folz Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 I decided to compare Fitz's stats to the big three for 2011, just to see... Yes, I'm on a pro-Fitz kick, but no I'm not saying he is as good as these guys (or ever will be), just wanted to see how the stats compared. Fitz obviously only played 13 games, so I averaged his numbers out to 16 games and I included rushing yards since that is part of his game as well. ...................................................FITZ.................................Manning...........................Brees............................Brady Games....................................16 (prorated)............................16...................................16.................................16 Pass Attempts...............................542...................................679.................................658...............................492 Pass Completions..........................313...................................450.................................448...............................324 Completion Percentage.................57.8%...............................66.3%...............................68.1%...........................65.9% Total Yards (Pass & Rush).............4,005................................4,718..............................4,617............................3,930 Passing Yards...............................3,692................................4,700..............................4,620............................3,900 Yards Per Attempt..........................6.8....................................6.9..................................7.0................................7.9 Touchdown Passes.........................28.....................................33....................................33................................36 Interceptions.................................18......................................17....................................22.................................4 Total 1st downs (Pass&rush)..........202...................................255.................................237..............................199 Comp for 1st Downs.....................186....................................253.................................236..............................189 Rushing Yards...............................331......................................1...................................-2.................................30 If Fitz had the same number of attempts as Manning (with these numbers) he would have had 4,623 yds to Peyton's 4,700 (77 yards less or 5 yards less per game) and he would have had 35 TDs to Peyton's 33; INTs would go up however to 22 for Fitz compared to 17 for Peyton...I know that's all speculative, but its interesting nonetheless. Fitz's yards per attempt were similar to Manning and Brees and he had more total yards than Brady on the season (including rushing). The only major disparity is in completion percentage (8-10%) and TD/INT ratio versus Brady. Granted the big three didn't have career years this season (except for Brady's TD/INT%), but they also all had better offensive lines, more proven skill players, and have been in their offensive system for multiple years. Fitz's stats look pretty good to me for a guy with a lot less playing time and in his first year in a new system. If he can improve his completion % with a better O-line and more experience then we have a pretty good QB (I know a lot of you think he can't improve his accuracy, but I'm not so sure...not having to run for your life helps a lot). Not every team can have an elite QB; at any given time there are probably only 3-5 teams of 32 that have an elite QB. So, I'm happy we at least have Fitz and not another Trent Edwards, J.P., etc. I think Fitz can win in this league with the right pieces around him. What say you? Go Bills!
buffalo_bills Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 I say we gotta give him at least another year, with a competent defense around him.
Ghost of Rob Johnson Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 If Fitz had the same number of attempts as Manning (with these numbers) he would have had 4,623 yds to Peyton's 4,700 (77 yards less or 5 yards less per game) and he would have had 35 TDs to Peyton's 33; INTs would go up however to 22 for Fitz compared to 17 for Peyton...I know that's all speculative, but its interesting nonetheless. If I'm reading the info correctly Fitz's pass attempts were prorated to the 16 games as well. The number of attempts are what the number of attempts are. Guys like Manning and Brees are going to have more attempts because they're more prolific players and therefore are in more prolific offenses. A QB at a lower talent level such as Fitz cannot run the type of offense those two do. Not to say Fitz's stats weren't better than expected this season or that the prorated stats aren't impressive, but I will say Fitz is not capable of putting up 4000 yards passing, winning NFL MVP or perhaps even leading his team to a Super Bowl like those two.
HalftimeAdjustment Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 The only major disparity is in completion percentage (8-10%) That's a pretty major disparity, right there. I hope Fitz can break 60% next year. The great QBs are all over 65% in today's game ... if he can pass 60% Fitz can be good, if he can pass 62-63% he'd be great. However, until he passes 60% he will always be a flawed QB in my view.
dayman Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 That's a pretty major disparity, right there. I hope Fitz can break 60% next year. The great QBs are all over 65% in today's game ... if he can pass 60% Fitz can be good, if he can pass 62-63% he'd be great. However, until he passes 60% he will always be a flawed QB in my view. Man, that's Stevie Johnson right there is what that is.
