The race for the #1 pick

[Mr. WEO]

There are two team tied for worst in the league, the Carolina Panthers (1-8) & the Buffalo Bills (1-8). As has been discussed if two teams have identical records at seasons end the team with the easier strength of schedule gets the better pick (the thinking being they have the same record vs. worse opponents, thus making them the worse team).

 

The Panthers schedule is as follows:

 

1 Sun, Sep 12 @New York L31-18 (6-3)

2 Sun, Sep 19 vsTampa Bay L20-7 (6-3)

3 Sun, Sep 26 vsCincinnati L20-7 (2-7)

4 Sun, Oct 3 @New Orleans L16-14 (6-3)

5 Sun, Oct 10 vsChicago L23-6 (6-3)

6 BYE WEEK

7 Sun, Oct 24 vsSan Francisco (3-6)

8 Sun, Oct 31 @St. Louis L20-10 (4-5)

9 Sun, Nov 7 vsNew Orleans L34-3 (6-3)

10 Sun, Nov 14 @Tampa Bay L31-16 (6-3)

11 Sun, Nov 21 vsBaltimore 1:00 PM (6-3)

12 Sun, Nov 28 @Cleveland 1:00 PM (3-6)

13 Sun, Dec 5 @Seattle 4:15 PM (5-4)

14 Sun, Dec 12 vsAtlanta 1:00 (7-2)

15 Sun, Dec 19 vsArizona 1:00 PM (3-6)

16 Thu, Dec 23 @Pittsburgh 8:20 (6-2)

17 Sun, Jan 2 @Atlanta (7-2)

 

Combined Record of Opponents: (82-61)57.34%

 

The Bills schedule is as follows:

 

1 Sun, Sep 12 vsMiami L15-10 (5-4)

2 Sun, Sep 19 @Green Bay L34-7 (6-3)

3 Sun, Sep 26 @New England L38-30 (6-2)

4 Sun, Oct 3 vsNew York L38-14 (7-2)

5 Sun, Oct 10 vsJacksonville L36-26 (5-4)

6 BYE WEEK

7 Sun, Oct 24 @Baltimore L37-34 OT (6-3)

8 Sun, Oct 31 @Kansas City L13-10 OT (5-4)

9 Sun, Nov 7 vsChicago L22-19 (6-3)

10 Sun, Nov 14 vsDetroit W14-12 (2-7)

11 Sun, Nov 21 @Cincinnati 1:00 PM (2-7)

12 Sun, Nov 28 vsPittsburgh 1:00 PM (6-2)

13 Sun, Dec 5 @Minnesota 1:00 PM (3-6)

14 Sun, Dec 12 vsCleveland 1:00 PM (3-6)

15 Sun, Dec 19 @Miami 1:00 PM (5-4)

16 Sun, Dec 26 vsNew England 1:00 PM (6-2)

17 Sun, Jan 2 @New York 1:00 PM (7-2)

 

Combined Record of Opponents: (80-61) 56.74%

 

If New England holds on and beats the Steelers, the Bills and Panthers will have identical SOS both at 82-62.

In the end I see the Bills finishing with the 2-3 pick in the draft because it'll be extremely difficult to finish worse than the Panthers. I see the Bills as a 3 win team and I don't think the Panthers get another 2 wins this season, time will tell.

Who are the 2 wins left?

[zow2]

I think the Bills are gonna be fine if they want to draft a QB in round 1. Let's assume they pass Carolina and Detroit to pick 3rd. Detroit has their QB in Stafford and I think Clausen showed enough improvement yesterday that the Panthers are not going to pick a QB at #1 overall. They're going to want an immediate difference maker not another "maybe" at QB for 2 years down the road. The only hangup is if another team wants to trade up into that spot. That's always a risk.

[I hate the Bills !]

Buffalo still has to play 6 playoffs teams from last year, so don't expect miracles. Maybe they beat Cincinnati or Cleveland or Minnesota or win a late game due to starters not playing the last 2 weeks.

[buffaloaggie]

Who are the 2 wins left?

The two worst teams on our schedule are both away (CIN and MINN), and the Bills do not stand much of a chance against Peyton Hillis and the Browns. The Bills do stand a chance with the Bengals and Vikings, so maybe those are the wins they were referring to. Carolina has a shot at a win against Arizona and that's about it.

