Down on Spiller? Look at McFadden.

[cjatcreek07]

Spiller has in fact been a disappointment and a bust. He might become something better, and I hope he does. Until he's shown he's a good choice, he's not a good choice.

He's not a disappointment or a bust, that is just ridiculous. When you're averaging 4.1 yards a touch and you only get the ball 5-10 times a game you're doing something right, especially for a rookie. People need to understand that it is not normal to just walk into the NFL from college and tear it up. Give the kid some freakin time before anyone else calls him a bust

Edited December 15, 2010 by LoyalToTheEnd

[tennesseeboy]

He's not a disappointment or a bust, that is just ridiculous. When you're averaging 4.1 yards a touch and you only get the ball 5-10 times a game you're doing something right, especially for a rookie. People need to understand that it is not normal to just walk into the NFL from college and tear it up. Give the kid some freakin time before anyone else calls him a bust

he is what he is. He is a low round first draft choice. One expects and is entitled to expect more (except in Buffalo recently.) Is he going to be good? I tend to think so. Is he good now? I don't see it. Will he not be a bust next year? Maybe...I hope so. But..for a number 9 pick this year...he's a bust so far.

[cjatcreek07]

We didn't draft him to come right in and be the guy. We had two running backs at the time who were more than capable starters and Gailey and Nix knew that Spiller would have to develop for a little while and get a grip of pass protection at an NFL level. I guarantee you if spiller touched the ball 20-25 times a game this year you wouldn't be thinking he's a bust

[Johnny Hammersticks]

First, there's a difference between trading down and getting a guy like Spiller at 20-30 (range for guys like Felix Jones and Chris Johnson) and taking him at 9 overall.

 

Secondly, for every Darren McFadden, there's 25-30 guys who suck their rookie year because their skills don't translate to the pros, they're injury-prone, or they have personal issues that prevent them from being good pros.

 

Basically, if they suck their rookie year, there's a greater than 50% chance they're not going to work out. By year 3, it's about 100% chance.

 

So, yes, Run DMc shows that it's not a foregone conclusion, but it's more likely than not that Spiller is not going to be worth a 9th overall pick at the very least.

 

Sounds like you've reached a sound conclusion based on solid, statistical data. So what you're saying is that there is "a greater than 50% chance" that CJ Spiller is "not going to work out" because he didn't have a good rookie year?

 

Please try not to make assertions, sighting bogus statistical data, when you really are just stating your opinion

[GaryPinC]

Spiller just needs time (&playing) to adjust to the NFL game. Early in the year he was trying to use his speed all the time and not following his blocks; he didn't understand timing and how to execute on any given play to maximize his abilities. Towards the middle of the year he had no field vision and was trying to get comfortable with following the flow of the play. This past Sunday was clear his vision and timing were better (though not there yet). He was cutting more and waiting for plays to develop, but his field vision still seems limited so he isn't comfortable yet.

 

Gailey is obviously starting to work him in more and that should continue. I think that Spiller has finally reached the point that he understands how to execute/time plays, now he needs reps so he can start to see the entire field better and really start to use his full talent. I don't think he'll break out this coming Sunday but am thinking one of the last 2 games of the year he will.

 

We'll see, some players require more patience than others.

[Bufcomments]

Spiller will be a very good player in this league. But he has to learn how to run in the NFL. Sitting back and watching Fred could be the best thing for him right now. Jackson REALLY knows how to set up his blocks and knows when to hit the go button and get up field. Plus he has earned Gailey's trust.

 

CJ will get better the more chances he gets. But right now Fred is the best RB on this team and you have to give him the ball.

 

Next year in training camp I would expect him to push for the starting RB job. But then agian I expect Fred to keep it next year as well. But in year 3 of CJ's career he should be starting , if he is not only THEN we have a problem.

[MDH]

Giving up on any player before their 3rd year is flat out stupid.

 

I agree that giving up on them is stupid but to expect more from a top 10 pick at RB is not. The guy is getting paid a ton of money to help this team. He didn't accept a contract that pays him very little the first 3 years then jumps up in value once he "understands the pro game."

