Truth about Fitz comp % and his accuracy

[Alphadawg7]

That sound you hear is Alphadog's fingernails scraping the bottom of the barrel attempting to come up with a counter argument. Every close game ever played could have turned around if the QB had completed one more pass in a crucial moment. This is a laughable argument.

 

You have lost whatever scraps of credibility you have so far retained with this post.

 

LOL...what counter argument...I am not the one scrapping the bottom of the barrel to come up with any and every kind of excuse to validate his struggles with accuracy.

[Alphadawg7]

It's puzzling to me how people who say "facts are facts" are often so very selective in which facts they choose to examine and which facts they choose to

His QB rating improved 12 points between two previous years, and this year, from 70% to 82%. This improvement reflects the following: his TD% went up more than 1%, his INT% went down 1%. His accuracy also improved 2% from last year, from 56% to 58%. He had a previous year where his completion percentage was higher, 59% in CIN under a more functional offensive system than last year in B'lo IMHO.

 

Coaches have very little regard for QB rating in case you were not aware. It carries very little weight as its a fundamentally flawed rating system and an unreliable measure of a QB's effectiveness. The 3 most important stats coaches look at for determining a quarterbacks effectiveness are completion %, yards per attempt, and 3rd down efficiency. None of those 3 are areas where Fitz has been strong in any part of his career.

 

I get why people are defending him, because I like him too. Still, that doesnt change the fact that he struggles with accuraccy.

 

As far as his TD improvement went...lets be honest, he got 8 of those TD's in 2 games (one of which he stunk in until both safeties got knocked out).

 

Lets be honest, Fitz only had solid or good games against:

Balt, Cincy, Pit, and Miami and yet his 2 straignt INT's in Balt gave away our lead for good and forced us to play catch up all game, and he got bailed out in Cincy when the 2 starting safeties got hurt because he was awful that game prior to that(not to mention how he threw 3 INT's in his first 3 drives, but one was reversed because of roughing the passer) and his Miami game was just ok. Pitt was a good game for him as he came up big finally with game on the line but SJ dropped it.

 

Lets look at the rest of his games:

NE - was ok considering he just gotten the job, but struggled to move the ball a lot in that game, got a garbage time TD at end.

NYJ - was terrible all game, got a garbage time TD at end.

JAC - started strong, but disappeared in the 2nd half until he got a garbage time TD with one min left in the game.

KC - was awful all game with the exception of a single drive. Throws INT when we are driving for win in regulation then goes on to complete just 33% of his passes in OT including missing a wide open Spiller to win game BEFORE we missed the long kick.

CHI - Struggled most of the game, threw game ending INT again.

DET - Struggled most of the game to move the ball

MIN - Was awful again this game

CLE - Another bad game

NE - Horrendous game

 

So while I get people love him, heck I love the way he plays too, but the reality of how well he played this season is getting grossly exaggerated. I get it, because next to Trent he is tremendous, but compared to good NFL QB's he is bottom half of the league and maybe even bottom 3rd.

 

Funny thing is, people talk about how he was thrown into the lineup and thats why he stuggled...well for your information:

1. He had at least 2 TD's in his firt 3 games, yet only accomplished this 3 more times in the next 10.

2. His 3 best comp % games all occured in his first 4 starts.

3. He threw 11 of his TD's in his first 4 games and only managed 12 over his next 9 games (4 of which came in one game)

4. In his first 3 starts he had only one game with a turnover. He would only have on game the rest of the year without a turnover after that.

 

So, it seems he started a lot better than he finished, so that theory doesnt excatly hold water either. Sorry

Edited January 11, 2011 by Alphadawg7

[reddogblitz]

Uhh, no. He's on a bad team and he's been very good. He is in the top 10 Bills QB seasons of all time in yards and TDs in spite of his lack of TE and crappy line and suspect WRs and zip for running game.

He also threw the most TD passes in a season since 2002 when Blue Dredslow threw 24.

[Fan in Chicago]

He also threw the most TD passes in a season since 2002 when Blue Dredslow threw 24.

Let me state some facts:

1. Fitz threw for 23 TDs this season which was his best. 23<24

2. If Fitz had started all 16 games, he would have had a prorate 28 TDs HOWEVER he could have played those three games as he did the Pats* second game. Which means he would have thrown for zero TDs in those three games even if he started. So his total for the season would have been 23+0 =23. Again, 23<24

 

We all know Bledsoe sucked so Fitz sucks more. Sorry.

