Fitz stats vs Fitz guts

[Dorkington]

Fitz is:

 

19th in QB Rating (85.0)

9th in Passing TDs (21)

13th most INTS (11)

25th in Passing Accuracy (58.5)

24th in Yards per Attempt (6.68)

19th in Yards per Game (230)

 

These stats... are... quite frankly, pretty bad.

 

But yet, when I watch the games, I don't see a bad QB, I don't see a QB that should be replaced, I don't see a QB that is losing us football games.

 

Stats vs Guts

 

We might end up with a new QB next year if our decision makers stick with the numbers. Should be interesting to see how this plays out.

[muggins]

Fitz is:

 

19th in QB Rating (85.0)

9th in Passing TDs (21)

13th most INTS (11)

25th in Passing Accuracy (58.5)

24th in Yards per Attempt (6.68)

19th in Yards per Game (230)

 

These stats... are... quite frankly, pretty bad.

 

But yet, when I watch the games, I don't see a bad QB, I don't see a QB that should be replaced, I don't see a QB that is losing us football games.

 

Stats vs Guts

 

We might end up with a new QB next year if our decision makers stick with the numbers. Should be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

They aren't bad with the patchwork offensive line we have and a first year coach. I'd expect them to be worse. Plus, he wasn't even the starter at the beginning of the year!

[Coach Tuesday]

What about rushing yards, third down completion percentage, sacks taken, and YPA on 3rd down?

[Jerry Jabber]

Fitz is:

 

19th in QB Rating (85.0)

9th in Passing TDs (21)

13th most INTS (11)

25th in Passing Accuracy (58.5)

24th in Yards per Attempt (6.68)

19th in Yards per Game (230)

 

These stats... are... quite frankly, pretty bad.

 

But yet, when I watch the games, I don't see a bad QB, I don't see a QB that should be replaced, I don't see a QB that is losing us football games.

 

Stats vs Guts

 

We might end up with a new QB next year if our decision makers stick with the numbers. Should be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

IMO, Fitz has been improving and with more time, will continue to improve. Remember, Fitz was getting reps with the 2nd team in training camp & through the preseason. He was the backup to Trent Edwards for the first 2 games of the regular season. Also, Bills do not have a true #1 WR and don't have a solid pass-catching TE. So, with all of that, I'd say Fitz is doing very well with the tools he has to work with. It's unknown at this point if Easley can become the Bills #1 WR or if Steve Johnson can, but I'd like to see what Fitz and Gailey can do once the Bills have a real #1 WR & a good pass catching TE in place.

[Dorkington]

What about rushing yards, third down completion percentage, sacks taken, and YPA on 3rd down?

 

I don't have those stats off hand, but I'd love to see them if you do!

[Dan]

Fitz is:

 

19th in QB Rating (85.0)

9th in Passing TDs (21)

13th most INTS (11)

25th in Passing Accuracy (58.5)

24th in Yards per Attempt (6.68)

19th in Yards per Game (230)

 

These stats... are... quite frankly, pretty bad.

I wouldn't say they're Pretty Bad. I'd say, they're Pretty Average. He's right at middle of the pack overall.

[dgrid]

I do like the TD/INT ratio 21/11

better than you'd think w/ his occasional wild throws.

[The Big Cat]

LOL pass percentage = accuracy.

 

Never mind the fact that one of his favorite targets is close to the top of the league in drops.

[1billsfan]

He's 7th in touchdown percentage which is probably the most important stat in gauging a QBs performance and production over a period of time.

[Dorkington]

He's 7th in touchdown percentage which is probably the most important stat in gauging a QBs performance and production over a period of time.

 

Awesome! Would love to see where you got that from, so I could add that and more to the first post.

 

LOL pass percentage = accuracy.

 

Never mind the fact that one of his favorite targets is close to the top of the league in drops.

 

So if he shouldn't be penalized for a receiver's drops, should he be rewarded for a receiver's good catch of a bad throw? I have a feeling both happen and they basically offset each other.

[BillsObserver]

LOL pass percentage = accuracy.

 

Never mind the fact that one of his favorite targets is close to the top of the league in drops.

