one of you "WE GOTTA LOSE THIS WEEK!" people

[yungmack]

Jeez, I guess unless the Bills pick in the top 3 they're doomed to mediocrity or worse forever and ever. I mean, look how drafting in the bottom of each round for the past decade has doomed the Pats to that horrible condition.

 

(The logic of drafting in the top 3 or 4 or 5 falls to pieces when you consider what's implied: that the team will go on to great success if it picks in that range. Do you not see the illogic here? By becoming successful, the team will wind up drafting further down in the draft...which means that each step on the path to improvement contains its own "guarantee" of failure. Thus, by the logic of those who want the Bills to draft 1-5, they are actually doing themselves great harm. It simply doesn't stand up to scrutiny. Refer to the Pats example for further study).

Edited December 29, 2010 by yungmack

[DrDawkinstein]

Jeez, I guess unless the Bills pick in the top 3 their doomed to mediocrity or worse forever and ever. I mean, look how drafting in the bottom of each round for the past decade has doomed the Pats to that horrible condition.

 

(The logic of drafting in the top 3 or 4 or 5 falls to pieces when you consider what's implied: that the team will go on to great success if it picks in that range. Do you not see the illogic here? By becoming successful, the team will wind up drafting further down in the draft...which means that each step on the path to improvement contains its own "guarantee" of failure. Thus, by the logic of those who want the Bills to draft 1-5, they are actually doing themselves great harm. It simply doesn't stand up to scrutiny. Refer to the Pats example for further study).

 

First off, the Pats* did indeed have a string of weak drafts shortly after their Super Bowl run.

 

Secondly, what does the franchise stand to gain from winning this week?

[bbb]

Secondly, what does the franchise stand to gain from winning this week?

 

I like it. Simple question!

[DrDawkinstein]

I like it. Simple question!

 

Someone mentioned it would help the players' confidence. And I can see that, except for one major thing. There is no telling which players will be back, and which ones wont.

 

It's week 17, time to come to terms with what this season is. Not "what it will be" because there is no future for this season. It IS a losing season. It IS a non-playoff season. We learned a lot about a bunch of different players. There is really nothing to gain this weekend.

[bbb]

Absolutely nothing. I guess the meaningless Colts win last year built up the players confidence to start out 0-8 this year!

[Trader]

please go through the nfl draft history for the past 10-12 years and identify all the top three picks (because remember, we just HAVE TO HAVE A TOP 3 PICK THIS YEAR OR WE'LL NEVER BE GOOD!!) who have proven to be studs and transformed bad teams into good ones. i did notice ryan was taken 3rd by the falcons in '08, so there is one check in your column. but as i scroll back through those lists, i see mostly guys who were drafted by sucky teams who have continued to suck. which supports my view that we don't have to have a top3 pick to turn this team around...what we need is guys who can draft.

 

meanwhile there are as many productive players in the 4-8 spots, where we'll wind up drafting if OMYGOD SHEER AND UTTER DISASTER STRIKES and we win sunday.

 

link:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?season=2009&round=round1

 

<edited for content> Beerball

 

Like a lot of things in sports and in business in general it's not that simple. You would have to compare the entire list of 7 rounds for the team that drafted in each relative position. If you don't believe there is a difference than you might as well fire all of your scouts and save the payroll. Just get a copy of several of the rags and read them. Hold your draft accordingly.

[Adam]

You draft to get better, so you can win. If you want to lose, it becomes pretty pointless, regardless of who or where you draft

[DrFishfinder]

please go through the nfl draft history for the past 10-12 years and identify all the top three picks (because remember, we just HAVE TO HAVE A TOP 3 PICK THIS YEAR OR WE'LL NEVER BE GOOD!!) who have proven to be studs and transformed bad teams into good ones. i did notice ryan was taken 3rd by the falcons in '08, so there is one check in your column. but as i scroll back through those lists, i see mostly guys who were drafted by sucky teams who have continued to suck. which supports my view that we don't have to have a top3 pick to turn this team around...what we need is guys who can draft.

 

meanwhile there are as many productive players in the 4-8 spots, where we'll wind up drafting if OMYGOD SHEER AND UTTER DISASTER STRIKES and we win sunday.

 

link:

http://www.nfl.com/d...09&round=round1

 

<edited for content> Beerball

Look no further than New England to see a team that stockpiles draft choices and produces winning season after winning season without high draft picks. What round was Brady again?

[KD in CA]

Secondly, what does the franchise stand to gain from winning this week?

