The Senator Posted November 8, 2010 Posted November 8, 2010 How great Clausen is isn't the point. The point is it would make no sense for them to draft a potential franchise QB two straight years. I would be stunned if they go QB with their first pick no matter who comes out of college. You're right - they should wait - they should only draft a 'potential franchise QB' every three years...like the Chargers!
stony Posted November 8, 2010 Posted November 8, 2010 How great Clausen is isn't the point. The point is it would make no sense for them to draft a potential franchise QB two straight years. I would be stunned if they go QB with their first pick no matter who comes out of college. Hypothetically your right. But John Fox is gone after this year and an organizational shake-up might be in order. If so, the incoming regime has no allegiance to Clausen and he might be a goner.
KOKBILLS Posted November 8, 2010 Posted November 8, 2010 Hypothetically your right. But John Fox is gone after this year and an organizational shake-up might be in order. If so, the incoming regime has no allegiance to Clausen and he might be a goner. Well I doubt he would be a goner...But having Clausen certainly won't stop the new regime from Picking a QB high if that's what they want to do...
Orton's Arm Posted November 8, 2010 Posted November 8, 2010 (edited) Boy that Mike Williams sure was a 'difference-maker'. Try telling the professional athletes on the Bills roster and their coaches that they shouldn';t mind losing, but rather should want to lose because they'll get a better draft pick. The draft is what it is - we'll get a good players in every round if our F.O. staff do their jobs well. Only misguided idiots want their team to lose on Sundays. GO BILLSSS!!!! 8 and 8, baby!!!!! Your post makes no serious attempt to address the points I raised. Unless, of course, you were using the Mike Williams example in an attempt to show that a top-5 pick is no more likely to become an elite difference-maker than a top-20 pick. If that's the point you were trying to convey, you are simply and wholly wrong. Let's look at Bill Polian as an example of this. Below are the first round picks for which he was responsible Top-5 picks Bruce Smith, 1st overall, 1985. Result: First ballot Hall of Fame. Kerry Collins, 5th overall, 1995. Result: Decent player. Peyton Manning, 1st overall, 1998. Result: First ballot Hall of Fame. Edgerrin James, 4th overall, 1999. Result: Good player. Picks 6- 10 Shane Conlan, LB, 8th overall, 1987. Result: Pro Bowl player. Timanga Biakabatuka, 8th overall, 1996. Result: near bust. Picks 11 - 20 Derrick Burroughs, DB, 14th overall, 1985. Result: Bust. Ronnie Harmon, RB, 16th overall, 1986. Result: Bust. Will Wolford, LT, 20th overall, 1968. Result: Pro Bowl player. James Williams, 16th overall, DB, 1990. Result: Bust. Dwight Freeny, 11th overall, 2002. Result: Pro Bowl player. Picks 21 - 32 Henry Jones, 26th overall, 1991. Result: a semi-decent player. John Fina, 27th overall, 1992. Result: a semi-decent player. Tyrone Poole, 22nd overall, 1995. Result: a decent player. Rob Morris, LB, 28th overall, 2000. Result: a decent player. Reggie Wayne, 30th overall, 2001. Result: a Pro Bowl player. Dallas Clark, 24th overall, 2003. Result: a very good player. Marlin Jackson, 29th overall, 2004. Result: bust Joseph Addai, 30th overall, 2006. Result: a solid player. Anthony Gonzalez, WR, 32nd overall, 2007. Result: bust Bill Polian has picked in the top-5 on four separate occasions. In two cases (both picking first overall) he came away with some of the best players in NFL history: Bruce Smith and Peyton Manning. His worst top-5 pick was Kerry Collins (5th overall), and even he had a decent career. Conversely, Polian has picked in the 21 - 32 range on nine separate occasions. His two best players from those nine picks were Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. He also acquired players like Joseph Addai, Henry Jones, John Fina, Tyrone Poole, and Rob Morris (in addition to some busts). But I would argue that Polian acquired significantly more value from his top-5 picks (Bruce Smith, Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James, and Kerry Collins) than he did from his picks in the 21 - 32 range. This, despite the fact that he had only four picks in the top-5, but had nine picks from 21 - 32. Contrary to the misinformed opinions of some on these boards, the NFL's draft day value chart exists for a reason. A top-5 pick is more valuable than a pick later on in the first round. A good GM like Polian does not have some magic wand to make that fact go away. If Polian is picking 32nd overall, and if the players he wanted the most were taken before he had a chance to pick, he's going to have to content himself with his second- or third tier of choices. Over the long haul, that's going to hurt him, as the above drafting record clearly indicates. Edited November 8, 2010 by Edwards' Arm
KOKBILLS Posted November 8, 2010 Posted November 8, 2010 Bledsoe 2.0 Great analysis! Bledsoe as a Jr. at Washington St... 241-432 (55.8%), 3246 Yards, 20 TD's, 15 INT's, 127.2 QB Rating... Mallett as a Jr. in the SEC SO FAR... 193-289 (66.8 %), 2752 Yards, 18 TD's, 8 INT's, 162.93 QB Rating... Just because they are both tall and don't run like Mike Vick does not make them the same QB...
