Polian admits mistake in drafting undersized passrusher instead of LT

[Ghost of Rob Johnson]

I wish folks would stop calling it a "new regime." It's a new coaching staff, and a GM who is in his second stint with this organization and knows how it operates.

It's his first stint as GM with this organization and as the main decision maker, therefore he's new. Doug Whaley, assistant GM, is also new.

[Coach Tuesday]

It's his first stint as GM with this organization and as the main decision maker, therefore he's new. Doug Whaley, assistant GM, is also new.

 

Whaley is in charge of pro personnel, which is interesting - it isn't clear what input he'll have on draft day, and, in any event, Nix has made clear that he doesn't believe in making a splash in free agency.

 

And some would argue that "the main decision maker" is, and has always been, Mr. Wilson.

[....lybob]

The amazing thing about the draft is that about 50% of the geniuses drafting would do better taking their picks from a copy of Street and Smith or ProFootball weekly NFL draft edition.

 

The only explanation I can think of is that they suffer from information overload and over think most of the picks.

[DanInUticaTampa]

Whaley is in charge of pro personnel, which is interesting - it isn't clear what input he'll have on draft day, and, in any event, Nix has made clear that he doesn't believe in making a splash in free agency.

 

And some would argue that "the main decision maker" is, and has always been, Mr. Wilson.

 

They did bring in a couple decent free agents, but they are both on IR now. It isn't crazy to think that they won't fill at least 2-3 holes via free agency.

 

I think now that Chan has seen this team more, he is going to be asking for a lot, so I expect more activity than last year as long as the free agency period isn't turned completly upside down.

 

I just don't think that it is fair to say nix/whaley is the same as levy, guy, and danahoe. Of course, modrack is still there, which sucks. And that cornell green signing sure was a nightmare. But at least when he didn't work, they released him. Same with hardy.

 

 

Nix has done a lot of things I don't like, but so far I like what chan has done on offense, they seem to scrap players that don't work, the kelsey extention (though I still don't like it) looks a lot better than before, free agents davis/edwards looked good, etc.

 

I doubt that they have the ability to put together a superbowl team (or even a team that will make it far in the playoffs) during their stay in buffalo, but this doesn't seem like the front office of the bills the last 10 years. The one thing that still bothers me most is that cornell green signing and modrak still being there. But those are really the only two things that reek of the former bills.

Edited December 7, 2010 by DanInUticaTampa

[San Jose Bills Fan]

The amazing thing about the draft is that about 50% of the geniuses drafting would do better taking their picks from a copy of Street and Smith or ProFootball weekly NFL draft edition.

 

The only explanation I can think of is that they suffer from information overload and over think most of the picks.

I have to agree more than disagree with you. That's not to say, of course that teams shouldn't scout or trust their scouts. But I think your point is valid…information is only as good as the decisions you make based on that information.

 

They did bring in a couple decent free agents, but they are both on IR now. It isn't crazy to think that they won't fill at least 2-3 holes via free agency.

 

I think now that Chan has seen this team more, he is going to be asking for a lot, so I expect more activity than last year as long as the free agency period isn't turned completly upside down.

 

I just don't think that it is fair to say nix/whaley is the same as levy, guy, and danahoe. Of course, modrack is still there, which sucks. And that cornell green signing sure was a nightmare. But at least when he didn't work, they released him. Same with hardy.

 

 

Nix has done a lot of things I don't like, but so far I like what chan has done on offense, they seem to scrap players that don't work, the kelsey extention (though I still don't like it) looks a lot better than before, free agents davis/edwards looked good, etc.

 

I doubt that they have the ability to put together a superbowl team (or even a team that will make it far in the playoffs) during their stay in buffalo, but this doesn't seem like the front office of the bills the last 10 years. The one thing that still bothers me most is that cornell green signing and modrak still being there. But those are really the only two things that reek of the former bills.

Agree totally. I just refuse to dwell on earlier mistakes. For one thing, it's just crying over spilt milk. Successful people don't dwell in the past, under any circumstances.

 

I'm gonna give Nix/Whaley/Gailey a fair shake. I understand lots of discouraged Bills fans not giving them the benefit of the doubt but I'm going to do just that.

