Truth about Fitz comp % and his accuracy

[Alphadawg7]

I don't belive Fitz is the second coming of Joe Montana, but he did a serviceable job this year. I would love it if the Bills had a sure thing QB sitting on the bench getting ready to start his long HOF career. They don't have that person yet. I do believe if you are drafting at 3 you better grab a sure thing blue chip player. I don't want a reach, project, questionable character type player.

 

My point for this reply was, that you say you didn't start this thread to bash him, and yet you talk about Int's that didn't happen due to penalties, or drops. I'm pretty sure other Qb's had the same thing happen. You take all the stats and list them as they are the only truth. At that point the one stat that you want to elaborate on is the one that would have him throw more int's. Be honest. It's like Fox News saying they don't lean to the right or CNN saying they don't lean to the left.

 

My gut instinct is that he will not be a consistent top 10 Qb in the league. I also think he can get you deep if you have good players around him(see Sanchez). If a Qb is there at some point and is higher on your draft board then another position then take him. He is a Qb that will fill the role until we find the real one.

 

That stat is fact, he is tied for 9th in the league for INT's yet only played 13 games. And its also a fact he threw a lot of other would be INT's...not tipped balls...but balls right directly into the hands of the defender who flat out dropped it. I mean, he had 3 in KC alone. Those are facts, and while it is true that all QB's have this happen, its worth noting that he got fortunate an awful lot of times in 13 games with these drops that he threw right to the defender. Again, I am not counting tipped passes (either by our own guys or the D Line), just passes he delivered directly to the defense that failed to complete the easy catch.

 

Talking about the facts is just that...a discussion of facts. There is a difference of bashing a guy and being critical of the performance delivered on the field. I won't bash Fitz because I completely appreciate and respect how he plays the game. That being said, that doesn't aboslve him from criticism about his play.

 

Same goes for Stevie. I was high on him when we drafted him, I was high on his potential last year, I was high on him coming into this season. I actually was not surprised by his break out this year. I was surprised by his dropsies. I have been equally critical of him this year despite liking the kid. Too many times he had an opportunity to make a play that we needed and didn't, including defending a couple of Fitz's INT's this year. IMO, he is no where near a #1 option right now and was the benefit of the extra attention Lee got. In fact, most people dont even realize this, but SJ only had 3 games this year over 70 yards recieving. Not exactly #1 material when you add that in with his mental lapses this year. I still like the kid, am high on his potential, but I think the jury is still out on whether or not he can develop into a true #1 at this point.

[bowery4]

Funny. TO dropped 8-9 passes a year and everyone crucified him for it.

 

Welker had 86 receptions, which is the same number as Johnson and Marshall. Wayne had 111 receptions. Even Stevie had 82 receptions. Mike Williams however had just 65 receptions. Welker had a bad year when it came to dropping passes.

 

As for the argument, Fitz didn't have an entire off-season, training camp, and pre-season with most of his receivers. And you also have to account for the fact that through attrition, the Bills' WR corp ended-up consisting of a 3rd year 7th rounder and 3 UDFA WR's. Many of who likely ran the wrong routes at times. Then there's the issue of O-line protection. Brady didn't look so accurate against the Giants in that SB loss, did he?

 

That being said, there's no reason Fitz can't improve his accuracy. And I expect them to address the RT spot (and hopefully this time, with a good player). While he'll go into training camp and pre-season as the clear-cut #1. Is the the long-term answer? Probably not. But he's the best we got until we get better.

 

Good post.

[Dr. Trooth]

But, but, but... how can that be? The Bills have Steve Johnson. Hasn't he suplanted Lee Evans as the Bills #1 receiver?

 

In fairness to Fitz, it was...

 

1) his first season in the offense

2) his first real shot as a #1, and thus, 13 starts in a season, the most playing time he's ever seen.

3) He has no protection from his blind side or right side

4) He had two deep threats. When Roscoe went down, that was probably the single most reason the offense went south. When Lee went down for the last 3, the hunt was over.

5) He doesn't have a receiving threat at TE

 

Fitz may or may not be the answer at QB. Next season the bar is raised real high for Fitz. We'll have a pretty good indication in the first five games.

