Bill Polian's last four drafts

[Coach Tuesday]

BTW, there are other ways of acquiring players besides the draft, through free agency, by signing UDFAs, trades...Polian manages a roster built around a franchise QB who occupies quite a bit of space under the salary cap. He does this very effectively. He had an easy choice between Manning and Leaf, he had a more difficult choice between James and Ricky Williams, and made the right choice in both of those circumstances. He drafted Freeney, another great pick who also happens to tie up a lot of cap space. He still manages to win year after year. Eight straight years of double digit wins. He found his franchise DE, franchise QB, a solid O-Line and rotates players around them (similar to Kelly, Bruce, Kent Hull and co.). Sounds like he has a good formula for winning. Much better than anything that the Bills have had since letting him and Butler go.

 

That is my point. That right there. You need to hit on a few key picks, and acquire quality depth. Donte Whitner is not the problem (among other things).

 

There are a lot of different ways to build a successful team, you are correct. The problem is, we fired our architect who knows how to do it over and over a decade ago, and since then we haven’t done squat. You wanted to dissect him in this thread. So what is dense, this post or the people responding that its only because of Manning, and Polian only has one ring….

 

Your comment “Yet they win. Why? A constant, coherent system, good leadership in the locker room, and an incredible QB” makes no sense. Are you stating that a constant coherent system of good leadership isn’t the result of Polian drafting the right people? I am confused with the point you are trying to make here.

 

I would rather have a chance every year at the playoff’s as opposed to starting to discuss next year’s draft by week 6 and how we are going to F it up by picking a Maybin, or Williams or Whitner…. period, so give me Polian and an undersized, oft-injured defense, a weak offensive line, and a slew of early-round draft misses everyday of the week and twice on Sundays.

 

Yes, you are confused as to my point, so perhaps I still haven't articulated it well although I keep trying. The point is not, as some of you misfits continue to insist, that Polian is a bad GM or that Ralph isn't a total jackass for allowing him to walk. REPEAT: THAT IS NOT MY POINT.

 

My point is that Polian hasn't aced his drafts - far from it. He has built the Colts into a contender through managing the cap well, acquiring the best QB in the game, and fitting role players into his system.

 

There is too much talk around here about the Bills' first round misses. The problem with this organization is its constant changes of direction, its misevaluation of its own roster, and its spendthrift owner's refusal to invest in quality depth, mid-level free agents, and coaching.

[Travis]

For the sake of accuracy the discussion of the draft began after the first week of the season. It was obvious right from the start that most people knew what the outcome was going to be from this misfit organization.

 

I stand corrected, yes this year it began earlier than most years, I was trying to give them props. 2008 it started shortly after the bye week. (week 6).

[JohnC]

Sometimes I think they are running OBD.

 

Isn't it peculiar that a fan of the most futile organization over the past generation be critical of a GM and an organization that has been one of the most successful franchises during the same period of time? Is there a distinction between stupidity and weirdness? I try hard but I can't grasp the rational.

[Coach Tuesday]

Isn't it peculiar that a fan of the most futile organization over the past generation be critical of a GM and an organization that has been one of the most successful franchises during the same period of time? Is there a distinction between stupidity and weirdness? I try hard but I can't grasp the rational.

 

I am not criticizing the Colts or Polian. I don't know how else to say it.

[Travis]

That is my point. That right there. You need to hit on a few key picks, and acquire quality depth. Donte Whitner is not the problem (among other things).

 

 

 

Yes, you are confused as to my point, so perhaps I still haven't articulated it well although I keep trying. The point is not, as some of you misfits continue to insist, that Polian is a bad GM or that Ralph isn't a total jackass for allowing him to walk. REPEAT: THAT IS NOT MY POINT.

 

Should have used a different thread topic then, no need to have a direct correlation to Polian.

 

My point is that Polian hasn't aced his drafts - far from it. He has built the Colts into a contender through managing the cap well, acquiring the best QB in the game, and fitting role players into his system.

