Fitz's 2011 stats compared to the Big Three

[The Wei 44]

Great summary - The rushing yardage is interesting too (unfortunately, it also reflects the fact that he was running for his life at times) - It would be interesting to see how many first downs were made off of those rushes - I think it will be a decent number of first downs. I completely agree with what many others have said - He is a solid QB with potential to improve and we have many other very pressing needs. It will be very interesting to see how he does next year, assuming there is a season.

[billsfreak]

I decided to compare Fitz's stats to the big three for 2011, just to see...

 

Yes, I'm on a pro-Fitz kick, but no I'm not saying he is as good as these guys (or ever will be), just wanted to see how the stats compared.

 

Fitz obviously only played 13 games, so I averaged his numbers out to 16 games and I included rushing yards since that is

part of his game as well.

 

 

...................................................FITZ.................................Manning...........................Brees............................Brady

Games....................................16 (prorated)............................16...................................16.................................16

Pass Attempts...............................542...................................679.................................658...............................492

Pass Completions..........................313...................................450.................................448...............................324

Completion Percentage.................57.8%...............................66.3%...............................68.1%...........................65.9%

Total Yards (Pass & Rush).............4,005................................4,718..............................4,617............................3,930

Passing Yards...............................3,692................................4,700..............................4,620............................3,900

Yards Per Attempt..........................6.8....................................6.9..................................7.0................................7.9

Touchdown Passes.........................28.....................................33....................................33................................36

Interceptions.................................18......................................17....................................22.................................4

Total 1st downs (Pass&rush)..........202...................................255.................................237..............................199

Comp for 1st Downs.....................186....................................253.................................236..............................189

Rushing Yards...............................331......................................1...................................-2.................................30

 

If Fitz had the same number of attempts as Manning (with these numbers) he would have had 4,623 yds to Peyton's 4,700

(77 yards less or 5 yards less per game) and he would have had 35 TDs to Peyton's 33; INTs would go up however to 22 for Fitz

compared to 17 for Peyton...I know that's all speculative, but its interesting nonetheless.

 

Fitz's yards per attempt were similar to Manning and Brees and he had more total yards than Brady on the season (including rushing).

The only major disparity is in completion percentage (8-10%) and TD/INT ratio versus Brady.

 

 

Granted the big three didn't have career years this season (except for Brady's TD/INT%), but they also all had better offensive lines, more proven

skill players, and have been in their offensive system for multiple years. Fitz's stats look pretty good to me for a guy with a lot less playing

time and in his first year in a new system. If he can improve his completion % with a better O-line and more experience then we have a pretty

good QB (I know a lot of you think he can't improve his accuracy, but I'm not so sure...not having to run for your life helps a lot).

 

Not every team can have an elite QB; at any given time there are probably only 3-5 teams of 32 that have an elite QB. So, I'm happy we at least have

Fitz and not another Trent Edwards, J.P., etc. I think Fitz can win in this league with the right pieces around him.

 

What say you?

 

Go Bills!

I say you need to find something to do with your time. Comparing Fitz to those 3? Are you serious. You might be able to compare Fitz to the top three backups in the league favorably. That is like comparing Fred Jackson to O.J. Simpson, Barry Sanders and Walter Payton, to even suggest they are in the same league is ridiculous.

[The Wei 44]

I say you need to find something to do with your time. Comparing Fitz to those 3? Are you serious. You might be able to compare Fitz to the top three backups in the league favorably. That is like comparing Fred Jackson to O.J. Simpson, Barry Sanders and Walter Payton, to even suggest they are in the same league is ridiculous.

 

Original poster was very clear that he was not saying Fitz was as good as these guys. There is nothing wrong with making the comparison - It is a good way to benchmark Fitz's performance relativr to the best QBs in the league.

[Dorkington]

If he throws more accurately, throws less interceptions, and fumbles less, then we have a good QB. Until then, we have a middle of the pack QB, who, if surrounded by great talent can get us to the playoffs. He's not good enough, currently, to carry a team the way the three mentioned in the OP can.

