Orton's Arm Posted January 19, 2011 Posted January 19, 2011 I might dispute Matt Schaub's designation as franchise. I also dispute your assertion that franchise QBs can be added by choice. One never knows who will rise to the franchise level, despite the punditry that purports to know. Any QB drafted is a gamble. To say you should never "pass up" the chance suggests there is some guarantee of success. There is no such thing. PTR I didn't think of Matt Schaub as a franchise QB myself until I looked at his numbers. His career average is 7.8 yards per pass attempt, compared to 7.6 for Peyton Manning. His passer rating is 91.5, compared to 94.9 for Manning. Schaub has a TD/INT ratio of 1.6, compared to 2.0 for Manning. That last number is solidly in Manning's favor, but otherwise the two QBs are statistically comparable. I'm not saying Schaub is as good as Manning. But any time you see a quarterback put up numbers as good as Schaub's, you feel like you're doing him a disservice by lumping him in with the "solid starters" QBs--guys whose numbers are significantly worse than those--rather than with the franchise QBs, where Schaub's stats fit right in. If someone who watches a lot of Texans games wants to make the argument that his stats overstate the quality of his passing, I'm certainly willing to listen. As for passing up a franchise QB--I did not mean to suggest that there was such a thing as a zero risk player. But there are players generally considered low risk guys likely to have good careers. Bruce Smith and Peyton Manning come to mind for their respective positions. A quarterback in that category is particularly valuable because franchise QBs are so rare. But the fact that franchise QBs are so rare also means that there might not be a franchise guy available for the Bills to take in the 2011 draft.
billsfan89 Posted January 19, 2011 Posted January 19, 2011 (edited) Eli Manning is a franchise QB and Matt Schuab is a solid starter. Eli won a Super Bowl and has played really well in each year after that going 12-4 in 08, 8-8 in 09, and 10-6 this year. Throw in the fact that the two years before they went to the Super Bowl they were a playoff team that's a pretty good 6 year run for Eli so far. Eli since his rookie year has taken the Giants to records of 11-5 (Playoffs Division title), 8-8 (Playoffs), 10-6 (Super Bowl Champions), 12-4 (Division Champs), 8-8, and 10-6. That's a dam good 6 year stretch that includes 4 playoff appearances, 2 Division titles, 1 Super Bowl Title, and never a sub .500 season. Don't let the stats fool you Eli is a winner and Schuab is nothing more then a fantasy guy who isn't a franchise QB until he can get his team to the playoffs on a consistent basis. Schuab puts up really good numbers and is a starting caliber NFL QB. But there is a story beyond the numbers. Its about winning and Schuab has the talent around him to win yet his team seems to be mired in the playoff bubble. Edited January 19, 2011 by billsfan89
Leonidas II Posted January 19, 2011 Posted January 19, 2011 Matt Schaub is clearly a franchise QB, I don't know how anyone can dispute that. So is Donovan. Eli and Carson should be too, even though Carson had a ****ty season. I would also include Matt Ryan, although I think the jury is still out on Flacco (although everyone loves to lump them together since they were drafted in the same year and both led their respective teams to the playoffs as rookies).
fridge Posted January 19, 2011 Posted January 19, 2011 How is Matt Shaub a franchise QB, but Carson Palmer is not? I don't like either of them, but Palmer has been the guy there since 02, hes gotten them into the playoffs, and has had at least two top5 in the league seasons... Honestly, if being the face of the franchise and the starter of a team for 9+ years isnt a franchise qb I have no idea what is.
