I Have No Doubt In My Mind

[The Cincinnati Kid]

I don't comment all that often but I always step to the plate when my boy Hamden's Revenge is being challenged. Listen, Locker has a ton of POTENTIAL. No doubt, he could be very good. You know who else had a ton of Potential? A young man named Trent Edwards, who had the endorsement of the late Bill Walsh. Kyle Boller had a ton of Potential. David Carr, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Cade McNown, Ryan Leaf, Heath Shuler, Alex Smith etc. All of these guys had the Potential to be great, but they didn't pan out. The ones who looked like sure things (Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer, Matt Ryan, etc) were and have been great for their teams. Locker is perennial loser winning only 12 starts out of 46. To me, a guy getting recruited to play at a school with a "top shelf" QB would like to go and play with him to help everyone's chances of playing in the NFL. So what gives? The guy is inaccurate, fragile, soft, there seems to be no fire, and he just doesn't win. What makes anyone think he will win at the next level? I am not sold on him and I wouldn't draft him anywhere before the second half of the second round, and only that high because I would hold him as a trading piece.

[mrpunchy]

I would draft an LT 1st, Best remaining QB 2nd. Except, no more california quarterbacks. The last few haven't worked out....

 

If they don't take a QB with the first then there is little reason to take one at all.

[1B4IDie]

Maybe you were thinking of the Rule of 26-27-60? It seems like a better QB litmus.

Its the same system Lopez added Wonderlic to Lewin's observations on Football outsiders and then put hard cut off numbers, that is the evolution that I eluded to earlier.

 

JaMarcus Russell passes the 27-60 part so that makes me worried about this rule.

 

So JaMarcus was 24-30-60.

 

So I'm not really putting too much credence into these "rules" anymore.

 

They look like loose guidelines.

 

Or Just another tool to help decide between two candidates.

If Luck comes out in 2011, assuming a good wonderlic which I think everyone would agree he will kill the wonderlic, he'll be 30+ -21!-63ish

 

Mallet will be, lets assume Mallet gets a 26 on the wonderlic, 26-30-57!

 

Locker would be,lets just assume Locker gets a 26 on the wonderlic, 26-35-57!

 

I'd still take Luck first even though he doesn't meet the 27 part of the rule.

 

Even if Mallet finishes the last 3 games with 100% completion percentage I don't think he will finish his career above 60% completion percentage.

Thats news to me.

Edited November 18, 2010 by Levitre + Wang = Wood

[Munch]

Its the same system Lopez added Wonderlic to Lewin's observations on Football outsiders and then put hard cut off numbers, that is the evolution that I eluded to earlier.

 

JaMarcus Russell passes the 27-60 part so that makes me worried about this rule.

 

So JaMarcus was 24-30-60.

 

So I'm not really putting too much credence into these "rules" anymore.

 

They look like loose guidelines.

 

Or Just another tool to help decide between two candidates.

If Luck comes out in 2011, assuming a good wonderlic which I think everyone would agree he will kill the wonderlic, he'll be 30+ -21!-63ish

 

Mallet will be, lets assume Mallet gets a 26 on the wonderlic, 26-30-57!

 

Locker would be,lets just assume Locker gets a 26 on the wonderlic, 26-35-57!

 

I'd still take Luck first even though he doesn't meet the 27 part of the rule.

 

Even if Mallet finishes the last 3 games with 100% completion percentage I don't think he will finish his career above 60% completion percentage.

Thats news to me.

 

 

I dont put much into these rules either. And for the record, i would take 1 Luck over 3 Lockers, and i share many peoples sentiments about not winning many games. But the talent is there for sure- with him. But if you watched any games this year, Washington is a terrible team. Locker is the only bright spot. The Nebraska game scares me bad, but as a QB you need protection and playmakers to be successful. Locker has neither.

 

Time will tell I guess, like always. But I still believe he will be a solid NFL QB. Then again, I also thought Alex Smith would be too

 

In the end, its all about the initial coaching/development, and even then its always a crapshoot still

[Captain Hindsight]

I don't comment all that often but I always step to the plate when my boy Hamden's Revenge is being challenged. Listen, Locker has a ton of POTENTIAL. No doubt, he could be very good. You know who else had a ton of Potential? A young man named Trent Edwards, who had the endorsement of the late Bill Walsh. Kyle Boller had a ton of Potential. David Carr, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Cade McNown, Ryan Leaf, Heath Shuler, Alex Smith etc. All of these guys had the Potential to be great, but they didn't pan out. The ones who looked like sure things (Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer, Matt Ryan, etc) were and have been great for their teams. Locker is perennial loser winning only 12 starts out of 46. To me, a guy getting recruited to play at a school with a "top shelf" QB would like to go and play with him to help everyone's chances of playing in the NFL. So what gives? The guy is inaccurate, fragile, soft, there seems to be no fire, and he just doesn't win. What makes anyone think he will win at the next level? I am not sold on him and I wouldn't draft him anywhere before the second half of the second round, and only that high because I would hold him as a trading piece.