[Van_phelaN1]

The real big stand out stat here that really separates him from the rest of the group is his completion percentage. I am a pro Fitz guy but if he wants to keep this job and this team wants to contend for a title, his completion percentage has to come up a little bit. Among other things (and by that I mean the rest of the team must improve in general as well)

[Maddog69]

Do any of you actually watch the games or do you just look for stats to make idiotic comparisons?

 

Fitz's accuracy is terrible. Even when he makes a completion, the ball is generally not in a position for the receiver to make extra yardage.

Fitz's decision making is right on. He reads the defense and makes the right throw, but the positoning on the throws is almost never perfectly on target.

 

I like Fitz. I think he is decent. Much better than we've had in years. But please stop the comparisons to the elite QBs in the game today and to Jim Kelly and the elite QBs of the past. Anybody who watches football can easily see that Fitz does not compare to any of them.

[CosmicBills]

A %57 completion rate is NOT good enough to win in the NFL on a consistent basis. Everyone here seems to be under the impression that accuracy can be taught. I don't believe that's true (neither do hall of famers like Steve Young). If a QB works, sure he can improve it slightly, but accuracy is one of those "it" qualities like speed that can't be taught.

 

Fitz's CAREER completion percentage is under %58. He's been in the league 6 years and played 42 games. That's almost 3 full seasons of "game" experience in addition to 6 mini camps, training camps and OTAs. Contrary to popular belief, he is not a green, young QB. He is a seasoned vet. Accuracy is perhaps the single most important statistic (other than wins) in which you measure a QB. And for Fitz, those numbers aren't going up regardless of who you put around him.

 

And that folks, is why he isn't a franchise QB and why, if the opportunity is there, the Bills have to take a franchise QB in the draft.

 

Original poster was very clear that he was not saying Fitz was as good as these guys. There is nothing wrong with making the comparison - It is a good way to benchmark Fitz's performance relativr to the best QBs in the league.

If anything, the numbers he showed demonstrate how far off pace Fitz is. Not how close he is to being in the "top 3".

[Gary M]

Great summary - The rushing yardage is interesting too (unfortunately, it also reflects the fact that he was running for his life at times) - It would be interesting to see how many first downs were made off of those rushes - I think it will be a decent number of first downs. I completely agree with what many others have said - He is a solid QB with potential to improve and we have many other very pressing needs. It will be very interesting to see how he does next year, assuming there is a season.

 

You beat me to it. Those other four could stand behind their OL all day and find receivers.

 

The Bills should be looking to sign a known OL in free agency, then drafting a couple of top OL prospects.

 

Oline needs to be a priority.

[CardinalScotts]

That's a pretty major disparity, right there. I hope Fitz can break 60% next year. The great QBs are all over 65% in today's game ... if he can pass 60% Fitz can be good, if he can pass 62-63% he'd be great. However, until he passes 60% he will always be a flawed QB in my view.

agree but you also have to figure in Fitz ability to run and toughness- I trade a few % points for a guy who can take a hit and can run

[CosmicBills]

agree but you also have to figure in Fitz ability to run and toughness- I trade a few % points for a guy who can take a hit and can run

Then you'll also trade some Wins for that as well ...

[1billsfan]

The problem with that line of thinking is the problem with this entire thread...You can put all the numbers together you want to...You can compare, contrast, and speculate to your hearts content...But Fitz will NEVER be the caliber of QB Manning, Brees, Brady, or Rivers is because he's just not that good. Why complicate it? Watch the Games and if you can't figure it out then find another sport to watch because you just don't get it...And it's no knock on Fitz either...He does a hell of a lot with what he's got...He's just not at that level...And he's not going to be either...He's EXACTLY at the level he played this year...He'll be around the 15th-20th best QB in the League as a Starter on average...He may have one year where he puts it all together before retuning to mediocrity...But it's going to be short lived...He's not an elite QB in this league and it has nothing to do with the Offensive Line or the WR's...It has to do with the fact that he's not at that level...

