Alphadawg7 Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 (edited) This was in another thread, but since it keeps coming up in multiple threads I felt it deserved a seperate topic to finally dispell this myth that Fitz's completion % was so low because of dropped passes in comparison to other teams. Here are the real facts based on the dropped pass stats that have been compiled for this season. 1. Buffalo was 17th in the NFL in dropped passes. 2. Out of the 16 teams with MORE dropped passes than the Bills, 13 of them had QB's with a higher completion percentage than Fitz 3. Fitz ranks 27th in the league in completion % this year only above Kerry Collins, Sanchez, Claussen, and Derek Anderson. 4. 12 of those 13 QB's with MORE drops and a higher completion % still completed over 60% of their passes with only Hasselbeck under 60% at 59.9%... 5. Fitz completed a lowly 57.8% 6. Bonus fact: He is tied for 9th most INT's this year yet only played in 13 games and got bailed out on many more INT's through unrelated penalties or drops on non-tipped balls that were thrown directly into the hands of the defenders. Someone started a thread comparing Fitz to the "Big 3", so lets look at the big 3: 1. Indy had the MOST drops and yet the 2nd highest completion % in the league was Manning at 66.3% 2. Saints were 7th in drops and yet Brees led the league in completion % at 68.1% 3. NE is 4th in the league in most drops and yet Brady is 4th in the league at 65.9% So can this excuse for Fitz's accuracy issue be finally put to rest and just realize he isnt very accurate? 13 QB's had more drops than Fitz and yet still managed to complete over 60% of their passes (hasselbeck actually was 59.9% as only exception, still 2% higher than Fitz). Fitz's completion % is low because he isnt a very accurate QB, never has been ever in his entire NFL career... This wasnt to bash him, but to be honest about what he is versus what he isnt. I love his passion, guts, and grit and he is light years better than Trent ever was...but that doesnt change that he just isnt that accurate and not nearly accurate enough to be a consistently succesful starter in this league. Edited January 7, 2011 by Alphadawg7
Dorkington Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 Fitz looks great to us, because we were used to Edwards. But compared to the rest of the NFL, he's in the bottom third among starting QBs. The Bills need to look at the QB position either this draft, or next draft. Not necessarily to start the rookie right away, but to at least get him into the system, grooming to be the starter of the future.
Bangarang Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 The thing with Fitz throughout his career was that he was inaccurate and has a noodle for an arm. He did a serviceable job coming in and playing well at times. However, he's turnover prone, isn't accurate, and doesn't have a great arm. Color me not impressed. With that said, I wouldn't hate it if we drafted a QB and gave him a year to sit for a year while Fitz played.
Wayne Cubed Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 (edited) This was in another thread, but since it keeps coming up in multiple threads I felt it deserved a seperate topic to finally dispell this myth that Fitz's completion % was so low because of dropped passes in comparison to other teams. Here are the real facts based on the dropped pass stats that have been compiled for this season. 1. Buffalo was 17th in the NFL in dropped passes. 2. Out of the 16 teams with MORE dropped passes than the Bills, 13 of them had QB's with a higher completion percentage than Fitz 3. Fitz ranks 27th in the league in completion % this year only above Kerry Collins, Sanchez, Claussen, and Derek Anderson. 4. 12 of those 13 QB's with MORE drops and a higher completion % still completed over 60% of their passes with only Hasselbeck under 60% at 59.9%... 5. Fitz completed a lowly 57.8% 6. Bonus fact: He is tied for 9th most INT's this year yet only played in 13 games and got bailed out on many more INT's through unrelated penalties or drops on non-tipped balls that were thrown directly into the hands of the defenders. Someone started a thread comparing Fitz to the "Big 3", so lets look at the big 3: 1. Indy had the MOST drops and yet the 2nd highest completion % in the league was Manning at 66.3% 2. Saints were 7th and drops and yet Brees led the league in completion % at 68.1% 3. NE is 4th in the league in most drops and yet Brady is 4th in the league at 65.9% So can this excuse for Fitz's accuracy issue be finally put to rest and just realize he isnt very accurate? 13 QB's had more drops than Fitz and yet still managed to complete over 60% of their passes (hasselbeck actually was 59.9% as only exception, still 2% higher than Fitz). Fitz's completion % is low because he isnt a very accurate QB, never has been ever in his entire NFL career... This wasnt to bash him, but to be honest about what he is versus what he isnt. I love his passion, guts, and grit and he is light years better than Trent ever was...but that doesnt change that he just isnt that accurate and not nearly accurate enough to be a consistently succesful starter in this league. Wow, I was thinking of starting a similar thread about how people have been saying it was Stevie's fault cause he drops soooooo many passes and that effects Fitz's completion percentage. Yet the stats show Stevie is about average for dropped passes in The League with one of the best receivers in the league there with him. Stevie J. - 8 dropped Andre Johnson - 7 dropped Reggie Wayne - 12 dropped Mike Williams - 7 dropped Brandon Marshall - 11 dropped Wes Welker - 13 dropped; led the league time to put that common thought here at TBD to bed. http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=nfl&type=receiving&rank=232 Edited January 7, 2011 by Wayne333
