Simulated Draft--

[Astrobot]

I simulated a draft giving equal priority for all 8 of the Bills' needs---QB, RT, LT, OLB, TE, WR, DE, and NT.

This puts the picks into the computer's hands, giving us the best player available based on the Big Board. The results can help us get our priorities straight for Positional Needs.

 

Here are the results. I'm providing the drafted players near our pick to help adjust Positional Needs:

 

Round Pick Team Selection Psn School CRI Delta ReachValue

1 1 Carolina Andrew Luck QB Stanford P1 +0 Value

1 2 Cincinnati Nick Fairley DT43 Auburn P4 +0 Value

1 3 Buffalo Robert Quinn OLB34 North Carolina P2 -1 Reach

1 4 Detroit Prince Amukamara CB Nebraska P1 +1 Value

1 5 Arizona Patrick Peterson CB LSU P3 -2 Reach

1 6 San Francisco Adrian Clayborn DE34 Iowa P4 +0 Value

1 7 Minnesota Derek Sherrod OT Mississippi State P2 -5 Reach

1 8 Dallas Da'Quan Bowers DE34 Clemson P4 +0 Value

1 9 Cleveland A.J. Green WRF Georgia P2 +0 Value

1 10 Denver Marcell Dareus DE34 Alabama P3 +0 Value

 

2 33 New England Julio Jones WRF Alabama P3O +12 Value

2 34 Cincinnati Tyler Sash FS Iowa P2 -5 Reach

2 35 Buffalo Cameron Newton QB Auburn P2 +2 Value

2 36 Detroit Stefen Wisniewski OG Penn State P3 +5 Value

2 37 Arizona Jason Pinkston OT Pittsburgh P2 -1 Reach

2 38 San Francisco Jimmy Smith CB Colorado P2 -8 Reach

2 39 Minnesota Michael Floyd WRF Notre Dame P3O +12 Value

2 40 Dallas Aaron Williams CB Texas P2 -14 Reach

2 41 Cleveland Tank Carder ILB TCU P2 +1 Value

2 42 Denver Martez Wilson ILB Illinois P3 +0 Value

2 43 Houston Mark Barron FS Alabama P3 -8 Reach

2 44 St Louis Justin Blackmon WRF Oklahoma State P1 +8 Value

2 45 Seattle Drake Nevis DT43 LSU P3 -3 Reach

2 46 Denver D.J. Williams TE Arkansas P3 -1 Reach

 

3 65 Carolina Sione Fua DT43 Stanford P2 -10 Reach

3 66 Cincinnati Kendall Hunter RBC Oklahoma State P3 +3 Value

3 67 Buffalo Justin Houston OLB34 Georgia P2 -1 Reach

3 68 Detroit Orlando Franklin OT Miami (FL) P3 -2 Reach

3 69 Arizona Colin Kaepernick QB Nevada P2 +3 Value

3 70 San Francisco Brandon Weeden QB Oklahoma State P1 -19 Reach

3 71 New England Ryan Williams RBF Virginia Tech P4 +14 Value

3 72 Dallas Kristofer O'Dowd OC USC P3 -5 Reach

3 73 Cleveland Luke Stocker TE Tennessee P2 +13 Value

 

4 97 Carolina Titus Young WRF Boise State P2 -2 Reach

4 98 Cincinnati Mark Herzlich OLB43 Boston College P3 -9 Reach

4 99 Buffalo Joseph Barksdale OT LSU P2 -1 Reach

4 100 Detroit Sam Acho DE43 Texas P3 +2 Value

4 101 Arizona Clint Boling OG Georgia P3 -11 Reach

4 102 San Francisco Jarvis Jenkins DE34 Clemson P4R -6 Reach

4 103 Minnesota Pat Devlin QB Delaware P2 -10 Reach

4 104 Dallas Andy Dalton QB TCU P3 -19 Reach

4 105 Cleveland Wayne Daniels OLB34 TCU P2 +0 Value

4 106 Denver Rahim Moore FS UCLA P3 +13 Value

4 107 Houston Mike Pouncey OG Florida P3 -17 Reach

4 108 St Louis Marcus Gilchrist CB Clemson P2 -13 Reach

4 109 Seattle Jabaal Sheard DE43 Pittsburgh P3 -8 Reach

 