[reddogblitz]

Let me state some facts:

1. Fitz threw for 23 TDs this season which was his best. 23<24

2. If Fitz had started all 16 games, he would have had a prorate 28 TDs HOWEVER he could have played those three games as he did the Pats* second game. Which means he would have thrown for zero TDs in those three games even if he started. So his total for the season would have been 23+0 =23. Again, 23<24

 

We all know Bledsoe sucked so Fitz sucks more. Sorry.

From dictionary.com:

 

since: continuously from or counting from: It has been warm since noon.

fact: a truth known by actual experience or observation; something known to be true: Scientists gather facts about plant growth.

 

I said he'd thrown the most TDs since Bledsoe threw 24 in 2002. That's a fact.

 

Your projection on what Fitz may or may not have done if he had started 16 games is not a fact.

Edited January 11, 2011 by reddogblitz

[Buffalo Barbarian]

This wasnt to bash him, but to be honest about what he is versus what he isnt. I love his passion, guts, and grit and he is light years better than Trent ever was...but that doesnt change that he just isnt that accurate and not nearly accurate enough to be a consistently succesful starter in this league.

[Arkady Renko]

Its puzzling how anyone can look at this as logical simply because this is also true for the other 26 QB's who complete a higher percentage of passes than Fitz. So if you are going to say he can complete another .56 passes a game to get to 60%, then you have to give the other 26 Quarterbacks that have a better completion the same assumption and the gap between Fitz and them remain. Not to mention, 60% is below average in todays NFL still.

 

1. He has never completed at least 60% at any point in his 7 year NFL career.

2. When evaluating a QB's effectiveness, the 3 stats a coach evaluates the most are completion %, 3rd Down efficiency, and yards per attempt...none of which are Fitz's better areas.

 

Doesn't Ryan Fitzpatrick have one of the best 3rd down passer ratings in the league?

 

3rd-down passer rating

117.4 - Tom Brady

113.9 - Ben Roethlisberger

106.1 - Michael Vick

101.9 - Matt Ryan

100.0 - Drew Brees

96.2 - Philip Rivers

95.0 - Aaron Rodgers

93.2 - Ryan Fitzpatrick

91.8 - Matt Cassel

90.9 - Josh Freeman

85.9 - Matt Schaub

85.0 - Joe Flacco

84.9 - Jason Campbell

81.8 - David Garrard

79.1 - Sam Bradford

76.9 - Matt Hasselbeck

76.8 - Jay Cutler

74.9 - Carson Palmer

71.7 - Peyton Manning

64.8 - Mark Sanchez

59.4 - Brett Favre

58.0 - Kyle Orton

55.8 - Donovan McNabb

55.4 - Eli Manning

[C.Biscuit97]

Doesn't Ryan Fitzpatrick have one of the best 3rd down passer ratings in the league?

 

3rd-down passer rating

117.4 - Tom Brady

113.9 - Ben Roethlisberger

106.1 - Michael Vick

101.9 - Matt Ryan

100.0 - Drew Brees

96.2 - Philip Rivers

95.0 - Aaron Rodgers

93.2 - Ryan Fitzpatrick

91.8 - Matt Cassel

90.9 - Josh Freeman

85.9 - Matt Schaub

85.0 - Joe Flacco

84.9 - Jason Campbell

81.8 - David Garrard

79.1 - Sam Bradford

76.9 - Matt Hasselbeck

76.8 - Jay Cutler

74.9 - Carson Palmer

71.7 - Peyton Manning

64.8 - Mark Sanchez

59.4 - Brett Favre

58.0 - Kyle Orton

55.8 - Donovan McNabb

55.4 - Eli Manning

 

 

Quiet. Who cares about converting 3rd downs or being successful in the red zone? Fitz doesn't complete dump off bases like Edwards and have 60+ completion %. That's all that's important.

 

P.S. IIRC, you were one of the main people killing Trent Edwards. Congrats, you were right. However, it's jsut funny that you are knocking Fitz for one of the stats Edwards truly excelled in. It's a bit backwards.

Edited January 12, 2011 by C.Biscuit97

[Dr. K]

Coaches have very little regard for QB rating in case you were not aware. It carries very little weight as its a fundamentally flawed rating system and an unreliable measure of a QB's effectiveness. The 3 most important stats coaches look at for determining a quarterbacks effectiveness are completion %, yards per attempt, and 3rd down efficiency. None of those 3 are areas where Fitz has been strong in any part of his career.

