Election Weekend

[Peace]

Sestak has a better chance than onorato does.

 

PA has proven notoriously hard to poll in the last decade. I won't be shocked by either race. A Sestak win would upset me.

[Magox]

The big advantage Dems have in PA is that they have a 1.2 Million voter registration advantage. That is huge.

 

However, just in the past few days, 5 new polls show Toomey has an average lead of 5 points with the Morning Call one bouncing back up to 4 points and four out of the five showing Toomey with 50 or above. I believe that may be too much for Sestak to overcome, unless Sestak can get a huge turnout in the Philly area, which is why OBama was campaigning in that district.

 

In regards to Corbett and Onorato, I would be SHOCKED if Onorato won, he has consistently been down 7-10 points over the past week. I don't see that one happening.

 

As you noted Toomey is a social conservative as well, but I don't see that being an issue whatsoever. None of the stuff that Social conservatives value as important to them are issues that will ever advance, plus he hasn't made this race about social issues at all. He is focused on the economy and tax policy and I'd rather have a candidate that is focused on the economy than a candidate that wants to provide government hand me outs and "even the playing field" (code word for social policy).

[Peace]

As you noted Toomey is a social conservative as well, but I don't see that being an issue whatsoever. None of the stuff that Social conservatives value as important to them are issues that will ever advance, plus he hasn't made this race about social issues at all. He is focused on the economy and tax policy and I'd rather have a candidate that is focused on the economy than a candidate that wants to provide government hand me outs and "even the playing field" (code word for social policy).

 

I am still weighing exactly that logic. Every candidate is imperfect. I'm trying to decide if I can swallow casting my vote his way. One of my problems is that incumbents win for a long, long time to come and I'm not sure I can take 3 decades of Toomey.

Edited November 1, 2010 by Peace

[Magox]

I am still weighing exactly that logic. Every candidate is imperfect. I'm trying to decide if I can swallow casting my vote his way. One of my problems is that incumbents win for a long, long time to come and I'm not sure I can take 3 decades of Toomey.

In a state like PA, with a 1.2 million voter registration, I doubt he could survive 3 election cycles much less 5. I would honestly say that Sestak may very well be left of Pelosi.

[/dev/null]

The big advantage Dems have in PA is that they have a 1.2 Million voter registration advantage. That is huge.

 

That's kind of a misleading stat.

 

A good chunk of that 1.2 Million advantage are blue dog type Reagan Democrats around Pittsburgh and Erie who have no real loyalty to either party. The local and county governments are run by what's left of old Democrat party machines so the real elections for local gov't are held in the Democratic primary. PA holds closed primaries, so in order to vote the Democratic Primary one must be a member of the Democratic Party.

Edited November 1, 2010 by /dev/null

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

That's kind of a misleading stat.

 

A good chunk of that 1.2 Million advantage are blue dog type Reagan Democrats around Pittsburgh and Erie who have no real loyalty to either party. The local and county governments are run by what's left of old Democrat party machines so the real elections for local gov't are held in the Democratic primary. PA holds closed primaries, so in order to vote the Democratic Primary one must be a member of the Democratic Party.

 

Not to mention, the Republican Party has strongholds in the belt of cities from Easton through Allentown, down to reading, York and Lancaster.

[ExiledInIllinois]

That's kind of a misleading stat.

 

A good chunk of that 1.2 Million advantage are blue dog type Reagan Democrats around Pittsburgh and Erie who have no real loyalty to either party. The local and county governments are run by what's left of old Democrat party machines so the real elections for local gov't are held in the Democratic primary. PA holds closed primaries, so in order to vote the Democratic Primary one must be a member of the Democratic Party.

 

What you mean is they swing either way the hate goes. Right now the hate vote is in the hands of the Republicans.

 

[Chalkie Gerzowski]

Reid loses in Nevada.

 

[OCinBuffalo]

Short term prediction:

1. House

RCP already has the GOP taking 224 seats, not counting the 44 toss ups. This means that the low-end prediction is +45 seats. The average is 67, and the high end is 89. Just doing average is the second biggest change in history. I believe that it will be more like 75, which would set the record. I am backed up by the 15 point difference in the generic Congressional vote, which is also the highest in history.