Alphadawg7 Posted January 7, 2011 Author Posted January 7, 2011 The thing with Fitz throughout his career was that he was inaccurate and has a noodle for an arm. He did a serviceable job coming in and playing well at times. However, he's turnover prone, isn't accurate, and doesn't have a great arm. Color me not impressed. With that said, I wouldn't hate it if we drafted a QB and gave him a year to sit for a year while Fitz played. I definitely give him props for playing his back side off and helping the offense find some life again. Sadly though, he had more bad games than good, and I feel like he is playing at or near his cieling. I would be fine with him starting while we groomed another prospect as well, I actually love the way he plays. I just don't see a QB who can lead this team for the long term in him.
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 I think the issue of Fitz' accuracy is a bit misguided. Yes, he throws some awful footballs at times. But it was stated last year that because of his size, he throws to spots & trusts his receivers will get there even if he can't fully see the read. Because of this, I have little doubt he looks terrible at times in practice & camp. However, we play in Buffalo. Conditions will always hurt your completion %. It's why I have believed for a long time that Brady was the better player of Manning, who plays at least 8 games in dome. Only 4 times out of 11 seasons in his HOF career did Kelly complete 60% of his passes. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KellJi00.htm Bledsoe only did it once in 3 seasons (and that was 61.5%). http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BledDr00.htm Buffalo's conditions plays havoc on qbs.
zonabb Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 (edited) Percentages are misleading and used when intentionally trying to prove a point i.e. cherry pick one stat to base an entire argument on. The beat way to make this argument using this stat would be to use the number of passes total per qb then break out the drops pet attempt for the qb an drops per target for wr. Percent alone tells nothing. It's a fool's stat. Edited January 7, 2011 by zonabb
NoSaint Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 I think the issue of Fitz' accuracy is a bit misguided. Yes, he throws some awful footballs at times. But it was stated last year that because of his size, he throws to spots & trusts his receivers will get there even if he can't fully see the read. Because of this, I have little doubt he looks terrible at times in practice & camp. However, we play in Buffalo. Conditions will always hurt your completion %. It's why I have believed for a long time that Brady was the better player of Manning, who plays at least 8 games in dome. Only 4 times out of 11 seasons in his HOF career did Kelly complete 60% of his passes. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KellJi00.htm Bledsoe only did it once in 3 seasons (and that was 61.5%). http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BledDr00.htm Buffalo's conditions plays havoc on qbs. You could argue the difference in eras against the Kelly numbers, and drew on his decline late in his career. What's bradys percentages in the snow and wind?
billsfan89 Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 Look with your eyes Fitz raises the level of play of his team. Yes his completion percentage is concerning BUT if you put better talent around him I think that his completion percentage will increase. Fitz's completion percentage could be improved to above 60 with an improved O-line, A better D that doesn't make his play one dimensional by playing from behind all the time, a better tightend to throw to, and a more consistent running game. When you are consitantly playing from behind all the time you have to throw deep and those throws are much less accurate. When you are up or close you make safer throws that are higher in completion percentage. Also the Bills offense lacking a tightend might factor into it because tightends provide a much safer outlet for QB's to throw to. Also the inconsistent play of the O-line lowers the play of any QB. All in all I think that Fitz could be a 60%+ completion percentage QB with a better supporting cast.
Thoner7 Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 My guess is Fitzs also leads the NFL in missing WRs of curls and come back routes by 3+ yards.