 

Folks around here want to give Gailey credit for understand Offense and Coaching the QB...well...Gailey chose Edwards over Fitz. And even though he made the wrong decision, there were valid reasons for it. Fitz is what he is...And I hear a lot of assumption that Fitz is going to improve with this or that...But what if he peaked? It is possible...And look at Fitz's QB Ratings vs. better Defenses after the Baltimore Game...61.4 vs KC, 67.4 vs Chicago, 67.4 vs Pittsburgh, 75.1 vs Minnesota, and 37.1 vs New England...I think a GREAT deal of the love for Fitz comes from the obvious contrast to Losman and Edwards. Fitz is certainly better than what we've seen around here for years now...But he's still not great...

 

You want to win with Fitz? Here's how you're going to do it...Build a Top 3 Defense and Running Game...Build a Team to mirror The Jets...That's how you're going to win with Fitz...It can be done...But it's going to take upgrades ALL over...Look at how much talent is on that Jets Roster...It will take the Bills years to build talent like that...But if they land a QB who is considerably better than Sanchez the gap is narrowed immediately...They just have to find that QB...Not an easy task for sure...

 

I would not assume Fitz is going to get much better than he was this year...And I doubt that's going to be good enough in the long run...But I could be wrong...

 

 

You couldn't be more wrong if you tried.

 

Fitzpatrick made no-name players Stevie Johnson, David Nelson, Naaman Roosevelt and Roscoe Parrish look like very good players. That's a clear sign he's a VERY GOOD qb.

 

As you said...why complicate it? Watch the Games and if you can't figure it out then find another sport to watch because you just don't get it.

[thewildrabbit]

And you guys look at the stats and go ooohh and aaahhhh, Fitz was the 22nd rated passer this season in the NFL....now look at who is # 15, Chad Henne...ROFL Henne stunk up the field in most every game I watched him play in this year, also Miami is stating they need a new QB

 

Kyle Orton was the 10th rated QB and he will be looking for a job as Tim Tebow takes his place next season. Tyler Thigpin looked good at KC while playing for Gailey, that team went 2-14.

 

Seriously guys get a grip on reality, its all about wins and loses, stats are just fluff

 

http://www.nfl.com/s...=2&d-447263-n=1

 

 

Look close at some of those stats and do they honestly reflect how good a player or team is? Here is a stat for ya. Fitz was only sacked 24 times this season, Tom Brady was sacked 25 times...does that mean the Bills O line is as good as the Patriots O line?

 

 

The difference between Fitz and Brees-Manning-Rivers-Brady is miles, when was the last time you saw the Bills down in the 4th QTR and watched Fitz rally his team to victory, like Brees-Manning-Rivers-Brady do almost every week? Once against a bad team he used to play for?

 

 

Face facts, the guy is 8-14-1 career. Stating that I think he will improve if given time to gain more continuity with the same coaches and on the same team. I'm just not ready to canonize the guy

Edited January 7, 2011 by Harvey lives

[zow2]

I'd like to see 3rd down conversion % for each of those guys. IMO, 3rd down conversions and turnovers are the two most important stats in football.

Edited January 7, 2011 by zow2

[The Wei 44]

And you guys look at the stats and go ooohh and aaahhhh, Fitz was the 22nd rated passer this season in the NFL....now look at who is # 15, Chad Henne...ROFL Henne stunk up the field in most every game I watched him play in this year, also Miami is stating they need a new QB

 

Kyle Orton was the 10th rated QB and he will be looking for a job as Tim Tebow takes his place next season. Tyler Thigpin looked good at KC while playing for Gailey, that team went 2-14.

 

Seriously guys get a grip on reality, its all about wins and loses, stats are just fluff

 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=0&statisticCategory=PASSING&conference=null&season=2010&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=PASSING_YARDS&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-n=1

 

 

Look close at some of those stats and do they honsetly reflect how good a player or team is? Here is a stat for ya. Fitz was only sacked 24 times this season, Tom Brady was sacked 25 times...does that mean the Bills O line is as good as the Patriots O line?

 

 

First, you need to annualize the sack figures. So Fitz was actually sacked more on a 16-game basis. Second, Brady is less mobile than Fitz. Third, it is porbably fair to say that neither QB was sacked very much, which in Brady's case reflects the quality of his OL, his ability to scan field quickly, and his quick release whereas in Fitz's case, it reflects his mobility, smarts, and probably also the fact that he played less downs because our defense is so bad (particualrly run defense, which eats a lot of clock).