 

 

 

So completion percentage, yards per attempt, and 3rd down conversions are the golden stats for judging QB's?

 

Here's a QB A in 2008: He completed 65.5% of his passes (vs. Fitz's 57.8 this year), and averaged 7.2 yards per attempt (vs. Fitz's 6.8 yds per attempt). I don't have available their 3rd down percentages.

 

By your measure (if that's what really matters to coaches, as you say), you would want QB A over Fitz every day of the week, right?

 

QB A = Trent Edwards.

 

Your obsession with completion percentage (when Fitz could go over 60% next season by completing 10 more passes than he did this year) is distorted. If Fitz checked down on every sedon pass, his completion percentage would go over 60% easily. That would not make him a better QB.

 

I really don't know what the point of this argument is any more. You want somebody else at QB? You want the Bills to draft a QB in the first round? WHO? I really can't figure out what you want.

 

So I'll leave it at that.

[Alphadawg7]

So completion percentage, yards per attempt, and 3rd down conversions are the golden stats for judging QB's?

 

Here's a QB A in 2008: He completed 65.5% of his passes (vs. Fitz's 57.8 this year), and averaged 7.2 yards per attempt (vs. Fitz's 6.8 yds per attempt). I don't have available their 3rd down percentages.

 

By your measure (if that's what really matters to coaches, as you say), you would want QB A over Fitz every day of the week, right?

 

QB A = Trent Edwards.

 

Your obsession with completion percentage (when Fitz could go over 60% next season by completing 10 more passes than he did this year) is distorted. If Fitz checked down on every sedon pass, his completion percentage would go over 60% easily. That would not make him a better QB.

 

I really don't know what the point of this argument is any more. You want somebody else at QB? You want the Bills to draft a QB in the first round? WHO? I really can't figure out what you want.

 

So I'll leave it at that.

 

You can mock it all you want...you can find an exception for every rule, guideline, standard, common practice, thought, philosophy, mindless thought in every single thing in lifes existence. But, that doesnt change the fact that the 3 key areas most coaches put a lot of emphasis on when evaluating the effectiveness of a QB are those 3 areas. There are plenty of other things they evaluate and measure too...stats that you won't find tracked on ESPN.com, but those are always held in high regard.

[Alphadawg7]

Quiet. Who cares about converting 3rd downs or being successful in the red zone? Fitz doesn't complete dump off bases like Edwards and have 60+ completion %. That's all that's important.

 

P.S. IIRC, you were one of the main people killing Trent Edwards. Congrats, you were right. However, it's jsut funny that you are knocking Fitz for one of the stats Edwards truly excelled in. It's a bit backwards.

 

Come on man...you cant even compare this to that.

 

And if you go back and read what I wrote about Trent you will see the whole time I kept saying he is NOT an accurate passer and that his completion % is heavily skewed because all he does is dump off. Fitz on the other hand lives up to his completion % as you can see it in every game...his accuracy issues come in to play many times almost every time he steps on to the field. The guy even struggles with screen passes.

 

Thats the standard on TSW though...if you are honest about a beloved players short comings then you just "hate" the guy, are bashing him, or on some kind of "crusade". I mean its ridiculous on here some times as you can not even have an honest conversation about a player unless you are swinging on his nuts. Funny you mention Trent though...I took a lot of crap about Trent, and yet that didn't change what I was saying about his flaws that were dead on accurate, and I was saying that when we were 4-0, 5-1, 6-2, under Trent.

 

I dont bash Fitz...I love how he plays, think he was great for this team, think he is a good player to groom a young prospect behind, and is a good teammate. Still doesnt change his short comings and his resulting many more bad games than good ones thus far.

Edited January 12, 2011 by Alphadawg7

[Orton's Arm]

So completion percentage, yards per attempt, and 3rd down conversions are the golden stats for judging QB's?

 

Here's a QB A in 2008: He completed 65.5% of his passes (vs. Fitz's 57.8 this year), and averaged 7.2 yards per attempt (vs. Fitz's 6.8 yds per attempt). I don't have available their 3rd down percentages.

 

By your measure (if that's what really matters to coaches, as you say), you would want QB A over Fitz every day of the week, right?

 

QB A = Trent Edwards.

