Mock Draft with Bills Picking #3 & #9

[1B4IDie]

http://drafttek.com/new%20simulator/

 

Assuming the Vikes Lose to the Eagles on Tuesday(pussification)

 

There are 11 teams with 5 wins or less (so much for parity)

 

The 9ers play the Cards and the Lions will play the Vikes so there will be at worst\best 9 teams with 5 wins or less.

 

If the Bills beat the Jets the best\worst case scenario is the Bills pick #9

 

I'm counting that the Bungels will lose to the Ravens and the Panthers have the #1 pick locked.

 

It is possible the Broncos beat the Chargers. If the Bills lose to the Jets that would move the Bills up to the #3 pick

 

Here is a mock with the Bills picking #3:

 

1 3 Buffalo Da'Quan Bowers DE34 Clemson

2 35 Buffalo Travis Lewis ILB Oklahoma

3 67 Buffalo Dontay Moch OLB34 Nevada

4 99 Buffalo Tyron Smith OT USC

4 109 Buffalo Anthony Gray DT34 Southern Miss

5 131 Buffalo Vincent Brown WRF San Diego State

6 163 Buffalo Mario Fannin RBF Auburn

7 198 Buffalo Michael Egnew TE Missouri

 

 

Here is a mock with the Bills picking #4 (I ran this by accident)

 

1 4 Buffalo Da'Quan Bowers DE34 Clemson

2 36 Buffalo Nate Solder OT Colorado

3 68 Buffalo Dontay Moch OLB34 Nevada

4 100 Buffalo Mark Herzlich ILB Boston College

4 109 Buffalo Anthony Gray DT34 Southern Miss

5 132 Buffalo Andrew Rich FS BYU

6 164 Buffalo Edmund Gates WRF Abilene Christian

7 198 Buffalo Kenny Rowe OLB34 Oregon

 

 

Here is a mock with the Bills picking #9

 

 

1 9 Buffalo Marcell Dareus DE34 Alabama

2 41 Buffalo Nate Solder OT Colorado

3 73 Buffalo Dontay Moch OLB34 Nevada

4 105 Buffalo Mark Herzlich ILB Boston College

4 109 Buffalo Anthony Gray DT34 Southern Miss

5 137 Buffalo Vincent Brown WRF San Diego State

6 169 Buffalo Brooks Reed OLB34 Arizona

7 198 Buffalo Will Hill FS Florida

 

 

 

Wayne Daniels from TCU is available at 109 in all Mocks (The Beastmode pick, which I would take instead of Anthony Gray)

 

Anyway, besides Getting Bowers over Dareus. Which would be amazing, the rest of the drafts pans out mostly the same.

 

Plus I think Dontay Moch will be gone before the 3rd. Donta Hightower is there with the Bills Picking #9 instead inplace of Moch. And Mason Foster (me likely) would be there with the Bills picking #3\#4 in place of Moch.

Edited December 28, 2010 by Why So Serious?

[boyst]

I think it is all early, but I love playing with these sims.

I gave the Bills picks 1-9

1- Fairely (DE34)

2- Quinn (OLB34)

3- Sherrod (OT)

4- Amukamara (CB...even draftek wants us to have more CB's!)

5- Paterson (FS)

6- Green (WRF)

7- Bowers (DE43)

8- Dareus (DT43)

9- Rudolph (TE)

 

While it seems silly it shows us what players could be available to us and options.

[billsfan89]

The draft philosophy should be to target these positions 1- OLB 2- RT 3- MLB 4- DE 5- Tight end. I honestly believe those to be our top needs in roughly that order. We should heavily focus on the front 7 BUT fill the RT need with our top 3 picks. Also don't fear the trade up if a good talent slips a few slots go up and grab him (Not talking 1st round more so going back into the 2nd).

 

The extra 4th really helps out as far as moving up in the draft is concerned. I have to do some research as far as who is available (Because you have to adjust your draft philosophy on who are the best players available vs need) BUT this team needs Defensive Front 7 help and has two major holes on offense (RT and Tight end). You aren't going to fill them all but if you plug up 3 of them (As well as find some quality depth in later rounds) you move the team in the right direction

[BobChalmers]

The draft philosophy should be to target these positions 1- OLB 2- RT 3- MLB 4- DE 5- Tight end. I honestly believe those to be our top needs in roughly that order. We should heavily focus on the front 7 BUT fill the RT need with our top 3 picks. Also don't fear the trade up if a good talent slips a few slots go up and grab him (Not talking 1st round more so going back into the 2nd).