5 129 Carolina Chase Minnefield CB Virginia P2 -31 Reach

5 130 Cincinnati Jeff Demps RBF Florida P4 +8 Value

5 131 Buffalo Don'ta Hightower ILB Alabama P3 +12 Value

5 132 Detroit Johnny Brown FS Mississippi P4R -19 Reach

5 133 Arizona Chris White ILB Mississippi State P4R +0 Value

5 134 San Francisco Ronald Johnson WRF USC P4R -13 Reach

5 135 Minnesota Brooks Reed DE43 Arizona P3 +1 Value

5 136 Dallas Mike Mohamed ILB California P4R -3 Reach

5 137 Cleveland Lawrence Guy DE34 Arizona State P2 -9 Reach

5 138 Denver Lee Ziemba OT Auburn P3 -2 Reach

5 139 Houston Jurrell Casey DT43 USC P4 +9 Value

 

6 161 Carolina Preston Dial TE Alabama P4 +13 Value

6 162 Cincinnati Greg Little WRP North Carolina P3R -35 Reach

6 163 Buffalo Terry Griffin DT34 Elizabeth City State P3T -57 Reach

6 164 Detroit Mario Fannin RBF Auburn P4R +6 Value

6 165 Arizona Pierre Allen DE34 Nebraska P4R +3 Value

6 166 San Francisco Nigel Bradham OLB43 Florida State P4R +5 Value

6 167 Minnesota Scott Lutrus ILB Connecticut P3 -5 Reach

6 168 Dallas Jeremy Kellem FS Middle Tennessee P4R -18 Reach

6 169 Cleveland Shareece Wright CB USC P4R -13 Reach

6 170 Denver Eric Hagg SS Nebraska P3R -35 Reach

6 171 Houston Alex Wujciak ILB Maryland P4R -2 Reach

6 172 St Louis Muhammad Wilkerson DT43 Temple P3 +9 Value

6 173 Seattle Vincent Brown WRF San Diego State P4R -4 Reach

6 174 Miami Rashad Carmichael CB Virginia Tech P3 -16 Reach

6 175 Washington Ryan Van Bergen DE34 Michigan P4 +8 Value

6 176 Oakland Ryan Bartholomew OC Syracuse P2R -75 Reach

 

This report was produced using Draft Tek's Draft Simulator:

[Fitzmagic]

All defense please

 

maybe a RT in the 2nd round

[mrags]

I think you need to re-simulate since we have Seattles 4th rounder and some other pick

 

:-)

[DrDawkinstein]

only pick im not happy with is Newton. Out of the players that go shortly after him, Id rather have Floyd, Blackmon, or DJ Williams.

[Deadstroke]

I simulated a draft giving equal priority for all 8 of the Bills' needs---QB, RT, LT, OLB, TE, WR, DE, and NT.

 

 

Sorry but I couldn't go any farther after reading our needs from your post.

 

I disagree with QB, LT, TE (we don't target the TE often because of need for pass protection), WR, and NT.

 

The players that we have at those positions rank from avg to pretty darned good.

 

Your analysis is a bit too negative for my blood.

[WVUFootball29]

Man if you swap Newton for Pinkston and Houston for Kaepernick you have a really nice draft.

[Astrobot]

only pick im not happy with is Newton. Out of the players that go shortly after him, Id rather have Floyd, Blackmon, or DJ Williams.

Me neither. I imagine that after this ALA-AUB game, Newton will fall some more. I'd also take Wisniewski before Newton. This begs the question of whether I should add Guard to our needs, as Wood would move to OC.

[WVUFootball29]

Me neither. I imagine that after this ALA-AUB game, Newton will fall some more. I'd also take Wisniewski before Newton. This begs the question of whether I should add Guard to our needs, as Wood would move to OC.

 

I dont know Astro, Urbik looked pretty good there in relief last week and we'll see more of him this week to get a better idea of his ability.

[mrags]

Me neither. I imagine that after this ALA-AUB game, Newton will fall some more. I'd also take Wisniewski before Newton. This begs the question of whether I should add Guard to our needs, as Wood would move to OC.

Don't forget to add the 4th rounder from Seattle next time you run it with different positions.

[DrDawkinstein]

Sorry but I couldn't go any farther after reading our needs from your post.

 

I disagree with QB, LT, TE (we don't target the TE often because of need for pass protection), WR, and NT.

 

The players that we have at those positions rank from avg to pretty darned good.

 

Your analysis is a bit too negative for my blood.

 

 

then besides RT, OLB, and DE, where would you like to add talent to this team?

[robertpaul49]

OMG!!! I am so glad that the simulation is not doing our draft!

 

This would be a Donahue draft. I hope that the Bills do not reach on an OLB who isn't currently playing. Who had one good year. Seriously!!

 

Plus, how is Dont'a Hightower going in the fifth round?

[DrDawkinstein]

OMG!!! I am so glad that the simulation is not doing our draft!