 

Your obsession with completion percentage (when Fitz could go over 60% next season by completing 10 more passes than he did this year) is distorted. If Fitz checked down on every sedon pass, his completion percentage would go over 60% easily. That would not make him a better QB.

 

I really don't know what the point of this argument is any more. You want somebody else at QB? You want the Bills to draft a QB in the first round? WHO? I really can't figure out what you want.

 

So I'll leave it at that.

I'll address your bolded comment. I realize you made the above comparison to show why you think completion percentage (and perhaps to a lesser degree yards per attempt) are not all-critical stats when determining a QB's performance. But the above-mentioned numbers could be seen in a different light.

 

Did Edwards in 2008 have a better offensive coordinator than Fitz did this year? No. Gailey is clearly better than any coordinator Edwards ever had (except for his first two games this season). Was Edwards' receiving corps better? No: Fitz has Stevie Johnson, Lee Evans, Nelson, etc. Edwards had Lee Evans and Josh Reed. What about offensive lines? There were a lot of games in 2008 where the OL would fail to pass protect much in the first half, do a so-so job in the third quarter, and come alive in the fourth quarter. That improvement in pass protection was why the Bills had the late game comebacks they did. There were times in 2010 when the Bills' OL played reasonably respectably--except at RT of course. While I'll grant that the 2008 line was probably better overall, and certainly more complete, the difference wasn't enough to offset the 2010 Bills' advantage in receiving corps and offensive coaching staff.

 

So why was Edwards able to attain 7.2 yards per attempt in 2008 while Fitz this season only had a yards per attempt of 6.8? Part of the answer is that 2008 was a good year for Edwards and he played above his usual level. Edwards' career average is 6.5 yards per attempt. But Edwards playing better than usual in 2008 is only part of the reason for Fitz's failure to equal his yards per attempt stat from that year.

 

A quarterback can always inflate his completion percentage by dumping the ball off. Conversely, there's very little he can do to inflate his yards per attempt stat. One of the things he can do is pile up lots of yards in garbage time. But the evidence AlphaDawg presented suggests that Fitz did a significant amount of stat-inflating in garbage time himself during 2010. So we shouldn't be quick to assume that Edwards did more (or even an equal amount of) stat-inflating through garbage time in 2008.

 

Another way of inflating the yards per attempt stat is by doing things that might work for a few games--or even an entire season--but that will stop working once defenses catch onto them. For example, Losman's average yards per attempt stat from 2006 looked pretty good in large part because of all the long bombs he threw to Lee Evans. But then defenses figured out that when you defend against Losman, the first thing you do is take away the long bomb. After that realization sunk in, defenses changed, and Losman's yards per attempt stat plummeted for the 2007 season.

 

It's worth noting here that the New England defense did a much better job against Fitz the second time it faced him in 2010 than it had during the first time. More generally, Fitz's good games seemed to come in the first half of the season; while the second half seemed to contain mostly mediocre or disappointing performances. We'll see how Fitz does next season. But in the meantime, I suggest a strong level of caution about accepting the proposition that Fitz's successes early in 2010 represent something sustainable.

 

What we're left with is the realization that, in the all-important yards-per-attempt stat, Fitzpatrick of 2010 did less well than Edwards in 2008. Nor is there an easy way to explain away that statistical difference. No obvious explanation as to why Edwards' YPA overstates the quality of his play in 2008 or why Fitz's YPA understates his level of play in 2010. That should be an extremely disconcerting realization to any Bills fan who sees Fitz as the long-term answer at quarterback.

 

The reason for the above is a simple, if potentially unwelcome truth. Fitz is not an accurate quarterback. More specifically, he can be very accurate some of the time, but his accuracy is very far from consistent. Fans may be willing to forgive or overlook the drives that stalled because of those inaccurate passes, and the opportunities the Bills missed. But these things show up in the yards per attempt stat.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Coaches have very little regard for QB rating in case you were not aware. It carries very little weight as its a fundamentally flawed rating system and an unreliable measure of a QB's effectiveness. The 3 most important stats coaches look at for determining a quarterbacks effectiveness are completion %, yards per attempt, and 3rd down efficiency. None of those 3 are areas where Fitz has been strong in any part of his career.

 

I get why people are defending him, because I like him too. Still, that doesnt change the fact that he struggles with accuraccy.

 

What I see is when facts don't support your assertion, you ignore them or try to find a reason they don't matter.

You say QB's who have been in the league as long as Fitz and never eclipsed 60% completion percentage dont generally improve.