 

Why, the value of "learning how to win" of course! Did you miss the big season ending triumph over the Colts last season, the resounding impact it had on the players and the huge momentum it gave the Bills heading into 2010???

 

I tell ya, someday we'll look back on a week 17 victory over the Jets 3d string as the turning point of the franchise!!

[jester43]

Did anybody do the homework? Here's some data on top 3 picks.

 

09: Stafford, Jason Smith, Tyson Jackson

08: Long, Long, Matt Ryan

07: JaMarcus, Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas

06: Super Mario, Reggie Heisman, Vince Young

05: Alex Smith, Ronnie Brown, Braylon Edwards

04: Eli Manning, Robert Gallery, Larry Fitzpatrick

03: Carson Palmer, Charles Rogers, Andre Johnson

02: David Carr, Julius Peppers, Joey Harrington

01: Mike Vick, Leonard Davis, Gerard Warren

00: Courtney Brown, LaVar Arrington, Chris Samuels

99: Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith

98: Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf, Andre Wadsworth

 

So, with hands waving, one might say drafting in the top 3 gives a team about a 25-30% chance of hitting on a franchise player. (Of course, Matt Millen single-handedly may have skewed those results for this time period.

my premise was that the guy had to single-handedly turn the team around, like...they couldn't have done it if they hadn't picked him. because that's what i am hearing, we hve to lose sunday or we won't get a guy that will turn us around.

 

i'm not going to nitpick your list because i appreciate the fact that you made it. but even IF all the guys in bold matched my premise, that still leaves 70-75% who don't. based on the bills' track record, which group do you think they'll fall in with a top 3 pick.? be honest. when they had a top 4 pick they wasted it on mike williams.

 

i mentioned in my original post that i realize it has happend, but the odds of the BILLS getting that one guy who changes the culture for the next ten years are so tiny you might as well hope they go out with a bang Sunday in new york and let the draft shake out however it will. because the way our front office does it's job, they're more likely to get the next tom brady in the 6th round than they are to get then next donovan mcnabb at #2. it's so goddam obvious i don't even know why it's an argument.

[Sisyphean Bills]

my premise was that the guy had to single-handedly turn the team around, like...they couldn't have done it if they hadn't picked him. because that's what i am hearing, we hve to lose sunday or we won't get a guy that will turn us around.

 

i'm not going to nitpick your list because i appreciate the fact that you made it. but even IF all the guys in bold matched my premise, that still leaves 70-75% who don't. based on the bills' track record, which group do you think they'll fall in with a top 3 pick.? be honest. when they had a top 4 pick they wasted it on mike williams.

 

i mentioned in my original post that i realize it has happend, but the odds of the BILLS getting that one guy who changes the culture for the next ten years are so tiny you might as well hope they go out with a bang Sunday in new york and let the draft shake out however it will. because the way our front office does it's job, they're more likely to get the next tom brady in the 6th round than they are to get then next donovan mcnabb at #2. it's so goddam obvious i don't even know why it's an argument.

Just throwing the data out there, brother, like you asked -- kicking the discussion along down the road a bit. I also don't have a lot of confidence at this point in the Bills scouting department and draft process. The Modrak track record, which is bordering on Millenesque, speaks for itself. Also, you're preaching to the choir about it being a team sport. Yes, a truly great player like a Peyton or an Elway at the most important position can carry a team a long ways, but it is ultimately a team sport and even the greats need the right supporting cast.

[section122]

So disgusted reading this. How can ppl honestly not see having a higher pick is a good thing! They give higher picks to worse teams so they have a chance to improve. Ppl routinely talk about trading down but why oh why would teams want those high picks according to ppl on this board it means nothing.

Yes losing on purpose is not only unethical but also unprofessional for these paid athletes but come on people! A loss helps this team way more than a win. Back to last year we could have drafted okung if we didn't beat the colts. Yes the draft is a crapshoot... with much improved chances the higher you pick. How can people not see this!?

[CosmicBills]

If you're telling me that the players that the team continues to evaluate wouldn't benefit from a win, and that a coaching staff that needs more experience wouldn't benefit from a win, well, then I don't know what to tell you. There's no guarantee the Jets are playing backups; if we lose to their backups, the TSW crybaby brigade will be out there to inform you how the Bills suck because they can't even beat BACKUPS.

 

I, for one, think the Bills could use players like Jerod Mayo (#10), Ryan Clady (#12), Patrick Willis (#11), Haloti Ngata (#12), DeMarcus Ware (#11), Roethlisberger (#11), Wilfork (#21)... Some of those players are better than a MAJORITY of those picked before them. Maybe it's about how you use the picks you have, and - just as importantly - about the environment you provide for that pick, instead of where you pick.