 

No one on this thread claimed he aced all his drafts, what were throwing back in your face because of the thread topic is that he clearly does a better job than most of the organizations out there. You should have started a thread that states: Even though Polian doesn't hit a homerun every time up to the plate he still has the guile to recover from early round misses which OBD clearly doesn’t, although that is clear as day and would be an asinine thread topic. Good day sir.

 

 

There is too much talk around here about the Bills' first round misses. The problem with this organization is its constant changes of direction, its misevaluation of its own roster, and its spendthrift owner's refusal to invest in quality depth, mid-level free agents, and coaching.

[Pete]

were you talking about Manning or Kelly?

[Coach Tuesday]

Good day to you, Mr. Thread Topic Police.

 

Let me spell it out again.

 

Here are my premises:

 

1) Lots of folks here focus on first-round misses as the cause of the Bills' problems.

 

2) Lots of folks here also suggest that the Bills' drafting hasn't been the same since Polian left.

 

3) Lots of folks here insist that we're doing things the right way now by "building through the draft."

 

Here are my facts:

 

1) Polian isn't an amazing drafter by any means. He's about average.

 

2) Yet the Colts continue to win.

 

Here are my conclusions:

 

1) The Bills' first-round misses aren't the cause of their current predicament. They compound the problem, but they're not the cause.

 

2) "Building through the draft" isn't the only way to build a contender, and it's no sure thing. In fact, I continue to think that it's a salary cap management strategy, not a football strategy.

 

3) Perhaps the right approach is to (i) find a franchise QB; (ii) hire quality coaches; (iii) be willing to spend to acquire quality depth; and (iv) stop reversing course every three years.

[Webster Guy]

Just focusing on the top of the draft:

 

2007 - Anthony Gonzalez, WR, RD1; Tony Ugoh, OT, RD2

 

2008 - traded away first round pick to 49ers.

 

2009 - Donald Brown, RB, RD1

 

2010 - Jerry Hughes, DE, RD1

 

All of these players are underperformers. Gonzalez is injury-prone and has been passed on the depth chart by Collie and Garcon. Ugho was drafted as the LT of the future and was released this year. Donald Brown was a total waste of a pick and has been supplanted on the depth chart by Mike Hart. Jerry Hughes is having a rookie year much like Maybin's 2009 - he is weak at the POA and cannot get on the field (and when he does, he isn't making a difference).

 

Just saying, with all of the Polian talk around here, it's worth bearing in mind that he has his share of misses. Perhaps having the best QB ever to play the game can make up for lots of bad personnel decisions.

Actually Im one of the Polian supporters because of what he did here, in Carolina, and in Indy, but I will admit this is pretty compelling evidence against me. Gonzales being injury prone is hard to tell in college but this is a good point you make. While Polian has had pretty late first round draft picks because of Indy's success, drafting is truly a gamble. There were lots of other teams that liked the Maybins and the Mike Williams guys too.

 

What burns me is the obvious whiffs like Orakpo, Ngata etc. I just don't see Polian missing on either one of those two probowlers.

Edited November 3, 2010 by Webster Guy

[buffaloaggie]

Good day to you, Mr. Thread Topic Police.

 

Let me spell it out again.

 

Here are my premises:

 

1) Lots of folks here focus on first-round misses as the cause of the Bills' problems.

 

2) Lots of folks here also suggest that the Bills' drafting hasn't been the same since Polian left.

 

3) Lots of folks here insist that we're doing things the right way now by "building through the draft."

 

Here are my facts:

 

1) Polian isn't an amazing drafter by any means. He's about average. (THIS IS AN OPINION, NOT A FACT)

 

2) Yet the Colts continue to win. (FACT)

 

Here are my conclusions:

 

1) The Bills' first-round misses aren't the cause of their current predicament. They compound the problem, but they're not the cause.

 

2) "Building through the draft" isn't the only way to build a contender, and it's no sure thing. In fact, I continue to think that it's a salary cap management strategy, not a football strategy.