I offer examples - you ignore. You say Fitz isn't improving, I offer examples (including improvement completion %) - you say the examples don't matter.

 

QB rating includes completion percentage and yards per attempt as well as TD and INT. It would be kinda hard to improve QB rating significantly without improving either completion % or YPA or both. I pointed out Fitz completion percentage improved from the previous year. A similar improvement would put him over 60% next year. You ignore that.

 

Fine, let's look at your other examples.

Fitz is 9th in the league in % of 1st down conversions when passing on 3rd down. 3rd down conversions

 

Fitz' YPA have been improving the last 3 years. This year it was 6.8, which is 0.1 lower than Peyton Manning and 0.3 better than Matt Ryan. The trend projects to ~7.4 next year.

The value coaches have for "yards per attempt" depends on what offense they run. A successful QB in a Walsh WC-type offense will often have short YPA.

 

It's a fact Chan Gailey says Fitz has accuracy. He sees the games, film, and practices. My guess is he sees something he believes he can improve. Is he right? Dunno.

 

I look at Fitz game log for those three "coach valued" statistics you cite, and I see YPA and comp % cycling up and down in a fairly random pattern.

If there is a fall-off, that seems pretty predictable (esp this year) with a decimated OL and WR on a team with no quality depth.

 

You talk about Fitz "7 year career". Fact: he's only played significantly in 4 seasons and has only started 36 games (about the equivalent of going into his 3rd season).

 

I'd love a discussion that includes acknowledging points others make, maybe some discussion of what's important and when QB improve.

 

I kinda get the notion that's not part of the menu in this thread, so I may be leaving the restaurant.

[Fan in Chicago]

From dictionary.com:

 

since: continuously from or counting from: It has been warm since noon.

fact: a truth known by actual experience or observation; something known to be true: Scientists gather facts about plant growth.

 

I said he'd thrown the most TDs since Bledsoe threw 24 in 2002. That's a fact.

 

Your projection on what Fitz may or may not have done if he had started 16 games is not a fact.

Guess I can't carry off sarcasm very well.

[Alphadawg7]

What I see is when facts don't support your assertion, you ignore them or try to find a reason they don't matter.

You say QB's who have been in the league as long as Fitz and never eclipsed 60% completion percentage dont generally improve.

I offer examples - you ignore. You say Fitz isn't improving, I offer examples (including improvement completion %) - you say the examples don't matter.

 

QB rating includes completion percentage and yards per attempt as well as TD and INT. It would be kinda hard to improve QB rating significantly without improving either completion % or YPA or both. I pointed out Fitz completion percentage improved from the previous year. A similar improvement would put him over 60% next year. You ignore that.

 

Fine, let's look at your other examples.

Fitz is 9th in the league in % of 1st down conversions when passing on 3rd down. 3rd down conversions

 

Fitz' YPA have been improving the last 3 years. This year it was 6.8, which is 0.1 lower than Peyton Manning and 0.3 better than Matt Ryan. The trend projects to ~7.4 next year.

The value coaches have for "yards per attempt" depends on what offense they run. A successful QB in a Walsh WC-type offense will often have short YPA.

 

It's a fact Chan Gailey says Fitz has accuracy. He sees the games, film, and practices. My guess is he sees something he believes he can improve. Is he right? Dunno.

 

I look at Fitz game log for those three "coach valued" statistics you cite, and I see YPA and comp % cycling up and down in a fairly random pattern.

If there is a fall-off, that seems pretty predictable (esp this year) with a decimated OL and WR on a team with no quality depth.

 

You talk about Fitz "7 year career". Fact: he's only played significantly in 4 seasons and has only started 36 games (about the equivalent of going into his 3rd season).

 

I'd love a discussion that includes acknowledging points others make, maybe some discussion of what's important and when QB improve.

 

I kinda get the notion that's not part of the menu in this thread, so I may be leaving the restaurant.

 

I didnt ignore your examples...you can find exceptions to every rule. Here try this on: I could say that guys bagging groceries dont generally come into the NFL and become MVP and SB MVP by taking a last place team to the SB title. You then can argue back with an example of Kurt Warner and say its simply not true.

 

See the fundamental disconnect with you is that I said "generally" and you take that as some kind of law I am proclaming as if its impossible. I never said that, I said more often than not guys with as much accuracy issues as him who have been around as long as him dont generally all of a sudden become really accurate passers. Are the exceptions...of course, but its still not the norm.