 

The extra 4th really helps out as far as moving up in the draft is concerned. I have to do some research as far as who is available (Because you have to adjust your draft philosophy on who are the best players available vs need) BUT this team needs Defensive Front 7 help and has two major holes on offense (RT and Tight end). You aren't going to fill them all but if you plug up 3 of them (As well as find some quality depth in later rounds) you move the team in the right direction

 

I'd put TE higher - right behind OLB and ILB.

 

I don't get all these Bowers picks - how exactly does a 270 pound DE help us get better in our 3-4 run defense??

 

Does Bowers project as an (enormous) LB or something???

[KRT88]

http://drafttek.com/new%20simulator/

 

Assuming the Vikes Lose to the Eagles on Tuesday(pussification)

 

There are 11 teams with 5 wins or less (so much for parity)

 

The 9ers play the Cards and the Lions will play the Vikes so there will be at worst\best 9 teams with 5 wins or less.

 

If the Bills beat the Jets the best\worst case scenario is the Bills pick #9

 

I'm counting that the Bungels will lose to the Ravens and the Panthers have the #1 pick locked.

 

It is possible the Broncos beat the Chargers. If the Bills lose to the Jets that would move the Bills up to the #3 pick

 

Here is a mock with the Bills picking #3:

 

1 3 Buffalo Da'Quan Bowers DE34 Clemson

2 35 Buffalo Travis Lewis ILB Oklahoma

3 67 Buffalo Dontay Moch OLB34 Nevada

4 99 Buffalo Tyron Smith OT USC

4 109 Buffalo Anthony Gray DT34 Southern Miss

5 131 Buffalo Vincent Brown WRF San Diego State

6 163 Buffalo Mario Fannin RBF Auburn

7 198 Buffalo Michael Egnew TE Missouri

 

 

Here is a mock with the Bills picking #4 (I ran this by accident)

 

1 4 Buffalo Da'Quan Bowers DE34 Clemson

2 36 Buffalo Nate Solder OT Colorado

3 68 Buffalo Dontay Moch OLB34 Nevada

4 100 Buffalo Mark Herzlich ILB Boston College

4 109 Buffalo Anthony Gray DT34 Southern Miss

5 132 Buffalo Andrew Rich FS BYU

6 164 Buffalo Edmund Gates WRF Abilene Christian

7 198 Buffalo Kenny Rowe OLB34 Oregon

 

 

Here is a mock with the Bills picking #9

 

 

1 9 Buffalo Marcell Dareus DE34 Alabama

2 41 Buffalo Nate Solder OT Colorado

3 73 Buffalo Dontay Moch OLB34 Nevada

4 105 Buffalo Mark Herzlich ILB Boston College

4 109 Buffalo Anthony Gray DT34 Southern Miss

5 137 Buffalo Vincent Brown WRF San Diego State

6 169 Buffalo Brooks Reed OLB34 Arizona

7 198 Buffalo Will Hill FS Florida

 

 

As it stands now the Bills pick #3 because Cincinnati is the only team in the league that has played a tougher schedule.

 

However, who is Denver picking at #2? They're not going after a QB and no way they let Bowers pass them, unless they trade the pick to a team who need a QB. And all this depends on Luck being in this draft!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

The draft philosophy should be to target these positions 1- OLB 2- RT 3- MLB 4- DE 5- Tight end. I honestly believe those to be our top needs in roughly that order. We should heavily focus on the front 7 BUT fill the RT need with our top 3 picks. Also don't fear the trade up if a good talent slips a few slots go up and grab him

 

Amen!

 

You're making way too much sense here so the Bills will doubtless do something else!

(I might swap DE and MLB, that's a nit and should be driven by who is available)

[1B4IDie]

I'd put TE higher - right behind OLB and ILB.

 

I don't get all these Bowers picks - how exactly does a 270 pound DE help us get better in our 3-4 run defense??

 

Does Bowers project as an (enormous) LB or something???

Yes he projects as a RushBacker in a 3-4. So OLB. But the ideal guy to be able to put a hand down and rush or stand up.

Having a primer hybrid player like that is key to a 3-4.

 

You can move him all over the field and the offense always has to adjust coverage to wherever he is.

 

It would be out of the Llammar Woodley (6-2 265), Terrell Suggs (6-3 260)mold.

 

I set TE as a need #9.