 

Funny how things like this are left out

[School 62]

Funny how things like this are left out

The stats are important and I appreciate the work put into finding them and sharing them. The intangibles which impress me are his ability to run, but wisdom about when to take off. I like his willingness to block. He seems so resilient. He blows a pass or gets his head knocked off and he is right back in the fight. Under his leadership the O line seems to commit fewer penalties and when he is in charge in the red zone, I no longer assume that the best we can hope for is a field goal, if the other guys don't intercept. In a phrase he is steady while Edwards shook.

[Van_phelaN1]

They aren't bad with the patchwork offensive line we have and a first year coach. I'd expect them to be worse. Plus, he wasn't even the starter at the beginning of the year!

 

I agree. It is up to the coaching staff to determine if his numbers are more a result of a struggling offense with injuries or his personal inconsistencies. It would be interesting to see how many "drops" the receivers have been credited with. Either way, you can't go on just stats or just guts, he has to have both.

[CardinalScotts]

What about rushing yards, third down completion percentage, sacks taken, and YPA on 3rd down?

 

You just hit on it ...the third down plays, and throws he has made has allowed this team to compete. Also the rushing yards are a lost stat

[1billsfan]

Awesome! Would love to see where you got that from, so I could add that and more to the first post.

 

 

 

So if he shouldn't be penalized for a receiver's drops, should he be rewarded for a receiver's good catch of a bad throw? I have a feeling both happen and they basically offset each other.

 

 

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2010/passing.htm

 

 

Just click on the TD% header.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Fitz is:

 

19th in QB Rating (85.0)

9th in Passing TDs (21)

13th most INTS (11)

25th in Passing Accuracy (58.5)

24th in Yards per Attempt (6.68)

19th in Yards per Game (230)

 

These stats... are... quite frankly, pretty bad.

 

But yet, when I watch the games, I don't see a bad QB, I don't see a QB that should be replaced, I don't see a QB that is losing us football games.

 

Stats vs Guts

 

We might end up with a new QB next year if our decision makers stick with the numbers. Should be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

 

YPA is hurt by incompletions, and QB rating I think double dips as there is a factor for YPA and Comp%. So TD and INT's being good, it really comes down to completion % for him. If they watch the film and say most of the passes were there, and it was the right read, WR didn't make the play, he has a great case. If they look at the film and decide the ball just isn't getting there when it should be and there is no way to coach him up, then it's not a great case.

 

My impression is he seems to be able to make all the throws with his feet set so I believe the coaching staff should be able to help get his comp% higher so he can stick around.

 

Consider that Phillip Rivers had a QB rating of 82.4 in 16 starts (2007) despite good seasons before and after, Vick Averages 80 for his career and never got higher than 82 until Philly, 5 of Brady's 11 years he was in the mid 80's, Favre's Career rating is 86, Jim Kelly's was 84.4, Dan Marino 86.4. Even the great Peyton Manning was under 85 in 2001.

[The Big Cat]

Awesome! Would love to see where you got that from, so I could add that and more to the first post.

 

 

 

So if he shouldn't be penalized for a receiver's drops, should he be rewarded for a receiver's good catch of a bad throw? I have a feeling both happen and they basically offset each other.

 

Fitz is as accurate as he is inaccurate.

[PromoTheRobot]

Jimmy Clausen = 1 TD in 10 games. The Bills blew it by not taking him #1. But hey, maybe Clausen will help them land their next franchise QB?

 

PTR

Edited December 14, 2010 by PromoTheRobot

[bartshan-83]

A few more Fitzpatrick breakdowns that I found kind of interesting. Keep in mind that his QB rating is an even 85.