mattsox Posted November 8, 2010 Posted November 8, 2010 They're gonna take the Best player available in the draft at any position. This is how the Bills build through the draft. If the QB they like is there, they may break the rule. But they do grades on all the players. Buddy will stick to his board.
1B4IDie Posted November 8, 2010 Posted November 8, 2010 (edited) Great analysis! Bledsoe as a Jr. at Washington St... 241-432 (55.8%), 3246 Yards, 20 TD's, 15 INT's, 127.2 QB Rating... Mallett as a Jr. in the SEC SO FAR... 193-289 (66.8 %), 2752 Yards, 18 TD's, 8 INT's, 162.93 QB Rating... Just because they are both tall and don't run like Mike Vick does not make them the same QB... Right on KOK plus I'd like a link to 1 site that has Mallet as a 3rd round pick? The lowest grade I have ever seen Mallet given is a late first\early second, and even those grades are more outliers than average Mallet going #3 overall is 1000 times more likely than Mallet going in the 3rd round. Its Locker that has the 2nd and 3rd round grades. Check my signature: plus we'd lucky to get Mallet if he were available when we pick, because Luck won't be there until the 2012 draft. Edited November 8, 2010 by Levitre + Wang = Wood
KOKBILLS Posted November 8, 2010 Posted November 8, 2010 Right on KOK plus I'd like a link to 1 site that has Mallet as a 3rd round pick? The lowest grade I have ever seen Mallet given is a late first\early second, and even those grades are more outliers than average Mallet going #3 overall is 1000 times more likely than Mallet going in the 3rd round. Its Locker that has the 2nd and 3rd round grades. Check my signature: plus we'd lucky to get Mallet if he were available when we pick, because Luck won't be there until the 2012 draft. Mallett is going up against one tough SEC Team after another on most Saturdays, and besides a bad 4th Quarter vs. Alabama, he's REALLY come out looking good...There is no way Buddy Nix is going to look past what Mallett has done in the SEC this Year...No way...He was 10-15 for 96 yards and a TD vs. the #1 Team in the Country on the Road before he got knocked out of that Game...Mallett is 3-1 in Road Games at Georgia, Auburn, Texas A&M, and South Carolina this Year...That's not too bad...Bills Fans better pay attention because Ryan Mallett is definitely going to be in the mix for that 1st Pick assuming he keeps doing what he's been doing this year...
