Draft Simulation With Carolina Picking 1st

[Astrobot]

I used DraftTek's online simulator to find out where we'd draft a QB/ LT/ LB/ DE, factoring in the DraftTek Carolina Analyst's positional needs. Here is the result:

 

Round Pick Team Selection Psn School CRI Delta ReachValue

1 1 Carolina Stephen Paea DT43 Oregon State P1 -4 Reach

1 2 Buffalo Andrew Luck QB Stanford P1 +0 Value

 

2 33 New England Jonathan Baldwin WRF Pittsburgh P3 +0 Value

2 34 Buffalo Cameron Heyward DE34 Ohio State P2 +2 Value

 

3 65 Carolina Curtis Brown CB Texas P2 -12 Reach

3 66 Buffalo Nate Solder OT Colorado P2 +10 Value

 

4 97 Carolina James Rodgers WRS Oregon State P3O -9 Reach

4 98 Buffalo Sam Acho OLB34 Texas P2 -7 Reach

 

5 129 Carolina Mason Foster ILB Washington P4 +16 Value

5 130 Buffalo Casey Matthews ILB Oregon P3 +6 Value

 

I understand Carolina's need for a defensive tackle (and after yesterday's games, you could see Fairley as the #1 pick even over Paea), so Luck falls to us.

 

If San Francisco picks ahead of us, they take Luck and we take Adrian Clayborn, as nice consolation prize. We take Mallett in RD2. The same holds true if Detroit also picks ahead of us.

 

If Dallas and Denver pick before us, the #6 Bills take Robert Quinn OLB34 and Mallett in RD2.

 

Try it yourself here: http://drafttek.com/new%20simulator/frmLogin.aspx

To move teams around, click the team in the right column, then click the pick you want that team to have. Their name will appear in about 1 second.

[Bob in STL]

I used DraftTek's online simulator to find out where we'd draft a QB/ LT/ LB/ DE, factoring in the DraftTek Carolina Analyst's positional needs. Here is the result:

 

Round Pick Team Selection Psn School CRI Delta ReachValue

1 1 Carolina Stephen Paea DT43 Oregon State P1 -4 Reach

1 2 Buffalo Andrew Luck QB Stanford P1 +0 Value

 

2 33 New England Jonathan Baldwin WRF Pittsburgh P3 +0 Value

2 34 Buffalo Cameron Heyward DE34 Ohio State P2 +2 Value

 

3 65 Carolina Curtis Brown CB Texas P2 -12 Reach

3 66 Buffalo Nate Solder OT Colorado P2 +10 Value

 

4 97 Carolina James Rodgers WRS Oregon State P3O -9 Reach

4 98 Buffalo Sam Acho OLB34 Texas P2 -7 Reach

 

5 129 Carolina Mason Foster ILB Washington P4 +16 Value

5 130 Buffalo Casey Matthews ILB Oregon P3 +6 Value

 

I understand Carolina's need for a defensive tackle (and after yesterday's games, you could see Fairley as the #1 pick even over Paea), so Luck falls to us.

 

If San Francisco picks ahead of us, they take Luck and we take Adrian Clayborn, as nice consolation prize. We take Mallett in RD2. The same holds true if Detroit also picks ahead of us.

 

If Dallas and Denver pick before us, the #6 Bills take Robert Quinn OLB34 and Mallett in RD2.

 

Try it yourself here: http://drafttek.com/new%20simulator/frmLogin.aspx

To move teams around, click the team in the right column, then click the pick you want that team to have. Their name will appear in about 1 second.

 

 

You always provide cool information. Thank you!

 

PS - There is a chance that Luck stays in school, right?

[BillsPhan]

...5 Buffalo Casey Matthews ILB Oregon P3 +6 Value...

 

Any chance Casey is another son or at least a nephew of Clay Matthews? If he is, I would draft him with my first pick in the second round!

 

And oh by the way, looking at the "learning curve" Clausen is suffering from this season, and the fact that he was not an expensive first round pick, how on earth do you or that draft predictor reason that the Panthers won't take Luck number one?

