We'll Be Drafting Our Franchise QB This Year

[Hplarrm]

Gailey had pretty good success in Pittsburgh and Kansas City with woefully inexperienced QBs, Kordell Stewart and Tyler Thigpen. Stewart had been splitting time at wide receiver in his first two years in the NFL. Thigpen was a 7th round pick out of Coastal Carolina. Both were pressed into action due to injuries.

 

Gailey did a good job with both quarterbacks, statistically and otherwise. In fact Gailey has been lauded for taking disastrous situations involving quarterback injuries and getting good production from backup players.

Don't you think though that the fact is there is a difference between a draftee and a vet who even if he has never proved to be a legit and successful QB has been in actual NFL huddles and has had the opportunity to get NFL coaching and watch games from the sidelines rather than on TV.

 

The Gailey MO is to take vets (and in many cases vets who sucked as QBs in previous starts) and mold these players into successful QBs in his system. This was certainly the case with the two examples you site since Stewart was obviously talented but until Gailey got a hold of this vet he put him in a system which worked for him.

 

Thigpen also was a two year pro with the Fins (where he even got the typical failed rookie start) until Gailey rescued his career.

 

Please educate me about them, but Gailey has no experience that I know about of him coaching up a rookie into a productive starter. Fitz more correctly fits the past Gailey actions than a Ponder does.

 

If one wants to make the case that he will go in a completely different direction than his past success one needs to make the case besides Ponder looks good on paper to be convincing.

[Hplarrm]

My sense is that we are looking at spending a 4th rounder and no higher on a QB.

 

These I think are the reasons:

 

1. Does anyone know of any real records of a rookie QB running a Gailey offense?

 

In fact, offhand I can only think of Thigpen having seen enough NFL defenses and NFL speeds be able to run it in his third season.

 

It appears to me based on what Gailey has done in the past (not a perfect predictor but a pretty good indicator that someone needs to state the reasons why they think a player is so good he will see PT under Gailey until his third year.

 

2. I do not see Mr. Ralph and the Bills faithful having the football intelligence to wait a couple of years for this rookie to be able to run the Gailey O without rushing him along and ruining what chances he had as they did with JPL, Todd Collins and potentially with Edwards.

 

3. The Bills need at least one DE (they say two), 1 OLB (probably two in my judgment) and they say they are targeting safety and CB as well. The prototype Gailey QB is actually a Fitz type (very bright with a quick read and mobile enough to survive behind our inadequate OL. They will have to forgo a bunch of immediate needs if they spend an early pick on a QB.

 

4. The OL is at least a player and a half away from adequacy (RT and a swing guy) and also a year of chemistry. Fitzy likely will never be a franchise quality QB, but he is a quick read, fast release and mobil enough that he survives behind an inadequate OL. Not only would an early QB pick get big money I think it is pretty doubtful he survives if we play him.

[boyst]

I wish I shared the same faith that you do but we still took CJ last year and we had just as many needs. I am more worried that the coaches are so optomistic on him then the fans are - whether we're just beaten and worn out on believing or if they are just mistaken.

 

Besides, any rookie QB is not going to start.

[Nasty]

I wish I shared the same faith that you do but we still took CJ last year and we had just as many needs. I am more worried that the coaches are so optomistic on him then the fans are - whether we're just beaten and worn out on believing or if they are just mistaken.

 

Besides, any rookie QB is not going to start.

I think last year they picked the best player available because they (Nix and Chan) were still getting to know the guys they had and learn the personalities on the team. Watching tape says something but not everything about a player, you can't see his heart or his attitude on tape. That is why I think they were preaching the best player available last year.

[Zulu Cthulhu]

Thanks for telling us "the deal" OP. Your statements about Ralph Wilson directly contradict what Wilson himself has said over the past year-that the Bills need a QB.

 

Good effort.

[4BillsintheBurgh]

We need a backup qb at this point. Brohm seems to be out and I'm assuming Brown will not be ready for that role if there are games in 2011. Then there's the question of the free agency period. I think there has to be some chance for them to a vet at some point after the draft, but can they count on getting a guy they want? So if Brown is not the developmental guy then okay, go ahead and pick a later round qb. But if there is a franchise qb there at #3 we should take him because he should be able to claim the backup role for the next year or two.

