The Annual "Worst to First" Report - 2010

[BillsPhan]

2009: Kansas City Chiefs: Last Place: 4-12-0

2010: Kansas City Chiefs: First Place: 10-6-0

 

Other notable teams that made upward movements in 2010:

 

2009: Chicago Bears: Third Place: 7-9-0

2010: Chicago Bears: First Place: 11-5-0

 

2009: Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Last Place: 3-13-0

2010: Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Second Place: 10-6-0 (Missed Wildcard Spot by tiebreaker with Packers & Giants)

 

2009: St. Louis Rams: Last Place: 1-15-0

2010: St. Louis Rams: Second Place: 7-9-0 (Last game at Seattle was for the NFC West Division.)

 

Those 4 teams combined averaged a fraction under 6 games improvement each from one season to the next. Granted, they are only 4 of 32 total teams in the NFL, so obviously the odds of the Bills duplicating this success from 2010 to 2011 (if there is a season in 2011 of course) are only about 13% possible.

 

But every year in the NFL about 4 to 6 teams have one-season turn arounds similar to above. It proves that although not probable, it is possible every single off season to improve by about 6 games better then your losing season before. Plus, all four of those teams above seem to be pretty solidly built with good coaching and good management in place. I do not see any of their upgrades being "one year wonder" type seasons like the Dolphins had going from 1-15-0 to 11-5-0 in one year, and then not making the playoffs the following 2 years after that.

 

So even though Buddy Nix is subscribed to the old fashioned "long path" to winning and most fans out here agree with him, I still think with the salary cap and FA teams can do it faster, a few teams actually do do it faster every season, and after 11 straight non-playoff seasons, I would like to see the Bills do it faster then the old fashioned 3-5 year time tables.

[eSJayDee]

I agree w/ you that it is possible. And in fact, given the frequency that it's done & the # of opportunities that we've had to do it, I'd almost say it's reasonable that it's EXPECTED.

 

Further, I'd say you have your odds wrong though. Obviously, NE & Atlanta aren't able to make substantial improvements next yr. If you look at 2009 rcds, I'd hazard to guess there'd only be maybe 10 teams that would be "eligible" for such a significant turnaround, so from an empirical standpoint, the odds should be much higher. (The fact that we've been unable to do so given so many tries recently, makes me more skeptical about our chances.)

[bowery4]

It is a good point and a good post thanks for lightening the mood around here. I think we have a lot of places to improve but it can be done. I am hoping we are going to give this FA period a go and pick up some skilled players for a change.

[Ramius]

So your point is that we can go from 4-12 in 2010 to first in 2011? Sounds good to me.

[1B4IDie]

2009: Kansas City Chiefs: Last Place: 4-12-0

2010: Kansas City Chiefs: First Place: 10-6-0

 

Other notable teams that made upward movements in 2010:

 

2009: Chicago Bears: Third Place: 7-9-0

2010: Chicago Bears: First Place: 11-5-0

 

2009: Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Last Place: 3-13-0

2010: Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Second Place: 10-6-0 (Missed Wildcard Spot by tiebreaker with Packers & Giants)

 

2009: St. Louis Rams: Last Place: 1-15-0

2010: St. Louis Rams: Second Place: 7-9-0 (Last game at Seattle was for the NFC West Division.)

 

Those 4 teams combined averaged a fraction under 6 games improvement each from one season to the next. Granted, they are only 4 of 32 total teams in the NFL, so obviously the odds of the Bills duplicating this success from 2010 to 2011 (if there is a season in 2011 of course) are only about 13% possible.

 

But every year in the NFL about 4 to 6 teams have one-season turn arounds similar to above. It proves that although not probable, it is possible every single off season to improve by about 6 games better then your losing season before. Plus, all four of those teams above seem to be pretty solidly built with good coaching and good management in place. I do not see any of their upgrades being "one year wonder" type seasons like the Dolphins had going from 1-15-0 to 11-5-0 in one year, and then not making the playoffs the following 2 years after that.

 

So even though Buddy Nix is subscribed to the old fashioned "long path" to winning and most fans out here agree with him, I still think with the salary cap and FA teams can do it faster, a few teams actually do do it faster every season, and after 11 straight non-playoff seasons, I would like to see the Bills do it faster then the old fashioned 3-5 year time tables.

All of these teams are on year 2-3 of a rebuilding process with new HCs or FOs.

In the case of the Bears they started rebuilding the offense by trading for Cutler then bringing in Martz, And Peppers. It didn't happen after 1 season.

 

Next year the stakes are raised for sure, 8 wins is the upside goal for the 2011 Buffalo team.

BTW the Bills have a better record in the 1st year of their rebuilding than two of those teams. If that makes you feel better.

Edited January 3, 2011 by Why So Serious?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

All of these teams are on year 2-3 of a rebuilding process with new HCs and FOs.

 

Next year the stakes are raised for sure, 8 wins is the upside goal for the 2011 Buffalo team.

BTW the Bills have a better record in the 1st year of their rebuilding than two of those teams. If that makes you feel better.

 

WSS FTW.

Edited January 3, 2011 by joesixpack

[Pete]

I like the optimism! Yeah the year was brutal at times, but it was exciting too and for the first time this decade I feel like we are heading in the right direction. Chan seems to know what he is doing. Picking at the 3rd slot we will get a few instant impact players. IF we could land a big free agent (Pioli or David Harris maybe) that would be huge. And we will be better with the draft

[MarkyMannn]

So your point is that we can go from 4-12 in 2010 to first in 2011? Sounds good to me.

 

Not first so long as either the Bills or Pats are in the same division