 

They have a clean slate with me.

[bizell]

polian should have never cut ryan diem. that was a huge mistake.

[TPS]

If there is anything to knock in Nix draft....it was that he immediately drafted Spiller instead of using some of his allotted draft time to see what trade down options there were....

 

Now...maybe there wasnt anything viable as a trade down without totally raping us.....and maybe they really liked Spiller.....but we could have gotten that pick in with 1 minute left to go in our allotted draft time and Spiller would have still been ours.

 

And they did this with virtually every draft pick that day......If I am Nix I am looking at all trade down scenarios in every round to see if we cant improve a position.

 

And I have absolutely NO problem with the drafting spiller.....Jackson is not a young running back....we didn't know what was going on with Lynch at the time......and RB's get hurt all the time because of the physical position they play.....not to mention that Spiller is loaded with talent.

IF, and it's a big IF at this point, the Spiller pick turns out to be a mistake, the only blame that Nix would take is for letting Gailey have his way on this pick--and, one would assume, the head coach has the most influence. Gailey wanted Spiller badly having coached against him.

[Stealth]

polian should have never cut ryan diem. that was a huge mistake.

 

? Ryan Diem is their starting rt

[Coach Tuesday]

I have to agree more than disagree with you. That's not to say, of course that teams shouldn't scout or trust their scouts. But I think your point is valid…information is only as good as the decisions you make based on that information.

 

 

Agree totally. I just refuse to dwell on earlier mistakes. For one thing, it's just crying over spilt milk. Successful people don't dwell in the past, under any circumstances.

 

I'm gonna give Nix/Whaley/Gailey a fair shake. I understand lots of discouraged Bills fans not giving them the benefit of the doubt but I'm going to do just that.

 

They have a clean slate with me.

 

I know, that's one of the mantras around here. You can't complain about anything that has happened up until now, because by definition it's "in the past." And you can't argue that things won't improve, because then you're trying to "predict the future," which no one can do. Ergo, no one is allowed to gripe. Yet we're 2-10, we wasted a high first round pick on a player who doesn't see the field, and the "new regime" had a plan for this season that did not include any passrushers or a competent right tackle. Their QB, who seems to be the best part about this season, wasn't named the starter and might have been in danger of being released outright in the preseason. I can understand giving Nix and Gailey a "clean slate," but the results thus far have not been very encouraging.

[bizell]

? Ryan Diem is their starting rt

frick meant ryan lilja. who now plays for the chiefs.

[Mr_Blizzard]

Seems like from the comments under the article that Colts fans aren't too happy with Polian's drafts of late.

 

One problem with winning - the critics start wanting "style points". Wins don't count; they have to be dominating wins. Everything gets picked apart because some fans have no lives, so they obsess about every aspect of the team. Like - the long snapper is undersized; why hasn't the front office addressed this??

 

True, the Colts are not the team they were a few years ago. But the injury bug has taken a toll on both Manning's receivers and his protection.

 

I'm not surprised Polian admitted to a mistake; he's pretty much always spoken his mind.

[The Senator]

You can "what if" yourself to death when following the Bills. One of biggest draft mistakes the Bills made over the past couple of years is taking Maybin instead of Michael Oher, especially since the recent trading of Peters. With an OL of Oher, Levitre, Hangardner, Wood and Bell the Bills would have had the line solidified, and then other needs could have been addressedd.

 

Don't give up on the Spiller pick. I think you are being premature in your assessment. The right way to make a fair assessment is to give it at least 2-3 yrs before concluding anything. Sometimes what you intially consider to be an average draft over time turns out to be a very good draft. On the other hand, sometimes when you first think you had an exceptional draft it could turn out to be a big dud.

I was ripping my hair out and screaming out loud when we passed on Oher...

 

The Senator, April 2009

 

 

I was ripping my hair out and screaming out loud when we passed on Bulaga...

 

The Senator, April 2010

 

 

If you see a screaming bald guy walking down the street this April with 2 fistfuls of hair, it'll mean we didn't draft Gabe Carimi.