Chimp Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 If I'm reading the info correctly Fitz's pass attempts were prorated to the 16 games as well. The number of attempts are what the number of attempts are. Guys like Manning and Brees are going to have more attempts because they're more prolific players and therefore are in more prolific offenses. A QB at a lower talent level such as Fitz cannot run the type of offense those two do. Not to say Fitz's stats weren't better than expected this season or that the prorated stats aren't impressive, but I will say Fitz is not capable of putting up 4000 yards passing, winning NFL MVP or perhaps even leading his team to a Super Bowl like those two. With wide receivers that can catch, he might throw for 4000 yards. Your assertion that he couldn't throw for 4,000 yards is ridiculous. How do you know? Are you an NFL talent scout? I love how people on this board make concrete statements like they are experts or for some reason their opinion is gospel.
Bzee Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 All you Fitz and Gailey lovers are going to witness another suck year and the year after that, we need a real QB and a competent coaching staff, but unfortunately we’re stuck with this minor league program called the Buffalo Bills.
folz Posted January 7, 2011 Author Posted January 7, 2011 (edited) That's a pretty major disparity, right there. I hope Fitz can break 60% next year. The great QBs are all over 65% in today's game ... if he can pass 60% Fitz can be good, if he can pass 62-63% he'd be great. However, until he passes 60% he will always be a flawed QB in my view. Agreed (that its a major disparity). And just to add more info, in 2008 he had a 59% comp pct. in 13 games with a poor Cinci team and a 56% comp. pct last year in 10 games with that horrid offense. But I really think with another year in the system, an entire offseason with Gailey, going in as the starter, the progress of our young receivers, and hopefully improvement across the O-line he can definitely crack 60%...I don't know how much higher he can go, but I want to see him get that chance. 17 QBs topped 60% comp. percentage this year, but only 6 QBs topped 65% (Manning, Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Rivers, and Jon Kitna) Edited January 7, 2011 by folz
sarmanuscg07 Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 Great analysis there. I think we should be more then content with Fitzy on this team. We're the Bills, we've had guys like J.P., Trent, Rob Johnson, and Kelly Holcomb at the helm over the past decade, to name a few. We have much more pressing needs to talk about then this. We need DL, OL and LB's.... Not a starting QB.
Fixxxer Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 You might laugh at this statement but Fitz should try to check down sometimes. He is always looking for the big play or big gainer which is great but sometimes he ends up forcing the ball.
reddogblitz Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 Another way of looking at this is to look at the playoff QBs from this year. Brady Rothlisberger Cassel Flacco Sanchez P Manning Hasselback Brees Vick Rodgers Ryan Cuttler Nothing scientific here, but just from the naked eye, it appears that Fitz is at least as good as 5 of these (Cassel, Sanchez, Flacco, Hasselback, and Cuttler) To me it says with a better D and OLine, Fitz is plenty good enough to get us to playoffs. Then anything can happen.
Buffalo Barbarian Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 Now that Luck is gone this will be Fitzys last try and if he doesn't improve we will have to draft a franchise QB next year. If he would get his butt in the Gym he would have a way better arm and we wouldn't be having this conversation. Look at Tebow with out the gym his arm would be terrible and he has brought it up to pretty good, it's not the greatest but is better than most.
fansince88 Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 Another way of looking at this is to look at the playoff QBs from this year. Brady Rothlisberger Cassel Flacco Sanchez P Manning Hasselback Brees Vick Rodgers Ryan Cuttler Nothing scientific here, but just from the naked eye, it appears that Fitz is at least as good as 5 of these (Cassel, Sanchez, Flacco, Hasselback, and Cuttler) To me it says with a better D and OLine, Fitz is plenty good enough to get us to playoffs. Then anything can happen. Does anybody notice how many QBs here are 1st year? Think just Sanchez and Big Ben were the only two that saw playoffs in their first year and I could be wrong about that.
Bleed Bills Blue Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 (edited) Another thing to consider is how much better he might have been early in the year had he been the #1 QB throughout all of training camp and the preseason. Edited January 7, 2011 by Bleed Bills Blue
Chandler#81 Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 All you Fitz and Gailey lovers are going to witness another suck year and the year after that, we need a real QB and a competent coaching staff, but unfortunately we're stuck with this minor league program called the Buffalo Bills. Then leave!
