Carson Palmer #1 Draft Pick

[Dan]

I think the disconnect in this argument is the attempt to attribute success to the drafting of a single player. Football is the true team game. A top QB can only become a future HOF prospect if you continue to build the rest of the team properly. Having quality coaching is also pretty darn important. Let's just toss that out there for fun, as well.

 

So, IMO, if you really think Luck is the next great QB; you take him. But, you don't stop there. You stack the team with the right talent and most importantly get good coaches hired to properly utilize those players. Unfortunately, does anyone really think that Modkins and Edwards are Super Bowl caliber coordinators? So, there's going to be a huge confounding variable in any player evaluation on this team until we get better coaching in here.

[The Big Cat]

All that, and you didn't even point out that Indy and New Orleans got to the Superbowl after they let James and Williams go.

 

So clearly, to get to the Superbowl the Bills need to draft luck in the top 5, then cut him around 2017.

 

That's totally fair.

 

It was more to demonstrate that picking in the top 5 severely limits, but doesn't totally negate the possibility that the franchise will make it to the Super Bowl within the decade.

[BADOLBILZ]

You either have a franchise quarterback or you do not

 

If you do not, you need to get one

 

A QB has more impact on the game in the NFL today than ever and it's harder to be a franchise QB than ever

 

This is in part due to the complexity of the modern NFL defense, but also rules changes and the fact that the 53 man rosters aren't as strong as pre-expansion/pre-free agency. The other 21 starters aren't as important as they were 20 years ago.

 

So you should be willing to take chances at the QB position. If you swing and miss, try again. It's not like gambling on a 230# DE, the potential reward from the QB position is much greater.

 

I've said it before, if the Bills used their first selection in the draft on a QB every year for the past 6-7 years they wouldn't have been any worse off than they are today. (and no, it wouldn't be a cap issue, they are still paying all the busts,jags and disappointments they did select)

 

Here's a stat for the Big Cat:

 

The last time the Bills actually drafted a quarterback with their first selection in the draft?

 

 

1960 (Richie Lucas, Penn State)

 

 

Since then they've tabbed 11 RB's with their first selection. ELEVEN.

 

Yes, they've traded their first pick to get veteran QB's and even traded a future first pick to get JP Losman.......but that is still just 3 times utilizing their first selection on a QB versus 11 times on a RB. It's really no wonder why they've had only 1 franchise QB since the AFL/NFL merger.

 

As KOKBills pointed out, the Bills have had QB problems for the past 15 years and the Bills simply haven't done enough to address the position. Fans such as yourself just want the franchise QB to appear and while it could happen, hoping is not a strategy.

 

Luck and Mallet are both very talented. There are no guarantees, but there are no guarantees that any other pick is going to pan out either.

[The Big Cat]

You either have a franchise quarterback or you do not

 

If you do not, you need to get one

 

A QB has more impact on the game in the NFL today than ever and it's harder to be a franchise QB than ever

 

This is in part due to the complexity of the modern NFL defense, but also rules changes and the fact that the 53 man rosters aren't as strong as pre-expansion/pre-free agency. The other 21 starters aren't as important as they were 20 years ago.

 

So you should be willing to take chances at the QB position. If you swing and miss, try again. It's not like gambling on a 230# DE, the potential reward from the QB position is much greater.

 

I've said it before, if the Bills used their first selection in the draft on a QB every year for the past 6-7 years they wouldn't have been any worse off than they are today. (and no, it wouldn't be a cap issue, they are still paying all the busts,jags and disappointments they did select)

 

Here's a stat for the Big Cat:

 

The last time the Bills actually drafted a quarterback with their first selection in the draft?

 

 

1960 (Richie Lucas, Penn State)

 

 

Since then they've tabbed 11 RB's with their first selection. ELEVEN.

 

Yes, they've traded their first pick to get veteran QB's and even traded a future first pick to get JP Losman.......but that is still just 3 times utilizing their first selection on a QB versus 11 times on a RB. It's really no wonder why they've had only 1 franchise QB since the AFL/NFL merger.

 

As KOKBills pointed out, the Bills have had QB problems for the past 15 years and the Bills simply haven't done enough to address the position. Fans such as yourself just want the franchise QB to appear and while it could happen, hoping is not a strategy.

 

Luck and Mallet are both very talented. There are no guarantees, but there are no guarantees that any other pick is going to pan out either.

 

So the Bills need an elite quarterback? That's a really novel conclusion, thank you for opening my eyes to that. I never considered the quarterback to be an important position until you mentioned it here. Wow, I see the world with new eyes now.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Even though the chances of The Bills taking a QB in the Top 5 remain slim (Luck may not come out, The Bills win a few more games, etc...) I'm hoping beyond hope that they do end up getting Luck or Mallet just to see the anti-QB folks around here implode in anger...