 

Spiller isn't a bust but he deserves the criticism he gets at this point. Hopefully he'll turn into a superstar who defenses fear and have to gameplan around - we'll see.

[Mr. T]

I agree that giving up on them is stupid but to expect more from a top 10 pick at RB is not. The guy is getting paid a ton of money to help this team. He didn't accept a contract that pays him very little the first 3 years then jumps up in value once he "understands the pro game."

 

Spiller isn't a bust but he deserves the criticism he gets at this point. Hopefully he'll turn into a superstar who defenses fear and have to gameplan around - we'll see.

If anyone deserves criticism it is the FO and coaching staff.

 

The FO for drafting a kid 9th overall to sit behind TWO 1000 yd RBs.

 

The coaching staff for not putting him in a position to showcase his ability. Now, with Jackson as a VERY good all purpose back, it seems as though the only chance CJ receives is to give Freddy a breather. Not many backs, including very good vetereans, ever do much in that role.

Edited December 16, 2010 by Mr. T

[Psaunders]

Unfortunately, this is Maybins 2nd year and he looks like he doesn't belong on an NFL football field. I was one of the fans thinking if he picked up a few pounds and got into an OLB position in a 3-4 he would be average to possibly very good. But his physical attributes cannot do enough for how stupid and uneducated he is about the game. I just hope he can hit the books really hard this offseason. If he's here next year this time it will be because he studied hard. If he doesn't, he'll be cut.

 

So have you talked to our coaches and NFL level scouts???? because i would really like to know how you know he is stupid and educated about the the game. do you talk with him personally, are you breaking down his film, i'm not saying anything about Maybin now he a question mark and thats all he is, not many other DE's from his class have really performed yet so how about we all wait one more year before we judge him because none of us have the knowledge that NFL personnel have, just saying don't try to sound like your a pro scout.

[T master]

Starting out being 3rd on the depth chart didn't help CJ either . The kid like any one else needs time on the field to get use to the game only once in a lifetime do you get a guy that comes along like Barry Sanders or OJ .

 

Besides Thurman kept Barry on the bench in college so what does that tell you , it tells me if there's some one in front of you getting the bulk of the carries it will take a while to get up to speed Spiller will be fine !!!

[C.Biscuit97]

If anyone deserves criticism it is the FO and coaching staff.

 

The FO for drafting a kid 9th overall to sit behind TWO 1000 yd RBs.

 

The coaching staff for not putting him in a position to showcase his ability. Now, with Jackson as a VERY good all purpose back, it seems as though the only chance CJ receives is to give Freddy a breather. Not many backs, including very good vetereans, ever do much in that role.

 

 

Good thing draft picks don't just sign one year deals then.

[Mr. WEO]

Giving up on any player before their 3rd year is flat out stupid.

So let's keep the tally going here.....

 

Maybin, McCargo, Edwards? Hardy...

[todd]

Keep it coming, these posts just get better and better!

 

Spiller has in fact been a disappointment and a bust. He might become something better, and I hope he does. Until he's shown he's a good choice, he's not a good choice.

[boyst]

I think Fred gets an extra year or two since he has not been as beaten up as most 30 yr old NFL RBs get.

 

PTR

Fully agree, FJ has 606 attempts in his NFL career and will finish the year with around maybe 670-700. Most NFL backs reach about 1,000 carries and drop off significantly by the 1,200 carry mark. Jackson still has two to three servicable years to contribute to this team. Losing Lynch accelerated this significantly and it is apparent CJ might not be ready to to pick up the carries enough to pull weight off of FJ.

 

As far as CJ goes, I am not down on him. I was hoping that we would see more of his natural abilities this year. He speed has not been that impressive, yet. I think the speed of the NFL game has caught up to him a lot more then it did in NCAA D1. A rookie year is usually a great chance to see how a player can showcase their raw ability as they learn to adjust to the NFL game. I would dare say CJ has struggled in more recent games partially due to adjusting and believe that he could start to break out significantly as mid 2011, which will be just in time for the shortened season!

[K-9]

First, there's a difference between trading down and getting a guy like Spiller at 20-30 (range for guys like Felix Jones and Chris Johnson) and taking him at 9 overall.