[robertpaul49]

I was surprised by the Spiller pick; however, he was the highest rating running back in the draft. It seems like he will be more of a whitner pick than a Maybin pick at this point. The jury is still out on Nix, but he is definitely better than the Bills have had since Donahue.

[JohnC]

I was ripping my hair out and screaming out loud when we passed on Oher...

 

The Senator, April 2009

 

 

I was ripping my hair out and screaming out loud when we passed on Bulaga...

 

The Senator, April 2010

 

 

If you see a screaming bald guy walking down the street this April with 2 fistfuls of hair, it'll mean we didn't draft Gabe Carimi.

 

A couple of years ago a scout or NFL analyst was talking about the Buffalo Bills prior to the draft. He was asked what he would recommend for a team such as the Bills which had so many needs. His response (similar to yours) was to address the OL as a starting point and then build from there. He made the point that it made more sense to him to bulk up and upgrade the OL and then when you add the skill position players you are placing them in a better situation to succeed.

 

A couple of years ago when we traded Peters we used the first pick from the Eagles to acquire Woods. If our first pick would have been used to draft Oher, our second pick was Levitre. If you factor in the development of Bell you now have the making of a high caliber line. We let the oppotunity slip away to have an exceptional draft and a very purposeful draft strategy. Instead, we took Maybin which set the franchise back, again.

 

If we could get Gabe Carmini in the second round I would be more than happy. And your comb would certainly have more to work with.

Edited December 8, 2010 by JohnC

[The Senator]

A couple of years ago a scout or NFL analyst was talking about the Buffalo Bills prior to the draft. He was asked what he would recommend for a team such as the Bills which had so many needs. His response (similar to yours) was to address the OL as a starting point and then build from there. He made the point that it made more sense to him to bulk up and upgrade the OL and then when you add the skill position players you are placing them in a better situation to succeed.

 

A couple of years ago when we traded Peters we used the first pick from the Eagles to acquire Woods. If our first pick would have been used to draft Oher, our second pick was Levitre. If you factor in the development of Bell you now have the making of a high caliber line. We let the oppotunity slip away to have an exceptional draft and a very purposeful draft strategy. Instead, we took Maybin which set the franchise back, again.

 

If we could get Gabe Carmini in the second round I would be more than happy. And your comb would certainly have more to work with.

 

Appreciate your concern for my pate, John, but Carimi in the 2nd is a pipe dream.

 

After the Rose Bowl, I expect his stock to shoot way up - he'll go in the top 10 of round one...

Matt Hinton aka Dr. Saturday has a post up regarding senior left tackle Gabe Carimi's case for the Heisman. Hinton was especially impressed by Carimi's performance against stud defensive ends Adrian Clayborn, Cameron Heyward, and Ryan Kerrigan. Obviously, an offensive lineman has no true shot at winning the Heisman in this day and age, but it's nice to see Carimi garner some respect for the terrific senior season he put together this year.

 

Link - Badger Bits: Gabe Carimi for Heisman

 

 

 

Carimi, a 6-7, 327-pound senior from Cottage Grove, Wis., has started 48 games in his career, including the past 32 games in a row. All of his starts have come at left tackle as he replaced Joe Thomas, the only Outland Trophy winner in school history.

 

An Outland Trophy finalist himself, Carimi has been the anchor of an offensive line that has produced the 12th-ranked rushing offense in the country (247.3 yards per game) and given up just 12 sacks in 12 games.

 

Behind Carimi, the Badgers became the first team in 11 years to score more than 30 points against Ohio State and Iowa in the same season, rushing for a combined 326 yards against those teams. In the past three weeks against Indiana, Michigan and Northwestern, Wisconsin has rushed for 1,024 yards and 17 touchdowns.

 

With a bowl game still to be played, the Wisconsin offense has already broken school records for rushing touchdowns in a season (46) and points in a season (520). In addition, the team is on pace to break the mark for average yards per carry, total offense, points per game and passing completion percentage.