 

There is absolutely no way you can fault a Team for Drafting a QB high assuming that QB is rated where he is Drafted...ESPECIALLY when you've had the QB problems The Bills have had for what? 15 Years now? It's not always going to work out...that's just the way it is...Nothing is guaranteed anyway...They will still need to build the O-line and improve the Defense to win a Championship...That goes without saying...But if they get the chance to take the Top 10 QB, and that QB grades out to be Drafted there, they HAVE to take the Kid...Because if they hit with that QB they win BIG for a decade plus...It's a no-brainer for this Franchise at this time...They have to take that risk...

 

You won't see me "imploding in anger" or faulting the bills for drafting a QB in the 1st round if that's what they do.

I don't see myself (or a lot of people making similar points) as "anti-QB folks" either. Your mileage seems to vary, that's fine.

I see the people making these points as students of the game who have a different view on which piece of the puzzle to put in first

and to some extent, differing opinions on the importance of the different pieces.

 

In every field, thoughtful people look at the same data and reach different conclusions.

Doesn't make them fools or "haters" and I guess it wears on my nerve sometimes how extreme some folks like to paint it as here.

 

If Bills take a QB and 5 years from now it hasn't had the desired impact, it's a safe bet that a lot of today's "draft QB #1, it's the only thing that makes sense" enthusiasts will be found dissing on Magical Franchise QB (BUST!) because he hasn't had the desired super-fantastic impact on the teams W-L record, trips to the playoff, and playoff record.

 

Just like a lot of Cincy fans who were doubtless rooting for Palmer to be drafted #1 in 2003 are doing now.

And it's silly, in my view. The QB is an important piece, but he's far from the only piece and he can't put the whole puzzle together by himself.

 

I think the disconnect in this argument is the attempt to attribute success to the drafting of a single player. Football is the true team game. A top QB can only become a future HOF prospect if you continue to build the rest of the team properly. Having quality coaching is also pretty darn important. Let's just toss that out there for fun, as well.

 

So, IMO, if you really think Luck is the next great QB; you take him. But, you don't stop there. You stack the team with the right talent and most importantly get good coaches hired to properly utilize those players. Unfortunately, does anyone really think that Modkins and Edwards are Super Bowl caliber coordinators? So, there's going to be a huge confounding variable in any player evaluation on this team until we get better coaching in here.

 

Exact a Mondo

 

In my opinion, that is the Lesson of Carson Palmer, 2003 Overall Pick #1.

[BADOLBILZ]

So the Bills need an elite quarterback? That's a really novel conclusion, thank you for opening my eyes to that. I never considered the quarterback to be an important position until you mentioned it here. Wow, I see the world with new eyes now.

 

The post was in response to the thread starter. There actually are people out there who think that drafting a pass rushing OLB is going to turn this team around. It's not. It might help in the interim. But long term, sustained success depends on QB play first.

 

You meanwhile, attempt to downplay the position by implying that the specific first draft pick number(1-5) that is used on the particular QB will determine whether you go to a Super Bowl or not. If you want to use stats like that, irrespective of all other factors, as you did.....you need a very large sampling. Say a few hundred years?

 

In short, you remain a very active idiot on this board. Congratulations. If it weren't for Promo and a few others, you might be a franchise idiot.

[aristocrat]

The post was in response to the thread starter. There actually are people out there who think that drafting a pass rushing OLB is going to turn this team around. It's not. It might help in the interim. But long term, sustained success depends on QB play first.

 

You meanwhile, attempt to downplay the position by implying that the specific first draft pick number(1-5) that is used on the particular QB will determine whether you go to a Super Bowl or not. If you want to use stats like that, irrespective of all other factors, as you did.....you need a very large sampling. Say a few hundred years?

 

In short, you remain a very active idiot on this board. Congratulations. If it weren't for Promo and a few others, you might be a franchise idiot.

 

yes, consistent play at the qb position. the question is will andrew luck quarterback the bills for the next 15 years? will he help you win a superbowl? if the bills think he will then we take him. after that the bills need to consistently draft well year after year and support him. the bills need to build teams better. we need to be going into the season with less question marks on the roster than we have in the past decade.

[Chilly]

Fine, you can make the argument that a "top flight quarterback" is necessary.

 

But the evidence shows that the "top flight quarterback" is not found in the top 5 of the draft. For a host of factors, not least of which is the shaky foundation on which most top 5 drafting teams stand.

 

For that reason, and since I don't believe that any quarterback coming into this draft is "top flight" enough to compensate for our, or for any team's shaky foundation, to use our top 5 pick on a quarterback would be a waste.

 

Top-32 NFL QBs in 2010 by QB rank (up until this point), with where they were drafted:

 

1.) Vick, 1st overall

2.) Garrard, 4th round

3.) Rivers, 1st round, 4th pick

4.) Brady, 6th round

5.) V. Young, 1st round, 3rd pick

6.) Ben Rothelisberger, 1st round, 11th pick

7.) Kyle Orton, 4th round

8.) Tony Romo, UDFA

9.) Matt Cassel, 7th round

10.) Peyton Manning, 1st overall

11.) Eli Manning, 1st overall,

12.) Matt Ryan, 1st round, 3rd overall

13.) Drew Brees, 2nd round, 32nd overall

14.) Matt Schaub, 3rd round

15.) Aaron Rodgers, 1st round, 24th overall

16.) Josh Freeman, 1st round, 17th overall

17.) Joe Flacco, 1st round, 18th overall

18.) Ryan Fitzpatrick, 7th round

19.) Kevin Kolb, 2nd round

20.) Jay Cutler, 1st round, 11th overall

21.) Carson Palmer, 1st round, 1st overall

22.) Jon Kitna, UDFA

23.) Jason Campbell, 1st round, 25th overall

24.) Mark Sanchez, 1st round, 5th overall

25.) Chad Henne, 2nd round

26.) Shaun Hill, UDFA

27.) Sam Bradford, 1st round, 1st overall

28.) Matt Hasselbeck, 6th round

29.) Donovan McNabb, 1st round, 2nd overall

30.) Alex Smith, 1st round, 1st overall

31.) Brett Favre, 2nd round, 33rd overall

32.) Derek Anderson, 6th round

 

What does that all mean? Not much without some context. For the purposes of this comparison, I'm not going to count Favre & Kitna, as most QBs don't start when they get as old as they do - skewing the numbers (most QBs retire at age 38). Thus, I'm going to take the next oldest QB on this list, Matt Hasselbeck, and look at the drafts from 1998 through 2010.

 

Here's how many QBs were picked in each round of the draft:

 

- Round 1: 35 QBs

- Round 2: 14 QBs

- Round 3: 17 QBs

- Round 4: 15 QBs

- Round 5: 24 QBs

- Round 6: 31 QBs

- Round 7: 28 QBs

 

Here’s how it’s broken down with the top-32 NFL QB ratings as a percentage of overall picks:

 

- R1: 48.5%

- R2: 21.42%

- R3: 5.8%

- R4: 13.3%

- R5: 0%

- R6: 9.67%

- R7: 7.14%

 

What these percentages mean is that 48.5% of all QBs who were taken in the 1st round between 1998 & 2010 are in the top-32 in NFL QB rating this year through week 10.

 

Unfortunately, I don’t have data on UDFAs, but I suspect it would be pretty small given the number of UDFAs that are signed.

 

Let’s also look at top-5, since you brought that up specifically.

 

Right now, there are 10 QBs that were taken in the top-5 of the draft in the top-32 in NFL QB rankings. There have been 18 QBs taken in the top-5 since 1998. As a percentage, that’s 55.55% - better than the total of R1 and the best of all the numbers.

 

Now, I know there is a lot of talk about “elite” QBs vs “non-elite” QBs. There’s lots of ways to define an Elite QB. The discussion gets really dicey here, as I think everyone would agree that Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning are elite QBs, but if we used top-10 by QB rating, they wouldn’t be included. Guys like Matt Cassel and David Garrard would be included, even though they are clearly not elite.

 

There isn’t a great way to judge from stats alone who is and isn’t an elite QB. If you do an average over a certain number of years, you include years that players were injured and thus their stats get killed. You also include seasons like Derek Anderson’s crazy year, when that was clearly a fluke.

 

However we divvy up QBs is going to be subjective. Thus, I’ll use John Clayton’s list from before this year started (available at http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/preview10/columns/story?columnist=clayton_john&id=5489176):

 

1.) Peyton Manning, round 1, pick 1

2.) Tom Brady, round 6

3.) Drew Brees, round 2

4.) Ben Rothelisberger, round 1, pick 11

5.) Brett Favre, round 2

6.) Aaron Rodgers, round 1, pick 24

7.) Philip Rivers, round 1, pick 4

8.) Tony Romo, UDFA

9.) Donovan McNabb, round 1, pick 2

10.) Carson Palmer, round 1, pick 1

11.) Eli Manning, round 1, pick 1

12.) Joe Flacco, round 1, pick 18

13.) Matt Ryan, round 1, pick 3

14.) Matt Schaub, round 3

 

 

If you’re talking about “Elite QBs” going into this season defined this way, here’s how the rounds break down (like last time, this is a % of elite QBs/total QBs picked):

 

- R1: 25.71%

- R2: 14.29%

- R3: 5.88%

- R4: 0%

- R5: 0%

- R6: 3.23%

- R7: 0%

 

 

Again, you’re much more likely to get an elite QB in round 1 than you are in any other round.

 

However, if we look at just top-5, there are 6 QBs in that list from the top-5, with 18 being drafted in that time period. That’s 33% of QBs taken in the top-5, again better than any of the other rounds.

 

I think the available evidence directly contradicts your claim that top QBs in the NFL aren’t found in the top-5 picks.

 

In fact, I believe that teams place a premium value on QBs because they are so hard to get, and are the most important position on the field. As a result, it’s much more important to grab one early if you have the opportunity to get one that you feel is going to be a franchise QB.

 

If the Bills are picking in the top-5 in the draft, and have the opportunity to draft a top QB and a top player at another position, you draft the QB because of how important they are to the team’s success & difficulty to acquire.

Edited November 21, 2010 by BlueFire