 

Most mocks have Carolina picking A.J. Green, so IF Luck did come out, and the Bills had the #2, we'd most likely get him. The thing that scares me is in that scenario, if Luck did come out, a team like the Cowboys could jump us and take Luck at #1, since the guy the Panthers like would probably be there at #3 or #4.

[truth on hold]

The two worst teams on our schedule are both away (CIN and MINN), and the Bills do not stand much of a chance against Peyton Hillis and the Browns. The Bills do stand a chance with the Bengals and Vikings, so maybe those are the wins they were referring to. Carolina has a shot at a win against Arizona and that's about it.

 

Most mocks have Carolina picking A.J. Green, so IF Luck did come out, and the Bills had the #2, we'd most likely get him. The thing that scares me is in that scenario, if Luck did come out, a team like the Cowboys could jump us and take Luck at #1, since the guy the Panthers like would probably be there at #3 or #4.

In that scenario we'd try to trade up too. If we're #2 overall the threat we'd use to insent Panthers to trade with us (our #1 + one of our 4ths, for example), would be that we're going to take Green @2 if we don't get Luck.

Edited November 15, 2010 by Joe_the_6_pack

[buffaloaggie]

In that scenario we'd try to trade up too. If we're #2 overall the threat we'd use to insent Panthers to trade with us (our #1 + one of our 4ths, for example), would be that we're going to take Green @2 if we don't get Luck.

I was looking at the draft value chart. It would take a 3rd and a 4th to move up that one spot, according to it. But yes, we couldn't afford to let another team get the #1 overall, if it meant losing Luck.

 

NFL Draft position values

[95altima12]

twice

 

Couldn't remember so went to their site and they drafted 3!!! qbs... JC in second, Edwards in the third and Pike in sixth!

 

Couldn't remember so went to their site and they drafted 3!!! qbs... JC in second, Edwards in the third and Pike in sixth!

 

ooooooo he's a WR now n/m

[Saint Doug]

For all the reasons states above (Pike and Claussen), I really don't see Carolina going QB either. It doesn't really matter that Claussen is sucking it up right now as all rookie QBs do. They have way too many holes to fill to just so easily give up on two young QBs. Plus, they would be admitting they wasted 2 draft picks last year. Suppose the next sure-bet Adrian Peterson was in this coming draft, would we draft him?

[buffaloaggie]

Suppose the next sure-bet Adrian Peterson was in this coming draft, would we draft him?

Wasn't that C.J. Spiller?

 

If there is a sure-bet, we'd bypass him for someone with raw talent and potential.

[SouthernMan]

Right...Okey doke...

 

Of the last 9 Super Bowl winners only the Tampa Bay Bucs were not built around a QB...Big Ben, Eli and Peyton were all Top 10 Picks...Where would New Orleans or The Patsies be without Brees or Brady? How many Teams would have been more than happy to give a Top 10 Pick for either Brady or Brees had they known what type of QB's and leaders they would turn out to be...Half of the NFL Network is touting Atlanta as the best Team in the NFC...The same Falcons built around QB Matt Ryan...The Ravens bounced back into Title contention after they Drafted Flacco even though their Defense is no where near as good as it used to be...The Packers saved the future of their Franchise by Drafting Aaron Rodgers when everyone else passed on him...

 

The premise that good NFL Teams are not built around QB's is a joke...Sure you still have to support those good QB's with solid Defenses, a decent O-Line, and good skill position players...But it all gets easier when you get the star QB...Ryan Fitzpatrick is a solid Player, but no where near a great QB...If Luck comes out and The Bills Pick #1 Overall they will Draft Luck...Period end of story...If they feel any other QB is a Franchise QB and they are still around when The Bills Pick, they will pick that QB...It's all but a done deal...The only questions now are where will they Pick and who will Pick ahead of them that may take a QB...No matter what the odds are still against the Bills getting a 1st round QB purely because Luck likely stays in. But you can write this one in pen, if The Bills get the chance they will take the Franchise QB in the 1st Round...And they would be right to do so...