 

I don't believe we need to draft a TE. We have drafted way too many TEs.

We need to find a TE through Free Agency.

 

These are the TEs they have picked since 2004:

Year Rnd Pick Pos

2009 4 121 Shawn Nelson TE

2008 4 132 Derek Fine TE

2007 7 222 Derek Schouman TE

2005 3 86 Kevin Everett TE

2004 4 109 Tim Euhus TE

 

Most have been a waste of a pick.

 

As it stands now the Bills pick #3 because Cincinnati is the only team in the league that has played a tougher schedule.

 

However, who is Denver picking at #2? They're not going after a QB and no way they let Bowers pass them, unless they trade the pick to a team who need a QB. And all this depends on Luck being in this draft!

Good to know, I didn't see Cinci jump us on the SOS list, makes sense though with the Ravens and Steelers twice and the AFC East.

So that would mean our best case scenario is pick#2 is Denver wins and Cinci loses.

 

Here is a mock with the Bills Picking @ #2

 

1 2 Buffalo Nick Fairley DE34 Auburn

2 34 Buffalo Travis Lewis ILB Oklahoma

3 66 Buffalo Dontay Moch OLB34 Nevada

4 98 Buffalo Tyron Smith OT USC

4 109 Buffalo Anthony Gray DT34 Southern Miss

5 130 Buffalo Andrew Rich FS BYU

6 162 Buffalo Edmund Gates WRF Abilene Christian

7 198 Buffalo Kenny Rowe OLB34 Oregon

Edited December 28, 2010 by Why So Serious?

[Billy in 4C]

Interesting how not one of those mock drafts posted show us taking a QB

[AxelRipper]

Is this all with Carolina choosing Luck first? Or has it been adjusted to him not declaring?

 

Is it pretty much set that they're taking the #1 offensive player regardless of position?

[1B4IDie]

Interesting how not one of those mock drafts posted show us taking a QB

 

Its hard to represent my personal philosophy on drafting a QB in the Mock system.

If Luck is there take him. (not gonna happen)

If Fairley and Bowers are off the board in the first, I wouldn't mind Mallet or Newton being the first round pick.

 

Taking a QB after the 1st round is a wasted pick, I wouldn't think they would have any short or long term potential over Fitz, Brohm & Brown.

 

So I set the QB to lowest priority.

 

In the Mock where the Bills picked #9, Cam Newton went off the board at #6. So I wouldn't hate taking Ryan Mallet over Marcell Dareaus in that situation.

 

But Marcell Dareaus imo would be a great addition for the Bills to actually stop the run in the future, won't really be a sack artist but will improve run stuffing tremendously.

 

Is this all with Carolina choosing Luck first? Or has it been adjusted to him not declaring?

 

Is it pretty much set that they're taking the #1 offensive player regardless of position?

 

They all have Luck going #1 to Carolina

 

I used to be of the Luck will stay in college crowd, however with Singletary out in San Fran. I wouldn't be surprised if Harbaugh slides over to the 9ers.

 

If Luck is going to learn a new offensive system, why not learn one in the pros instead of college.

 

Obviously this is all conjecture until the end of January.

[bizell]

man, bowers and travis lewis would instantly supercharge our defense imo

[purple haze]

The draft philosophy should be to target these positions 1- OLB 2- RT 3- MLB 4- DE 5- Tight end. I honestly believe those to be our top needs in roughly that order. We should heavily focus on the front 7 BUT fill the RT need with our top 3 picks. Also don't fear the trade up if a good talent slips a few slots go up and grab him (Not talking 1st round more so going back into the 2nd).

 

The extra 4th really helps out as far as moving up in the draft is concerned. I have to do some research as far as who is available (Because you have to adjust your draft philosophy on who are the best players available vs need) BUT this team needs Defensive Front 7 help and has two major holes on offense (RT and Tight end). You aren't going to fill them all but if you plug up 3 of them (As well as find some quality depth in later rounds) you move the team in the right direction

 

Have you been watching these games? OLB-MLB-DE-OLB-MLB-RT. If I have to watch another Sunday of an opponent running down the Bills' throats and QB's having a couple beers while they wait for a WR to get open I'm going to jump out of a ground floor window.

Edited December 28, 2010 by purple haze

[1B4IDie]

The draft philosophy should be to target these positions 1- OLB 2- RT 3- MLB 4- DE 5- Tight end. I honestly believe those to be our top needs in roughly that order. We should heavily focus on the front 7 BUT fill the RT need with our top 3 picks. Also don't fear the trade up if a good talent slips a few slots go up and grab him (Not talking 1st round more so going back into the 2nd).