[tennesseeboy]

terrific post..thanks.

[Astrobot]

Any chance Casey is another son or at least a nephew of Clay Matthews? If he is, I would draft him with my first pick in the second round!

 

And oh by the way, looking at the "learning curve" Clausen is suffering from this season, and the fact that he was not an expensive first round pick, how on earth do you or that draft predictor reason that the Panthers won't take Luck number one?

Casey’s grandfather, uncle, two brothers, and father were or still are football players. His brother, Clay, is this season’s NFL sacks leader.

 

Carolina needs so much--AJ Green, Fairley, Amukamara, Paea, Luck. Carolina's DraftTek Analyst has their greatest need set at DT43, and CB/WR listed as their P2 need.

[JohnC]

I used DraftTek's online simulator to find out where we'd draft a QB/ LT/ LB/ DE, factoring in the DraftTek Carolina Analyst's positional needs. Here is the result:

 

Round Pick Team Selection Psn School CRI Delta ReachValue

1 1 Carolina Stephen Paea DT43 Oregon State P1 -4 Reach

1 2 Buffalo Andrew Luck QB Stanford P1 +0 Value

 

2 33 New England Jonathan Baldwin WRF Pittsburgh P3 +0 Value

2 34 Buffalo Cameron Heyward DE34 Ohio State P2 +2 Value

 

3 65 Carolina Curtis Brown CB Texas P2 -12 Reach

3 66 Buffalo Nate Solder OT Colorado P2 +10 Value

 

4 97 Carolina James Rodgers WRS Oregon State P3O -9 Reach

4 98 Buffalo Sam Acho OLB34 Texas P2 -7 Reach

 

5 129 Carolina Mason Foster ILB Washington P4 +16 Value

5 130 Buffalo Casey Matthews ILB Oregon P3 +6 Value

 

I understand Carolina's need for a defensive tackle (and after yesterday's games, you could see Fairley as the #1 pick even over Paea), so Luck falls to us.

 

If San Francisco picks ahead of us, they take Luck and we take Adrian Clayborn, as nice consolation prize. We take Mallett in RD2. The same holds true if Detroit also picks ahead of us.

 

If Dallas and Denver pick before us, the #6 Bills take Robert Quinn OLB34 and Mallett in RD2.

 

Try it yourself here: http://drafttek.com/new%20simulator/frmLogin.aspx

To move teams around, click the team in the right column, then click the pick you want that team to have. Their name will appear in about 1 second.

 

As you indicated Mallett is not going to be high first round pick as many of his zealous fans on this board think. As the drafting process unfolds he is going to stealily sink him into the lower first round or upper second round.

 

The player who would appeal to me more is Newton, assuming we don't have an opportunity to draft Luck in the first round. CM might not be as much as a finished product at qb than Mallett is right now but in my opinion he has much more of an upside.

 

You always provide cool information. Thank you!

 

PS - There is a chance that Luck stays in school, right?

 

Astrobot and SDS are vying for MVP on this board. One is a draftnik and the other is a technician who keeps the trains moving. Different skills but both essential.

[bkc]

If Luck does not come out or the bills do not get the first overall . I would be inclined to go front 7 d and right tackle through the first 4 rounds

based on the draft tek big board they could end up with something like this

 

 

1 clayborn de

2 carimi r.t

3 upshaw ilb

4 ellis n.t

4b ballard de

5 brown olb

6stanzi qb

7 clay rb

 

that would add some serious beef to the team and I took a couple of shots on offense late

[Astrobot]

If Luck does not come out or the bills do not get the first overall . I would be inclined to go front 7 d and right tackle through the first 4 rounds

based on the draft tek big board they could end up with something like this

 

 

1 clayborn de

2 carimi r.t

3 upshaw ilb

4 ellis n.t

4b ballard de

5 brown olb

6stanzi qb

7 clay rb

 

that would add some serious beef to the team and I took a couple of shots on offense late

Can't complain with that draft IMHO---I like Stanzi at RD6 (though I see him climbing by April). We're very high on Clayborn (your RD1) and we're not as enamoured with Heyward as some sites.