 

I still don't know why many fans seem to think the offense is almost "there". The Bills ranked 24th... it's not close... and we still don't have that explosive player at RB.

 

I remember when JP had his 19/14 & 62% comp. season in 06. Fans thought he had turned it up a notch and was on his way to stardom. Well, Fitz season was pretty damn good by Bills standards over the past decade. But, if you can't get your completion avg. above 60% and QB rating above 90, then you ain't gonna crack the top 15. If you don't crack at least the top 15, you're just there til someone replaces you.

[Cadidliac]

To me this borderlines on crusading.....

 

I cannot think of one poster on this board that doesnt think Fitz has accuracy issues.....even his biggest supporters will admist that the ball gets away from him here and there.....

 

A few things

 

- When people B word about Fitz interceptions......well keep in mind that a. He has to force the ball to keep that chain moving because our running game wasn't anything to write home about and b. Lets keep in mind what he had to work with.....rookie wideouts, 7th rounders, no tight end

 

- Maybe if we could RUN THE BALL a little better and force defenses to change the way they defend us a little bit...then fitz actually has more room to throw. Maybe if we improve our O line and he doesnt have to get rid of it on a two potato count he might be able to step into a throw thus making him more accurate

 

- People want to B word about the outcome without looking at the causes

 

- Maybe if Fitz didnt feel he had to create points on each and every drive because our defense cant stop anybody he would have to take so many chances

 

- Maybe if he had a sure handed TE sure handed safety valve on the field his percentage goes up

 

FITZ IS THE LEAST OF OUR PROBLEMS

Amen. Now I guess I don't have to add my 2 cents. I will anyways because I am sick of the Fitz bashers. Fitz IS the least of the Bills problems. Anyone who bitches about Fitz, I would ask...Would you rather of had Edwards in there than Fitz?? The answer is NO! I will save any scrutiny of Fitz until after the 2011 season.

[San-O]

It was much more interesting to watch the team with a QB who wasn't afraid to actually THROW the ball, however

the real offensive production from 2009 to 2010 was about the same.

 

 

2009 ranked 30 in yards / game.

2010 ranked 25 in yards / game

 

2009 ranked 28 in poinst / game.

2010 ranked 28 in points / game.

[JDHILL]

This was in another thread, but since it keeps coming up in multiple threads I felt it deserved a seperate topic to finally dispell this myth that Fitz's completion % was so low because of dropped passes in comparison to other teams. Here are the real facts based on the dropped pass stats that have been compiled for this season.

 

1. Buffalo was 17th in the NFL in dropped passes.

2. Out of the 16 teams with MORE dropped passes than the Bills, 13 of them had QB's with a higher completion percentage than Fitz

3. Fitz ranks 27th in the league in completion % this year only above Kerry Collins, Sanchez, Claussen, and Derek Anderson.

4. 12 of those 13 QB's with MORE drops and a higher completion % still completed over 60% of their passes with only Hasselbeck under 60% at 59.9%...

5. Fitz completed a lowly 57.8%

6. Bonus fact: He is tied for 9th most INT's this year yet only played in 13 games and got bailed out on many more INT's through unrelated penalties or drops on non-tipped balls that were thrown directly into the hands of the defenders.

 

Someone started a thread comparing Fitz to the "Big 3", so lets look at the big 3:

 

1. Indy had the MOST drops and yet the 2nd highest completion % in the league was Manning at 66.3%

2. Saints were 7th in drops and yet Brees led the league in completion % at 68.1%

3. NE is 4th in the league in most drops and yet Brady is 4th in the league at 65.9%

 

So can this excuse for Fitz's accuracy issue be finally put to rest and just realize he isnt very accurate? 13 QB's had more drops than Fitz and yet still managed to complete over 60% of their passes (hasselbeck actually was 59.9% as only exception, still 2% higher than Fitz). Fitz's completion % is low because he isnt a very accurate QB, never has been ever in his entire NFL career...

 

This wasnt to bash him, but to be honest about what he is versus what he isnt. I love his passion, guts, and grit and he is light years better than Trent ever was...but that doesnt change that he just isnt that accurate and not nearly accurate enough to be a consistently succesful starter in this league.