Thanks champ

[BringBackFergy]

I agree. Hope that scenario plays out. I've watched Locker play at least 6 times and I'm still waiting to be impressed. Either he bails out and runs or throws a very short out pass and misses quite often. I'd take Mallett in a heartbeat if Luck is unattainable.

 

Agreed. Have watched Locker a few times and waiting for the fireworks. Sometimes I think Mel "Diaper" touts a few different guys and then hopes one of them pans out. All I heard from Kiper last year was "Locker, Locker, Locker"...now I see Locker throwing past his receivers by five yards open in the endzone.

 

The excuses that some give such as "he has a bad O line" or "his receivers drop the ball" puts into question the theory that a great QB makes a team better (much like we have been discussing with how we don't need to draft O linemen because a good QB like Manning makes his team better even with O line deficiencies, TE weakness, etc).

 

If Locker is such a stud, shouldn't he have brought his team to another level this year?

 

Yes, he is fast...but if we need a quick QB, wait for Taylor Martinez from NE...but Locker is not the guy for Buffalo.

[BuffaloBaumer]

Well, I'll be the first one to admit that the few times I have seen Locker play, he has looked relatively good. That, on top of the hype, was pushing me in one direction. Hearing how he has free fallen in recent weeks along with tonights performance makes me want to stay far away from this kid. It seems as though the coaches are afraid to even let this kid throw the ball.

 

I suppose now it's time to see how Mallett plays over the next few weeks and if that flames out, you have to go heavy D. Pretty bizarre how only 2 months ago, this was supposed to be the deepest QB class in some time. From the way it's looking, if Luck does not come out, it could be one of the worst.........

[Captain Hindsight]

Well, I'll be the first one to admit that the few times I have seen Locker play, he has looked relatively good. That, on top of the hype, was pushing me in one direction. Hearing how he has free fallen in recent weeks along with tonights performance makes me want to stay far away from this kid. It seems as though the coaches are afraid to even let this kid throw the ball.

 

I suppose now it's time to see how Mallett plays over the next few weeks and if that flames out, you have to go heavy D. Pretty bizarre how only 2 months ago, this was supposed to be the deepest QB class in some time. From the way it's looking, if Luck does not come out, it could be one of the worst.........

Every year is the deepest qb class

 

But i give you props from coming back and saying you may not have been right. As a fellow poster i appreciate that

 

This ones on me

[BillsVet]

I would draft an LT 1st, Best remaining QB 2nd. Except, no more california quarterbacks. The last few haven't worked out....

 

Which one? It doesn't appear there's a Jake Long or Walter Jones waiting to be had at he top of the first round. Of course it's 5 months out, but it doesn't appear anyone is that good.

 

I'm going to hold out hope until Draft Day that this becomes 2004 all over again for Buddy...Nix Trades down a few spots, gets some extra Picks in 2011 and 2012, and Drafts Ryan Mallett wherever we end up...To me that would be the perfect scenario...But that's just me...

 

For the life of me I can't see this happening. The dynamics in 2004 will be vastly different than in 2011, principally money. E. Manning's contract in 2004 will be nowhere near what the top pick in 2011 receives, especially if that's a QB.

 

If Luck doesn't come out, the Bills still take the best QB available for one simple reason: RW will order Buddy to take one to create a marketing angle after a disaster of a season, regardless of what the football people think. And then they'll have issues signing the guy.

[Mango]

the last few qb classes seem super sub par. the guys who where picked high and are supposed to be the replacements for the Brady's and Mannings simply arent cut from the same clothe. Eli is good but nowhere near great. Rivers plays well, but are always coming up short, and being out west makes it difficult to follow. Alex Smith and David Carr are out or on their way out. I wish Big Ben was in jail. Romo might be the most overated player of all time. Sanchez is borderline awful on a good team. Stafford has the guts but cant stay healthy. Freeman might turn out to be the best in his class.