 

But by all means, rail on about how the Bills' chances are dead in the water if they don't secure that #3 pick, and about how losing is good for all.

 

Also, kudos Bob in STL.

I didn't say that Bills' chances are "dead in the water if they don't secure that #3 pick". Not even close. I said the odds of the team improving quicker are better with a higher draft pick than they are from just a meaningless win against the Jets.

 

It's not that complicated. A higher draft position gives your team more options. Whether that be in the form of better players to choose from to more ammunition to move around in the draft to get the players you deem worthy etc.

 

There's really no argument against that logic.

[Albany,n.y.]

So disgusted reading this. How can ppl honestly not see having a higher pick is a good thing! They give higher picks to worse teams so they have a chance to improve. Ppl routinely talk about trading down but why oh why would teams want those high picks according to ppl on this board it means nothing.

Yes losing on purpose is not only unethical but also unprofessional for these paid athletes but come on people! A loss helps this team way more than a win. Back to last year we could have drafted okung if we didn't beat the colts. Yes the draft is a crapshoot... with much improved chances the higher you pick. How can people not see this!?

Actually, the Bills could never have drafted Okung because going into the Colts game as long as Seattle lost, we weren't catching them with a loss. The result of a win couldn't cost the Bills more than 1 spot because I remember rooting for them at the Indy game because I had already done the math. The best a loss would have done would have put them at 8, not 6 and both LTs would already be gone by then.

However, there have been many years during this decade + of futility that we've lost out on a player we were extremely interested in taking by winning 1 more meaningless game. With our current record and the records of other top 10 potential draft teams, this year, unlike last year, is a definite root for the loss final game.

[CosmicBills]

that quote about MY loser mentality (the one YOU agree with, but it's MY loser mentality...ok yeah, RIGHT) really takes the cake. if you can naively believe that ralph and the beancounters can suddenly build a winning team then i hope santa brought you something nice this year. it's not IMPOSSIBLE for the team to turn a corner because, after all, ralph lucked into a few good teams in between all the sucking. we all know that. but it's insane to think these guys are likely to build a winner suddenly because we picked 2nd or 3rd instead of 8th. there is not one reason to believe that. and yeah i do think the bills will be horrible until ralph dies. i'm not alone and the evidence is on MY side, not yours.

 

i have no problem with playing a few backups, but by your logic we should have been giving up and hoping to lose by the end of october...since that was the point we were eliminated from the playoffs. i want to send jets fans home mad. that would be the more "optimistic" view :lol:

 

please show me evidence that there is "far greater" chance of the bills turning around with a top 3 pick as opposed to a 4 or 6 or 8. i posted the link to the draft history to show you dingleberries that that evidence is spotty at best. why is that so hard to understand?

I didn't call you personally a loser, or mean to imply as much. Sorry if that's how it was interpreted.

 

I was trying to say your theory that this team will never win as long as Ralph is in charge is well founded. There are plenty of folks that would agree with you and plenty of evidence to make your point. It's a thought that I've had cross my mind more than once. But I refuse to believe it's actually true. Because believing that means that you're resigned to the fact that the Bills will never win until he dies. That's the definition of a loser mentality, isn't it? You go into every season with Ralph at the helm KNOWING they're going to lose. Expecting them to lose. How is that anything BUT a losing mentality? It's certainly not a winning one.

 

Let me put it to you another way ... if you're so certain this team can never win with Ralph in charge, why do you continue to watch? Are you a masochist? Is it "in your blood"? Unless the reason is because you enjoy watching the team lose (which I don't think it is), then isn't it fair to admit that having seven higher draft picks improves the chances of this team finding one or more impact players that will help turn this team around? And if the front office is as inept as you say they are (and again, I tend to think Nix is a disaster myself) -- wouldn't it be better to give them MORE options on Draft day rather than less? Wouldn't that do more to improve the long term health of the franchise than one meaningless win? We've already established that momentum doesn't carry over from one season to the next -- there's too much changeover from year to year in professional sports. So what does a win do for the 2011 Bills? What does it do for the 2010 Bills?

 

If this was a finely tuned front office, I'd argue it wouldn't matter where they picked in the draft because they will find the best value and the best players for their system no matter where they pick. The Bills obviously have shown they can't do that -- at least not in the past few years. So it would follow that having a higher draft pick would improve the chances for this front office, no matter how inept, to finally get lucky, right?