Secondly, for every Darren McFadden, there's 25-30 guys who suck their rookie year because their skills don't translate to the pros, they're injury-prone, or they have personal issues that prevent them from being good pros.

 

Basically, if they suck their rookie year, there's a greater than 50% chance they're not going to work out. By year 3, it's about 100% chance.

 

So, yes, Run DMc shows that it's not a foregone conclusion, but it's more likely than not that Spiller is not going to be worth a 9th overall pick at the very least.

 

Are you suggesting that Spiller would have been available between picks 20-30? That's a stretch at best.

 

As for your percentages, I'm quite sure they are based on actual data backed by the requisite research to support them.

 

Or not.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Mr. WEO]

He's not a bust. But his "4.1 avg" is meaningless given how few carries he's had. By this logic, Fitz is a far better rusher than Spiller.

 

The point is that bad teams with bad offenses and two legit starters at RB don't spend a top 10 pick on another RB who they don't (it seems) intend to feature in their offense.

 

Top NFL RBs can be found in almost any round in the draft. Unless your team is absolutely stacked (or it's, like, 1980) you don't take a gadget RB in the first round (unless you were clever or fortunate enough to trade down and get picks).

Edited December 16, 2010 by Mr. WEO

[silvermike]

There are a fair number of RBs who had similarly bad first years to CJ Spiller, and went on to be very productive: Shaun Alexander, Thomas Jones, Deuce McAllister. But there's a fair number of busts in that group too - Napoleon Kaufman, Tyrone Wheatley, Trung Canidate. So I would safely say that it's too soon to tell. Going back a decade or so, it looks like a sub-500 yard healthy rookie year does give a 50% success rate.

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny/755XF

 

That's the list of players I was comparing him to - first round RBs since 1995.

[K-9]

He's not a bust. But his "4.1 avg" is meaningless given how few carries he's had. By this logic, Fitz is a far better rusher than Spiller.

 

The point is that bad teams with bad offenses and two legit starters at RB don't spend a top 10 pick on another RB who they don't (it seems) intend to feature in their offense.

 

Top NFL RBs can be found in almost any round in the draft. Unless your team is absolutely stacked (or it's, like, 1980) you don't take a gadget RB in the first round (unless you were clever or fortunate enough to trade down and get picks).

 

Yes, top RBs can be found in later rounds.

 

GREAT, HOF RBs are rarely found later than the first.

 

If you feel you have a chance to take one, you do. The Bills felt that about Spiller. It hasn't panned out yet. But I can name a bunch of greats that didn't pan out their first year.

 

Give the kid some time. He's being redshirted this year.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[silvermike]

Yes, top RBs can be found in later rounds.

 

GREAT, HOF RBs are rarely found later than the first.

 

If you feel you have a chance to take one, you do. The Bills felt that about Spiller. It hasn't panned out yet. But I can name a bunch of greats that didn't pan out their first year.

 

Give the kid some time. He's being redshirted this year.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

This is true - you can get a 1000 yard guy in the middle of the draft, but the top ten rushers in league history are all first round picks except for Curtis Martin, and he was acquired by the Jets from the Pats for a first round pick (and a third).

[RuntheDamnBall]

Look at the stats of this rookie RB. He came highly touted out of college, the Bills wasted a #1 pick on him, and he didn't start ANY games.

 

G GS Att Yds TD Lng YPC Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng

13 0 181 697 2 32 3.9 30 343 11.4 3 55

 

Only 2 TDs? 3.9 YPC? What the hell were they paying for? A few nifty big plays and not much else. And it gets worse, folks. He actually regressed to 488 yards rushing in his sophomore year and only hit 742 in his third. Top draft picks are supposed to PRODUCE.

 

Except for this guy ends up going on to five straight seasons of 1100+ yards (in 14 game campaigns), and the NFL rushing record. I'm not going to absolve the Juice of his sins, but he would not have lasted on the Bills if the whiny fans of today were running the team.

 

You don't have to be a fan of the Spiller pick - and I do agree, there were needs that could have been addressed with fine players - but calling him a bust is just stupid.