[justnzane]

guys i see outside backer (even if Merriman comes back and puts together solid games, and stays here) along with replacing stroud at DE our two biggest needs. I can take another year of Fitz if he keeps playing like this. Also, Cord Howard has played well enough to warrant fighting for the RT job next year.

 

This is how i see the needs for the Bills

1a. Outside backer with pass rush ability (aka replacing Kelsay)

1b. Getting Stroud off the field

2 front 7 depth (except for NT)

3 QB

4 OL Depth

5 ?

6 Profit

[bkc]

Can't complain with that draft IMHO---I like Stanzi at RD6 (though I see him climbing by April). We're very high on Clayborn (your RD1) and we're not as enamoured with Heyward as some sites.

 

 

I love your site by the way. If luck does come out , i am thinking he goes number one, if a team doesn't want him someone will trade up for him. Do you agree?

[KOKBILLS]

I used DraftTek's online simulator to find out where we'd draft a QB/ LT/ LB/ DE, factoring in the DraftTek Carolina Analyst's positional needs. Here is the result:

 

Round Pick Team Selection Psn School CRI Delta ReachValue

1 1 Carolina Stephen Paea DT43 Oregon State P1 -4 Reach

1 2 Buffalo Andrew Luck QB Stanford P1 +0 Value

 

2 33 New England Jonathan Baldwin WRF Pittsburgh P3 +0 Value

2 34 Buffalo Cameron Heyward DE34 Ohio State P2 +2 Value

 

3 65 Carolina Curtis Brown CB Texas P2 -12 Reach

3 66 Buffalo Nate Solder OT Colorado P2 +10 Value

 

4 97 Carolina James Rodgers WRS Oregon State P3O -9 Reach

4 98 Buffalo Sam Acho OLB34 Texas P2 -7 Reach

 

5 129 Carolina Mason Foster ILB Washington P4 +16 Value

5 130 Buffalo Casey Matthews ILB Oregon P3 +6 Value

 

I understand Carolina's need for a defensive tackle (and after yesterday's games, you could see Fairley as the #1 pick even over Paea), so Luck falls to us.

 

If San Francisco picks ahead of us, they take Luck and we take Adrian Clayborn, as nice consolation prize. We take Mallett in RD2. The same holds true if Detroit also picks ahead of us.

 

If Dallas and Denver pick before us, the #6 Bills take Robert Quinn OLB34 and Mallett in RD2.

 

Try it yourself here: http://drafttek.com/new%20simulator/frmLogin.aspx

To move teams around, click the team in the right column, then click the pick you want that team to have. Their name will appear in about 1 second.

 

OK...Soapbox is firmly in place...Stepping up...Now...

 

Outside of non-football type of influences, ie...positive drug test, etc...There is absolutely, positively no possible way Ryan Mallett will last until Round #2...If he does what he's done so far over the next few weeks he's going to have the 2 year SEC Resume...Then he's going to have Workouts and Interviews...When he throws the Ball in front of Scouts and GM's they are going to collectively drool...His arm has been compared to a Rocket-Launcher...And we all know how NFL Scouts react to arms like that...He's had 2 years under Petrino, so as long as he's polite enough he'll be able to answer football questions at the white-board...Then they are going to ask College Head Coaches about him and guys like Darth Visor and Saban are going to sing his praises...I'm assuming that opposing Coaches are going to sing his praises true enough, but I have little doubt based on the way he played (in general) vs. those Teams...I'm going to go ahead and assume all these things work out satisfactorily for Mallett because until Draft Day he will have a certain amount of control over his destiny...If these factors do work out for him, Mallett does not get out of the Top 10 in any NFL Draft...Ever...WAY too much upside...Granted he may be a boom or bust type in some ways when you're talking about a Top 5 Pick in the Draft...But I think most NFL scouts are going to see Mallett as Joe Flacco with a stronger arm on the Downside and a more accurate, more athletic Drew Bledsoe on the upside...And when you're looking for a Franchise QB that's definitely good enough to use a Top 10 Pick on...