 

This would be a Donahue draft. I hope that the Bills do not reach on an OLB who isn't currently playing. Who had one good year. Seriously!!

 

Plus, how is Dont'a Hightower going in the fifth round?

 

who would you rather take at #3 overall?

[1B4IDie]

who would you rather take at #3 overall?

Clayborn, Dareus, Bowers.

Quinn is too risky for this franchise. You can't spend a top 10 pick on a guy that has played as much football as the GM picking him in the 7 months leading up to the draft, that is a recipe for disaster.

 

Here is a fan assessment of Quinn that I agree with:

http://player-rater.blogspot.com/2010/09/robert-quinn-2011-draft-scouting-report.html

 

My main issue with Quinn is his stats. At first glance, his stats appear to be great; 52 tackles, 11 sacks Sophomore year. But let's take a closer look. Let's divide the stats from all of the North Carolina games last year based on the strength of the teams Quinn played against. Against The Citadel, East Carolina, Virginia, Georgia Southern, Duke, Boston College, and North Carolina State (7 games), he got ALL of his 11 sacks and 33 of his tackles; against Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Florida State, Miami, Connecticut, and Georgia Tech (6 games), he got a mere 19 tackles and 0 sacks! That is a staggering dispersion of stats between teams he played! He made absolutely no impact in games against good teams, yet he dominated against bad teams.

 

Here are some highlights of Quinn

 

Robert Quinn vs. Virginia

 

Robert Quinn vs. Boston College

 

Overall, I am not very high on Quinn because of his lack of success against the decent FBS teams. The fact is, North Carolina had a pretty easy out of conference schedule last year, and he played in the ACC to boot. If he played in the SEC or the Big Ten, I don't think he would be generating much buzz at all for next year's draft, and he would be a mid first rounder at best. Maybe, if I had seen one of those unimportant games against easy teams, I might have a higher opinion of Quinn, but from what I have seen from Quinn, he makes no impact on game by game basis.

 

NFL Comparison: Vernon Gholston. They have similar skills sets, and Gholston took over the Big Ten in one of its worst years. The Big Ten has improved, and now Quinn is dominating a pretty bad ACC conference. The outlook doesn't seem promising.

[Astrobot]

I dont know Astro, Urbik looked pretty good there in relief last week and we'll see more of him this week to get a better idea of his ability.

I'd like Urbik to step up so I can take Guard off the list of needs. Still like the idea of moving Wood to Center.

 

I liked Clayborn's last game and Dareus's today. Both sealed the edge masterfully. That'd be huge.

Speaking of huge, I liked Fairley today too.

 

Clayborn, Dareus, Bowers.

Quinn is too risky for this franchise. You can't spend a top 10 pick on a guy that has played as much football as the GM picking him in the 7 months leading up to the draft, that is a recipe for disaster.

 

Here is a fan assessment of Quinn that I agree with:

http://player-rater.blogspot.com/2010/09/robert-quinn-2011-draft-scouting-report.html

 

My main issue with Quinn is his stats. At first glance, his stats appear to be great; 52 tackles, 11 sacks Sophomore year. But let's take a closer look. Let's divide the stats from all of the North Carolina games last year based on the strength of the teams Quinn played against. Against The Citadel, East Carolina, Virginia, Georgia Southern, Duke, Boston College, and North Carolina State (7 games), he got ALL of his 11 sacks and 33 of his tackles; against Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Florida State, Miami, Connecticut, and Georgia Tech (6 games), he got a mere 19 tackles and 0 sacks! That is a staggering dispersion of stats between teams he played! He made absolutely no impact in games against good teams, yet he dominated against bad teams.

 

Here are some highlights of Quinn

 

Robert Quinn vs. Virginia

 

Robert Quinn vs. Boston College

 

Overall, I am not very high on Quinn because of his lack of success against the decent FBS teams. The fact is, North Carolina had a pretty easy out of conference schedule last year, and he played in the ACC to boot. If he played in the SEC or the Big Ten, I don't think he would be generating much buzz at all for next year's draft, and he would be a mid first rounder at best. Maybe, if I had seen one of those unimportant games against easy teams, I might have a higher opinion of Quinn, but from what I have seen from Quinn, he makes no impact on game by game basis.

 

NFL Comparison: Vernon Gholston. They have similar skills sets, and Gholston took over the Big Ten in one of its worst years. The Big Ten has improved, and now Quinn is dominating a pretty bad ACC conference. The outlook doesn't seem promising.

[1B4IDie]

I'd like Urbik to step up so I can take Guard off the list of needs. Still like the idea of moving Wood to Center.

 

I liked Clayborn's last game and Dareus's today. Both sealed the edge masterfully. That'd be huge.