 

1. He is awful on 2nd downs and terrific on 3rd downs.

 

BY DOWN	        CMP 	ATT 	YDS 	CMP% 	YPA 	LNG 	TD 	INT 	SACK 	RAT 
1st down	80 	131 	901 	61.1 	6.88 	45 	10 	4 	4.0 	94.4 	
2nd down	64 	122 	638 	52.5 	5.23 	54 	2 	4 	8.0 	59.4
3rd down	71 	115 	916 	61.7 	7.97 	65 	8 	3 	6.0 	99.0
4th down	6 	10 	71 	60.0 	7.10 	28 	1 	0 	1.0 	115.0

I mean, his 1st and 3rd stats are pretty identical, yet he takes a 25 point drop on 2nd down and suffers across the board. Comparing him to the Top-5 Rated QBs in the league (Brady, Vick, Rivers, Rodgers & Cassel) NONE of them have such a huge outlier (highest drop is 12 points for Rivers on 3rd down - 103 to 91). Comparing him to the Bottom-5 Rated QBs (Clausen, Anderson, Favre, Sanchez & Hasselbeck)...same thing. No one has such a bizarre anomaly based on downs. In fact, of all the QBs I checked (and I didn't check all of them) only Eli Manning had a similar split. He ***** himself on 3rd downs (29 point drop from 88 to 59) which IMO, is more understandable than 2nd down.

 

Breaking it down further, he is absolutely awful on 2nd and SHORT! I figured maybe his problem was that we were getting suck in 2nd and longs and he was forced to pass out of them. But look at his numbers on 2nd and <6! 50% completion, 3 YPA...uggh!

 

And then, on 3rd & 8-10, he has his best statistical split...gains 34 points on his average. Now, by nature of the circumstance, some passers will see bumps here due to the YPA since they are in a good medium of distance and completion percentage. But none of those 10 passers have anything like Fitzpatrick's except Sanchez (29 point bump). And a bunch actually go way down (Favre, Cassel, Anderson).

 

DOWN/DISTANCE	CMP 	ATT 	YDS 	CMP% 	YPA 	LNG 	TD 	INT 	SACK 	RAT
2nd & 3-7	17 	39 	133 	43.6 	3.41 	53 	0 	2 	2.0 	31.3 	
2nd & 8-10	28 	51 	306 	54.9 	6.00 	113 	2 	1 	5.0 	77.7
2nd & 11+	16 	28 	195 	57.1 	6.96 	116 	0 	0 	1.0 	78.7
2nd & <6	12 	24 	72 	50.0 	3.00 	33 	0 	2 	1.0 	21.5
2nd & 6+	52 	98 	566 	53.1 	5.78 	253 	2 	2 	7.0 	68.7
3rd & 3-7	33 	53 	403 	62.3 	7.60 	131 	6 	2 	5.0 	107.7
3rd & 8-10	18 	30 	320 	60.0 	10.67 	102 	2 	0 	1.0 	118.8
3rd & 11+	15 	23 	156 	65.2 	6.78 	66 	0 	1 	0.0 	66.6
3rd & <6	24 	42 	234 	57.1 	5.57 	93 	3 	1 	3.0 	86.8
3rd & 6+	47 	73 	682 	64.4 	9.34 	223 	5 	2 	3.0 	106.1

 

2. He does not like throwing to his right.

 

PLAY DIRECTION	CMP 	ATT 	YDS 	CMP% 	YPA 	LNG 	TD 	INT 	SACK 	RAT
Right Side	35 	58 	319 	60.3 	5.50 	23 	1 	2 	0.0 	66.7
Right Sideline	54 	108 	622 	50.0 	5.76 	54 	5 	4 	0.0 	67.7
Left Side	42 	66 	566 	63.6 	8.58 	65 	2 	2 	0.0 	88.3
Left Sideline	51 	77 	597 	66.2 	7.75 	45 	9 	1 	0.0 	123.1
Middle	        25 	45 	280 	55.6 	6.22 	37 	3 	2 	0.0 	78.0

Besides maybe Clausen and Anderson (and they weren't nearly as uniform), I couldn't find anyone with such a clean split differential. I mean, it is clear cut that the man does better throwing across his body.

 

 

So, in my expert conclusion...I propose all we need to do to turn Ryan Fitzpatrick into Tom Brady is:

1. Run on 2nd down

2. Only call pass plays to the left.

 

GAME OVER.

 

[Spiderweb]

Fitz is as accurate as he is inaccurate.

 

....and that summation is dead on the money.