 

3) Perhaps the right approach is to (i) find a franchise QB; (ii) hire quality coaches; (iii) be willing to spend to acquire quality depth; and (iv) stop reversing course every three years.

I'd say Polian is much better than average in the draft. Again, when he has a top 10/15 selection, HE DOES NOT MISS (Manning, James, Freeney vs. Williams, Whitner, Maybin). Most of his first round picks have been late in the first round, like it was for the Bills in the 90s. When you have a top 10 pick, you can't reach again and again.

 

Yes, the draft is a way to mange the salary cap. You let overpriced vets with their best years behind them go and replace them with quality draft picks.

 

The continued poor drafts only exacerbate the Bills problems. The problems started when they let go of Marcellus Wiley, then Ted Washington, Pat Williams, Antoine Winfield, Nate Clements and London Fletcher for nothing in return. They have made piss poor free agent moves to try to plug holes in the O-Line. The Bills have let vets go with good years still in front of them, panicked after depleting their roster, then made desparate free agent signings. They have not have demonstrated the ability to recognize a good draft prospect, resulting in whiff after whiff in the draft, all in all, a recipe for a winless team. Add to that, Ralph's unwillingness to invest in a quality coaching staff and front office and you easily can see why the Bills are in the state that they are in.

 

I think we agree on most points, but you are way wrong on Polian and his drafting ability.

[robertpaul49]

I think that the other thing that the Colts have had going for them has been consistency. The Bills have also drafted the same position multiple times, and have had to completely rebuild their rosters because of philosophy chances.

 

I also think that the multi-head GM and Marv Levy experiment were big mistakes. Hopefully, Nix will provide the direction to rebuild this team.

 

Ralph Wilson has been part of the problem, not because he doesn't spend enough money, but because this team has been mis-managed. The biggest mistakes have been the personel decisions much higher in the organization then the first round draft choices. If the organization has the correct General Manager, who can get the correct coach, the individual draft choices and misses will have a far less detrimental affect on the organization as a whole. One can see the same draft misses with the Patriots as well. Also, it wasn't just Polian, but the slide in the organization can be seen at the time that Butler was forced out.

 

The big question is whether Nix is a competent GM. So far, he seems the be doing well; however, it will be this off season when the Bills have to make a series of personel decisions such as defensive coordinator, offensive coordinator, quarterback, offensive line, linebacker.

[Talley56]

This is like saying Peyton Manning threw some bad passes in his last few games. I know you guys really like him and think he's great but remember those few bad passes he threw.

[NaPolian8693]

were you talking about Manning or Kelly?

 

He's obviously talking about Manning.

 

The last few drafts have not been Polian's best. He's been an NFL GM since 1986 and before that won CFL championships with multiple teams.

 

Over the course of the last 30+ years, it's certain he has made some mistakes. No one would argue that - it's impossible to hit on every pick.

 

The bottom line is that he has a proven history of doing a better job of amassing talent on his teams than his competitors.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1998 - - No Pick - - [9] --> RJ trade (fred taylor)

1999 23 Antoine Winfield CB Ohio State --> Probowler

2000 26 Erik Flowers DE Arizona State --> Bust

2001 21 Nate Clements CB Ohio State --> Probowler

2002 4 Mike Williams OT Texas --> Bust

2003 23 Willis McGahee RB U. Miami --> Probowler

2004 13 Lee Evans WR Wisconsin --> Solid Starter

2004 22 JP Losman QB Tulane --> Bust

2005 — — No Pick — — [20]

2006 8 Donte Whitner SS Ohio State --> Average Starter

2006 26 John McCargo DT NC State --> Backup

2007 12 Marshawn Lynch RB California --> Probowler

2008 11 Leodis McKelvin CB Troy --> Average Starter

2009 11 Aaron Maybin DE Penn State --> Could be bust TBD

2009 28 Eric Wood C Louisville --> Starter

2010 9 C. J. Spiller RB Clemson --> TBD

 

I would have to say the Bill Polian seems to be doing just fine comparatively. It is very normal to have a couple of busts or players, but his ten year track record is getting more talent at lower draft positions. Wow, it's been a while since the Bills drafted a pro-bowler in the first round, especially one that doesn't have character issues.