 

How many times does Warner have to ride the bench or play in the Arena league to realize he is a HOFer. How long did/should Garcia have started. Kitna is pretty well in Dallas. For all the hype about new comer Kolb, a guy fresh out of prison could be league MVP. The NFL has a serious issue heading there way, and that is their product seems to be depreciating with every draft class. Injuries are up because players are no longer skilled. QB's cant read defenses to keep their team mates safe, and recievers dont know where to be or where the wholes are. As steroids become more prevelent, teh job of the OL backpedaling while holding off a 350 lbs d-lineman become more and more difficult(this is the reason for the 3 yard rule in the CFL)

 

The NFL/Teams put no stock in investing in an athlete and progressing their investment. With the abilty to cut a player with little to no contract or monetary loss, franchises have a revolving door of performing right now, rather than protecting their 50mil(bradford). with college ball becoming big business, it is all the same. recruits come in, cant perform transfer, quit, drop out. hell auburn offers a class every year worth credit hours toward a degree that helps them find agents, and handle the draft. i love watching football, but i would say that the product on teh field across the board is going down

[Munch]

the last few qb classes seem super sub par. the guys who where picked high and are supposed to be the replacements for the Brady's and Mannings simply arent cut from the same clothe. Eli is good but nowhere near great. Rivers plays well, but are always coming up short, and being out west makes it difficult to follow. Alex Smith and David Carr are out or on their way out. I wish Big Ben was in jail. Romo might be the most overated player of all time. Sanchez is borderline awful on a good team. Stafford has the guts but cant stay healthy. Freeman might turn out to be the best in his class.

 

How many times does Warner have to ride the bench or play in the Arena league to realize he is a HOFer. How long did/should Garcia have started. Kitna is pretty well in Dallas. For all the hype about new comer Kolb, a guy fresh out of prison could be league MVP. The NFL has a serious issue heading there way, and that is their product seems to be depreciating with every draft class. Injuries are up because players are no longer skilled. QB's cant read defenses to keep their team mates safe, and recievers dont know where to be or where the wholes are. As steroids become more prevelent, teh job of the OL backpedaling while holding off a 350 lbs d-lineman become more and more difficult(this is the reason for the 3 yard rule in the CFL)

 

The NFL/Teams put no stock in investing in an athlete and progressing their investment. With the abilty to cut a player with little to no contract or monetary loss, franchises have a revolving door of performing right now, rather than protecting their 50mil(bradford). with college ball becoming big business, it is all the same. recruits come in, cant perform transfer, quit, drop out. hell auburn offers a class every year worth credit hours toward a degree that helps them find agents, and handle the draft. i love watching football, but i would say that the product on teh field across the board is going down

 

Last time I checked, the Peytons, Bradys and Favres are few and far between, and always have been. This will always be the case as well. This is also why they are considered "great". Very few QBs are legitimately good, and there are even fewer great ones. And its pretty apparant that the quality of players in the NFL is better than ever before. And there are several good QBs that have been taken in the past few years. Great QBs take time to become great, and guys like Rivers, Ryan, Eli and Ben are the future and present of the NFL, and could potentially make the great list. And as far as Vick possibly being MVP, he is now in his 2nd season back, and far from being "fresh out of prison". Not to mention hes only 30, and a former pro bowler and 1st overall choice, with the best QB coach hes ever had. Because a player like Carr and Smith didnt pan out, does not mean caliber of players are going down.

 

You are either Ryan Fitzpatrick and trying to convince fans to stop demanding a QB (unlikely) or you just really dont understand the game of football.

[1B4IDie]

Last time I checked, the Peytons, Bradys and Favres are few and far between, and always have been. This will always be the case as well. This is also why they are considered "great". Very few QBs are legitimately good, and there are even fewer great ones. And its pretty apparant that the quality of players in the NFL is better than ever before. And there are several good QBs that have been taken in the past few years. Great QBs take time to become great, and guys like Rivers, Ryan, Eli and Ben are the future and present of the NFL, and could potentially make the great list. And as far as Vick possibly being MVP, he is now in his 2nd season back, and far from being "fresh out of prison". Not to mention hes only 30, and a former pro bowler and 1st overall choice, with the best QB coach hes ever had. Because a player like Carr and Smith didnt pan out, does not mean caliber of players are going down.

 

You are either Ryan Fitzpatrick and trying to convince fans to stop demanding a QB (unlikely) or you just really dont understand the game of football.

I have to agree. I thought that was the strangest post by Mango.

QB play is at an all time high. You're forgetting about Aaron. Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, Matt Shaub, Sam, Bradford, And Jay Cutler.

Not to mention More questionable QBs like Carson Palmer, Colt McCoy, Vince Young, and Troy Smith.

