Trenches then build out to CB and WRs. The other way around is a Mat Millenesque. Since 2001: Sean Taylor at #5 in 2004, Pacman Jones #6, Antrel Rolle #8, Carlos Rodgers #9 in 2005, Michael Huff #7, Donte Whitner #8 in 2006, LaRon Laundry #6 2007, Eric Berry #5 Joe Hadden #7 in 2010. The Redskins drafted 3 DBs in the Top 10 since 2001. Buffalo and Oakland all make the "Take a DB in the Top10" list; Not really the model a new organizational leader wants to follow. There hasn't been a DB taken #2 overall since 1991 Eric Turner, then Bruce Pickens #3 IMO Patrick Peterson is way over rated he looks more like a Safety then a CB. I highly doubt he goes #2 overall. I actually Think Prince will be the first DB off the board. Edited January 20, 2011 by Why So Serious?
dayman Posted January 20, 2011 Posted January 20, 2011 (edited) Of course a safety is worth a top-5 pick, if it's the right safety. Pretty much anything is worth it there if it's a really really good player. Obviously things like Kickers won't be...interior OL probably not either...but anything else yes. Personally if my team is so bad to pick top 5 I want to take something that has an easy transition...something that's more physical. QBs/Safeties are risky b/c you have a hard time figuring out how they will pick up on the NFL passing schemes...but there are risks w/ every position and player taken. So basically...I agree w/ this if it's the right safety but all in all I would try my best to take a DL or OT or something like that...given that if I'm drafting that high I could probably use one of those pretty bad and it would be easier to assess the transition (easIER not easy). Edited January 20, 2011 by dayman
1B4IDie Posted January 20, 2011 Posted January 20, 2011 Of course a safety is worth a top-5 pick, if it's the right safety. It has to be the right team and the right safety, most likely a team drafting Top5 isn't built in the trenches enough to draft a player outside the Front7, O-Line, or QB. So the answer is almost never.
silvermike Posted January 20, 2011 Posted January 20, 2011 Troy Polamalu would have been worth a top-5 pick. He's the extremely rare safety who disrupts an offense as much as a bigtime passrusher. But I think identifying a player of that caliber is so rare, as a practical matter, drafting safeties that high is not a good idea. Several other positions fall into this category - RBs aren't worth top picks usually, but of course Barry Sanders should have gone #1 overall, etc. ANd of course, it depends who you have already, and who else is on the board. This year is a pretty dry draft for OTs and QBs. That opens up options at WR or CB that aren't normally there.
dayman Posted January 20, 2011 Posted January 20, 2011 RBs aren't worth top picks usually, but of course Barry Sanders should have gone #1 overall, etc. Aikmen and Deion went that year...and of course the great Don Beebe...haha...just saying...
San-O Posted January 20, 2011 Posted January 20, 2011 A good article from Walter Football about this. There have been eight safeties taken in the top-15 since 1991. The author looks at how those safeties did, and draws a conclusion about whether it's worthwhile to use an early pick on a safety. Further evidence the Bills, Levy and Jauron had/have no idea what to do re: building or rebuilding a team. This team has been in perpetual "rebuild" mode for 10- 11 years, and the owner came out recently and just said another 3 years. Thanks Ralph. If the Bills had a clue, it would have happened by now. Sell the team already, instead of just selling games to Toronto.
purple haze Posted January 20, 2011 Posted January 20, 2011 Never!!! Top 5 picks should be at a franchise position either LT,QB, or RDE. Drafting in the top 5 and not taking one of those 3 positions mean's you should be trading down. I would never take a SS in the top 10 for that matter. Never? What if there are no LT, QB or RDE who are impact players and worthy of a top 5 pick. Just because those are the premier positions doesn't mean premier talent will always be available at those positions. Who is picked should depend on potential impact. If that's a safety so be it. Eric Berry did very well this past season.
silvermike Posted January 20, 2011 Posted January 20, 2011 Aikmen and Deion went that year...and of course the great Don Beebe...haha...just saying... Ha - I didn't actually look up his draft class. But in general, I think Barry would be worth the #1 pick most years - there are, at least, RBs who would have been worth a lofty draft position. OJ, say, was well worth the #1pick even if there were very good linemen out there (Mean Joe Greene, say.)