 

If the QB was the final piece, or even one of the final pieces to the puzzle I'd say go for it. But waste megamillions on the first pick to watch the guy get beat up, frustrated, and lose confidence is not the answer for the Bills. If they have a solid unit in place, it makes it a lot easier to groom the inexperienced QB or to attract a decent free agent QB.

 

The Bills need an impact player or two on defense. On offense they have a good running game. They may have the makings of a decent receiving corp if the injured Easley comes through on the potential he showed before being injured, and the continued play and improvement of Nelson, Johnson, Parrish, and Evans.

 

And considering the Bills recent draft history, they need to steer clear of the QB position, which historically has been very unpredictable. The NFL scrap heap is littered with "can't miss" QBs taken in the first few picks.

 

The other thing that is never mentioned is that Fitzpatrick is still growing and learning. He's a young QB. When it was Rob Johnson or Losman, all we ever heard was "they just need time". Fitzpatrick has the equivilant of approximately 2 seasons worth of playing under his belt. He's playing pretty good ball right now, and he may show further improvement.

 

And you think the Bills should spend the millions and the precious 1st round pick on a QB?

Edited November 15, 2010 by DML2005

[pimp on da' net]

How about the race to finish 8-8? Who the hell cares about the number one pick

 

+1,000,000,000

 

Why are these guys so consumed with the draft at this point? I could see if this were the last few games but the org has to develope a winning mentality first. I know ppl believe the build thru the draft crap that OBD is selling but FA was designed to address your needs and the draft is where you acquire and develope prospects. Its as if A. Luck is a given to be a franchise QB in the leaque.

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

How did it work out for the Colts?

 

 

Not so well between 1990 and 1998.....

[2003Contenders]

I for one do NOT hope we finish 8-8 or anything close to it....that would just match what we have been doing in previous seasons.....

 

If we are going to be a bad team....lets be a bad team.....evaluate players....and actually get the benefit of being a bad team which means get some blue chip talent opportunities

 

 

Uh, obviously 8-8 is not going to happen. But let's just assume for a moment that it is even in the realm of possibility. That would mean victories over the Pats, Jets, Dolphins, Steelers in addition to 3 other at least middling teams. Do you really think that would match the smokescreen 7-9 records posted by those Jauron teams? Anyone who doesn't believe that this is the best possible scenario -- ending the season with 8 straight victories over such quality competition to finish on a high note -- really hasn't truly thought about this very much.

[KOKBILLS]

If the QB was the final piece, or even one of the final pieces to the puzzle I'd say go for it. But waste megamillions on the first pick to watch the guy get beat up, frustrated, and lose confidence is not the answer for the Bills. If they have a solid unit in place, it makes it a lot easier to groom the inexperienced QB or to attract a decent free agent QB.

 

The Bills need an impact player or two on defense. On offense they have a good running game. They may have the makings of a decent receiving corp if the injured Easley comes through on the potential he showed before being injured, and the continued play and improvement of Nelson, Johnson, Parrish, and Evans.

 

And considering the Bills recent draft history, they need to steer clear of the QB position, which historically has been very unpredictable. The NFL scrap heap is littered with "can't miss" QBs taken in the first few picks.

 

The other thing that is never mentioned is that Fitzpatrick is still growing and learning. He's a young QB. When it was Rob Johnson or Losman, all we ever heard was "they just need time". Fitzpatrick has the equivilant of approximately 2 seasons worth of playing under his belt. He's playing pretty good ball right now, and he may show further improvement.

 

And you think the Bills should spend the millions and the precious 1st round pick on a QB?

 

Final piece? So were the Manning Brothers the final piece in Indy and NY? What about Matt Ryan in Atlanta? Final Piece? Unless you Traded to get into the Top of the Draft did you not pretty much have to suck the Year before?

 

If the QB's name is Luck or Mallett then absolutely, 100%, positively yes...I would spend whatever it took...That's what great Teams do...Were The Jets afraid to gamble with Favre after going 4-12? Were they then afraid to Trade up and grab the Rookie in the Top 10? Spending the money on the right QB should be the absolute last worry...And of coarse there is risk...There is always risk when you're trying to be excellent...I'll be the first one to say right here there is plenty of risk in taking a QB high...But sooner or later, if you have the opportunity, it's a risk you have to take if you want to be great...And you trust in your Coaches and Scouting Staff that you will be able to fill all the other holes...