 

Steroids? Really? I didn't know it was 1985? It's HGH.

If you think usage has increased from the 80s, you've white washed the past.

 

The NFL has always had a revolving door. That has not changed. So why would that matter in 2010 but not 1985. Doesn't make much sense.

 

There is a better product on the field. In all reality the 2010 Baltimore Ravens would do the Super Bowl shuffle all over the 1985 Chicago Bears it would be 51-0 blowout with the Ravens winning. The fridge was 299 pounds and got in trouble for being over 300, an average NT is 330 pounds and thats on the small side. Players are bigger stronger faster and the NFL is better for it.

Edited November 19, 2010 by Levitre + Wang = Wood

[BringBackFergy]

the last few qb classes seem super sub par. the guys who where picked high and are supposed to be the replacements for the Brady's and Mannings simply arent cut from the same clothe. Eli is good but nowhere near great. Rivers plays well, but are always coming up short, and being out west makes it difficult to follow. Alex Smith and David Carr are out or on their way out. I wish Big Ben was in jail. Romo might be the most overated player of all time. Sanchez is borderline awful on a good team. Stafford has the guts but cant stay healthy. Freeman might turn out to be the best in his class.

 

How many times does Warner have to ride the bench or play in the Arena league to realize he is a HOFer. How long did/should Garcia have started. Kitna is pretty well in Dallas. For all the hype about new comer Kolb, a guy fresh out of prison could be league MVP. The NFL has a serious issue heading there way, and that is their product seems to be depreciating with every draft class. Injuries are up because players are no longer skilled. QB's cant read defenses to keep their team mates safe, and recievers dont know where to be or where the wholes are. As steroids become more prevelent, teh job of the OL backpedaling while holding off a 350 lbs d-lineman become more and more difficult(this is the reason for the 3 yard rule in the CFL)

 

The NFL/Teams put no stock in investing in an athlete and progressing their investment. With the abilty to cut a player with little to no contract or monetary loss, franchises have a revolving door of performing right now, rather than protecting their 50mil(bradford). with college ball becoming big business, it is all the same. recruits come in, cant perform transfer, quit, drop out. hell auburn offers a class every year worth credit hours toward a degree that helps them find agents, and handle the draft. i love watching football, but i would say that the product on teh field across the board is going down

 

Holy Kielbasa!! You just basically addressed every issue known to the average football man (and woman).

With those problems now resolved, what are your thought on world hunger? The middle east? Pat down searches and are they a violation of our right against unreasonable searches and seizures?

[BuffaloBaumer]

Every year is the deepest qb class

 

But i give you props from coming back and saying you may not have been right. As a fellow poster i appreciate that

 

This ones on me

 

I think that I am settling in to the idea that Fitz will be the starter here and we need to draft the best D guy available. Hopefully, they can find some sort of LB in free agency and this will re-energize the secondary that most of us thought was elite......Fitz will most likely make that mistake or two in the game but with a much improved D, maybe the Bills can start winning these close ones.....

[zow2]

Here's an article that talks about Harbaugh probably leaving Stanford sooner than later....

 

http://www.mercurynews.com/sports/ci_16653442?nclick_check=1

[PromoTheRobot]

I think that I am settling in to the idea that Fitz will be the starter here and we need to draft the best D guy available. Hopefully, they can find some sort of LB in free agency and this will re-energize the secondary that most of us thought was elite......Fitz will most likely make that mistake or two in the game but with a much improved D, maybe the Bills can start winning these close ones.....

Watch any NFL game and it's hard to find a QB who doesn't make a bad throw. Fitz is no worse than half the starting QBs in the NFL right now.

 

PTR

[KOKBILLS]

Even if Mallet finishes the last 3 games with 100% completion percentage I don't think he will finish his career above 60% completion percentage.

Thats news to me.

 

Mallett is 61% at Arkansas in over 700 attempts...He's 67% this year and I think it's pretty clear he's showing improvement every year...He was forced into action early at Michigan and had a TERRIBLE completion % that year (43.3%)...Mallett was REALLY raw that Year, but to his credit he was 4-0 as a Starter and basically saved Michigan's Season by not doing enough to lose Games when Henne unexpectedly went down ...