Speaking of huge, I liked Fairley today too.

Yeah Fairly was a beast.

He is a huge reason Auburn was able to come back. His red zone play, changed the outcome of the game including the strip, sack, fumble + fumble recovery!

If the Bills are in a 4-3 with Kyle and Fairley or a 3-4 with Fairly at a DE, and this is going to sound crazy at first Kyle at the otherDE, and more of big body run stuffer NT, that would be a pretty sick 3-4 D-Line that would free up LBs for 1-1s or 1onRBsorTEs.

 

I don't think Fairley projects well to a 3-4 DE but he can also play DT in a 4-3 like he does now. I think he is talented enough to play either position.

On a 3-4 where do you put Kyle? I don't think he would thrive at NT like he is at DT. 3-4 DE would seem to be a better fit?

[DrDawkinstein]

Yeah Fairly was a beast.

He is a huge reason Auburn was able to come back. His red zone play, changed the outcome of the game including the strip, sack, fumble + fumble recovery!

If the Bills are in a 4-3 with Kyle and Fairley or a 3-4 with Fairly at a DE, and this is going to sound crazy at first Kyle at the otherDE, and more of big body run stuffer NT, that would be a pretty sick 3-4 D-Line that would free up LBs for 1-1s or 1onRBsorTEs.

 

I don't think Fairley projects well to a 3-4 DE but he can also play DT in a 4-3 like he does now. I think he is talented enough to play either position.

On a 3-4 where do you put Kyle? I don't think he would thrive at NT like he is at DT. 3-4 DE would seem to be a better fit?

 

I dont think Williams had a problem playing NT in the 3-4, and imagine how good he could be if we had a player like Fairley next to him!! AND vice versa. As of this season, Kyle Williams is a recognized, dominant figure on our DLine and will be getting a lot of attention from a lot of OLinemen. Between Williams and Fairley, you cant double team our entire DLine.

 

If a talent like Fairley is on the board, you take him. It doesnt matter what scheme you plan on running or what he "projects to". Get the best, nastiest guys on the field and tear some heads off!

[ReturnoftheBuffaloBeast23]

Dear Santa,

 

All I want is Cameron Newton as a Buffalo Bill..

 

LOL!

 

No seriously after that Bama game how can you really hate on the kid I mean C'MON. If Luck is gone we need CAM he's a winner something we currently don't have on this team...

[1B4IDie]

I dont think Williams had a problem playing NT in the 3-4, and imagine how good he could be if we had a player like Fairley next to him!! AND vice versa. As of this season, Kyle Williams is a recognized, dominant figure on our DLine and will be getting a lot of attention from a lot of OLinemen. Between Williams and Fairley, you cant double team our entire DLine.

 

If a talent like Fairley is on the board, you take him. It doesnt matter what scheme you plan on running or what he "projects to". Get the best, nastiest guys on the field and tear some heads off!

I can get on the nasty train and Fairley is the nastiest in this draft. . I couldnt wait until he rag dolls Brady to the ground and "accidentally" steps on his leg on the way up.

I don't care if it's dirty if he is Buffalo Bill.

[DrDawkinstein]

Dear Santa,

 

All I want is Cameron Newton as a Buffalo Bill..

 

LOL!

 

No seriously after that Bama game how can you really hate on the kid I mean C'MON. If Luck is gone we need CAM he's a winner something we currently don't have on this team...

 

he didnt win that game for Auburn, at least not as a QB. maybe as a RB. but if anyone gets the win, its Fairley and the rest of D.

 

Newton is having 1 good season. Actually about 6 great games. They SHOULD win the SEC Champ, and National Champ. But even if they do, you dont look at Newton any earlier than round 2. The kid is a HUGE project, and doesnt have the character that the last huge QB project (Tebow) does. If you're choosing someone based mostly on them being a "Winner", they need to have won A LOT, and over at least a couple of seasons.

 

If you draft Newton at #3 overall, and give him that contract, he'll be busier spending his money with Maybin than learning the game.

[JohnC]

Me neither. I imagine that after this ALA-AUB game, Newton will fall some more. I'd also take Wisniewski before Newton. This begs the question of whether I should add Guard to our needs, as Wood would move to OC.

 

Your thinking on Newton doesn't make sense to me. He is steadily going to be moving up the chart. I realize I will be skewered for my opinion but I would take him with our first pick and then move on from there. In my view it is imperative that we get our long-term franchise qb on board as soon as possible.

 

Take note on my opinion on Newton. After Luck Newton is going to be the next qb taken. You noted that after the Alabama/Auburn game that Newton's value would decline-I beg to differ. His value will increase.