 

Does that also take into account balls that were tipped into the air by the receiver and then intercepted or times that he absolutely had to be in passing situation b/c of down and distance or score of the game? or times that he intentionally through the ball out of bounds to avoid a sack. Of course if he would have ate the ball and not thrown the incompletion we would be complaining b/c he was sacked. OR he could have dumped the ball off for 2 yards instead of taking off an running for 5 to increase that completion percentage. Better yet, let's have him worry so much about throwing the interception that he never takes a shot down field. Let's face it Fitz is a glorified back up b/c we all know enough about football through stats to know that he can't get any better and won't be any better next year. It's not like any of his receivers were hurt or anything either. I'm sure that your stats man counted the number of balls that were reachable and could have been caught too as well balls dropped. I once heard that coaches did that too. Finally, I am completely positive that the #1 draft pick that you want the Bills to draft will start, understand all of the nuances of Gailey's offense, be able to read defenses and audible, throw 20 td's and 5 picks, have a 63.78999999 completion percentage and have the respect of the team and command the huddle.

[JESSEFEFFER]

The completion % is the last thing I'd look at. It's affected by parameters that are not the same from team to team, the two biggest being weather and protection. Peyton Manning has the BEST circumstances of these two factors. Would anyone not concede that Fitzpatrick dealt with one of the worst combinations of these two factors?

 

Fitzpatrick was good at avoiding sacks and making 3rd and long conversions both of which hurt completion %. He demonstrated a package of skills that allowed him to deal with and often beat pressure. I think it is the single most important skillset for a QB to have and QB passer rating does not properly quantify it.

 

Failing to deal with pressure will chase QBs from the NFL (Culpepper, Bledsoe, Losman, Edwards, George, Everett, etc.) while beating it will define success and is my best definition of "it." It's a package of arm, feet, brains, and recognition/reaction that allows a QB to best utilize the time and space he has available. I think Fitzpatrick showed that he has an effective combination of these skills and abilities which means he can get better. He is QB passer rating plus.

Edited January 8, 2011 by JESSEFEFFER

[Coach Tuesday]

Give him one more year under Gailey and then we can evaluate. If you watched the games carefully this year, you'd have noticed that Fitz's throwing motion and grip seemed to change (and improve) from preseason through the season. It's clear that they were working with him closely to improve his throwing style (and accuracy). If after another year in this offense his accuracy % doesn't go up closer to 60%, then I agree with the premise. But it's too premature right now.

[akm0404]

Two points;

 

1. The Bills actually had an average rushing attack. The notion that Fitz would be way better if we didn't have an abysmal running game is false. We had a decent - well, for The Bills - running game (18th) and a bad passing game (24th).

 

2. Claiming that Fitz played in more adverse weather conditions this year than other quarterbacks is false. This year was a splendid year for weather, relatively speaking. Tom Brady, for instance, played in a larger number of weather affected games. Just saying.

Edited January 8, 2011 by akm0404

[Bob in STL]

To me this borderlines on crusading.....

 

I cannot think of one poster on this board that doesnt think Fitz has accuracy issues.....even his biggest supporters will admist that the ball gets away from him here and there.....

 

A few things

 

- When people B word about Fitz interceptions......well keep in mind that a. He has to force the ball to keep that chain moving because our running game wasn't anything to write home about and b. Lets keep in mind what he had to work with.....rookie wideouts, 7th rounders, no tight end

 

- Maybe if we could RUN THE BALL a little better and force defenses to change the way they defend us a little bit...then fitz actually has more room to throw. Maybe if we improve our O line and he doesnt have to get rid of it on a two potato count he might be able to step into a throw thus making him more accurate

 

- People want to B word about the outcome without looking at the causes

 

- Maybe if Fitz didnt feel he had to create points on each and every drive because our defense cant stop anybody he would have to take so many chances

 

- Maybe if he had a sure handed TE sure handed safety valve on the field his percentage goes up

 

FITZ IS THE LEAST OF OUR PROBLEMS

 

 

These are all valid points. Everyone knows Fitz is not as accurate as the top QBs. You don't need to analyze stats to see that. His is also constantly under pressure and threw to a very young corp of receivers. By the last 3 or 4 games he had very little to work with.