 

I think Chan will have some patience with a qb as long as he has the correct mental makeup. I think this past years actions have proven that - they gave Trent a chance and when they saw he was not up to the task despite the physical skills they kicked him to the curb.

 

The other positions take a back seat to picking up a franchise qb. Big money will be paid to the player at #3 anyway unless the rookie pay scale is implemented for this draft.

 

Buddy/Chan/Ralph have repeated said that we are building for the long term, not next year. This means picking the best long term player, and I can't think of a better position to have a top player at than qb, can you? We need talent on this team, that's what a pick like spiller is all about - getting talent on the roster for the long term.

 

With the rest of the picks they will address the needs of the team, just like they did last year. I'm not saying it's right or wrong, I just think that's what they're going to do. I will say I wholeheartedly agree that is in the best long term interests for the Bills. They just need to pick the correct players more frequently than most of the rest of the teams which is where the problem has been in the past.

 

They've added 5 DL/OL in the past 2 drafts and I would be suprised if we don't get another 2 in rounds 2-4.

[Hplarrm]

In the end, the NFL is a business, and one of the maxims of business is that the customer is always right. We know that this does not result at all in the real world in a business owner doing what the customer may actually want, but the business owner is not gonna be an owner for long if he totally disregards customer wishes.

 

In the Bills case, the fan base (the customer in this case) and the local media (which uses its megaphone to influence the local fan base or at least a noisy whiny part of it in the case of WGR radio and Jerry Sullivan at the Buffalo Snooze) make their nickels and seem to delight in fostering QB controversies. Mr. Ralph has fallen victim to that himself starting with the handshake deal only he could make (and utter football snafu as he bet Kelly could be rewarded in his next FA contract and he did not last long enough as a player to have a next contract.

 

Mr. Ralph has all the appearance of Ahab chasing Moby in the eternal quest the Bills keep making and demolishing the team to do it in search of the next Jim Kelly.

 

At any rate, my point is do you really think that the Bills are gonna spend a 1st rounder (and based on the Trent example anything better than a 4th round QB), and simply let him sit on the bench and learn the game as he almost certainly will need to do in order to have a good career.

 

The sad dichotomy of the situation the Bills are in is that:

 

I. Nix is right that building through the draft MUST be a central part of the strategy for building a winning team (this is not to say it is the ONLY part, but definitely a central strategy). If a team does not draft well it is quite unlikely to do well.

 

I. However, the quest to find the next Jimbo is so huge on the football hearts of fans and most of all Mr. Ralph that the pressure to actually train a QB well here makes the task impossible.

 

Literally football insane moves have dominated how the QB situation has been handled by the Bills in the past decade plus:

 

A. Mr. Ralph's handshake deal with Jimbo was just incorrect and bad football judgment.

B. The Bills stretching a bit in the view of many observers to take TC with a #2 and then as reality has shown us making him the starter while he had a clear happy feet problem that has proved his undoing as a winner. We rushed him into a starter role specifically because Mr. Ralph's football judgment of how much Kelly had left was wrong wrong wronh.

C. The whole DF/RJ debacle as best as this observer could tell came from:

 

1. The Bills promising Flutie at least a fair shot on the field at winning the starting job (at least in his perception)

2. The Bills taking action which ran directly counter to this by signing RJ to a huge guaranteed deal.

3. The contractual situation was created where if RJ did not play and got benched (an outcome which happened because it turned out he was injury prone which was clearly forseeable) where if Flutie played like AJ Smith said he would all his achieved bonuses would not only count against the next cap but would be rolled into his base pay. We had to extend DF if only to spread the cap impact over a longer contract.

4. Mr. Ralph personally and publicly deemed RJ the starter after he folded and spindled an Indy team which really quit on the game after Bennett got hurt (and ultimately IRed) and it became clear from the scoreboard that the team they needed to lose was going to win). RJ beat up a team which was saving itself and Mr. Ralph publicly declared him the starter. Given the results simply a bad football judgment.

5. The whole Billy Joe Hobert escapade (where there is no smoking gun that this was Mr. Ralph's doing but in this case given the role he was acquired for and giving up a first day draft pick for him if Mr. Ralph was not involved that absence would be negligence.