Buffalo Barbarian Posted January 19, 2011 Posted January 19, 2011 My goal was to find out the pace at which franchise QBs enter the league. To achieve that, I looked at previous drafts, starting in 1998. Let me know if I missed anyone. 1998 Franchise QBs added: 2. Peyton Manning, first overall, 7.6 yards per attempt. Kurt Warner, UDFA, 7.9 yards per attempt. Solid starters added: 1. Matt Hasselbeck, 6th round (6.9 yards per attempt). 1999 Franchise QBs added: none. Solid starters added: 1. Donovan McNabb, 2nd overall. (6.9 yards per attempt.) 2000 Franchise QBs added: 1. Tom Brady, sixth round. (7.4 yards per attempt.) Solid starters added: 2. Chad Pennington, first round. (7.2 yards per attempt.) Marc Bulger, sixth round (also 7.2 yards per attempt). 2001 Franchise QBs added: 1. Drew Brees, second round. (7.3 yards per attempt.) Solid starters added: 1. Michael Vick, first overall, 6.9 yards per attempt. (Though Vick had 8.1 yards per attempt this year, and looked like a franchise QB.) 2002 Franchise QBs added: none Solid starters added: none 2003 Franchise QBs added: none Solid starters added: 1. Carson Palmer, 1st overall, 7.1 yards per attempt. (Close to being a franchise QB.) 2004 Franchise QBs added: 3. Philip Rivers, 4th overall, 8.0 yards per attempt. Ben Roethlisberger, 11th overall, 8.0 yards per attempt. Matt Schaub, 3rd round, 7.8 yards per attempt. Solid starters added: 1. Eli Manning, 1st overall, 6.8 yards per attempt. (Though Manning has averaged 7.9 and 7.4 yards per attempt the last two years.) 2005 Franchise QBs added: 1. Aaron Rodgers, 1st round, 7.9 yards per attempt. Solid starters added: 4. Jason Campbell, 1st round, 6.7 yards per attempt. Kyle Orton, 4th round, 6.5 yards per attempt. Matt Cassell, 7th round, 6.7 yards per attempt. Ryan Fitzpatrick, 7th round, 6.0 yards per attempt. (This past season he averaged 6.8 yards per attempt.) 2006 Franchise QBs added: none. Solid starters added: 1. Jay Cutler, 11th overall, 7.2 yards per attempt. (This past season he averaged 7.6 yards per attempt.) 2007 Franchise QBs added: none. Solid starters added: none. 2008 Franchise QBs added: none Solid starters added: 2. Matt Ryan, 3rd overall, 6.9 yards per attempt. Joe Flacco, 1st round, 7.2 yards per attempt. That's eight franchise QBs added to the league over an eleven year period, or less than one a year. Assuming the above is typical, it means that each NFL team will, on average, add a franchise QB once every 44 years. Because such opportunities are so rare, and because franchise QBs are so instrumental in determining the outcomes of games, a team should never pass up the chance to get a franchise QB if it doesn't already have one. I think you missed a few franchise guys, they may not be hall of famers but are franchise which means a good starter for 7-15 years or show that potential, So you should add: McNabb, Vick, Palmer, Eli, maybe Cutler,Matt Ryan (dude seriously? you missed this one) probably Flacco and Sanchez. I'm not going to go through all the math to figure that but it is a lot higher than 44 years a team. Also you should have went back to the 70's to get a bigger cross section of the modern era. It would have been interesting to see how many busts were in those drafts as well. All that said WHEN you get a franchise QB take him if not don't even waste a pick on em. But who knows if a guy will really be franchise or not its all crap shoot in the end. So maybe we should trade back to get Gabbert or Mallett but I wouldn't take em at 3.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 19, 2011 Posted January 19, 2011 wouldnt a FQ help the offense move the chains, score more points........and keep the defense off the field thereby preventing the other team from scoring as much? Only if he can single-handedly protect himself, reliably catch the passes he throws, and run the ball.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 19, 2011 Posted January 19, 2011 My goal was to find out the pace at which franchise QBs enter the league. To achieve that, I looked at previous drafts, starting in 1998. Let me know if I missed anyone. <...> That's eight franchise QBs added to the league over an eleven year period, or less than one a year. Assuming the above is typical, it means that each NFL team will, on average, add a franchise QB once every 44 years. Because such opportunities are so rare, and because franchise QBs are so instrumental in determining the outcomes of games, a team should never pass up the chance to get a franchise QB if it doesn't already have one. Great analysis. I don't think anyone would argue that the team should draft a franchise QB if one is available. That simply begs the question asked in another thread: What is a franchise quarterback, other than something recognized in hindsight? How do we know if we have the chance to draft a franchise QB #3, or just one more stretch development prospect who won't contribute for years if ever? Taking your assessment of franchise guys at face value, 3 (arguably 4) of the 8 certainly weren't recognized as potential franchise guys coming out of their draft year.