[Maddog69]

I'd like to see 3rd down conversion % for each of those guys. IMO, 3rd down conversions and turnovers are the two most important stats in football.

 

this is a good point.

Fitz seemed to turn the ball over or failed to extend drives too many times in the 4th quarter when games were on the line.

[Mr. WEO]

If Fitz had the same number of attempts as Manning (with these numbers) he would have had 4,623 yds to Peyton's 4,700

(77 yards less or 5 yards less per game) and he would have had 35 TDs to Peyton's 33; INTs would go up however to 22 for Fitz

compared to 17 for Peyton...I know that's all speculative, but its interesting nonetheless.

 

Fitz's yards per attempt were similar to Manning and Brees and he had more total yards than Brady on the season (including rushing).

The only major disparity is in completion percentage (8-10%) and TD/INT ratio versus Brady.

 

 

Granted the big three didn't have career years this season (except for Brady's TD/INT%), but they also all had better offensive lines, more proven

skill players, and have been in their offensive system for multiple years. Fitz's stats look pretty good to me for a guy with a lot less playing

time and in his first year in a new system. If he can improve his completion % with a better O-line and more experience then we have a pretty

good QB (I know a lot of you think he can't improve his accuracy, but I'm not so sure...not having to run for your life helps a lot).

 

Not every team can have an elite QB; at any given time there are probably only 3-5 teams of 32 that have an elite QB. So, I'm happy we at least have

Fitz and not another Trent Edwards, J.P., etc. I think Fitz can win in this league with the right pieces around him.

 

What say you?

 

Go Bills!

I like Fitz, but there are many problems with comparisons that rely completely on extrapolation to make a point.

 

First, one fatal flaw is that if you take ANY QB with a such a mediocre YPA and multiply that times Manning's insane attempt number, you'e going to get about the same number of yards as Manning this year. You would have to include not just Fitz when comparing to the "big 3", but also such greats as Troy Smith, Alex Smith (on the same team!!) and Colt McCoy, etc. See how quickly this becomes nonsensical?

 

Second problem is that the Bills already pass more than most teams (56% of the time) and there is no way Fitz could ever possibly approach 679 attempts per game because the Bills simply don't run enough plays on offense. They can't score because they cannot sustain drives.

 

Third, your extrapolation assumes that Fitz would have played as well in the games he missed. It is likely he would have had a few more games under 200 yrds (6) than over 300 (2). His median was 211 ypg.

 

He had a nice year. Enjoy it. No need to make silly comparisons.

[NoSaint]

I decided to compare Fitz's stats to the big three for 2011, just to see...

 

Yes, I'm on a pro-Fitz kick, but no I'm not saying he is as good as these guys (or ever will be), just wanted to see how the stats compared.

 

Fitz obviously only played 13 games, so I averaged his numbers out to 16 games and I included rushing yards since that is

part of his game as well.

 

 

...................................................FITZ.................................Manning...........................Brees............................Brady

Games....................................16 (prorated)............................16...................................16.................................16

Pass Attempts...............................542...................................679.................................658...............................492

Pass Completions..........................313...................................450.................................448...............................324

Completion Percentage.................57.8%...............................66.3%...............................68.1%...........................65.9%

Total Yards (Pass & Rush).............4,005................................4,718..............................4,617............................3,930

Passing Yards...............................3,692................................4,700..............................4,620............................3,900

Yards Per Attempt..........................6.8....................................6.9..................................7.0................................7.9

Touchdown Passes.........................28.....................................33....................................33................................36

Interceptions.................................18......................................17....................................22.................................4

Total 1st downs (Pass&rush)..........202...................................255.................................237..............................199

Comp for 1st Downs.....................186....................................253.................................236..............................189

Rushing Yards...............................331......................................1...................................-2.................................30

 

If Fitz had the same number of attempts as Manning (with these numbers) he would have had 4,623 yds to Peyton's 4,700

(77 yards less or 5 yards less per game) and he would have had 35 TDs to Peyton's 33; INTs would go up however to 22 for Fitz

compared to 17 for Peyton...I know that's all speculative, but its interesting nonetheless.