BobChalmers Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 Another way of looking at this is to look at the playoff QBs from this year. Brady Rothlisberger Cassel Flacco Sanchez P Manning Hasselback Brees Vick Rodgers Ryan Cuttler Nothing scientific here, but just from the naked eye, it appears that Fitz is at least as good as 5 of these (Cassel, Sanchez, Flacco, Hasselback, and Cuttler) To me it says with a better D and OLine, Fitz is plenty good enough to get us to playoffs. Then anything can happen. Describing Seattle and Hasselback as a "playoff team and QB" doesn't add to the argument. Seattle is the biggest joke in NFL playoff history qualifying by sucking less than the other 3 teams in what has to be the worst division-season in NFL history. Buffalo could have won that division.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 I decided to compare Fitz's stats to the big three for 2011, just to see... Fitz's yards per attempt were similar to Manning and Brees and he had more total yards than Brady on the season (including rushing). The only major disparity is in completion percentage (8-10%) and TD/INT ratio versus Brady. What say you? Thanks for putting this together! To me the numbers that really stands out are completion percentage and INTs. A relatively small change in these numbers would have a big impact on Fitz effectiveness and the Bills offense and move him into the top 3rd of NFL QB Is it possible? Fitz INT % went down 1% between last year and this year. His QB rating went up 12%. He's shown improvement. A more modest continued improvement next year would do it. Of course, it's not all on Fitz - to allow him to improve, he needs a bit better route running and better hands from his receivers, and better OL play. I agree with the other posters who suggest next year is key for Fitz. Unless Chan does a 180 degree turn, he'll be the starter, and get the starter's reps through training camp for the first time in his career. In terms of games started, he's going into his 3rd year and it will be the first time in his career he's gotten a 2nd year with one coach and offensive system. A number of QB (Brees included) have shown a significant step up in their game at about this point in their career. I don't think we quite know what we have yet in Fitz. We'll see next year.
mikef272002 Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 If I'm reading the info correctly Fitz's pass attempts were prorated to the 16 games as well. The number of attempts are what the number of attempts are. Guys like Manning and Brees are going to have more attempts because they're more prolific players and therefore are in more prolific offenses. A QB at a lower talent level such as Fitz cannot run the type of offense those two do. Not to say Fitz's stats weren't better than expected this season or that the prorated stats aren't impressive, but I will say Fitz is not capable of putting up 4000 yards passing, winning NFL MVP or perhaps even leading his team to a Super Bowl like those two. Totally not true..! Remember these other QB's have been in the same system for year, Hell Payton has a Paten Pending label on his play book..! Give FitZ another year under the same coach in the same system and I'm sure you will see improvement..To say he is incapable of leading a team to a Super bowl or throwing for 4000 yards is something I have to strongly dis agree with.. I decided to compare Fitz's stats to the big three for 2011, just to see... Yes, I'm on a pro-Fitz kick, but no I'm not saying he is as good as these guys (or ever will be), just wanted to see how the stats compared. Fitz obviously only played 13 games, so I averaged his numbers out to 16 games and I included rushing yards since that is part of his game as well. ...................................................FITZ.................................Manning...........................Brees............................Brady Games....................................16 (prorated)............................16...................................16.................................16 Pass Attempts...............................542...................................679.................................658...............................492 Pass Completions..........................313...................................450.................................448...............................324 Completion Percentage.................57.8%...............................66.3%...............................68.1%...........................65.9% Total Yards (Pass & Rush).............4,005................................4,718..............................4,617............................3,930 Passing Yards...............................3,692................................4,700..............................4,620............................3,900 Yards Per Attempt..........................6.8....................................6.9..................................7.0................................7.9 Touchdown Passes.........................28.....................................33....................................33................................36 Interceptions.................................18......................................17....................................22.................................4 Total 1st downs (Pass&rush)..........202...................................255.................................237..............................199 Comp for 1st Downs.....................186....................................253.................................236..............................189 Rushing Yards...............................331......................................1...................................