 

The extra 4th really helps out as far as moving up in the draft is concerned. I have to do some research as far as who is available (Because you have to adjust your draft philosophy on who are the best players available vs need) BUT this team needs Defensive Front 7 help and has two major holes on offense (RT and Tight end). You aren't going to fill them all but if you plug up 3 of them (As well as find some quality depth in later rounds) you move the team in the right direction

 

Moving down makes more sense in 2011. There is a ton of defensive talent that will be there in rounds 2-4. If the opportunity to trade down presents itself in 2011, it makes much more sense to get more picks in rounds 2-4, than trading many valuable picks to bring in 1 player.

[ColdBlueNorth]

Moving down makes more sense in 2011. There is a ton of defensive talent that will be there in rounds 2-4. If the opportunity to trade down presents itself in 2011, it makes much more sense to get more picks in rounds 2-4, than trading many valuable picks to bring in 1 player.

I think that Fairley is a beast and if he is there we can try to deal Stroud to a team that is running the 4-3 set that he is more suited to play in and have an instant upgrade. At 32 I think Stroud has a few good years left if he were playing in the right system. He knows the coaches here, played for them in college, and unlike Hanesworth he has tried to do what they have asked of him as a DE, but he does not fit the scheme.

 

There are lots of defensive players that grade out more towards the 2nd round so if the Bills cannot pick up that true impact player then dealing for more picks would be a good move.

[gumby]

I played around with this a little bit. In one sim it had the Bills taking Mike Hartline QB out of Kentucky in the 6th round. Interesting thing was Blaine Gabbert went undrafted. It's a fun sim to play with but I wouldn't take it too seriously.

[Koufax]

The draft philosophy should be to target these positions 1- OLB 2- RT 3- MLB 4- DE 5- Tight end. I honestly believe those to be our top needs in roughly that order.

 

No. The draft philosophy should be to get the best football players. Using some positional usefulness as a tie breaker on nearly identically rated players is fine, and I'm sure we will have some picks where it isn't clear cut and we have choices without sacrificing BPA, but rookies don't always fill a need before that need morphs into something else. While I hope we don't go RB/CB/Punter in the top three rounds, there are enough positions where we need to get better that we can just try to pick the best football player over and over again. Do this year after year and we will stop having a JV roster.

 

Last time picked Troup because that was one of our big "needs" and we failed to pick our other needs of LT and QB. Troup ended up not being a difference maker right away, and Kyle is our guy (although I am optimistic that Troup will be a good player for us). We have done fine this year at LT and QB, and have been punished with our DEs and LBs which weren't our perceived top needs on draft day. This isn't grocery shopping, this is a draft, and if we stay true to a goal of putting as much talent as possible on our roster we will be better off than any other strategy.

[Erik]

I noticed Mark Herzlich's name on a lot of the mock drafts. Maybe I am biased because I'm from B.C. but I would absolutely LOVE that pick. He was a beast before he got cancer and he wasn't even back to 100% last year. Would be a great story to boot.

[1B4IDie]

I think that Fairley is a beast and if he is there we can try to deal Stroud to a team that is running the 4-3 set that he is more suited to play in and have an instant upgrade. At 32 I think Stroud has a few good years left if he were playing in the right system. He knows the coaches here, played for them in college, and unlike Hanesworth he has tried to do what they have asked of him as a DE, but he does not fit the scheme.

 

There are lots of defensive players that grade out more towards the 2nd round so if the Bills cannot pick up that true impact player then dealing for more picks would be a good move.

Agree.

 

Basically if Fairely & Bowers are both gone, Trading down is a good option.

If Fairely & Bowers are both gone, Taking a QB wouldn't be horrible but not ideal IMO.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

The draft philosophy should be to target these positions 1- OLB 2- RT 3- MLB 4- DE 5- Tight end.

 

Having said that, epect a WR, RB, or Safety. "Best Player Available."

[Astrobot]

Interesting how not one of those mock drafts posted show us taking a QB

That is my doing. TSW decided to lower our priority for QB if we didn't get Andrew Luck.

Currently I have QB set to Priority 9 but with a grab on Luck and Fairley if they fall to us.

We can certainly discuss taking Cam Newton after Fitz's bad game vs. the Pats.

Astro