 

Link - Kendricks, Carimi named AFCA All-Americans

 

 

 

The Badger running game amassed 2,968 yards this season, punched in 46 touchdowns on the ground and produced three running backs who were considered for All-Big Ten honors. Every single time a crucial 3rd or 4th-and-1 came up, UW running backs just followed the right butt cheek of Carimi to pick up the first down. With Carimi protecting Tolzien’s blind side, the Badgers gave up just 12 sacks on the season.

 

Even more impressive, Carimi matched up against the conference best and came out wayyyy on top. Going up against Ohio State’s Cameron Heyward, Iowa’s Adrian Clayborn and Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kerrigan, Carimi limited the future NFL D-linemen to five tackles and one sack — combined.

 

Link - Carimi deserves Big Ten Offensive Player of Year

 

.

Edited December 8, 2010 by The Senator

[JohnC]

 

Appreciate your concern for my pate, John, but Carimi in the 2nd is a pipe dream.

 

After the Rose Bowl, I expect his stock to shoot way up - he'll go in the top 10 of round one...

Matt Hinton aka Dr. Saturday has a post up regarding senior left tackle Gabe Carimi's case for the Heisman. Hinton was especially impressed by Carimi's performance against stud defensive ends Adrian Clayborn, Cameron Heyward, and Ryan Kerrigan. Obviously, an offensive lineman has no true shot at winning the Heisman in this day and age, but it's nice to see Carimi garner some respect for the terrific senior season he put together this year.

 

Link - Badger Bits: Gabe Carimi for Heisman

 

 

 

Carimi, a 6-7, 327-pound senior from Cottage Grove, Wis., has started 48 games in his career, including the past 32 games in a row. All of his starts have come at left tackle as he replaced Joe Thomas, the only Outland Trophy winner in school history.

 

An Outland Trophy finalist himself, Carimi has been the anchor of an offensive line that has produced the 12th-ranked rushing offense in the country (247.3 yards per game) and given up just 12 sacks in 12 games.

Behind Carimi, the Badgers became the first team in 11 years to score more than 30 points against Ohio State and Iowa in the same season, rushing for a combined 326 yards against those teams. In the past three weeks against Indiana, Michigan and Northwestern, Wisconsin has rushed for 1,024 yards and 17 touchdowns.

 

With a bowl game still to be played, the Wisconsin offense has already broken school records for rushing touchdowns in a season (46) and points in a season (520). In addition, the team is on pace to break the mark for average yards per carry, total offense, points per game and passing completion percentage.

 

Link - Kendricks, Carimi named AFCA All-Americans

 

 

 

The Badger running game amassed 2,968 yards this season, punched in 46 touchdowns on the ground and produced three running backs who were considered for All-Big Ten honors. Every single time a crucial 3rd or 4th-and-1 came up, UW running backs just followed the right butt cheek of Carimi to pick up the first down. With Carimi protecting Tolzien’s blind side, the Badgers gave up just 12 sacks on the season.

 

Even more impressive, Carimi matched up against the conference best and came out wayyyy on top. Going up against Ohio State’s Cameron Heyward, Iowa’s Adrian Clayborn and Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kerrigan, Carimi limited the future NFL D-linemen to five tackles and one sack — combined.

 

Link - Carimi deserves Big Ten Offensive Player of Year

 

.

 

I'm not suggesting that Carmini is not going to be a good pro. But he is not going to be a top five or even ten rated player in this draft. Unless the Bills trade down in the first round I'm confident we won't be taking him with our high first round pick.

 

As you noted in your prior posting if the Bills would have addressed the OL in the prior two years they would have so much more flexibility in this year's draft. There is no doubt that draft mistakes compound over time. When will this foolishness on draft day stop?

[Thoner7]

There wasnt a Tackle worth that spot either so I don't blame him for that. And I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say he tried trading down but nobody wanted that spot. I wouldve taken almost anybody else other than Spiller.

 

Bulaga was highly touted at draft time and has played well enouhg to warrent the selection. Saffold was not highly touted but has played well enough to warrent the selection. Thats 2 Ts worth 9.

 

I'm not suggesting that Carmini is not going to be a good pro. But he is not going to be a top five or even ten rated player in this draft. Unless the Bills trade down in the first round I'm confident we won't be taking him with our high first round pick.