Stealth Posted January 19, 2011 Posted January 19, 2011 I'm not that impressed by Matty Checkdown. He has gaudy stats, and one of the lowest yards per attempt avg of all 32 starting qb's outside of Bradford, and I'm willing to cut Bradford some slack since he was in a horribly conservative offense and is a rookie. Go take a look at the difference in his stats as well in indoor and outdoor games. If I was a falcons fan it would be kind of alarming. Outdoors 6 76.2 124 219 56.6 1295 215.8 5.9 9 6 Indoors 10 100.2 233 352 66.2 2410 241.0 6.8 19 3 Yeah they finished 14-2 and his home record is outstanding, but when I think of franchise qb's Matt Ryan doesn't jump out at me.
OldTimer1960 Posted January 19, 2011 Posted January 19, 2011 My goal was to find out the pace at which franchise QBs enter the league. To achieve that, I looked at previous drafts, starting in 1998. Let me know if I missed anyone. 1998 Franchise QBs added: 2. Peyton Manning, first overall, 7.6 yards per attempt. Kurt Warner, UDFA, 7.9 yards per attempt. Solid starters added: 1. Matt Hasselbeck, 6th round (6.9 yards per attempt). 1999 Franchise QBs added: none. Solid starters added: 1. Donovan McNabb, 2nd overall. (6.9 yards per attempt.) 2000 Franchise QBs added: 1. Tom Brady, sixth round. (7.4 yards per attempt.) Solid starters added: 2. Chad Pennington, first round. (7.2 yards per attempt.) Marc Bulger, sixth round (also 7.2 yards per attempt). 2001 Franchise QBs added: 1. Drew Brees, second round. (7.3 yards per attempt.) Solid starters added: 1. Michael Vick, first overall, 6.9 yards per attempt. (Though Vick had 8.1 yards per attempt this year, and looked like a franchise QB.) 2002 Franchise QBs added: none Solid starters added: none 2003 Franchise QBs added: none Solid starters added: 1. Carson Palmer, 1st overall, 7.1 yards per attempt. (Close to being a franchise QB.) 2004 Franchise QBs added: 3. Philip Rivers, 4th overall, 8.0 yards per attempt. Ben Roethlisberger, 11th overall, 8.0 yards per attempt. Matt Schaub, 3rd round, 7.8 yards per attempt. Solid starters added: 1. Eli Manning, 1st overall, 6.8 yards per attempt. (Though Manning has averaged 7.9 and 7.4 yards per attempt the last two years.) 2005 Franchise QBs added: 1. Aaron Rodgers, 1st round, 7.9 yards per attempt. Solid starters added: 4. Jason Campbell, 1st round, 6.7 yards per attempt. Kyle Orton, 4th round, 6.5 yards per attempt. Matt Cassell, 7th round, 6.7 yards per attempt. Ryan Fitzpatrick, 7th round, 6.0 yards per attempt. (This past season he averaged 6.8 yards per attempt.) 2006 Franchise QBs added: none. Solid starters added: 1. Jay Cutler, 11th overall, 7.2 yards per attempt. (This past season he averaged 7.6 yards per attempt.) 2007 Franchise QBs added: none. Solid starters added: none. 2008 Franchise QBs added: none Solid starters added: 2. Matt Ryan, 3rd overall, 6.9 yards per attempt. Joe Flacco, 1st round, 7.2 yards per attempt. That's eight franchise QBs added to the league over an eleven year period, or less than one a year. Assuming the above is typical, it means that each NFL team will, on average, add a franchise QB once every 44 years. Because such opportunities are so rare, and because franchise QBs are so instrumental in determining the outcomes of games, a team should never pass up the chance to get a franchise QB if it doesn't already have one. Nice analysis and I generally agree with your premise, however the BIG challenge is IDENTIFYING the franchise QBs. I don't think that there would be any debate that Tom Brady, Drew Brees or Kurt Warner would have been taken #1 overall instead of in the 6th round, 2nd round and not at all respectively -IF teams knew that they were going to be franchise QBs. Problem is, teams didn't know that. Likewise, it would be very interesting to see for each of those years other QBs that were picked in the first round and didn't pan out as even OK starters. The issue isn't whether a team should draft a sure-thing franchise QB, it is whether a team can identify a franchise QB. If they see one and are sure, then they absolutely should draft him regardless of other needs.