 

 

 

Man Danahoe was feast or famine. It got really bad after he moved on.

[Shoto]

Biggest mistake Ralph ever made was letting Bill Polian walk. The room wasn't big enough for both egos and Ralph took it on chin from the day Polian walked and years after.

[JohnC]

I am not criticizing the Colts or Polian. I don't know how else to say it.

 

I just read your post #61. I very much agree with it. It was well analyzed and stated. As you noted an organization run by competent people usually consistently win. On the other side of the equation an organization led by a very misguided owner who consistently hires incompetents regularly loses.

 

Without even discussing any particular organizational philosophy the hallmark of the Colts franchise is its stability. With the desperate Bills they are constantly in a state of flux trying to address one seasonal crises after another. As you smartly noted the Colts under Polian represent stability. The Bills under Wilson represent chaos.

Edited November 3, 2010 by JohnC

[Gabe Northern]

What a BLEEP you are. I don't like to go out and call people names, but come on man. Really? The guy builds winning teams. Not everyone is gonna be a sure pick. But as others have already posted, look at what he finds in the later rounds. He finds solid players for his team to be competitive. And seriously when was the last time the Colts didn't make it to the playoffs????? I'd take Bill Polian back in a heartbeat.

 

Top of the draft is a coin flip as to whether you'll get a solid player and thereafter the odds fall. If you do better than 1 in 2 contributors in the first two rounds you'll have a lot of success in this league. Do worse and you're Tom Modrak.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

so in 13 years you get 5 very good players with your top pick ?

Manning anyone would have taken given the chance- Clark, Freeney Wayne good picks

James was descent for a #4 overall. The last 7 years however ? A foul ball with Gonzalez they rest a swing and a miss but you can over come that when you have a good football team already. He did this with the Bills as well. Horrible picks early in the draft.

 

Wow.

 

 

Calling the 11th all time rushing leader in NFL history and a sure bet for the HOF “decent for a 4th overall” renders your credibility in assessing football talent at or near 0.

 

Addai is arguably the best RB (most productive, most TD's) from the '06 draft, but a "swing and a miss"?

 

 

[Tcali]

Top of the draft is a coin flip as to whether you'll get a solid player and thereafter the odds fall. If you do better than 1 in 2 contributors in the first two rounds you'll have a lot of success in this league. Do worse and you're Tom Modrak.

to me the most disturbing thing is the kelsay extension.that trumps even our bush league drafting.with a maybin,although a horrific choice,there was at least some unknown as to his ability.

[bills44]

Gonzalez was placed on the IR today.

 

I think he needs a new hyperbaric chamber.

[Billsguy]

Just focusing on the top of the draft:

 

2007 - Anthony Gonzalez, WR, RD1; Tony Ugoh, OT, RD2

 

2008 - traded away first round pick to 49ers.

 

2009 - Donald Brown, RB, RD1

 

2010 - Jerry Hughes, DE, RD1

 

All of these players are underperformers. Gonzalez is injury-prone and has been passed on the depth chart by Collie and Garcon. Ugho was drafted as the LT of the future and was released this year. Donald Brown was a total waste of a pick and has been supplanted on the depth chart by Mike Hart. Jerry Hughes is having a rookie year much like Maybin's 2009 - he is weak at the POA and cannot get on the field (and when he does, he isn't making a difference).

 

Just saying, with all of the Polian talk around here, it's worth bearing in mind that he has his share of misses. Perhaps having the best QB ever to play the game can make up for lots of bad personnel decisions.

 

You might want to mention at what position in the 1st round thee players were taken. I get the impression that where you pick in the first round can make a significant difference.

 

How many were top 12 picks? How many were worse than Maybin? None? None?