-2.................................30 If Fitz had the same number of attempts as Manning (with these numbers) he would have had 4,623 yds to Peyton's 4,700 (77 yards less or 5 yards less per game) and he would have had 35 TDs to Peyton's 33; INTs would go up however to 22 for Fitz compared to 17 for Peyton...I know that's all speculative, but its interesting nonetheless. Fitz's yards per attempt were similar to Manning and Brees and he had more total yards than Brady on the season (including rushing). The only major disparity is in completion percentage (8-10%) and TD/INT ratio versus Brady. Granted the big three didn't have career years this season (except for Brady's TD/INT%), but they also all had better offensive lines, more proven skill players, and have been in their offensive system for multiple years. Fitz's stats look pretty good to me for a guy with a lot less playing time and in his first year in a new system. If he can improve his completion % with a better O-line and more experience then we have a pretty good QB (I know a lot of you think he can't improve his accuracy, but I'm not so sure...not having to run for your life helps a lot). Not every team can have an elite QB; at any given time there are probably only 3-5 teams of 32 that have an elite QB. So, I'm happy we at least have Fitz and not another Trent Edwards, J.P., etc. I think Fitz can win in this league with the right pieces around him. What say you? Go Bills! Very nice work, and thanks for taking the time to do this..! The only thing that bothers me is the completion percentage, obviously Fitz needs work on his accuracy, and then I'm sure the INT's will go down also.. We have to keep in mind also that these other QB's have been in the same system for years, Fitz's wasn't even the starter until week 3 this year, give him a full training camp, a good RT and a great Defense and I bet he can take a team to the Super Bowl.>! Somone below said FitZ was incapable of running an offense like Payton, I say in a year or two FitZ will be running that style of offense, cause thats what Gaily wants to get to at some point... Then leave!
Meathead Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 hi. my name is mh. and i am a fitz and gailey lover thanks for the breakdown. it shows exactly what fitz is: a quality starter who is a terrific value. they should extend him now for about four mil a season and solidify the position for at least a half decade while they prepare somebody to try to take the job from him he should be able to fix the turnover rate simply by concentrating on reducing fumbles, and hes already clearly improved his td/int ratio well over his career average. im afraid he probably wont be able to get the compl% to where it would need to be to make him franchise material, but even where it is he remains a quality starter who is better than at least half the starting qbs in the league viva la fitz
KOKBILLS Posted January 7, 2011 Posted January 7, 2011 Someone below said FitZ was incapable of running an offense like Payton, I say in a year or two FitZ will be running that style of offense, cause thats what Gaily wants to get to at some point... The problem with that line of thinking is the problem with this entire thread...You can put all the numbers together you want to...You can compare, contrast, and speculate to your hearts content...But Fitz will NEVER be the caliber of QB Manning, Brees, Brady, or Rivers is because he's just not that good. Why complicate it? Watch the Games and if you can't figure it out then find another sport to watch because you just don't get it...And it's no knock on Fitz either...He does a hell of a lot with what he's got...He's just not at that level...And he's not going to be either...He's EXACTLY at the level he played this year...He'll be around the 15th-20th best QB in the League as a Starter on average...He may have one year where he puts it all together before retuning to mediocrity...But it's going to be short lived...He's not an elite QB in this league and it has nothing to do with the Offensive Line or the WR's...It has to do with the fact that he's not at that level... Folks around here want to give Gailey credit for understand Offense and Coaching the QB...well...Gailey chose Edwards over Fitz. And even though he made the wrong decision, there were valid reasons for it. Fitz is what he is...And I hear a lot of assumption that Fitz is going to improve with this or that...But what if he peaked? It is possible...And look at Fitz's QB Ratings vs. better Defenses after the Baltimore Game...61.4 vs KC, 67.4 vs Chicago, 67.4 vs Pittsburgh, 75.1 vs Minnesota, and 37.1 vs New England...I think a GREAT deal of the love for Fitz comes from the obvious contrast to Losman and Edwards. Fitz is certainly better than what we've seen around here for years now...But he's still not great... You want to win with Fitz? Here's how you're going to do it...Build a Top 3 Defense and Running Game...Build a Team to mirror The Jets...That's how you're going to win with Fitz...It can be done...But it's going to take upgrades ALL over...Look at how much talent is on that Jets Roster...It will take the Bills years to build talent like that...But if they land a QB who is considerably better than Sanchez the gap is narrowed immediately...They just have to find that QB...Not an easy task for sure... I would not assume Fitz is going to get much better than he was this year...And I doubt that's going to be good enough in the long run...But I could be wrong...
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