The Senator Posted November 8, 2010 Posted November 8, 2010 (edited) Your post makes no serious attempt to address the points I raised. Unless, of course, you were using the Mike Williams example in an attempt to show that a top-5 pick is no more likely to become an elite difference-maker than a top-20 pick. If that's the point you were trying to convey, you are simply and wholly wrong. Let's look at Bill Polian as an example of this. Below are the first round picks for which he was responsible Top-5 picks Bruce Smith, 1st overall, 1985. Result: First ballot Hall of Fame. Kerry Collins, 5th overall, 1995. Result: Decent player. Peyton Manning, 1st overall, 1998. Result: First ballot Hall of Fame. Edgerrin James, 4th overall, 1999. Result: Good player. Picks 6- 10 Shane Conlan, LB, 8th overall, 1987. Result: Pro Bowl player. Timanga Biakabatuka, 8th overall, 1996. Result: near bust. Picks 11 - 20 Derrick Burroughs, DB, 14th overall, 1985. Result: Bust. Ronnie Harmon, RB, 16th overall, 1986. Result: Bust. Will Wolford, LT, 20th overall, 1968. Result: Pro Bowl player. James Williams, 16th overall, DB, 1990. Result: Bust. Dwight Freeny, 11th overall, 2002. Result: Pro Bowl player. Picks 21 - 32 Henry Jones, 26th overall, 1991. Result: a semi-decent player. John Fina, 27th overall, 1992. Result: a semi-decent player. Tyrone Poole, 22nd overall, 1995. Result: a decent player. Rob Morris, LB, 28th overall, 2000. Result: a decent player. Reggie Wayne, 30th overall, 2001. Result: a Pro Bowl player. Dallas Clark, 24th overall, 2003. Result: a very good player. Marlin Jackson, 29th overall, 2004. Result: bust Joseph Addai, 30th overall, 2006. Result: a solid player. Anthony Gonzalez, WR, 32nd overall, 2007. Result: bust Bill Polian has picked in the top-5 on four separate occasions. In two cases (both picking first overall) he came away with some of the best players in NFL history: Bruce Smith and Peyton Manning. His worst top-5 pick was Kerry Collins (5th overall), and even he had a decent career. Conversely, Polian has picked in the 21 - 32 range on nine separate occasions. His two best players from those nine picks were Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. He also acquired players like Joseph Addai, Henry Jones, John Fina, Tyrone Poole, and Rob Morris (in addition to some busts). But I would argue that Polian acquired significantly more value from his top-5 picks (Bruce Smith, Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James, and Kerry Collins) than he did from his picks in the 21 - 32 range. This, despite the fact that he had only four picks in the top-5, but had nine picks from 21 - 32. Contrary to the misinformed opinions of some on these boards, the NFL's draft day value chart exists for a reason. A top-5 pick is more valuable than a pick later on in the first round. A good GM like Polian does not have some magic wand to make that fact go away. If Polian is picking 32nd overall, and if the players he wanted the most were taken before he had a chance to pick, he's going to have to content himself with his second- or third tier of choices. Over the long haul, that's going to hurt him, as the above drafting record clearly indicates. Why do you waste all this time compiling this crap??? 1) No one reads it, and 2) I already have Google. Edited November 8, 2010 by The Senator
Bill from NYC Posted November 8, 2010 Posted November 8, 2010 [*]Edgerrin James, 4th overall, 1999. Result: Good player. James was a VERY good running back. [*]Henry Jones, 26th overall, 1991. Result: a semi-decent player. [*]John Fina, 27th overall, 1992. Result: a semi-decent player. You give Fina and Jones the same rating??? Henry Jones was FAR better than semi-decent. He was a fine safety. If you think that Jones was semi-decent, how do you rate Whitner? Fina was OK for a season or two but was a stumblebum for the bulk of his career. Jmo. Mallett is going up against one tough SEC Team after another on most Saturdays, and besides a bad 4th Quarter vs. Alabama, he's REALLY come out looking good...There is no way Buddy Nix is going to look past what Mallett has done in the SEC this Year...No way...He was 10-15 for 96 yards and a TD vs. the #1 Team in the Country on the Road before he got knocked out of that Game...Mallett is 3-1 in Road Games at Georgia, Auburn, Texas A&M, and South Carolina this Year...That's not too bad...Bills Fans better pay attention because Ryan Mallett is definitely going to be in the mix for that 1st Pick assuming he keeps doing what he's been doing this year...
JohnC Posted November 8, 2010 Posted November 8, 2010 I keep trying - so far to no avail - to tell the Luck-lovers that they've got it skewed - they seem to want the Bills to continue losing every game this season so we can draft Andrew Luck. The problem is, Andy's staying at Stanford next year. Luck-lovers, what the Bills REALLY need to do is not only continue to lose every game this season (just to protect our draft interests on the extreme long shot that Luck comes out this year), but also lose every game next season - when Luck does finally graduate and enter the draft. That way, we'll have the first pick and our choice of Andy Luck OR - even better yet - Darron Thomas, who will make Luck-lovers forget all about Andy and throw him on the giant scrap-pile of TSW QBs-du-jour! I am a strong supporter of Andrew Luck. Is he coming out? I don't know and neither do you. Am I rooting for the Bills to lose? No. I'm very confident that the Bills are capable enough of losing based on their own disabilities. Even if Luck was more inclined to stay in school he would have to seriously consider coming out if he was the #1 ranked player. If his current HC (Harbaugh) leaves for another opportunity such as Michigan or the 49ers then I think Luck will very likely come out. Although you constantly harrangue Bills fans for being disloyal and rooting against them (which for the most part isn't true) you should focus more of your energies on a very inept owner and ramshackle organization. The Bills are far away from being a relevant team not because of its very irritated fanbase but simply because the organization is very mediocre. Even if the Bills get the first pick and are able to acquire the franchise qb they so much covet the Bills are still years away from being a serious team. The present roster will mostly have to be turned over in the next couple of years. It is a long haul and major endeavor to get out of the deep trench of mediocrity that this franchise is currently in.