 

Ok...getting down now...

[1B4IDie]

QBs tend to shoot up the rankings as draft time comes near, an injured Sam Bradford shot all the way up to #1, from a mid first to early second ranking in Nov 2009.

Most sites have Mallet as the #12-25 overall ranking right now. Why would he be moved down as draft time approaches?

 

My question for Astrobot is how does Mallet's ranking compare to Stafford and/or Bradford?

 

In my non expert opinion, Mallet looks like a prospect with a higher ceiling than both Stafford and Bradford.

 

I highly doubt that a team like KC would pass on Mallet in the mid to late draft, you have

KC with a need of 3 at QB, Center, and WR. Cassel hasn't been the stud they hoped for and Mallet would be extremely tempting if he were there.

 

There is almost no way a talent like Mallet falls to the second. If there were 2 or 3 Andrew Lucks in the draft, then possibly, but unless he suffers some kind of major injury I would bet any amount of money Mallet is drafted before 25.

 

Also getting Cameron Heyward in the second and Andrew Luck in the first is a Buffalo Bills fan wet dream. Are you kidding me? If that happened I would have major wood!

Edited November 14, 2010 by Levitre + Wang = Wood

[Lucien K]

And whatever we do at the positions of need I hope the front office takes two people at that position. James Hardy didn't pan out, but Stevie Johnson sure did, and has been the brightest aspect of this season to me. John McCargo was a reach for a position of need, but Kyle Williams has done a lot more than work out. This isn't a new idea by any means, but important as the Bills build out from the trenches T, DL, LB.

[Nanker]

What position will we draft if we win three or possibly four games?

I see The Bills winning today against the punchless Lions (albeit they have a very strong front four), against Cinci - who are coming apart at the seams, and against the JESTS - who will be resting their starters and nursing New Year's hangovers that day.

We could be picking behind Carolina, Dallas, Cinci, Denver, SF and maybe even the Browns - if we beat them too (though I'm less optimistic the squad can rise to that challenge).

[1B4IDie]

What position will we draft if we win three or possibly four games?

I see The Bills winning today against the punchless Lions (albeit they have a very strong front four), against Cinci - who are coming apart at the seams, and against the JESTS - who will be resting their starters and nursing New Year's hangovers that day.

We could be picking behind Carolina, Dallas, Cinci, Denver, SF and maybe even the Browns - if we beat them too (though I'm less optimistic the squad can rise to that challenge).

If you go to Astrobot's site, you can play around with draft order.

[Mango]

i dont want mallet or locker. not worth the controverys. neither is an upgrade over what we have. i would take newton in a 3rd or 4th, or if by some chance locker and mallet fall that far. this draft has 1 qb and it is luck. everybody else is a waste for what this franchise needs behind center

[Spiderweb]

Casey's grandfather, uncle, two brothers, and father were or still are football players. His brother, Clay, is this season's NFL sacks leader.

 

Carolina needs so much--AJ Green, Fairley, Amukamara, Paea, Luck. Carolina's DraftTek Analyst has their greatest need set at DT43, and CB/WR listed as their P2 need.

 

The Casey Matthews needs to move up the board fast. Great Bloodlines for this thoroughbred.

[KD in CA]

I still don't understand why everyone thinks Carolina can't possibly win another game yet the Bills are a lock to do so.

[Erik]

I still don't understand why everyone thinks Carolina can't possibly win another game yet the Bills are a lock to do so.

 

Because we play Detroit and they don't? We can still win 1 and get the #1 pick anyway even if Carolina looses out, they play in the tough NFC South...could be a moot point.

[Nanker]

Those that are rooting for THE #1 spot overall are going to be disappointed. That's what I'm thinkin'.