 

As you noted in your prior posting if the Bills would have addressed the OL in the prior two years they would have so much more flexibility in this year's draft. There is no doubt that draft mistakes compound over time. When will this foolishness on draft day stop?

 

I have to agree with him here Senator. I love Carimi but to think he is going in to top 15 is a stretch. He is a ood player but the combine will show a lot of his limited athletic ability, which will hurt his draft stock. I think he will be a great player, but his STOCK will be hurt by the workouts. Then he will go on to a great career and all us fans will be like "I knew that guy was awesome, why didnt my team draft him earlier, wtf?"

[The Senator]

I'm not suggesting that Carmini is not going to be a good pro. But he is not going to be a top five or even ten rated player in this draft. Unless the Bills trade down in the first round I'm confident we won't be taking him with our high first round pick.

 

As you noted in your prior posting if the Bills would have addressed the OL in the prior two years they would have so much more flexibility in this year's draft. There is no doubt that draft mistakes compound over time. When will this foolishness on draft day stop?

By some accounts, John, he's already there...

 

NFL Draft Scout

 

Top NFL Draft Prospects for 2011

 

 

Admittedly, those reports are dated, things have changed, some players have dropped off while others (incl. Carimi) have gone up. Again, I expect he'lll continue to rise after the Rose Bowl, right up to the draft. Guess we'll have to wait and see.

Edited December 8, 2010 by The Senator

[JohnC]

Bulaga was highly touted at draft time and has played well enouhg to warrent the selection. Saffold was not highly touted but has played well enough to warrent the selection. Thats 2 Ts worth 9.

 

 

 

I have to agree with him here Senator. I love Carimi but to think he is going in to top 15 is a stretch. He is a ood player but the combine will show a lot of his limited athletic ability, which will hurt his draft stock. I think he will be a great player, but his STOCK will be hurt by the workouts. Then he will go on to a great career and all us fans will be like "I knew that guy was awesome, why didnt my team draft him earlier, wtf?"

 

Last year, Bulaga was rated as a mid to lower first round pick. That is the range where he was taken by the Packers. Spiller was rated as a top ten player. He was taken by the Bills in the vicinity of where he was ranked on most draft boards.

 

Last year, as the draft approached Saffold was steadily working his way up the board. A lot of scouts were very impressed with his athleticism and his versatility. If I recall correctly he was rated as a high second round caliber of player with the possibility of being a low first round first pick. He was taken as the first pick in the second round, in the same vicinity he was ranked.

 

Staying true to your value rankings when drafting makes a lot of sense to me. Reaching for a need has gotten this franchise in a lot of trouble. The Bills need to be disciplined during the draft when making their picks.

[Thoner7]

Last year, Bulaga was rated as a mid to lower first round pick. That is the range where he was taken by the Packers. Spiller was rated as a top ten player. He was taken by the Bills in the vicinity of where he was ranked on most draft boards.

 

Last year, as the draft approached Saffold was steadily working his way up the board. A lot of scouts were very impressed with his athleticism and his versatility. If I recall correctly he was rated as a high second round caliber of player with the possibility of being a low first round first pick. He was taken as the first pick in the second round, in the same vicinity he was ranked.

 

Staying true to your value rankings when drafting makes a lot of sense to me. Reaching for a need has gotten this franchise in a lot of trouble. The Bills need to be disciplined during the draft when making their picks.

 

Bulaga was regarded as a top 10 pick until they measured his arms. After that, he slipped a little, but not until the week before teh draft was he considered outside the top 10.

 

And to the point you bolded - staying true to your draft board makes no sense when you cannot accuraely put together a draft board. Re-read your post again, Bulaga was rated low, Saffold rated Low, Spiller Rated high..... Well guess who is playing well - Saffold and Bulaga, guess who isnt - Spiller.

 

Who the heck wants to stay true to THAT board? Who wants to stay true to the board that has Maybin higher than Orakpo/Cushing/Oher/Mathews? Who wants to stay true to the board with McCargo listed in the first round? Yea stay true to your boad if its accurate - but its teh draft it is rarely accurate. If there is a good player like Bulaga - who you know is going to be solid - take him. He may end up being better than your top guy anyways.