6. Acquiring Bledsoe was actually not a bad move from my standpoint. One year of performance as well as could be hoped for (Comeback player of the year and if you want to claim he was not one of the best three QBs in the AFC that year than name who you claim is better that year) but then followed by a performance which was about as bad as one could be by a starting QB. The mistake was not just calling this a wash and actually extending his contract. Again no smoking gun on Mr. Ralph like the handshake and the RJ to starter bad football judgments but again it would be negligence if the major moves to extend Bledsoe and trade for Hobert did not see serious involvement by the owner.

7. Promoting JP to the starter role after Bledsoe went in the ditch when even JP was on record saying he did not deserve the starter role.

8. The Edwards debacle (less blame for this one as the Wilfork injury forced our hand) but again clearly Trent was effective initially, but once the Bills coaches got a hold of him and opponents got some tape, Edwards was simply uneffective.

 

I simply do not see anyway we draft a QB at #3 or anywhere early and then let him learn as he should.

 

Unless you want to declare that Newton or Gabbert is the next Dan Marino, I do not see the Bills intelligently spending more than a 4th on a QB.

 

Actually given that the past Gailey MO has been to rehab vet QBs who have actually failed badly in previous starts (Fieldler, Kordell, Bulger, Thigpen had one start and got cut by Miami and even Fitzy to some extent). Gailey MIGHT draft a QB and then train him up. However, he has none, zero, nada, did I say none yet record of having developed a rookie QB into a productive QB.

 

I think folks are making a bad football judgment when they read into the skills on paper of a rookie QB that he is a Gailey type. This is simply wrong because the Gailey type has always been a vet (and usually a declared failed vet at that).

 

 

We need a backup qb at this point. Brohm seems to be out and I'm assuming Brown will not be ready for that role if there are games in 2011. Then there's the question of the free agency period. I think there has to be some chance for them to a vet at some point after the draft, but can they count on getting a guy they want? So if Brown is not the developmental guy then okay, go ahead and pick a later round qb. But if there is a franchise qb there at #3 we should take him because he should be able to claim the backup role for the next year or two.

 

I think Chan will have some patience with a qb as long as he has the correct mental makeup. I think this past years actions have proven that - they gave Trent a chance and when they saw he was not up to the task despite the physical skills they kicked him to the curb.

 

The other positions take a back seat to picking up a franchise qb. Big money will be paid to the player at #3 anyway unless the rookie pay scale is implemented for this draft.

 

Buddy/Chan/Ralph have repeated said that we are building for the long term, not next year. This means picking the best long term player, and I can't think of a better position to have a top player at than qb, can you? We need talent on this team, that's what a pick like spiller is all about - getting talent on the roster for the long term.

 

With the rest of the picks they will address the needs of the team, just like they did last year. I'm not saying it's right or wrong, I just think that's what they're going to do. I will say I wholeheartedly agree that is in the best long term interests for the Bills. They just need to pick the correct players more frequently than most of the rest of the teams which is where the problem has been in the past.

 

They've added 5 DL/OL in the past 2 drafts and I would be suprised if we don't get another 2 in rounds 2-4.

[mattsox]

And it won't be in the 1st round. We'll be drafting Christian Ponder in the 2nd round. This is exactly the kind of player that Nix likes. Chan will also be coaching him in the Senior Bowl and will fall in love with this kid.

 

He has everything you'd look for in a franchise QB. 3 year starter in a pro style offense. Very smart; graduated in 2.5 years w/ a 3.7 GPA and is currently finishing up a graduate degree. Good size and strength with very good athleticism. Strong arm capable of making all the NFL throws with ease. Can read defenses and go through progressions.

 

His draft stock was hurt because he played through injuries his senior year and has had a couple of surgeries on his throwing arm. However, if our doctors find nothing is structurally wrong with his arm and everything checks out, he's going to be our pick at the top of the 2nd.

 

Been following him and watching him since last year and this guy just looks like an NFL quarterback. He literally carried resurrected and carried that Florida State team. He just needs to be coached up and who better to do that than our very own Chan?

 

Nope, we'll get Luck next year. Ponder we'll be a good back up though, maybe...

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I might be guilty of scanning this thread without understanding some of the later posts (hplarrm)…

 

I don't think any rookie QB drafted by the Bills will see any appreciable playing time this year.