finknottle Posted January 19, 2011 Author Posted January 19, 2011 The issue isn't whether a team should draft a sure-thing franchise QB, it is whether a team can identify a franchise QB. If they see one and are sure, then they absolutely should draft him regardless of other needs. One problem. Is anybody in the league 100% sure how a player will pan out? I mean, other than internet posters?
Dorkington Posted January 19, 2011 Posted January 19, 2011 Similar to PTR's comment, what's your definition of a franchise QB? How is Schaub a franchise guy, but Eli is just a solid starter? For that matter, how are most all of your "solid starters" not considered franchise QBs? Vick was the unquestioned starter and face of the Falcons, and the league for that matter. Yet he's not a franchise QB? Ryan and Flacco are the unquestioned starters from day 1 and aren't being benched any time soon. But, they're not franchise QBs? IMO, a franchise QB designation should be less about stats or wins (which your determination seems to be based) and more about his position with the team. Flacco, for example, is a franchise QB. Debate his stats all you want, but he's the Ravens starter and the team has zero interest in trying to replace him. Ryan, Cutler, Eli on your list all fit that bill. For that matter, I think you could add a few guys like Freeman in Tampa, Sanchez, Romo, and Bradford (off the top of my head) to the list. Not all franchise QBs pan out and win championships or even play for 10-15 years - lots of variables affect that. But, that's what separates the greats from the also rans. Romo, for example, is the face of Dallas and has been their QB for several years and by all accounts will be their QB next year. I doubt he'll ever take them to the SB, but that doesn't mean he isn't a franchise QB. He's just not a very good one. I agree with this definition. Franchise QB means, to me, that he's the guy for the indefinite future. Regardless of stats, wins, etc.
DreReed83 Posted January 19, 2011 Posted January 19, 2011 Eli Manning is a franchise QB and Matt Schuab is a solid starter. Eli won a Super Bowl and has played really well in each year after that going 12-4 in 08, 8-8 in 09, and 10-6 this year. Throw in the fact that the two years before they went to the Super Bowl they were a playoff team that's a pretty good 6 year run for Eli so far. Eli since his rookie year has taken the Giants to records of 11-5 (Playoffs Division title), 8-8 (Playoffs), 10-6 (Super Bowl Champions), 12-4 (Division Champs), 8-8, and 10-6. That's a dam good 6 year stretch that includes 4 playoff appearances, 2 Division titles, 1 Super Bowl Title, and never a sub .500 season. Don't let the stats fool you Eli is a winner and Schuab is nothing more then a fantasy guy who isn't a franchise QB until he can get his team to the playoffs on a consistent basis. Schuab puts up really good numbers and is a starting caliber NFL QB. But there is a story beyond the numbers. Its about winning and Schuab has the talent around him to win yet his team seems to be mired in the playoff bubble. Eli Manning is a franchise QB? Again. I'd only label 5 QBs in this league right now as "franchise QB's" and Eli is definatley not one of them. The guy is a turnover MACHINE who relies on his defense and running game to win. I hate the Patriots but that super bowl win was a fluke. With his lucky pass to Tyree. Give me a break. How can you label Manning as a franchise QB and not Schaub? Because one has a better defense than the other? That's the only difference really. I consider both good QB's not not "franchise QBs."