Thoner7 Posted January 20, 2011 Posted January 20, 2011 In general any DB picked in the top 5 is a bad pick. Obviously there are exceptions to every rule. The DB positions simply cannot affect the game like they used to because of the rule changes, and are thus less important to a team. If the guy looks like Ed Reed or Palumalo then sure he is worth it. If the CB is Neon Deon or Asumagha then sure. Eric Berry was taken at 5 this year and was prob worth the selection considering KC had built both their lines and is looking like a great player. That said, I think there are 6 DBs in the NFL who with their play would have lived up to the expectations of a top 5 pick. Reed, Palumalu, Asumagha, Revis, Charles Woodson, and Eric Berry (after 1 season I would say so). 6 players out of 128 DB starters league wide - That’s not many. In short – no DB is worth a top 5 pick in the 2011 draft (because Peterson is horribly over rated and projects to S more than CB anyways)
H2o Posted January 20, 2011 Posted January 20, 2011 Eric Berry seems to have been worth it for the Chiefs.
Alphadawg7 Posted January 20, 2011 Posted January 20, 2011 A good article from Walter Football about this. There have been eight safeties taken in the top-15 since 1991. The author looks at how those safeties did, and draws a conclusion about whether it's worthwhile to use an early pick on a safety. The answer to this question is yes. In fact, the only 2 positions in football NEVER worthy of a top 5 pick are Punter and Kicker. Every other single postion in football is worth a top 5 pick for the right player. Is it commonly a position worhty of being taken top 5, no. However, if you go back into the years that Troy or Ed Reed were drafted, I promise you that GM's would take them top 5 over other players in that draft. These guys are game changers and franchise players. That being said, there just are not many of these caliber that come along. So, generally its not a position you will have players coming out worthy of the top 5 pick, but if there is a guy like Reed or Troy (like E. Berry last year) then he is certainly worthy of a draft slot that high.
silvermike Posted January 20, 2011 Posted January 20, 2011 If you redid the 2002 draft, which five players would you take over Reed? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_NFL_Draft Peppers, McKinnie, Freeney?
1B4IDie Posted January 20, 2011 Posted January 20, 2011 If you redid the 2002 draft, which five players would you take over Reed? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_NFL_Draft Peppers, McKinnie, Freeney? Ed Reed isn't "Ed Reed" without Ray Lewis and the Ravens Front7 allowing him to play fast and loose.
silvermike Posted January 20, 2011 Posted January 20, 2011 Ed Reed isn't "Ed Reed" without Ray Lewis and the Ravens Front7 allowing him to play fast and loose. Well, of course not, but that's true of everyone else as well. And besides - it's 2002. Ray Lewis isn't there to draft. Neither is Kelly Gregg, Haloti Ngata, etc. You've got the guys on the board. I think you're better off with Ed Reed working behind a less-stellar front seven then drafting mid-range talent up front and hoping that it works out. That's how teams burn top picks on Wendall Bryant or Ryan Sims.
Packerland Bills Fan Posted January 20, 2011 Posted January 20, 2011 No, I don't think you do. Perhaps a player has #1 overall talent, you could take him at say pick #8. If not, pass. The question with Peterson is if he is too thick to play CB and has to switch to S. If I were Buddy Nix I would go DL.
yungmack Posted January 20, 2011 Posted January 20, 2011 Let's say that Troy Polamalu was coming out this year. Do YOU think he'd be worth a top 5 pick? Me, I'd run to the podium to draft him at #3 this year. If you watch the Steelers at all, you already know they go from an okay team when he's out to a great team when he's playing.
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