 

The Bills are a rebuilding team and a first year QB would most likely benefit most from sitting and watching. Yes, it can be argued that a rookie QB has more to gain by playing/learning than sitting/learning.

 

But here's the thing. The Bills are trying to build other areas of the team and having a rookie QB destabilizes this process. With Fitz, the team has a firm baseline to evaluate other positions…fewer moving parts. This, I think is important.

 

Gailey's record (or lack) of "coaching up" a rookie QB is of no concern to me, personally.

 

If the work stoppage continues into the time usually allotted for rookie minicamp and OTA, you can be sure that a rookie QB will be so far behind the learning curve that it would be pointless to play him this year, IMO.

 

Wherever the Bills draft a QB (and I do believe they will draft one to replace Brohm) I feel reasonably sure that that player will not see appreciable playing time this year.

[Bills(70)]

And it won't be in the 1st round. We'll be drafting Christian Ponder in the 2nd round. This is exactly the kind of player that Nix likes. Chan will also be coaching him in the Senior Bowl and will fall in love with this kid.

 

He has everything you'd look for in a franchise QB. 3 year starter in a pro style offense. Very smart; graduated in 2.5 years w/ a 3.7 GPA and is currently finishing up a graduate degree. Good size and strength with very good athleticism. Strong arm capable of making all the NFL throws with ease. Can read defenses and go through progressions.

 

His draft stock was hurt because he played through injuries his senior year and has had a couple of surgeries on his throwing arm. However, if our doctors find nothing is structurally wrong with his arm and everything checks out, he's going to be our pick at the top of the 2nd.

 

Been following him and watching him since last year and this guy just looks like an NFL quarterback. He literally carried resurrected and carried that Florida State team. He just needs to be coached up and who better to do that than our very own Chan?

I am happy to see a QB situation discussed that doesn't include the #3 overall pick.

 

Cam Newton would be a HUGE mistake at the 3rd overall. I have no confidence that kid can come in and do anything, this year or any year for that matter. He's just not a franchise QB.

I would like the Defense to be addressed, and heavily in the first 2 rounds of the draft, but, if Nix can move up into the 2nd round with a reasonable trade without giving up our original 1st and 2nd rd picks, I'm all for it.

 

Nope, we'll get Luck next year. Ponder we'll be a good back up though, maybe...

I would love Luck next year. Would be the smart move to wait for him as opposed to throwing away an early round pick on someone else.

[4BillsintheBurgh]

I think folks are making a bad football judgment when they read into the skills on paper of a rookie QB that he is a Gailey type. This is simply wrong because the Gailey type has always been a vet (and usually a declared failed vet at that).

Well, that was a lot to digest. I will just say a couple things:

 

I don't believe Gailey will have any problem developing a qb. Kordell was basically a rookie when Gailey was working with him in Pittsburgh, drafted in 95 and Gailey there in 96-97. Chan was able to have Kordell exceed the talent he had.

 

I am not longing for the next Jim Kelly. I realize that in order to get to Super Bowl this team needs a qb who is better than Fitz. In comments OBD always mentions with regards to him is getting us to the playoffs, not about the Super Bowl.

 

I am saying IF there is a franchise qb at #3, how can you not take him? Really?

 

What has any of those qb's listed done when not under Chan? I don't know much about the chan/bulger time, but the rest of them all had some of their best years under chan. I don't see how you don't think chan could take a rookie qb and allow him to excel.

[mattsox]

I am happy to see a QB situation discussed that doesn't include the #3 overall pick.

 

Cam Newton would be a HUGE mistake at the 3rd overall. I have no confidence that kid can come in and do anything, this year or any year for that matter. He's just not a franchise QB.

I would like the Defense to be addressed, and heavily in the first 2 rounds of the draft, but, if Nix can move up into the 2nd round with a reasonable trade without giving up our original 1st and 2nd rd picks, I'm all for it.

 

 

I would love Luck next year. Would be the smart move to wait for him as opposed to throwing away an early round pick on someone else.

 

Yeah. He's the only QB I'd mortgage my future on.

[Rockinon]

I'm pretty certain we will not be drafting a QB with the #3 pick. The defense is by far the weakest side of the ball and that will be the focus. We may pickup Keapernick(did I spell that right?).