 

Oh, and dev/null's Moran candidate will lose, because I said so, and because, he's a Moran. The candidate, not dev/null.

 

2. Senate

Perhaps nobody has considered the worst case scenario? A 50/50 split? Then we have Biden making decisions? Biden? WTF! Unfortunately, that is my prediction. It's the very worst thing that can happen, and this year, given the Sabres and the Bills, why wouldn't this happen as well? If this happens, I want to see a poll of how many people would support Hillary taking over for Biden. My guess is that you would see 60+% in favor.

 

Long term prediction:

Whichever party recognizes that the vast majority of people want:

...freedom, you know, the concept this country was founded on? I had written a bunch of other stuff here, but it all boils down to freedom...and freedom = smaller government that does not try to legislate their subjective "morality"

that will be the party that dominates elections for the next 40 years.

 

The party that supports leaving us the hell alone, in everything, will be dominant. The party that wants to "help" some people at the expense of others, or outlaw things that people are going to do anyway, or push fairy tales based on the wishes of special interests, or refuse to enforce the laws we already have, will be crushed.

[ExiledInIllinois]

The party that supports leaving us the hell alone, in everything, will be dominant. The party that wants to "help" some people at the expense of others, or outlaw things that people are going to do anyway, or push fairy tales based on the wishes of special interests, or refuse to enforce the laws we already have, will be crushed.

 

+1... Nicely said.

 

Why would you expect anything else in 2010 America?

[Clip Smith]

I know of a fair amount of lifetime entrenched Dems that will be voting for a Rep. or a throwaway tomorrow. People that I would never have guessed to do so.

 

Considering Obama jackbolted out of town when he himself has said he loves election night even if he is not involved, they know what is at hand.

 

At this time tomorrow, we could be without Dodd, Reid, Frank, Pelosi as an also-ran, Repubs up 80 house seats and 10 senate seats, and Ron Paul in-line to chair the sub-committe which oversees the Fed on the eve of Trillions more down the drain.

 

Happy Wednesday.

[ExiledInIllinois]

I know of a fair amount of lifetime entrenched Dems that will be voting for a Rep. or a throwaway tomorrow. People that I would never have guessed to do so.

 

Considering Obama jackbolted out of town when he himself has said he loves election night even if he is not involved, they know what is at hand.

 

At this time tomorrow, we could be without Dodd, Reid, Frank, Pelosi as an also-ran, Repubs up 80 house seats and 10 senate seats, and Ron Paul in-line to chair the sub-committe which oversees the Fed on the eve of Trillions more down the drain.

 

Happy Wednesday.

 

Selfishness will rule. Glad my grandfather didn't think that way when he got a bum steer in the 1930's with that "crippled bastard FDR" (his own words)... Yet, he still voted for the country instead of himself. You can let hate out... But not into your heart. When you do, we are all lost.

[Clip Smith]

Selfishness will rule. Glad my grandfather didn't think that way when he got a bum steer in the 1930's with that "crippled bastard FDR" (his own words)... Yet, he still voted for the country instead of himself. You can let hate out... But not into your heart. When you do, we are all lost.

 

[Magox]

Selfishness will rule. Glad my grandfather didn't think that way when he got a bum steer in the 1930's with that "crippled bastard FDR" (his own words)... Yet, he still voted for the country instead of himself. You can let hate out... But not into your heart. When you do, we are all lost.

Ok, you deserve this....

 

 

You're an idiot

[ExiledInIllinois]

Ok, you deserve this....

 

 

You're an idiot

 

I see I won.

 

:thumbsup:

 

youtube.com/watch?v=8BJfMPxQuiU&

 

Sad part is, people DON'T remember... They continue to make the same stupid mistakes. Which party has held the oval office more in the last 30 years... 2/3rds of the time... 20-10... As Magox likes to cry: Idiots!

[/dev/null]

Ron Paul in-line to chair the sub-committe which oversees the Fed

 

 

Okay, as promised closing the thread on election morning. Let's check back tomorrow and see how everyone's picks turn out