 

He played better in mid season when we had Evans and Roscoe and Stevie. That should not surprise anyone.

Edited January 8, 2011 by Bob in STL

[Hapless Bills Fan]

To me this borderlines on crusading.....

 

I cannot think of one poster on this board that doesnt think Fitz has accuracy issues.....even his biggest supporters will admist that the ball gets away from him here and there.....

 

A few things

 

- When people B word about Fitz interceptions......well keep in mind that a. He has to force the ball to keep that chain moving because our running game wasn't anything to write home about and b. Lets keep in mind what he had to work with.....rookie wideouts, 7th rounders, no tight end

 

- Maybe if we could RUN THE BALL a little better and force defenses to change the way they defend us a little bit...then fitz actually has more room to throw. Maybe if we improve our O line and he doesnt have to get rid of it on a two potato count he might be able to step into a throw thus making him more accurate

 

- People want to B word about the outcome without looking at the causes

 

- Maybe if Fitz didnt feel he had to create points on each and every drive because our defense cant stop anybody he would have to take so many chances

 

- Maybe if he had a sure handed TE sure handed safety valve on the field his percentage goes up

 

FITZ IS THE LEAST OF OUR PROBLEMS

 

What he said

 

The point I keep coming back to is that Chan, who must see more of Fitzpatrick than anyone, was quoted as saying a QB needs two things (I think it was ability to read the D/adjust) and accuracy, and Fitz has both.

 

So more to the point than you and I agreeing, I'm seeing it as Chan believes there is an underlying cause to Fitz apparent accuracy issues that isn't intrinsic to Fitz brain, arm or throwing mechanics, which frankly when I see those Bull Durham "throw at the mascot WTF?" things I wondered about.

 

I'll be interested to see how Fitz develops this year. I only hope we don't dilute training camp with "QB competition Take 2" or draft a hotshot QB with the notion of immediately starting him.

[TPS]

This was in another thread, but since it keeps coming up in multiple threads I felt it deserved a seperate topic to finally dispell this myth that Fitz's completion % was so low because of dropped passes in comparison to other teams. Here are the real facts based on the dropped pass stats that have been compiled for this season.

 

1. Buffalo was 17th in the NFL in dropped passes.

2. Out of the 16 teams with MORE dropped passes than the Bills, 13 of them had QB's with a higher completion percentage than Fitz

3. Fitz ranks 27th in the league in completion % this year only above Kerry Collins, Sanchez, Claussen, and Derek Anderson.

4. 12 of those 13 QB's with MORE drops and a higher completion % still completed over 60% of their passes with only Hasselbeck under 60% at 59.9%...

5. Fitz completed a lowly 57.8%

6. Bonus fact: He is tied for 9th most INT's this year yet only played in 13 games and got bailed out on many more INT's through unrelated penalties or drops on non-tipped balls that were thrown directly into the hands of the defenders.

 

Someone started a thread comparing Fitz to the "Big 3", so lets look at the big 3:

 

1. Indy had the MOST drops and yet the 2nd highest completion % in the league was Manning at 66.3%

2. Saints were 7th in drops and yet Brees led the league in completion % at 68.1%

3. NE is 4th in the league in most drops and yet Brady is 4th in the league at 65.9%

 

So can this excuse for Fitz's accuracy issue be finally put to rest and just realize he isnt very accurate? 13 QB's had more drops than Fitz and yet still managed to complete over 60% of their passes (hasselbeck actually was 59.9% as only exception, still 2% higher than Fitz). Fitz's completion % is low because he isnt a very accurate QB, never has been ever in his entire NFL career...

 

This wasnt to bash him, but to be honest about what he is versus what he isnt. I love his passion, guts, and grit and he is light years better than Trent ever was...but that doesnt change that he just isnt that accurate and not nearly accurate enough to be a consistently succesful starter in this league.

It would be interesting to see if you can adjust for poor conditions--the Detroit and Cleveland games were pretty miserable for throwing the ball.