Ozymandius Posted November 8, 2010 Posted November 8, 2010 How great Clausen is isn't the point. The point is it would make no sense for them to draft a potential franchise QB two straight years. I would be stunned if they go QB with their first pick no matter who comes out of college. Why would Carolina pass on Luck just because they used a second-rounder on a QB the previous season? Do you pass on a Jaguar just because you already own a Civic? It's tough to get too concerned about this right now, though. A few things have to happen for it to even matter, starting with Luck leaving school.
1B4IDie Posted November 8, 2010 Posted November 8, 2010 You're right - they should wait - they should only draft a 'potential franchise QB' every three years...like the Chargers! You know they haven't drafted a QB since 2004 right? And probably won't draft a QB until 2014.
The Senator Posted November 8, 2010 Posted November 8, 2010 You know they haven't drafted a QB since 2004 right? And probably won't draft a QB until 2014. You're right - my bad - I guess, in their case, the third time (Leaf/Brees/Rivers) really was the charm!
1B4IDie Posted November 8, 2010 Posted November 8, 2010 You're right - my bad - I guess, in their case, the third time (Leaf/Brees/Rivers) really was the charm! we really need our second time to be a Charm LOSSman\ Mallet or Luck I don't think this franchise can take another wiff in the first round.
The Senator Posted November 8, 2010 Posted November 8, 2010 we really need our second time to be a Charm LOSSman\ Mallet or Luck I don't think this franchise can take another wiff in the first round. I don't think you need to worry - Nix & Co. will not screw up the draft, but we could still lose the Ryan Mallett prize (Luck's staying in school) to any # of teams - Carolina, SF, Dallas, even NE* (via the Raiders pick)!
Orton's Arm Posted November 8, 2010 Posted November 8, 2010 James was a VERY good running back. [*]Henry Jones, 26th overall, 1991. Result: a semi-decent player. [*]John Fina, 27th overall, 1992. Result: a semi-decent player. You give Fina and Jones the same rating??? Henry Jones was FAR better than semi-decent. He was a fine safety. If you think that Jones was semi-decent, how do you rate Whitner? Fina was OK for a season or two but was a stumblebum for the bulk of his career. You're right: I probably underrated both Edgerrin James and Henry Jones. I agree with you about both Fina and Whitner. I remember a Bills official--I think it was Marv--mentioning that the Bills employed a service which rates the performance of the players on their roster. According to them, Fina was about the 25th best starting LT in the league. (I don't remember the exact rank.) After adjusting the player rankings a bit, the central point of my earlier post remains. Bill Polian achieved more with his very early first round picks (Bruce Smith, Kerry Collins, Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James) than he did with picks later in the first (Henry Jones, John Fina, Tyrone Poole, Rob Morris, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Marlon Jackson, Joseph Addai, Anthony Gonzalez). Bill Polian had more than twice as many picks (nine) in the second category than in the first (four). Over the course of Bill Polian's career, a typical top-5 pick has proved more than twice as valuable as a pick in the lower part of the first round.
drinkTHEkoolaid Posted November 8, 2010 Posted November 8, 2010 there is no guarantee that Luck will even declare
jack_spikes Posted November 8, 2010 Posted November 8, 2010 I keep trying - so far to no avail - to tell the Luck-lovers that they've got it skewed - they seem to want the Bills to continue losing every game this season so we can draft Andrew Luck. The problem is, Andy's staying at Stanford next year. Luck-lovers, what the Bills REALLY need to do is not only continue to lose every game this season (just to protect our draft interests on the extreme long shot that Luck comes out this year), but also lose every game next season - when Luck does finally graduate and enter the draft. That way, we'll have the first pick and our choice of Andy Luck OR - even better yet - Darron Thomas, who will make Luck-lovers forget all about Andy and throw him on the giant scrap-pile of TSW QBs-du-jour! Has Luck actually stated for the record whether or not he'll return to Stanford next year, or is that just your prognostication?
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