 

Just like in the NBA, guys who have spent 5 years being terrible free throw shooters dont generally become good ones. Has it happened...yes...but its not the norm.

 

All this talk abot how he "only has the equivalent of 3 seaasons" is crap. Tim Tebow said it best when someone asked him this season if he was frustrated he wasnt playing...he said what are you talking about, I play every day in practice. Fitz has had plenty of opportunity in real game experience and practice to develop his accuracy, yet still struggles with it. So, pardon me if I feel its safe to assume that that its more likely that his accuracy issues are going to be something that is part of his game moving forward still.

[K Gun Special]

I didnt ignore your examples...you can find exceptions to every rule. Here try this on: I could say that guys bagging groceries dont generally come into the NFL and become MVP and SB MVP by taking a last place team to the SB title. You then can argue back with an example of Kurt Warner and say its simply not true.

 

See the fundamental disconnect with you is that I said "generally" and you take that as some kind of law I am proclaming as if its impossible. I never said that, I said more often than not guys with as much accuracy issues as him who have been around as long as him dont generally all of a sudden become really accurate passers. Are the exceptions...of course, but its still not the norm.

 

Just like in the NBA, guys who have spent 5 years being terrible free throw shooters dont generally become good ones. Has it happened...yes...but its not the norm.

 

All this talk abot how he "only has the equivalent of 3 seaasons" is crap. Tim Tebow said it best when someone asked him this season if he was frustrated he wasnt playing...he said what are you talking about, I play every day in practice. Fitz has had plenty of opportunity in real game experience and practice to develop his accuracy, yet still struggles with it. So, pardon me if I feel its safe to assume that that its more likely that his accuracy issues are going to be something that is part of his game moving forward still.

 

 

BEsides, accuracy isnt quite the same thing as completion percentage. I know there is some connection, obviously, but Fitz can improve his % without really improving his accuracy by simply feeling the system better. When a player knows the system, on O or D you dont think, you feel and react.

 

Fitz is not and has never been a accuracy thrower, he needs to wind up too much to put any mustard on a pass and it affects his accuracy.

 

This whole debate is silly anyway, Chan has said it, if there's a franchise type QB they will take him but they like Fitz for now. I dont know how much clearer he can get..... Fitz isnt the answer.

[Dr. K]

 

 

What we're left with is the realization that, in the all-important yards-per-attempt stat, Fitzpatrick of 2010 did less well than Edwards in 2008. Nor is there an easy way to explain away that statistical difference. No obvious explanation as to why Edwards' YPA overstates the quality of his play in 2008 or why Fitz's YPA understates his level of play in 2010. That should be an extremely disconcerting realization to any Bills fan who sees Fitz as the long-term answer at quarterback.

The reason for the above is a simple, if potentially unwelcome truth. Fitz is not an accurate quarterback. More specifically, he can be very accurate some of the time, but his accuracy is very far from consistent. Fans may be willing to forgive or overlook the drives that stalled because of those inaccurate passes, and the opportunities the Bills missed. But these things show up in the yards per attempt stat.

 

Of course you may be right and Fitz is not going to get any better. I don't deny that.

 

But as regards the bolded paragraph, I would say that one simple explanation for this paradox is that "the all-important yards-per-attempt" stat (and the completion percentage stat) is far from the be-all and end-all measurement of QB play that the OP has asserted throughout this thread, using it as a club against all counter-arguments.

 

Yes, Fitz did not complete 60% of his passes or average more than 7 yards per attempt. But he was less than on completion per game below that standard, and he did many other things that are important to QB success (such as throw TD passes, run for first downs, make quick decisions that improved the performance of a shaky o-line, etc.), and if you focus on just Alphadawg7's stats you come away with conclusions like Trent Edwards is a better QB than Fitzpatrick. That suggests to me that such an approach is flawed as a universal standard of judgment, even if you put a "generally" in front of it.

 

We'll see how it plays out next season. If it makes any difference to you, I agree that the Bills could certainly use still better QB play if they are to improve, and if Fitz doesn't get any better the team will eventually hit a wall.

[sfladave]

Wow, I was thinking of starting a similar thread about how people have been saying it was Stevie's fault cause he drops soooooo many passes and that effects Fitz's completion percentage. Yet the stats show Stevie is about average for dropped passes in The League with one of the best receivers in the league there with him.

