Obviously Bills Are Going Defense With First Pick

[DanInUticaTampa]

Truth is, there are a few gems of QBs in later rounds. But if you look at the very best QBs in this league, MOST of them were taken in the 1st round. You got peyton, rivers, rodgers, big ben, matt ryan, Vick, etc. You want an elite QB? You can get one outside of round 1, but your BEST chance is to grab one in round 1.

 

 

And yeah, of course there are a lot of first round busts as well. And the people that use this argument to say that we shouldn't draft a QB in the first round say it with such authority with "the draft is a crapshoot! don't do it!" type nonsense. Really? the draft is a crapshoot and THAT is your reasoning for not drafting a QB? They say it like drafting a DE or a LB is a surefire, can't miss pick or close to it. Have they SEEN our first round picks? We have missed on so many first round picks the last decade, and only one of them was a QB. People who don't want to pick a QB because of their Bust potential are being ridiculous. Seriously, there are a lot of first round busts every year that are not QBs. The QBs are just the ones that get the most attention.

 

Odds of us picking Luck and him being a bust is just as likely as us picking up a DT and him turning into a mcargo, or picking an LT and him turning out to be williams. That is the facts.

 

 

As far as luck, he might not even be available. But IF we get him, I would feel very confident in that pick. Nix was part of the chargers when they grabbed both brees and rivers... so he must have some decent idea on what to look for in a young QB. Also, he has personally scouted Luck more than once, so he should have a good idea with first hand knowledge of luck. Nix might not be a great GM, but he is one hell of a scout. Since he personally scouted Luck, so if we pick him, he must be worth it. So personally, it might be the first time I would really trust them with a first round pick, if they like him.

 

And personally, I have a bad feeling we can expect another spiller type pick and drafting evan's future replacement. Seems natural since last year we had too many RBs, so we drafted an RB. I bet this year, we have too many WRs, so we draft one early. Then trade lee midseason or trade him in october. If we don't get luck, then I would like defense of course, but I have a bad feeling it is going to go a way we don't want.

[cage]

 

R1 - 16, Vick(x), Rivers(x), Rodgers(x), Roethlisberger(x), Flacco(x), PManning(x), Ryan(x), EManning, Cutler, Freeman, Campbell, Smith, Bradford, Palmer, McNabb, Sanchez

R2 - 4, Brees(x), Henne, Favre, Clausen

R3 - 0

R4 - 3, Garrard, Schaub, Orton

R5 - 0

R6 - 3, Brady(x), Hasselbeck, Anderson

R7 - 2, Cassel, Fitzpatrick

UD - 3, Romo, Kitna, Hill

 

 

More stats on round 1... Vick(x), PManning(x), EManning, Smith, Bradford, Palmer

 

There's only a 33% hit rate on being able to pick #1 overall. All 6 of these guys were chosen first. Perhaps Sam Bradford ups the % to 50% in a couple years, but that still is an indictment of the QB selection process.

 

There's not a person on the planet who can stand up and say that they could guarantee a success rate for drafting NFL QBs... therein lies the massive problem that teams have. How to get that one guy that you can build the rest of the team around.

 

 

R1 - 16, Vick(x), Rivers(x), Rodgers(x), Roethlisberger(x), Flacco(x), PManning(x), Ryan(x)

R2 - 4, Brees(x)

R6 - 3, Brady(x)

 

 

Adding more uncertainty to the process. Of the 9 guys that I '(x)'ed as "Franchise" QBs, three of them were not selected aggressively.

- Rodgers dropped way down to 24th in the first round was projected in Mocks as a top 5 pick

- Brees dropped to the 2nd round when he was projected as a possible top 10 pick

- Brady lasted 6 rounds and I'll repeat was the luckiest draft pick of all time

 

So even among the measly 9 Franchise QBs, a significant portion of the league dismissed as they were being selected.

 

... tough business indeed!

[BuffaloBaumer]

More stats on round 1... Vick(x), PManning(x), EManning, Smith, Bradford, Palmer

 

There's only a 33% hit rate on being able to pick #1 overall. All 6 of these guys were chosen first. Perhaps Sam Bradford ups the % to 50% in a couple years, but that still is an indictment of the QB selection process.

 

There's not a person on the planet who can stand up and say that they could guarantee a success rate for drafting NFL QBs... therein lies the massive problem that teams have. How to get that one guy that you can build the rest of the team around.

 

 

 

Adding more uncertainty to the process. Of the 9 guys that I '(x)'ed as "Franchise" QBs, three of them were not selected aggressively.