[section122]

Actually, the Bills could never have drafted Okung because going into the Colts game as long as Seattle lost, we weren't catching them with a loss. The result of a win couldn't cost the Bills more than 1 spot because I remember rooting for them at the Indy game because I had already done the math. The best a loss would have done would have put them at 8, not 6 and both LTs would already be gone by then.

However, there have been many years during this decade + of futility that we've lost out on a player we were extremely interested in taking by winning 1 more meaningless game. With our current record and the records of other top 10 potential draft teams, this year, unlike last year, is a definite root for the loss final game.

I apologize and thank you for correcting me. I too remember many useless wins costing us players (as mentioned previously big ben and p willis stick out). Meaningless wins help less next august then a better pick in april will sums up my point.

[Adam]

I apologize and thank you for correcting me. I too remember many useless wins costing us players (as mentioned previously big ben and p willis stick out). Meaningless wins help less next august then a better pick in april will sums up my point.

Mike Williams was a great pick. He helped keep us from getting those "useless wins"

[CosmicBills]

Jeez, I guess unless the Bills pick in the top 3 they're doomed to mediocrity or worse forever and ever. I mean, look how drafting in the bottom of each round for the past decade has doomed the Pats to that horrible condition.

 

(The logic of drafting in the top 3 or 4 or 5 falls to pieces when you consider what's implied: that the team will go on to great success if it picks in that range. Do you not see the illogic here? By becoming successful, the team will wind up drafting further down in the draft...which means that each step on the path to improvement contains its own "guarantee" of failure. Thus, by the logic of those who want the Bills to draft 1-5, they are actually doing themselves great harm. It simply doesn't stand up to scrutiny. Refer to the Pats example for further study).

You're right in regards to how the league is structured. The draft is designed to prolong "parity" in the NFL by giving the teams with the worst records a better chance to restock their cupboards than the teams that make the Playoffs. Certainly this is true.

 

But you're comparing the Bills to the Pats which is faulty in both logic and execution. First, the Pats have been masters of the draft for the past decade. They continually wheel and deal and stockpile extra picks to counterbalance exactly what you're talking about. They have had 2 picks in the first round multiple times, sometimes they've had 2 picks in the first three rounds (or at least it seems). They do this so they have the ammunition to move up (or down) in the draft and get the players they covet. The Bills have been unable to do this for multiple reasons. In this specific case, getting SEVEN higher draft picks with a loss gives them the ability to do the same. Higher picks means they will have more opportunity to get the players they want, or more freedom to wheel and deal and either stockpile picks or make a couple moves to get the players they deem worthy.

 

Finally, your comparison to the Pats is faulty because the Bills aren't the Pats. The Pats have had the success they've had because of Tom Brady. End of story. They got lucky with a 6th round pick and nabbed what turned out to be one of the greatest QBs to ever play the game. They have a franchise QB and continue to show why QB is the most important position in sports. You cannot win a championship in the modern NFL without a franchise QB. The Pats got lucky in the 6th round ... I'm hoping the Bills get lucky in this draft too. Not just at the QB spot, but at any number of endless holes on this roster from LB, DE, DT, OT, OG (assuming Wood stays at Center), TE, etc. etc. And aren't the odds of getting lucky once or twice in the draft improved if they're picking from a higher position?

 

How can you not see THAT logic?

[section122]

Mike Williams was a great pick. He helped keep us from getting those "useless wins"

Really dude? No he wasn't but your defeatist logic doesn't apply. Every pick every draft every player is its own entity with an opportunity to be succesful or a failure. I don't care that the ut lineman didn't work I still wanted orakpo. It goes along with the failed qb first rounders akili smith, tim couch, jamarcus have no bearing whatsoever on whether luck, newton, or any other pick (I like moore from bsu but another topic for another thread) will be succesful. However the opportunity to be succesful will be much higher the higher you pick because of the amount of choices you have.

[Adam]

Really dude? No he wasn't but your defeatist logic doesn't apply. Every pick every draft every player is its own entity with an opportunity to be succesful or a failure. I don't care that the ut lineman didn't work I still wanted orakpo. It goes along with the failed qb first rounders akili smith, tim couch, jamarcus have no bearing whatsoever on whether luck, newton, or any other pick (I like moore from bsu but another topic for another thread) will be succesful. However the opportunity to be succesful will be much higher the higher you pick because of the amount of choices you have.

Balderdash! Give me the wins and let the scouting department find some players. Its all about winning.