 

Stevie J. - 8 dropped

Andre Johnson - 7 dropped

Reggie Wayne - 12 dropped

Mike Williams - 7 dropped

Brandon Marshall - 11 dropped

Wes Welker - 13 dropped; led the league

 

time to put that common thought here at TBD to bed.

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=nfl&type=receiving&rank=232

I find it hard to believe that Stevie only had 8 dropped passes all year, especially when he had 5 in 1 game alone.

[Alphadawg7]

Of course you may be right and Fitz is not going to get any better. I don't deny that.

 

But as regards the bolded paragraph, I would say that one simple explanation for this paradox is that "the all-important yards-per-attempt" stat (and the completion percentage stat) is far from the be-all and end-all measurement of QB play that the OP has asserted throughout this thread, using it as a club against all counter-arguments.

 

Yes, Fitz did not complete 60% of his passes or average more than 7 yards per attempt. But he was less than on completion per game below that standard, and he did many other things that are important to QB success (such as throw TD passes, run for first downs, make quick decisions that improved the performance of a shaky o-line, etc.), and if you focus on just Alphadawg7's stats you come away with conclusions like Trent Edwards is a better QB than Fitzpatrick. That suggests to me that such an approach is flawed as a universal standard of judgment, even if you put a "generally" in front of it.

 

We'll see how it plays out next season. If it makes any difference to you, I agree that the Bills could certainly use still better QB play if they are to improve, and if Fitz doesn't get any better the team will eventually hit a wall.

 

This thread is interesting as the point of the original post I started was simply to dispell the myth that specifically dropped passes are not the reason Fitz's completion % was so low. I have never at any point said completion % is the "be-all and end-all measurement of QB play" at any point. I did state the FACT that QB rating is very lowly regarded by anyone who seriously or professionally evaluates quarterbacks because its fundamentally flawed and inaccurate. That doesnt mean its not ever a good gauge, its just not reliable so they care less about that then they do for the trinity of comp %, ypa, and 3rd conversions.

 

NO ONE STAT is the "be all and end all" for any position in any sport, and I have been far from claiming that. If it was, then Trent would be a hot prospect with his infalted comp %, but everyone knows thats because he throws the bulk of his passes under 5 yards. Just like with any stat, its a starting point...trust me, there are dozens of stats the coaches value highly that you wont find on your ESPN stat check. Fitz OBVIOUSLY brings other good things to the table, things I have praised him for continuously in this thread and other threads...that doesnt change the fact that he struggles mightily with accuracy and as along as that continues he will struggle to be a consistently effective QB in this league.

 

And like I said before, there are exceptions to every common occurence, rule, philosophy, etc in every aspect of life. So all these people trying to find those exceptions about accuracy are really missing the point of the entire thread which was simply: Fitz's dismal completion % was not because of dropped passes in comparison to the other QB's in the NFL.

 

I also find it interesting that the one post in here that keeps getting ignored is the one about the exaggeration going on around here about how good he was this year. By focusing only on his TD totals, it looks more like he had a good year...yet when you go game by game, he actually only had 4 solid or good ones and 9 below average to awful ones.

 

In fact, there is only one stat anyone can ever point to and that was his TD totals...yet half of his TD's came in his first 4 games.

 

Does anyone here even realize that in the last 9 games of the season he had 12 TD'S AND 16 TURNOVERS? I mean, lets be honest here, thats not very good, especially 4 of them came in one game where he benefited greatly from both starting safeties getting knocked out of the game as he was atrocious up to that point against Cincy.

 

I get people love the guy, but I prefer to keep my personal like for the guy aside when I am being honest about his season and short comings.

[Fan in Chicago]

 

Does anyone here even realize that in the last 9 games of the season he had 12 TD'S AND 16 TURNOVERS? I mean, lets be honest here, thats not very good, especially 4 of them came in one game where he benefited greatly from both starting safeties getting knocked out of the game as he was atrocious up to that point against Cincy.

 

I get people love the guy, but I prefer to keep my personal like for the guy aside when I am being honest about his season and short comings.

Holy crap, you just won't give up will you ? Why on earth will you choose the last 9 games ?

And FWIW, Fitz threw 15 INTs the entire season. So you are wrong there also.

This thread is getting moronic cos I have no idea what you really want happening. I get it that you think Fitz sucks and will dig up any stat to prove your point. The sad part is I keep responding and humoring you.