 

I swear...With some of the stuff I read around here it makes me wonder if certain Bills Fans are just plain scared of taking the chance at being better than good...There's no magic formula necessarily...But one thing is certin...It's a HELL of a lot easier to do with a great QB...And of coarse no one knows for certain if Luck or Mallett is going to be great...But at this point it's a chance The Bills HAVE to take if they want to spark this Franchise...I'm confident if they have that chance they will take it...And I'll commend them for doing so...Because if they do so they'll prove to me they are trying to be not just good, but great...

[1B4IDie]

Final piece? So were the Manning Brothers the final piece in Indy and NY? What about Matt Ryan in Atlanta? Final Piece? Unless you Traded to get into the Top of the Draft did you not pretty much have to suck the Year before?

 

If the QB's name is Luck or Mallett then absolutely, 100%, positively yes...I would spend whatever it took...That's what great Teams do...Were The Jets afraid to gamble with Favre after going 4-12? Were they then afraid to Trade up and grab the Rookie in the Top 10? Spending the money on the right QB should be the absolute last worry...And of coarse there is risk...There is always risk when you're trying to be excellent...I'll be the first one to say right here there is plenty of risk in taking a QB high...But sooner or later, if you have the opportunity, it's a risk you have to take if you want to be great...And you trust in your Coaches and Scouting Staff that you will be able to fill all the other holes...

 

I swear...With some of the stuff I read around here it makes me wonder if certain Bills Fans are just plain scared of taking the chance at being better than good...There's no magic formula necessarily...But one thing is certin...It's a HELL of a lot easier to do with a great QB...And of coarse no one knows for certain if Luck or Mallett is going to be great...But at this point it's a chance The Bills HAVE to take if they want to spark this Franchise...I'm confident if they have that chance they will take it...And I'll commend them for doing so...Because if they do so they'll prove to me they are trying to be not just good, but great...

 

If you discount the stupidity of trading up to get LOSSman, or you write it off as a calculated risk that failed, the Bills haven't drafted a QB in the first round since 1983. Thats right Jim Kelly (#14 overall, not #1 overall.)

 

So since 1980 the Bills are 1 for 2 on first round QBs.

 

Its probably about time this Franchise roll the dice on a 1st round QB.

Luck and Mallet both fit the bill.

 

But the play of Fitzy also plays into the decision if Luck or Mallet are not there. Don't reach for Locker, or Cam Newton in the 1st.

(check the signature)

Edited November 15, 2010 by Levitre + Wang = Wood

[billnutinphoenix]

I only care about #1 if Luck declares. If he doesn't I am fine drafting 2-4

 

 

My sentiments exactly....

[bobobonators]

Uh, obviously 8-8 is not going to happen. But let's just assume for a moment that it is even in the realm of possibility. That would mean victories over the Pats, Jets, Dolphins, Steelers in addition to 3 other at least middling teams. Do you really think that would match the smokescreen 7-9 records posted by those Jauron teams? Anyone who doesn't believe that this is the best possible scenario -- ending the season with 8 straight victories over such quality competition to finish on a high note -- really hasn't truly thought about this very much.

 

but then we wouldn't get the #1 pick and have the possibility of drafting possibly the #1 qb in the draft, once he possibly declares, i hear he can possibly be the next peyton manning (or possibly better), and i hear he possibly has better tools than any qb to ever play football.

 

I know this because anything is possible after playing 1.5 seasons of college ball at Stanford.

[scurdog1]

http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html

[billsfreak]

I for one do NOT hope we finish 8-8 or anything close to it....that would just match what we have been doing in previous seasons.....

 

If we are going to be a bad team....lets be a bad team.....evaluate players....and actually get the benefit of being a bad team which means get some blue chip talent opportunities

A "Real Fan" of a team, hopes they win every week, and would never hope their team loses for any reason. Besides, the position in the draft isn't as important as the quality of the draft. Look at the best and most consistent teams in the NFL-Patriots, Steelers, Ravens, Colts, etc. who never draft in the top 20 for the most part much less the first over all pick. Now compare all of their drafts to ours year after year, and one consistent thing is their's are much better drafts every year, regardless of the fact that they pick 15-25 positions after us every year.