PromoTheRobot Posted January 19, 2011 Posted January 19, 2011 Ed Arm, your comment about Bruce Smith actually proves my point. You completely forget how bad Smith played his rookie year. Bruce showed up in Buffalo unmotivated and out of shape. He was on his way to becoming one of the all-time draft busts when Marv Levy finally got through to him. The rest, as they say, is history. If Bruce Smith didn't finally take some pride in his legacy, we'd all be talking about yet another colossal Bills draft failure. PTR
Sisyphean Bills Posted January 19, 2011 Posted January 19, 2011 Eli Manning is a franchise QB? Again. I'd only label 5 QBs in this league right now as "franchise QB's" and Eli is definatley not one of them. The guy is a turnover MACHINE who relies on his defense and running game to win. I hate the Patriots but that super bowl win was a fluke. With his lucky pass to Tyree. Give me a break. How can you label Manning as a franchise QB and not Schaub? Because one has a better defense than the other? That's the only difference really. I consider both good QB's not not "franchise QBs." Eli is debatable. I think he happens to be a leader on that team and the catalyst of their offense. On the other hand, his play can be erratic and people still think of the Giants running game and defense as big reasons for their success. As far as the point of having to be in a Super Bowl (not your post), that's bunk. Bert Jones never got to a Super Bowl, but was a great and franchise QB. Phillip Rivers carries the Chargers and he may not get to a Super Bowl. On the other hand, you have Rex Grossman, who got to a Super Bowl despite himself and is just a fringe journeyman QB.
xsoldier54 Posted January 19, 2011 Posted January 19, 2011 OK, help me out gugny or anyone else. What makes Bradford a "franchise QB"? His 1 yr stats are 60.6% completion, 6 YPA, rating 76.6. 18 TD, 15 Int. 7 wins, 9 losses Is it his stats? Is it his draft position? Is it the intent of his drafting team (to make him the long-term starter)? Stafford #1 overall last year. His stats b4 injury: 54.5% completion, 5.9 YPA, rating 67.1, 19 TD, 21 INT 2 wins, 11 losses. Is he a franchise QB? Same questions? Here is a list of all QB drafted #1 from 2005 to 2010. Which of them are franchise QB? Why? Year Pick Player Tm Games Comp% TD Int 2010 1 Sam Bradford STL 16 60% 18 15 2010 25 Tim Tebow DEN 9 50% 5 3 2009 1 Matthew Stafford DET 13 55% 19 21 2009 5 Mark Sanchez NYJ 31 54% 29 33 2009 17 Josh Freeman TAM 26 59% 35 24 2008 3 Matt Ryan ATL 46 61% 66 34 2008 18 Joe Flacco BAL 48 62% 60 34 2007 1 JaMarcus Russell OAK 31 52% 18 23 2007 22 Brady Quinn CLE 14 52% 10 9 2006 3 Vince Young TEN 54 58% 42 42 2006 10 Matt Leinart ARI 29 57% 14 20 2006 11 Jay Cutler DEN 68 62% 104 79 2005 1 Alex Smith SFO 54 57% 51 53 2005 24 Aaron Rodgers GNB 54 64% 87 32 2005 25 Jason Campbell WAS 65 61% 68 46 Nice. You're saying franchise QB can't be explained or quantitated and is entirely in the eye of the beholder. In other words, it is whatever the writer wants it to be, and it isn't whatever the writer doesn't want it to be I think you're putting too much stock in the tag "franchise QB". What a team needs is a QB who knows how to make plays and win football games. Who cares what you call him?