[OldTimer1960]

I am in the camp that don't believe that Fitzpatrick is a top-level starting QB, but I also

think that he can be pretty good. I acknowledge that he doesn't have the strongest arm and

that some of his passes are flat awful, but there is more to playing QB in the NFL than arm

strenght and pretty passes. He is very good at directing the offense, getting the OL blocking

scheme set, checking out of bad plays, moving in the pocket and making some plays on

the run.

 

I don't know if he can continue to improve - I don't think he is that old, but he might have

reached the limit of his physical skills - I don't know.

 

On the flip-side, he played behind a weak to awful OL which he made look considerably better

than it is with his movement skills, running and quick decision making. Just look how much

worse the OL looked with Brohm at QB.

 

He played with maybe the weakest (at least the least experienced) WR group in the league.

Evans is a very good NFL WR who is consistently double covered, but for all of Stevie

Johnson's success this year I don't think other teams feared him. With Parrish out and

then Evans too, Fitzpatrick had only Johnson (7th round pick), David Nelson, Naaman Roosevelt,

Donald Jones and Paul Hubbard (all undrafted) to throw to.

 

He was also handicapped by having no decent TE receiving threat. Other QBs routinely have

2, 3 or 4 completions a game to a TE who also opens the field up for other receivers. The

Bills don't have any such weapon.

 

I agree that it would be great to draft a true "franchise" QB that could be at the level of

Manning, Brady, Brees and Rivers, BUT I also know that just drafting one in the first round

doesn't guarantee that the QB will develop to that level. There are as many or more misses

as their are hits when drafting QBs high. I REALLY hope that if the Bills take a QB in round

1 this year that they know what they are doing. I am not an NFL scout, but I've watched a

lot of football over 50 years and I've seen a lot of good college QBs fail in the NFL. I

wasn't that impressed with what I saw of Ryan Mallett and while it is hard not to be impressed

with Cam Newton's play at Auburn the fact is that he has done it only one year, has relied

more on running than passing (which won't translate as successfully to the NFL) and hasn't

had to learn to read a defense.

 

Anyway, while it would be wonderful to be able to pick the next Manning or Brady this year,

I could easily live with trying to improve the D and OL and watch Fitzpatrick again next

year. If I were convinced that Mallett, Newton, Gabbert or someone else was the next top

level NFL QB, I would certainly advocate using the #3 pick on them - BUT they HAVE to be

damn sure...

[Nanker]

Fitz has the 10th best sack percentage in the NFL at 5.2%.

He was sacked 24 times.

Seems like that was Edwards' total for a single game.

Maybe he knows enough to throw the ball away and not take a drive-killing sack after drive-killing sack that makes his overall completion percentage lower.

He's got more Moxie than Edwards.

He's got more football intelligence than Holcomb, Brohm and Losman put together.

He's the starting QB on The Buffalo Bills. Deal with it.

[Lenigmusx]

Look with your eyes Fitz raises the level of play of his team. Yes his completion percentage is concerning BUT if you put better talent around him I think that his completion percentage will increase.

 

Fitz's completion percentage could be improved to above 60 with an improved O-line, A better D that doesn't make his play one dimensional by playing from behind all the time, a better tightend to throw to, and a more consistent running game.

 

When you are consitantly playing from behind all the time you have to throw deep and those throws are much less accurate. When you are up or close you make safer throws that are higher in completion percentage. Also the Bills offense lacking a tightend might factor into it because tightends provide a much safer outlet for QB's to throw to.

 

Also the inconsistent play of the O-line lowers the play of any QB. All in all I think that Fitz could be a 60%+ completion percentage QB with a better supporting cast.

I will go one step further. Fitz's completion percentage is low because he attempts lower percetage, high risk throws more often. I think with fair to good production from a tight end and a few more screen plays his Comp. percentage would be markedly improved. The Big 3 and most of the other Quarterbacks in question were working with a lead far more often than Fitz was. I would be curious to see the statistics of all the NFL QB's When playing with a lead (Low risk ball control) as compared to when playing from behind (High risk, High Reward)"Flingin it". I would bet that we would find Fitz's stats to be comparable to the best in the league when playing from behind TD %, Long Plays completed, 3rd and Long completion %. These stats are far more interesting because they would show the things like composure, poise, success under pressure. These are the qualities that make a QB great. I would bet that fitz played from behind more than any other QB with the number of touchdown passes he has. Fitz has poise, no QB since drew Bledsoe(His first season with us)Has had the type of poise the Fitz has.