Alphadawg7 Posted January 7, 2011 Author Posted January 7, 2011 (edited) Percentages are misleading and used when intentionally trying to prove a point i.e. cherry pick one stat to base an entire argument on. The beat way to make this argument using this stat would be to use the number of passes total per qb then break out the drops pet attempt for the qb an drops per target for wr. Percent alone tells nothing. It's a fool's stat. What does that even change? Its a pecentage. Not to mention, the Bills were 17th in the league in dropped passes as a team, but Fitz only played 13 games and balls were dropped in the 3 games he didnt play. That means, he had even FEWER dropped passes then out team total of 26 as not all the dropped passes were ones thrown by Fitz making his completion % even more inexcusable. My guess is Fitzs also leads the NFL in missing WRs of curls and come back routes by 3+ yards. And screen passes thrown out of bounds, in the ground, or behind the WR...seriously, I have never seen a QB struggle to complete a screen pass properly as much as he did. Even on completed ones often they were off target causing the RB or WR to have to have to adjust to the ball allowing the D to recover and stuff the play. Edited January 7, 2011 by Alphadawg7
San-O Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 And screen passes thrown out of bounds, in the ground, or behind the WR...seriously, I have never seen a QB struggle to complete a screen pass properly as much as he did. Even on completed ones often they were off target causing the RB or WR to have to have to adjust to the ball allowing the D to recover and stuff the play. I seem to remember Bledsoe being pretty bad. Except when throwing to "the King".
RuntheDamnBall Posted January 8, 2011 Posted January 8, 2011 ZOMG Fitzpatrick isn't Brady, Manning or Brees! Someone call the news.
BillsObserver Posted January 8, 2011 Posted January 8, 2011 As soon as I saw the author of this thread, I knew exactly what this was about. It's a broken record with Alpha. Sorry brah
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 8, 2011 Posted January 8, 2011 Wow, I was thinking of starting a similar thread about how people have been saying it was Stevie's fault cause he drops soooooo many passes and that effects Fitz's completion percentage. Yet the stats show Stevie is about average for dropped passes in The League with one of the best receivers in the league there with him. Stevie J. - 8 dropped Andre Johnson - 7 dropped Reggie Wayne - 12 dropped Mike Williams - 7 dropped Brandon Marshall - 11 dropped Wes Welker - 13 dropped; led the league time to put that common thought here at TBD to bed. http://stats.washing...eiving&rank=232 There are some apples to kumquats comparison here: comparing number of dropped passes or INTs to completion percentage For example, Welker may have dropped more balls than anyone else, but maybe he had an even higher number of receptions. Not too meaningful of itself. Need to look dropped passes or INTs as a percentage to compare. Might be worse news that might make your point even better. Or then again, not We're having a party 2night and I'm not revved up enough for helping here to fix the comparison for ya'll. Don't think dropped balls causing Fitz low completion #. Don't think interceptions causing Fitz low completion # It is a fact, Jack that fairly small change in both would make a very significant change in Fitz completion percentage and QB rating. Stevie just needs to stop dropping so much for his own sake, to improve as a receiver
Alphadawg7 Posted January 8, 2011 Author Posted January 8, 2011 As soon as I saw the author of this thread, I knew exactly what this was about. It's a broken record with Alpha. Sorry brah LOL, well maybe if in every single thread that had to do with anything about Fitz didnt have dozens of people inaccurately stating how we had all these drops and thats the reason for his low completion percentage, struggles, etc. Hence its own thread to just display the facts and put this myth to rest
bills7834 Posted January 8, 2011 Posted January 8, 2011 (edited) This was in another thread, but since it keeps coming up in multiple threads I felt it deserved a seperate topic to finally dispell this myth that Fitz's completion % was so low because of dropped passes in comparison to other teams. Here are the real facts based on the dropped pass stats that have been compiled for this season. 1. Buffalo was 17th in the NFL in dropped passes. 2. Out of the 16 teams with MORE dropped passes than the Bills, 13 of them had QB's with a higher completion percentage than Fitz 3. Fitz ranks 27th in the league in completion % this year only above Kerry Collins, Sanchez, Claussen, and Derek Anderson. 4. 12 of those 13 QB's with MORE drops and a higher completion % still completed over 60% of their passes with only Hasselbeck under 60% at 59.9%... 5. Fitz completed a lowly 57.8% 6. Bonus fact: He is tied for 9th most INT's this year yet only played in 13 games and got bailed out on many more INT's through unrelated penalties or drops on non-tipped balls that were thrown directly into the hands of the defenders.Someone started a thread comparing Fitz to the "Big 3", so lets look at the big 3: 1. Indy had the MOST drops and yet the 2nd highest completion % in the league was Manning at 66.3% 2. Saints were 7th in drops and yet Brees led the league in completion % at 68.1% 3. NE is 4th in the league in most drops and yet Brady is 4th in the league at 65.9% So can this excuse for Fitz's accuracy issue be finally put to rest and just realize he isnt very accurate? 