CodeMonkey Posted October 29, 2010 Share Posted October 29, 2010 I have liked this site for a few years now. I watch it mostly for hockey but it is fun for football too. According to this site, if the Bills win out at this point, they have a 68.3% chance of making the playoffs. If they win only 9 of their remaining games, this drops to 10.6%. Before all the homers start complaining and talking about this stat or that stat or "buying into the system", this is just for fun. But for hockey at least, it has been pretty accurate the past few years. Bills Playoffs Chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobblehead Posted October 29, 2010 Share Posted October 29, 2010 I have been to this site, too. Interesting. Also interesting is the thought that people spend that much time on this, haha. Still, I have no idea how this pertains to Aaron Maybin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJ (not THAT RJ) Posted October 29, 2010 Share Posted October 29, 2010 I don't understand the slap at the "homers," but thanks for this link. The numbers are all impressive, though I have no idea what they mean... I guess it doesn't matter, since it is all in fun. Interesting that 10 wins is no guarantee for a playoff spot. I guess this has to do with the existing records of other teams. One little quirk made me chuckle, viz.: 8 8 - 2 - 0 .800 0.2 7 - 1 - 2 No 7 .5 7 - 2 - 1 .750 0.1 Apparently, going 7-2-1 gives them a miniscule but better chance at the playoffs than going 7-1-2. Counter-intuitive fun with stats! Go Bills! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvermike Posted October 29, 2010 Share Posted October 29, 2010 I don't understand the slap at the "homers," but thanks for this link. The numbers are all impressive, though I have no idea what they mean... I guess it doesn't matter, since it is all in fun. Interesting that 10 wins is no guarantee for a playoff spot. I guess this has to do with the existing records of other teams. One little quirk made me chuckle, viz.: 8 8 - 2 - 0 .800 0.2 7 - 1 - 2 No 7 .5 7 - 2 - 1 .750 0.1 Apparently, going 7-2-1 gives them a miniscule but better chance at the playoffs than going 7-1-2. Counter-intuitive fun with stats! Go Bills! It looks like that site actually ran ten million simulations, and then just counted up the results. So it's not super accurate at the point where teh Bills earn two ties. It also looks like it gives us about a one-in-a-million chance overall of producing three ties on the balance of the season. Awesome! Ha! The simulator spat out at least one scenario where the Seahawks win the NFC West at 5-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts