Astrobot Posted November 19, 2010 Author Posted November 19, 2010 The Bills just have so many needs but the reason I put QB at P2 instead of P1 is because I think that getting a pass rush in 2011 would immediately lead to more Ws. Finding a long term solution at QB can't outweigh the short term pass rushing need though. Plus The RT position is such a mess that it is a top tier need, obviously you wouldn't draft a RT at #4 so I'm just assuming that the draftek player ranking will take care of not picking a RT too high. Next would be more 2-4 year and depth needs. Depth and starters at ILB depending on the 3-4, or 4-3 alignment Depth at Rotation and NT, and DT depending on the 3-4, or 4-3 alignment. One Solution at LT and RT is find a better LT than Bell then move Bell to RT so that is why I gave LT a P3 But Bell has been doing OK so its not a P2 right now. TEs? Do we have those on the current roster? If Wood is long term solution at C its kind of dynamic situation on a draft board. Basically don't draft a pure G, Draft a big intelligent C\G like the Colts do, They just draft Center\Guards and put them at Guard then you possibly create a line that should understand protections better. I thought it was interesting you have WR at P4, there is a need, but if Nix has anything to do with the seemingly endless line of big WRs that the Chargers have (VJAx, Floyd, Nannee, Tutu, (I think Buster Davis is under 6",) Then he might draft WRs as his pet projects Or TEs (when Gates goes down they seem to have another big guy that steps in take his place) It is a lower priority need but WRs don't translate well to the NFL so you constantly need to bring new WRs to see how can work out, and they make pretty good Special Teamers same as LBs. Maybe the lack of depth at LB, TE, and WR is another reason our special teams have been struggling more than usual. Wonderful, thoughtful post! Thanks! TE's---Shawn Nelson could be a force, but you're right--Nix likes TE's. I like some of the TE play lately but you know they miss having a dominator TE on this team that defenses have to plan for. We need TE's that can hit on Special Teams and can work seams, midround tough guys like Marshall's Lee Smith, TCU's Evan Frosch, and Fordham's Steven Skelton. WR's---This is a deep draft for WR's, but I'll say it--It wouldn't surprise me if AJ Green were this year's "Spiller pick" if the pass rusher or QB they covet isn't there. I like guys who may last until RD5 in this draft. LB's---You are right on target with the ST play being adversely affected by the lack of depth at the hitter positions. Fortunately for the Bills, ILB and OLB look good in this draft. I like OLB's Quinn in RD1, Jeremy Beal in RD2, Sam Acho in RD3, and Jabaal Sheard in RD3-4. There are ILB's we should pay attention to after RD3 like Chris White of Mississippi State, Mark Herzlich, Brian Smith (Notre Dame)and Michigan's Obi Ezeh. How about Doug Hogue from Syracuse or his counterpart on the other side (I'm blanking...starts with H too).
Pirate Angel Posted November 19, 2010 Posted November 19, 2010 Here's what I have for the next consensus mock draft at DraftTek: QB=P1 (Priority 1--there can be only one P1) LT=P2 DE=P2 OLB=P2 RT=P3 NT=P3 ILB=P3 WR=P4 All other positions are listed at P9. There is no such thing as P7 or P8, and I haven't used any P6's. We used to be the first pick but in the next draft, Carolina is. If Andrew Luck is taken by Carolina, then the computer will give the Bills the P2 player that is highest on the Big Board located here. Right now, it's Nick Fairley, who we see as a Marcus Stroud type DE with more speed, decent moves, and strong push. Definitely a headache requiring 2 blockers (and occasionally 3). Everybody happy with the positional needs, especially the P2's? Astro Bills Analyst for DraftTek.com WR shouldnt be a priority at all, Steve Johnson emerged as a decent # 2 and we have Marcus Easley who looked good in camp coming back from injury. TE should be on the priority.
ndirish1978 Posted November 19, 2010 Posted November 19, 2010 We need RT, not a LT. and putting LT at #2 is simply ludicrous.
Koufax Posted November 19, 2010 Posted November 19, 2010 I am a BPA guy, so I am tempted to put everything at P3 just out of principle. I would likely put: QB=P2* (definitely need it, but if the right value isn't there, Fitz has shown we can wait another year) LT=P3* (I think Bell has played well enough to target this if value is there DE=P2 OLB=P2 RT=P3 NT=P3 ILB=P3 WR=P3* (I wouldn't pass on a better WR because we needed a RT or NT more, so this has to be at the same level in my mind) TE=P3 CB=P4* (Lower priority, but if a much better football player I would still take one...although hopefully the P4 is enough to keep from taking one in the top five) S=P5* (Lower priority, but I would still take a special safety over a so-so RT) RB/Punter/Kicker=P9 (these are the positions where I would actively pass on a better player to take an inferior player at another position). So that is my BPA take on the values you have put in. Not sure how the math works and if you have to force things lower to avoid getting all DBs. And with my "way too soon and I don't follow college football closely enough" disclaimer, I wouldn't mind Fairley at all. Here's what I have for the next consensus mock draft at DraftTek: QB=P1 (Priority 1--there can be only one P1) LT=P2 DE=P2 OLB=P2 RT=P3 NT=P3 ILB=P3 WR=P4 All other positions are listed at P9. There is no such thing as P7 or P8, and I haven't used any P6's. We used to be the first pick but in the next draft, Carolina is. If Andrew Luck is taken by Carolina, then the computer will give the Bills the P2 player that is highest on the Big Board located here. Right now, it's Nick Fairley, who we see as a Marcus Stroud type DE with more speed, decent moves, and strong push. Definitely a headache requiring 2 blockers (and occasionally 3). Everybody happy with the positional needs, especially the P2's? Astro Bills Analyst for DraftTek.com
JohnC Posted November 19, 2010 Posted November 19, 2010 (edited) Here's what I have for the next consensus mock draft at DraftTek: QB=P1 (Priority 1--there can be only one P1) LT=P2 DE=P2 OLB=P2 RT=P3 NT=P3 ILB=P3 WR=P4 All other positions are listed at P9. There is no such thing as P7 or P8, and I haven't used any P6's. We used to be the first pick but in the next draft, Carolina is. If Andrew Luck is taken by Carolina, then the computer will give the Bills the P2 player that is highest on the Big Board located here. Right now, it's Nick Fairley, who we see as a Marcus Stroud type DE with more speed, decent moves, and strong push. Definitely a headache requiring 2 blockers (and occasionally 3). Everybody happy with the positional needs, especially the P2's? Astro Bills Analyst for DraftTek.com Why is it that when I say that Mallett will be ranked in the 15-25 range I get stomped by the outraged gang? You have Mallett ranked at 25 and yet you get little reaction. It must be your more pleasant personality? Edited November 19, 2010 by JohnC
Astrobot Posted November 19, 2010 Author Posted November 19, 2010 I have heard the voice of the masses and will put in for a TE and lower my priority for WR. I still am adamant that if the BPA was a Guard, we'd spring for him and move Wood to Center and move Hangman to the curb. The other conversation, Mallett over Locker, will probably show up on Monday on the Big Board. They want to see this week's results. Without Luck, here's how I'd put them now: 1. Cameron Newton - Junior but most likely to declare 2. Ryan Mallett - Moves up by default. 2nd most likely Junior to declare; likely there with our RD2 pick 3. Jake Locker - Last game lowered his stock but you can still blame his ribs. I like ribs. 4. Christian Ponder - Looked good in close loss to Baylor: 24/34, 264 passing and 3 TD's. There at RD2 pick but gone by RD3 pick? 5. Brandon Weeden - The winner of game with Ponder's club elevated his stock; 34/42, 435 yds passing and 3 TD's in rout of Baylor 6. Pat Devlin - Padded stats vs 1-8 Towson: 29/38, 318 yards, 1 passing and 1 rushing TD. Stock likely to fall a bit 7. Colin Kaepernick - 320 yds and 5 TD passes vs Enderle's Idaho club. Is he a system guy? RD3, but Trent was a RD3... 8. Andy Dalton - 21/26, 355 yds and 3 TD passes against #5 Utah. I like Dalton's chances in RD3
Offside Number 76 Posted November 20, 2010 Posted November 20, 2010 I have heard the voice of the masses and will put in for a TE and lower my priority for WR. I still am adamant that if the BPA was a Guard, we'd spring for him and move Wood to Center and move Hangman to the curb. The other conversation, Mallett over Locker, will probably show up on Monday on the Big Board. They want to see this week's results. Without Luck, here's how I'd put them now: 1. Cameron Newton - Junior but most likely to declare 2. Ryan Mallett - Moves up by default. 2nd most likely Junior to declare; likely there with our RD2 pick 3. Jake Locker - Last game lowered his stock but you can still blame his ribs. I like ribs. 4. Christian Ponder - Looked good in close loss to Baylor: 24/34, 264 passing and 3 TD's. There at RD2 pick but gone by RD3 pick? 5. Brandon Weeden - The winner of game with Ponder's club elevated his stock; 34/42, 435 yds passing and 3 TD's in rout of Baylor 6. Pat Devlin - Padded stats vs 1-8 Towson: 29/38, 318 yards, 1 passing and 1 rushing TD. Stock likely to fall a bit 7. Colin Kaepernick - 320 yds and 5 TD passes vs Enderle's Idaho club. Is he a system guy? RD3, but Trent was a RD3... 8. Andy Dalton - 21/26, 355 yds and 3 TD passes against #5 Utah. I like Dalton's chances in RD3 Newton? Really, for the NFL? I guess it really isn't a QB year, after all. BTW, I love Draftek threads. They really are among my favorites. I love that site, too.
JohnC Posted November 20, 2010 Posted November 20, 2010 (edited) I have heard the voice of the masses and will put in for a TE and lower my priority for WR. I still am adamant that if the BPA was a Guard, we'd spring for him and move Wood to Center and move Hangman to the curb. The other conversation, Mallett over Locker, will probably show up on Monday on the Big Board. They want to see this week's results. Without Luck, here's how I'd put them now: 1. Cameron Newton - Junior but most likely to declare 2. Ryan Mallett - Moves up by default. 2nd most likely Junior to declare; likely there with our RD2 pick 3. Jake Locker - Last game lowered his stock but you can still blame his ribs. I like ribs. 4. Christian Ponder - Looked good in close loss to Baylor: 24/34, 264 passing and 3 TD's. There at RD2 pick but gone by RD3 pick? 5. Brandon Weeden - The winner of game with Ponder's club elevated his stock; 34/42, 435 yds passing and 3 TD's in rout of Baylor 6. Pat Devlin - Padded stats vs 1-8 Towson: 29/38, 318 yards, 1 passing and 1 rushing TD. Stock likely to fall a bit 7. Colin Kaepernick - 320 yds and 5 TD passes vs Enderle's Idaho club. Is he a system guy? RD3, but Trent was a RD3... 8. Andy Dalton - 21/26, 355 yds and 3 TD passes against #5 Utah. I like Dalton's chances in RD3 There has been so much emphasis on Newton's propensity to run that what is missed is his ability to throw. He definitely has a strong arm and he is an accurate passer. Every time I have seen him he gets better as a passer. One of the main reasons why I have a lot of qualms over Mallett is his durability. That is not a concern with Newton. Although Newton isn't playing in a pro system the Bills would be a good place for him to land because they can take some time to groom him. Fitz is for the short term an adequate qb for us. He is the type of person who would work with the young understudy. Edited November 20, 2010 by JohnC
Offside Number 76 Posted November 20, 2010 Posted November 20, 2010 There has been so much emphasis on Newton's propensity to run that what is missed is his ability to throw. He definitely has a strong arm and he is an accurate passer. Every time I have seen him he gets better as a passer. One of the main reasons why I have a lot of qualms over Mallett is his durability. That is not a concern with Newton. Although Newton isn't playing in a pro system the Bills would be a good place for him to land because they can take some time to groom him. Fitz is for the short term an adequate qb for us. He is the type of person who would work with the young understudy. Fine, but if the Bills spend a first-round pick on him, I won't be happy.
JohnC Posted November 20, 2010 Posted November 20, 2010 (edited) Fine, but if the Bills spend a first-round pick on him, I won't be happy. I agree with you that if the Bills have a top five pick I would not promote the taking of CN at that lofty location. But if they could move down in the first round or possibly get him in the second round then I would strongly advocate taking him. The Bills have a lot of needs. So the Bills can stay with their own draft board and acquire a player who will fill a need. If the Bills believe that there is a long term franchise qb available then go ahead and get that player. But they will be making a mistake if they reach for a qb. I trust Nix more that I trust the owner who has made statements that he wants a franchise qb taken in the next draft. It will be interesting to see how this draft scenario plays out. Edited November 20, 2010 by JohnC
Lofton80 Posted November 20, 2010 Posted November 20, 2010 I wondered about this myself. Looking at last year as a blueprint, I think Buddy's thinking is if a guy grades as a superstar, you take him regardless of needs elsewhere. I watch AJ Green and Julio Jones and they look like pro's right now. We have Evans, Roscoe, Johnson and Easly so it is not a need but can you pass on a superstar if he is there? I would not be surprised if Mallett was the pick with the same thinking. If he grades out well which I think he will, Buddy has picked SEC QB's in the past. He would not be rushed in with Fitz playing so well. Buddy was part of a staff that took Manning/Rivers when they had Brees so he has done it before. We will not have the top pick to take Luck. The glaring lack of talent at DE, LB, RT and TE will have to be addressed. In a perfect world, Merriman can still play, Batten and Carrington are contributors and maybe Littman allows Ralph to spend some of that Toronto money to sign a Chad Greenway, then draft day could be really interesting. WR's---This is a deep draft for WR's, but I'll say it--It wouldn't surprise me if AJ Green were this year's "Spiller pick" if the pass rusher or QB they covet isn't there. I like guys who may last until RD5 in this draft.
JohnC Posted November 20, 2010 Posted November 20, 2010 (edited) maybe Littman allows Ralph to spend some of that Toronto money to sign a Chad Greenway, then draft day could be really interesting. The Toronto money was paid up front. Ralph has already pocketed it. He was asked at the time if any of that money was going to be used to add to the roster. He said no. Don't be surprised that with the additional two games added in the next CBA that another Toronto deal will be forthcoming. Rogers's son has made it known that he is interested in more games, even though the initial series was a losing proposition for the company. Edited November 20, 2010 by JohnC
The Senator Posted November 20, 2010 Posted November 20, 2010 The Toronto money was paid up front. Ralph has already pocketed it. He was asked at the time if any of that money was going to be used to add to the roster. He said no. Don't be surprised that with the additional two games added in the next CBA that another Toronto deal will be forthcoming. Rogers's son has made it known that he is interested in more games, even though the initial series was a losing proposition for the company. I would be surprised if Toronto did not get the additional...ahem...'home' game if the NFL goes to an 18-game season. OTOH, I'd be surprised if they got any more than that, given the soft-demand for tickets up there. (Unless, of course, the John Labatt Extra Stock kicks in and Rogers offers Ralph another $80-100M ) BTW, the current RWS lease is up in 2013 - shouldn't some local pols be talking up locking them in for another decade?
Offside Number 76 Posted November 20, 2010 Posted November 20, 2010 I agree with you that if the Bills have a top five pick I would not promote the taking of CN at that lofty location. But if they could move down in the first round or possibly get him in the second round then I would strongly advocate taking him. The Bills have a lot of needs. So the Bills can stay with their own draft board and acquire a player who will fill a need. If the Bills believe that there is a long term franchise qb available then go ahead and get that player. But they will be making a mistake if they reach for a qb. I trust Nix more that I trust the owner who has made statements that he wants a franchise qb taken in the next draft. It will be interesting to see how this draft scenario plays out. I don't want them to spend any kind of first round pick on him. If they're going to settle at the QB position, they can settle in the second or third rounds.
JohnC Posted November 21, 2010 Posted November 21, 2010 BTW, the current RWS lease is up in 2013 - shouldn't some local pols be talking up locking them in for another decade? Ralph is not going to sign any long or medium term lease with the county. What he will probably do is negotiate a year to year lease. In no way is he going to sign a lease that will when the time comes inhibit his sale options. Even in his previous lease with the county he had an easy buyout or termination clause if he decided to sell. He even worked out a lease that an outside buyer could on reasonable terms buy out the lease. The County authorities have little leverage with the owner. The owner has the upper hand and he is not reluctant to exercise that leverage. The old baron owner might not be a good football owner but no one can ever deny that he is a hell of a businessman.
/dev/null Posted November 21, 2010 Posted November 21, 2010 QB=P1 (Priority 1--there can be only one P1) Kind of like Highlander
The Dean Posted November 21, 2010 Posted November 21, 2010 Here's what I have for the next consensus mock draft at DraftTek: QB=P1 (Priority 1--there can be only one P1) LT=P2 DE=P2 OLB=P2 RT=P3 NT=P3 ILB=P3 WR=P4 All other positions are listed at P9. There is no such thing as P7 or P8, and I haven't used any P6's. We used to be the first pick but in the next draft, Carolina is. If Andrew Luck is taken by Carolina, then the computer will give the Bills the P2 player that is highest on the Big Board located here. Right now, it's Nick Fairley, who we see as a Marcus Stroud type DE with more speed, decent moves, and strong push. Definitely a headache requiring 2 blockers (and occasionally 3). Everybody happy with the positional needs, especially the P2's? Astro Bills Analyst for DraftTek.com I'd make OLB priority 1 and OT (can you really know if an OT will end up being a LT or RT?) and QB priority 2. But hey, that's me.
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