[Ray]

I think the issue of Fitz' accuracy is a bit misguided. Yes, he throws some awful footballs at times. But it was stated last year that because of his size, he throws to spots & trusts his receivers will get there even if he can't fully see the read. Because of this, I have little doubt he looks terrible at times in practice & camp.

 

However, we play in Buffalo. Conditions will always hurt your completion %. It's why I have believed for a long time that Brady was the better player of Manning, who plays at least 8 games in dome. Only 4 times out of 11 seasons in his HOF career did Kelly complete 60% of his passes. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KellJi00.htm

Bledsoe only did it once in 3 seasons (and that was 61.5%). http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BledDr00.htm

 

Buffalo's conditions plays havoc on qbs.

You are absolutely correct. Any QB that comes here to play states that they admire what Jim Kelly did as the winds make it very difficult to play and throw. Tom Brady just played here and he is the most accurate QB in the game yet completed on 55% of his passes against the worst defense in the league or one of the top 5 worst defenses in the league.

That does impact completion percentages. That said, Fitz can certainly do better with his accuracy but he is average to a little above average in NFL QBs in terms of accuracy. He made throws this year with literally an inch or so to spare (Nelson vs Miami TD, Evans vs Baltimore TD). So to say he is not accurate is pretty ridiculous. He can be inconsistent and needs improvement on that more than anything.

[Vinny4sum]

My guess is Fitzs also leads the NFL in missing WRs of curls and come back routes by 3+ yards.

 

I agree..Fitz throws a ball that at times seems difficult to catch...that is part of the difference between him and Brady or Manning. Not only difficult to catch, but in bad locations, i.e. slighlty behind a receiver on a cross or high on a curl.

 

But, I still think he has earned the opportunity to play.

Edited January 8, 2011 by Vinny4sum

[Lenigmusx]

The completion % is the last thing I'd look at. It's affected by parameters that are not the same from team to team, the two biggest being weather and protection. Peyton Manning has the BEST circumstances of these two factors. Would anyone not concede that Fitzpatrick dealt with one of the worst combinations of these two factors?

 

Fitzpatrick was good at avoiding sacks and making 3rd and long conversions both of which hurt completion %. He demonstrated a package of skills that allowed him to deal with and often beat pressure. I think it is the single most important skillset for a QB to have and QB passer rating does not properly quantify it.

 

Failing to deal with pressure will chase QBs from the NFL (Culpepper, Bledsoe, Losman, Edwards, George, Everett, etc.) while beating it will define success and is my best definition of "it." It's a package of arm, feet, brains, and recognition/reaction that allows a QB to best utilize the time and space he has available. I think Fitzpatrick showed that he has an effective combination of these skills and abilities which means he can get better. He is QB passer rating plus.

(Ie..SEE Doug Flutie)

[K Gun Special]

Amen. Now I guess I don't have to add my 2 cents. I will anyways because I am sick of the Fitz bashers. Fitz IS the least of the Bills problems. Anyone who bitches about Fitz, I would ask...Would you rather of had Edwards in there than Fitz?? The answer is NO! I will save any scrutiny of Fitz until after the 2011 season.

 

 

Really? the saints and colts had worse running games than the Bills, in fact the Bills had a pretty avg running game this year, avg per game is right in the middle

 

 

You are really just looking for excuses for fitz if you are gonna blame everything around him.

 

This guy wasnt that good in college, wasnt that good before coming to the Bills and this year he was near the bottom of the league in almost every QB stat.

 

In a QB league i dont know how you can say a QB with terrible production is the least of our worries.

 

BTW, many QBs did more this year with the same amount of talent.

[McBeane]

TBD- where no matter what personnel we have, they are never good enough.

Edited January 8, 2011 by SpillerTime21