13 QB's had more drops than Fitz and yet still managed to complete over 60% of their passes (hasselbeck actually was 59.9% as only exception, still 2% higher than Fitz). Fitz's completion % is low because he isnt a very accurate QB, never has been ever in his entire NFL career... This wasnt to bash him, but to be honest about what he is versus what he isnt. I love his passion, guts, and grit and he is light years better than Trent ever was...but that doesnt change that he just isnt that accurate and not nearly accurate enough to be a consistently succesful starter in this league. I don't belive Fitz is the second coming of Joe Montana, but he did a serviceable job this year. I would love it if the Bills had a sure thing QB sitting on the bench getting ready to start his long HOF career. They don't have that person yet. I do believe if you are drafting at 3 you better grab a sure thing blue chip player. I don't want a reach, project, questionable character type player. My point for this reply was, that you say you didn't start this thread to bash him, and yet you talk about Int's that didn't happen due to penalties, or drops. I'm pretty sure other Qb's had the same thing happen. You take all the stats and list them as they are the only truth. At that point the one stat that you want to elaborate on is the one that would have him throw more int's. Be honest. It's like Fox News saying they don't lean to the right or CNN saying they don't lean to the left. My gut instinct is that he will not be a consistent top 10 Qb in the league. I also think he can get you deep if you have good players around him(see Sanchez). If a Qb is there at some point and is higher on your draft board then another position then take him. He is a Qb that will fill the role until we find the real one. Edited January 8, 2011 by bills7834
Doc Posted January 8, 2011 Posted January 8, 2011 (edited) Wow, I was thinking of starting a similar thread about how people have been saying it was Stevie's fault cause he drops soooooo many passes and that effects Fitz's completion percentage. Yet the stats show Stevie is about average for dropped passes in The League with one of the best receivers in the league there with him. Stevie J. - 8 dropped Andre Johnson - 7 dropped Reggie Wayne - 12 dropped Mike Williams - 7 dropped Brandon Marshall - 11 dropped Wes Welker - 13 dropped; led the league time to put that common thought here at TBD to bed. http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=nfl&type=receiving&rank=232 Funny. TO dropped 8-9 passes a year and everyone crucified him for it. There are some apples to kumquats comparison here: comparing number of dropped passes or INTs to completion percentage For example, Welker may have dropped more balls than anyone else, but maybe he had an even higher number of receptions. Welker had 86 receptions, which is the same number as Johnson and Marshall. Wayne had 111 receptions. Even Stevie had 82 receptions. Mike Williams however had just 65 receptions. Welker had a bad year when it came to dropping passes. As for the argument, Fitz didn't have an entire off-season, training camp, and pre-season with most of his receivers. And you also have to account for the fact that through attrition, the Bills' WR corp ended-up consisting of a 3rd year 7th rounder and 3 UDFA WR's. Many of who likely ran the wrong routes at times. Then there's the issue of O-line protection. Brady didn't look so accurate against the Giants in that SB loss, did he? That being said, there's no reason Fitz can't improve his accuracy. And I expect them to address the RT spot (and hopefully this time, with a good player). While he'll go into training camp and pre-season as the clear-cut #1. Is the the long-term answer? Probably not. But he's the best we got until we get better. Edited January 8, 2011 by Doc
John from Riverside Posted January 8, 2011 Posted January 8, 2011 To me this borderlines on crusading..... I cannot think of one poster on this board that doesnt think Fitz has accuracy issues.....even his biggest supporters will admist that the ball gets away from him here and there..... A few things - When people B word about Fitz interceptions......well keep in mind that a. He has to force the ball to keep that chain moving because our running game wasn't anything to write home about and b. Lets keep in mind what he had to work with.....rookie wideouts, 7th rounders, no tight end - Maybe if we could RUN THE BALL a little better and force defenses to change the way they defend us a little bit...then fitz actually has more room to throw. Maybe if we improve our O line and he doesnt have to get rid of it on a two potato count he might be able to step into a throw thus making him more accurate - People want to B word about the outcome without looking at the causes - Maybe if Fitz didnt feel he had to create points on each and every drive because our defense cant stop anybody he would have to take so many chances - Maybe if he had a sure handed TE sure handed safety valve on the field his percentage goes up FITZ IS THE LEAST OF OUR PROBLEMS
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