- Rodgers dropped way down to 24th in the first round was projected in Mocks as a top 5 pick

- Brees dropped to the 2nd round when he was projected as a possible top 10 pick

- Brady lasted 6 rounds and I'll repeat was the luckiest draft pick of all time

 

So even among the measly 9 Franchise QBs, a significant portion of the league dismissed as they were being selected.

 

... tough business indeed!

 

Great info indeed....

[mattsox]

Tell it to Nix and Gailey not me...If they like Newton and he's there when we Pick he'll be a Buffalo Bill...It's really that simple...

 

Agreed. I don't think they draft for need. They draft best player available. If it's another RB, I wouldn't doubt they'd draft him.

[coldstorage5]

Your point is well taken, but Brady was a 6th rounder, and I belive Romo was undrafted...

Warner was a NFLE, Free Agent,... Come on man

[RuntheDamnBall]

Tell it to Nix and Gailey not me...If they like Newton and he's there when we Pick he'll be a Buffalo Bill...It's really that simple...

And if they like Betty White and she's there when they pick, she'll be a Buffalo Bill, too. That's about how much weight that statement carries.

 

I just think you look at a guy with Camarcus's history of seeking privilege, along with one great season of starting, and say "buyer beware."

 

Isn't this exactly the kind of pick that Nix hinted he WON'T make, looking in Aaron Maybin's direction?

[cage]

Would an entirely different strategy work? I've been talking about 9 players who today would be considered Franchise QBs

 

R1 - Vick(x), Rivers(x), Rodgers(x), Roethlisberger(x), Flacco(x), PManning(x), Ryan(x)

R2 - Brees(x)

R6 - Brady(x)

 

What would it take to target one of the younger ones, that still have 8+ years left... Rivers, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Flacco or Ryan

 

Could any of them be had in a trade? Fitzpatrick plus 2 first rounders, this year's will be a top 7 most likely. We need a TE and maybe RT, but otherwise our offense is greatly improved. We obviously need defenders, which would be day 1 picks plus target 1-2 FA

 

Is that a good strategy?

Would you make a trade like that?

Would anyone trade with us?

Edited December 13, 2010 by cage

[JPicc2114]

The Bills attempted to draft a QB in the first round and failed miserably. JP lossman.

[ColdBlueNorth]

Never? What about Wood, Bell, Levitre, Hangman, and Urbik? Heck throw in Howard, who looks like a serviceable backup, and Wrotto, who may be the RT of the future.

I agree that they have some gems and some guys who you can plug in on the line. I would like to see the line show a bit more ability to get some push in the running game (although I liked the way we finished out the game yesterday). Whether that calls for tweaking positions a bit, giving the existing lineup time to gel, or getting some mauler in the draft... I actually trust this staff to get-er done.

[Johnny Hammersticks]

I highly doubt that the Bills will draft a QB in round 1, purely because (IMO) there will not be one worth taking at our draft position. In fact, I really can't see them taking a QB before round 4. This team has too many needs to fill, and we NEED to address DE, OLB, OT, and TE before we even consider adding another "project QB."

[RuntheDamnBall]

The Bills attempted to draft a QB in the first round and failed miserably. JP lossman.

Let that be a lesson to you, son: never try.

[yungmack]

I don't have much confidence in the Bills F.O. bringing in any quality O line people. They have just never been able to do it. And

look how bad the D line draft has been.

Repeat after me: "This is not the same front office as before, this is not the same front office as before, this is...."

 

Chan clearly knows how to coach these Qbs and although Fitz is the starter next year, Chan will pick the future QB in 2 or 3. At this point, I don't even care which one he picks because Chan obviously knows the type of guy that works. This will be the first time in his career (I believe) where he can hand pick his student. I think this means nothing but good things as they load up the lines in FA and the draft this year.

Solid point.

 

I am not sold on Bell at all. He got beat on the play that resulted in the fumble. I think Chan has come up with an offense tailored to cover up the OL weakness. Bell is serviceable against average

DE's but struggles mightily against anyone with any talent."

Joe Thomas was picked in the top of the draft and is regarded as one of the better LTs in the league. And Arthur Moats beat him for a crucial play. Guess Cleveland had better draft a LT to replace Thomas.

[Doc]

Joe Thomas was picked in the top of the draft and is regarded as one of the better LTs in the league. And Arthur Moats beat him for a crucial play. Guess Cleveland had better draft a LT to replace Thomas.

Beat me to it.

[eball]

With Gailey's coaching, Fitz is clearly capable of being a high-level starter for the next 4-5 years. I am completely fine with the Bills focusing on LB, DE, and OL in next year's draft (and FA).

[DanInUticaTampa]

And if they like Betty White and she's there when they pick, she'll be a Buffalo Bill, too. That's about how much weight that statement carries.

