Fitz stats vs Fitz guts

[Bob in STL]

Fitz is:

 

19th in QB Rating (85.0)

9th in Passing TDs (21)

13th most INTS (11)

25th in Passing Accuracy (58.5)

24th in Yards per Attempt (6.68)

19th in Yards per Game (230)

 

These stats... are... quite frankly, pretty bad.

 

But yet, when I watch the games, I don't see a bad QB, I don't see a QB that should be replaced, I don't see a QB that is losing us football games.

 

Stats vs Guts

 

We might end up with a new QB next year if our decision makers stick with the numbers. Should be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

 

Factor in the cast he is playing with, the youth on the team, the inexperienced OL, the new coaching staff and then look at some other factors such as: running, sack avoidance, reading defenses, 3rd down play, red zone play, and leadership. When you do that he looks pretty good.

 

Finally, compare his performance to Trent Edwards and you realize he is pretty good.

Edited December 14, 2010 by Bob in STL

[Dorkington]

Interesting, looks like it has a time limit on when you can edit posts... otherwise I'd add a lot of the things you pointed out.

 

I agree with others, I think he looks better than a lot of stats say. I feel like he could improve on accuracy, but everything else is there.

[andrewsz1991]

They may not be all that good. But, even watching Eli manning yesterday. He had a sub par game and him and his brother are having sub par seasons quite frankly. I feel like being a quarterback is more your on field mentality and your leadership than your stats. Look at Kyle Orton. The Broncos are terrible, the fans want Tebow and he's close to top of the league in every statistic.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

A few more Fitzpatrick breakdowns that I found kind of interesting. Keep in mind that his QB rating is an even 85.

 

1. He is awful on 2nd downs and terrific on 3rd downs.

 

BY DOWN            CMP     ATT     YDS     CMP%     YPA     LNG     TD     INT     SACK     RAT 
1st down    80     131     901     61.1     6.88     45     10     4     4.0     94.4     
2nd down    64     122     638     52.5     5.23     54     2     4     8.0     59.4
3rd down    71     115     916     61.7     7.97     65     8     3     6.0     99.0
4th down    6     10     71     60.0     7.10     28     1     0     1.0     115.0

I mean, his 1st and 3rd stats are pretty identical, yet he takes a 25 point drop on 2nd down and suffers across the board. Comparing him to the Top-5 Rated QBs in the league (Brady, Vick, Rivers, Rodgers & Cassel) NONE of them have such a huge outlier (highest drop is 12 points for Rivers on 3rd down - 103 to 91). Comparing him to the Bottom-5 Rated QBs (Clausen, Anderson, Favre, Sanchez & Hasselbeck)...same thing. No one has such a bizarre anomaly based on downs. In fact, of all the QBs I checked (and I didn't check all of them) only Eli Manning had a similar split. He ***** himself on 3rd downs (29 point drop from 88 to 59) which IMO, is more understandable than 2nd down.

 

Breaking it down further, he is absolutely awful on 2nd and SHORT! I figured maybe his problem was that we were getting suck in 2nd and longs and he was forced to pass out of them. But look at his numbers on 2nd and <6! 50% completion, 3 YPA...uggh!

 

And then, on 3rd & 8-10, he has his best statistical split...gains 34 points on his average. Now, by nature of the circumstance, some passers will see bumps here due to the YPA since they are in a good medium of distance and completion percentage. But none of those 10 passers have anything like Fitzpatrick's except Sanchez (29 point bump). And a bunch actually go way down (Favre, Cassel, Anderson).

 

DOWN/DISTANCE    CMP     ATT     YDS     CMP%     YPA     LNG     TD     INT     SACK     RAT
2nd & 3-7    17     39     133     43.6     3.41     53     0     2     2.0     31.3     
2nd & 8-10    28     51     306     54.9     6.00     113     2     1     5.0     77.7
2nd & 11+    16     28     195     57.1     6.96     116     0     0     1.0     78.7
2nd & <6    12     24     72     50.0     3.00     33     0     2     1.0     21.5
2nd & 6+    52     98     566     53.1     5.78     253     2     2     7.0     68.7
3rd & 3-7    33     53     403     62.3     7.60     131     6     2     5.0     107.7
3rd & 8-10    18     30     320     60.0     10.67     102     2     0     1.0     118.8
3rd & 11+    15     23     156     65.2     6.78     66     0     1     0.0     66.6
3rd & <6    24     42     234     57.1     5.57     93     3     1     3.0     86.8
3rd & 6+    47     73     682     64.4     9.34     223     5     2     3.0     106.1

 

2. He does not like throwing to his right.

 

PLAY DIRECTION    CMP     ATT     YDS     CMP%     YPA     LNG     TD     INT     SACK     RAT
Right Side    35     58     319     60.3     5.50     23     1     2     0.0     66.7
Right Sideline    54     108     622     50.0     5.76     54     5     4     0.0     67.7
Left Side    42     66     566     63.6     8.58     65     2     2     0.0     88.3
Left Sideline    51     77     597     66.2     7.75     45     9     1     0.0     123.1
Middle            25     45     280     55.6     6.22     37     3     2     0.0     78.0

Besides maybe Clausen and Anderson (and they weren't nearly as uniform), I couldn't find anyone with such a clean split differential. I mean, it is clear cut that the man does better throwing across his body.

 

 

So, in my expert conclusion...I propose all we need to do to turn Ryan Fitzpatrick into Tom Brady is:

1. Run on 2nd down

2. Only call pass plays to the left.

 

GAME OVER.

 

 

Post of the week. Data, lucid conclusions, solid analysis. I hope the coaching staff did this analysis; the Bills coaches as i am sure the opponents have.

[billsfan89]

Improve the O-line and its depth and get Fitz a good tight end to throw to and I think you will see his stats pick up. Also if Fitz had a more consistent ground game that would help greatly (Which will improve with a better O-line). Also give Gailey a year of film and an off-season to get CJ Spiller involved in the offense and Fitz will improve his play.

 

All in all if you watch Fitz with your eyes you see a QB the Bills can win with. If you put more talent around him he will only stand to improve. The Bills need a few more pieces around Fitz before you can see the finished product.

[The Dean]

I agree with others, I think he looks better than a lot of stats say. I feel like he could improve on accuracy, but everything else is there.

 

 

Agreed he is better than his stats. But his lack of consistent accuracy is what is hurting many of those numbers. Unless he improves in that area, his stats will always suffer. He might lead the team to many wins and be a terrific QB, but his stats won't be great if he isn't more accurate, IMO.

 

 

Bartshan, very nice. If that is indeed true, then perhaps he only has to improve his accuracy throwing to the right, to really show a lot of improvement. I'm no trainer or QB coach, but I would think that his accuracy might be more easily improved if it involves one specific kind of throw, or category of throw, than accuracy in general.

[sir andrew]

Fitzguts. New nickname?

[The Wiz]

Fitzguts. New nickname?

Fitz-stats-rick?

[BuffaloBillsMagic1]

Fitz kind of reminds me of a QB a billion years ago for the Minn Vikings named Joe Kapp. Tough as nails and a good leader but sometimes his arm was not the most accurate and the balls sometimes wobbled. Guy was a winner. Great ledaer as Fitz seems as well.

[RuntheDamnBall]

What about rushing yards, third down completion percentage, sacks taken, and YPA on 3rd down?

+1000