 

Fitz's yards per attempt were similar to Manning and Brees and he had more total yards than Brady on the season (including rushing).

The only major disparity is in completion percentage (8-10%) and TD/INT ratio versus Brady.

 

 

Granted the big three didn't have career years this season (except for Brady's TD/INT%), but they also all had better offensive lines, more proven

skill players, and have been in their offensive system for multiple years. Fitz's stats look pretty good to me for a guy with a lot less playing

time and in his first year in a new system. If he can improve his completion % with a better O-line and more experience then we have a pretty

good QB (I know a lot of you think he can't improve his accuracy, but I'm not so sure...not having to run for your life helps a lot).

 

Not every team can have an elite QB; at any given time there are probably only 3-5 teams of 32 that have an elite QB. So, I'm happy we at least have

Fitz and not another Trent Edwards, J.P., etc. I think Fitz can win in a league with the right pieces around him.

 

What say you?

 

Go Bills!

 

 

for fairness sake i would like to add that brees had a terrible knee injury hes been playing on, and manning had the roughest stretch in his career. not to mention that although the saints have a better line it hasnt been particularly good. evans probably leads the league in holds, and stinchcomb has been beaten badly all year (our RT might have been better). not to mention they have been without atleast 2 of their top 3 running backs since about the 3rd week of the season, and receivers having been dropping passes that would make even stevie shake his head at...... also as a qb throws those extra 100 passes, they tend to be much more mistake filled, and much less efficient. defenses can cue in on the passing game, making it much more difficult to be efficient.

 

what you just proved to me is that even in a down year for the big boys, fitz just doesnt compare. 8-10% is a huge disparity for completion percentage.

[KOKBILLS]

You couldn't be more wrong if you tried.

 

Fitzpatrick made no-name players Stevie Johnson, David Nelson, Naaman Roosevelt and Roscoe Parrish look like very good players. That's a clear sign he's a VERY GOOD qb.

 

As you said...why complicate it? Watch the Games and if you can't figure it out then find another sport to watch because you just don't get it.

 

Oh I get it...you're just delusional...I get it just fine...

 

And for the record I never said Fitz was a bad QB necessarily...He's just not in the neighborhood of the elite QB's in the NFL and seriously...He's not VERY GOOD...He's a little better than average overall...If you can't see that after watching the Games he's played with The Bills I can't help you...You're just not seeing the obvious and there's nothing I can say that will melt away those rose-colored lenses...

 

Fitz will be great when we get all these great Players and a great Defense around him huh? Heard it all before...

 

We'll see...

Edited January 7, 2011 by KOKBILLS

[1billsfan]

for fairness sake i would like to add that brees had a terrible knee injury hes been playing on, and manning had the roughest stretch in his career. not to mention that although the saints have a better line it hasnt been particularly good. evans probably leads the league in holds, and stinchcomb has been beaten badly all year (our RT might have been better). not to mention they have been without atleast 2 of their top 3 running backs since about the 3rd week of the season, and receivers having been dropping passes that would make even stevie shake his head at...... also as a qb throws those extra 100 passes, they tend to be much more mistake filled, and much less efficient. defenses can cue in on the passing game, making it much more difficult to be efficient.

 

what you just proved to me is that even in a down year for the big boys, fitz just doesnt compare. 8-10% is a huge disparity for completion percentage.

 

 

How many of those guys had a new head coach and offensive scheme? How many of those guys were stuck on the 2nd team (getting much fewer snaps) in the entire training camp and first two games? How many of those guys made hay from a 7th round pick and a couple of undrafted rookie receivers?

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Bottom line is his stats demonstrate he can start in the NFL. Upgrade the WR and Line around him and lets see if he can bring home some wins.

 

Fitz put the team in position to win Pit, Bal and KC and proved to he's not a million miles away from someone who can deliver wins to the franchise. In fact with his smarts and continuity in a system a healthy O-line (some free agent and draft help) and Easley back in with high hopes, Evans, Parrish, Stevie and Nelson, perhaps the addition of a quality tight end, the offense could be the best we have seen in Buffalo since the 90's.