 

No. Betty White doesn't qualify for the draft. If they like her, they can sign her as a FA. But she aint going to be in the Draft.

[KOKBILLS]

And if they like Betty White and she's there when they pick, she'll be a Buffalo Bill, too. That's about how much weight that statement carries.

 

I just think you look at a guy with Camarcus's history of seeking privilege, along with one great season of starting, and say "buyer beware."

 

Isn't this exactly the kind of pick that Nix hinted he WON'T make, looking in Aaron Maybin's direction?

 

I hear what you're saying...But you've got one player who was a one hit wonder as a DE in the Big Ten and another who was All-World at the QB position and CLEARLY the best Player in College Football...There is a difference between how they look at a DE and how they look at a 6-6 Heisman Trophy winning QB out of the SEC...You know as well as I do, regardless of what Nix has said, they're going to look at Newton differently...That may be good or bad for Newton...I'm not sure...I'm just saying, if they like him and he's there, they're going to take him...

 

And I'm not saying I want the Bills to Draft Newton either...I am saying it's a HUGE possibility...

 

I will go on record right now and say I'm dead set against them Drafting Betty White...

[Bills(70)]

VERY true...

 

Thing is if you had a re-Draft all of those guys would go high in the 1st Round...Brady, Montana and Favre would go #1 overall...So while it's true that great, Hall Of Fame QB's can be had outside the 1st Round, it's also true that the reason for that is crappy Scouting throughout the league...I often here "no one could have know this one or that one was going to be great." Well...Is it not their job to know?...Just saying...

 

 

 

Your logic would apply to any position outside of QB...No offense but I really can't understand how Fans of the NFL don't get this...QB is never looked at in the same light as other positions...Unless QB is a clear and obvious strength on your Team there is always the potential that you will take a QB high if the right one is available and your FO loves the guy...How in the world has this fact gotten lost on NFL Fans?...I just don't get it? And yes there is most definitely a chance that the QB you Pick will be a bust...It's probably a higher chance than most other positions...It's classic risk vs reward stuff though...Most Teams will risk the high pick, assuming they do not have a Franchise-type in house, if they think the potential reward is a Franchise guy...I swear to Y'all it really is that simple...

 

So the only question you need to ask yourself is this...Do Nix and Gailey think Fitz is a Franchise QB? Cause that is the only question that matters in this discussion...If the answer is yes they will more than likely go Defense in the 1st Round...If the answer is no, and they really like a QB that is available when they Pick, they WILL take that QB...Period...End of story...It wont matter if we have zero LB's and DE's on the roster at the time...They will take that QB...

None of what you write here is remotely correct, true or accurate.

If you had a re-draft of those QB's mentioned, they would fall where they fell to begin with because scouts (contrary to your beliefs) have basically assessed these players as such due to their performances in college combined with the projected outlook of progression for those QB's.

Scouts had absolutely zero to do with those QB's success. Coaching, Offensive philosophy and game plan, type of offensive, talent around those QB's and patience had everthing to do with thier individual developments.

 

QB us consistantly overlooked at the draft, depending on which is the greater need at a given position, type of system or scheme that is being run or F.O. preferrence. This logic you use makes no sense once again, given the fact that QB's are drafted from round 1 to the end of the draft. No fact has been lost on the fanbase, you, apparantly, are just used to the last 15 years or so of the Bills.

 

Whether or not Gailey and Nix believe Fitz is a franchise QB is completely irrelavent to who they will decide to choose on draft day.

Fitz has already proven he can play, and although I'm no fan of Fitz, the driving factor for Gailey and Nix is going to be positions of "NEED". Do they need that franchise QB this draft if Luck is taken before they pick? Of course not.

 

Like the author of the OP said, they'll go defense. They know what they need to improve the teams overall performance, and right now, QB isn't critical, defense is, specifically OLB and DE.

[DrFishfinder]

Chan clearly knows how to coach these Qbs and although Fitz is the starter next year, Chan will pick the future QB in 2 or 3. At this point, I don't even care which one he picks because Chan obviously knows the type of guy that works. This will be the first time in his career (I believe) where he can hand pick his student. I think this means nothing but good things as they load up the lines in FA and the draft this year.

 

Don't count out Levi Brown.

[3rdand12]

CJ was the best player out there by the F O statement last draft. We all still question that i think. Well alot of us anyways.

I do not think they will use that attitude again. Or explanation i suppose.

I think they will draft for what system they are trying to put in place. We know they want a franchise qb, but is the best one for us available at this pick or even this year.

They are changing the defense and do not have the personnel do make that a solid 3-4. We have complained alot about George E early on but i can see he is working it now.

I vote defensive players.

Also, will we see Levi this season?

[offyourocker]

Obviously the bills never do the obvious