 

I'm a Michigan Fan...I've watched Mallett from the 1st time he entered a Game at Michigan and I've seen a lot of his Games at Arkansas over the past two years...I realize he gets ripped pretty hard at times about accuracy, not being to bright...etc...And of coarse there are some pretty nasty rumors out there, none of which have been substantiated whatsoever, that go far beyond the Football field...I don't think Mallett is perfect whatsoever...And it's going to take a little time for him to develop in the NFL...the same way it took him a little time to get Petrino's system down...I think Gailey is just about the perfect HC for Mallett in the NFL...I see what he's done for Fitz and it makes me drool thinking about what he could do for a Kid with the raw talent Mallett possesses...The thing I think is most important about Mallett is, for whatever reason, his Teammates play REALLY hard when he is around...He's 20-7 as a Starter in the Big Ten and SEC...That's pretty darn good...The Razorbacks were 13-12 in the 2 Seasons before Mallett, they're 16-7 since and Nationally Ranked at #13...

 

Mallett likely has 3 games left vs. Ranked opponents...This week vs. #21 (at Miss St.) and next week vs. #5 (vs. LSU at Little Rock), then the Bowl game...These should be 3 more REAL tough tests for him to show how far he's come...But I'm going to be paying as much attention to how Arkansas does overall in these 3 Games...If they can come out of these 3 Games 2-1 that would mean Mallett was 22-8 as a Starter Career wise and 10-3 as a Sr. playing in the toughest Conference in College Football...I'd say that's not too bad...I'm pretty sure Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey will agree...We'll see soon enough...

[1B4IDie]

Mallett is 61% at Arkansas in over 700 attempts...He's 67% this year and I think it's pretty clear he's showing improvement every year...He was forced into action early at Michigan and had a TERRIBLE completion % that year (43.3%)...Mallett was REALLY raw that Year, but to his credit he was 4-0 as a Starter and basically saved Michigan's Season by not doing enough to lose Games when Henne unexpectedly went down ...

 

I'm a Michigan Fan...I've watched Mallett from the 1st time he entered a Game at Michigan and I've seen a lot of his Games at Arkansas over the past two years...I realize he gets ripped pretty hard at times about accuracy, not being to bright...etc...And of coarse there are some pretty nasty rumors out there, none of which have been substantiated whatsoever, that go far beyond the Football field...I don't think Mallett is perfect whatsoever...And it's going to take a little time for him to develop in the NFL...the same way it took him a little time to get Petrino's system down...I think Gailey is just about the perfect HC for Mallett in the NFL...I see what he's done for Fitz and it makes me drool thinking about what he could do for a Kid with the raw talent Mallett possesses...The thing I think is most important about Mallett is, for whatever reason, his Teammates play REALLY hard when he is around...He's 20-7 as a Starter in the Big Ten and SEC...That's pretty darn good...The Razorbacks were 13-12 in the 2 Seasons before Mallett, they're 16-7 since and Nationally Ranked at #13...

 

Mallett likely has 3 games left vs. Ranked opponents...This week vs. #21 (at Miss St.) and next week vs. #5 (vs. LSU at Little Rock), then the Bowl game...These should be 3 more REAL tough tests for him to show how far he's come...But I'm going to be paying as much attention to how Arkansas does overall in these 3 Games...If they can come out of these 3 Games 2-1 that would mean Mallett was 22-8 as a Starter Career wise and 10-3 as a Sr. playing in the toughest Conference in College Football...I'd say that's not too bad...I'm pretty sure Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey will agree...We'll see soon enough...

Dude, I like Mallet, Check the signature.

I'm just discussing the Lewin system. I assumed Mallet would be over 60% for his career but he is going to finish just under.

 

If the Bills draft Mallet I'll be happy, my biggest concern with him is durability. Worst case scenario imo he is Matt Stafford, but that's still TBD, as Stafford looks good when he is then gets knocked around by an O-Line that is far worse than the Bills and can't play for 6-8 weeks at a time.

 

Mallet and Luck are both good prospects and pass the eye test. I'll be happy with either with the edge to Luck.

But Luck doesn't walk on water he still has some learning. This week against Cal is huge.

Every Bills fan should be DVRing the Akansas and Stanford game this week.

Cal may not be a great team but on the road in a late season Pac-10 game, there will be lots of pressure, I expect Luck to do look great.

Mallet has a tough stretch here and these games are going to be very important to prove his draft stock.

Edited November 19, 2010 by Levitre + Wang = Wood

[KOKBILLS]

Dude, I like Mallet, Check the signature.

I'm just discussing the Lewin system. I assumed Mallet would be over 60% for his career but he is going to finish just under.

 

I knew you did...Hope I did not come off like I was attacking or anything...Just wanted to talk a bit about the Completion % thing and Mallett's effect on winning Football Games...That's all...

 

Peace...