Orton's Arm Posted January 19, 2011 Posted January 19, 2011 (edited) I think you missed a few franchise guys, they may not be hall of famers but are franchise which means a good starter for 7-15 years or show that potential, So you should add: McNabb, Vick, Palmer, Eli, maybe Cutler,Matt Ryan (dude seriously? you missed this one) probably Flacco and Sanchez. I'm not going to go through all the math to figure that but it is a lot higher than 44 years a team. Also you should have went back to the 70's to get a bigger cross section of the modern era. It would have been interesting to see how many busts were in those drafts as well. All that said WHEN you get a franchise QB take him if not don't even waste a pick on em. But who knows if a guy will really be franchise or not its all crap shoot in the end. So maybe we should trade back to get Gabbert or Mallett but I wouldn't take em at 3. First, thanks to everyone who complimented my earlier, longer post! As for what you've written above, I probably should have created a third category of quarterbacks. Guys who are more than just solid starters, but less than true franchise QBs. Many of the people you mentioned would fall into that borderline category. Now I'll address the guys you mentioned specifically. McNabb has a big name and was taken very early in the draft. But his career average of 6.9 yards per attempt didn't impress me as being franchise QB-worthy. It's not a bad average by any means. Just not as good as what I'd expect from a franchise QB. Likewise, Michael Vick has put up franchise-QB caliber numbers this year, and did a solid job last year as well. But his career averages are significantly less impressive due to his time in Atlanta. Eli Manning is another guy in that category: these last two years he's averaged 7.9 and 7.4 yards per attempt, which puts him in the same statistical category as his brother's career average. But Eli Manning's career average is a far less impressive 6.9 yards per attempt. You could point to Eli and Vick as two guys who have evolved into franchise QBs over the last year or two, but who have played well below that level for most of their prior careers. Jay Cutler's career average is 7.2 yards per attempt, and I felt a bit guilty about lumping him in with the solid starters. This past season he averaged a gaudy 7.6 yards per attempt. He clearly belongs at very least in the borderline category I mentioned above. If he maintains his current 7.6 average over the next few years, he'll have become a franchise QB. Matt Ryan had a very, very impressive 7.9 yards per attempt his rookie year, which is why people started throwing his name around as a franchise QB. But in years two and three of his three years in the NFL, he averaged 6.5 and 6.5 yards per attempt, respectively. That's not a franchise QB average. In fact it's exactly the same as Trent Edwards' career average for yards per attempt! While I'm sure Matt Ryan is a better QB than Trent Edwards, there's no way I'm putting a guy with numbers like those in the franchise QB category! I thought about putting Flacco in the franchise QB category: his career average is 7.2. But he didn't look like a franchise QB in his playoff game against the Steelers. He probably belongs in the borderline category. Mark Sanchez averaged 6.7 yards per attempt his rookie year, and 6.5 yards per attempt his second year. That 6.5 in particular is a Trent Edwards number, not a franchise QB number. As long as we're comparing Sanchez's stats to Edwards', it's important to bear in mind that Sanchez was given a much better OL, a better running game, better TEs, a better offensive coaching staff, and an overall better situation than the one Edwards had. For Sanchez to fail to put up better sophomore year numbers than Edwards strongly suggests very unimpressive things indeed about the quality of Sanchez's play. I'll grant that Sanchez stepped up his play in the playoffs, and was an important part of the Jets' recent win against the Patriots. But a franchise QB should be able to play that way all the time, not just in the postseason. As for identifying which players will turn out to be franchise QBs in the NFL draft, teams should (and probably do) go about it in the following way. You make a list of the things you want your franchise quarterback to be able to do. Throwing the ball accurately, reading defenses well, hitting receivers in perfect stride, etc. Then you rate the quarterback from -10 to 10 on each trait, with -10 meaning that he's proven he can't do that thing at all, and 10 meaning he's conclusively proven he can do it at a very high level. Zero means that you have no idea one way or the other if he can or can't do it. The more high numbers you see on that list, the safer it is to draft that guy. Edited January 19, 2011 by Edwards' Arm
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