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The Draft is a Crapshoot


JPS

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I was looking back to see how other sucky teams from the past built their team up to current respectability and 3 things struck me:

 

1. The draft truly is a crapshoot. Even teams like New England, as a percentage of players selected, miss way more than they hit. Maybe this is why Belichick likes numbers because he's missed an awful lot. You think the Bills have strung together bad drafts? They are not alone. Almost everyone has missed and missed big.

 

2. Obvious to all of us, but the better teams invest in the lines almost every year....bad teams draft guys who line up 20 yards from the ball.

 

3. The most important factor in bringing the dreggs out of dreggsville was the arrival of a QB. Atlanta (Ryan), Houston (Schaub), SD (Rivers), Washington (McNabb), Miami (Chads), St. Louis (Bradford). As much as I have argued with those who say we need a QB even without a good O-line, I apologize. Yeah, it is possible to pull a David Carr or JaMarcus Russell and still be left without a QB. But the Bills have to invest, invest and reinvest until they find their Bradford (draft), Brees (free agent) or Schaub (trade). Now, I am thinking we sign Vick AND draft a QB. Call me a convert.

 

The site I was looking at: http://www.fftoday.com/nfl/drafttracker.php?o=by_team&TeamID=9000

Edited by JPS
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I was looking back to see how other sucky teams from the past built their team up to current respectability and 3 things struck me:

 

1. The draft truly is a crapshoot. Even teams like New England, as a percentage of players selected, miss way more than they hit. Maybe this is why Belichick likes numbers because he's missed an awful lot. You think the Bills have strung together bad drafts? They are not alone. Almost everyone has missed and missed big.

 

2. Obvious to all of us, but the better teams invest in the lines almost every year....bad teams draft guys who line up 20 yards from the ball.

 

3. The most important factor in bringing the dreggs out of dreggsville was the arrival of a QB. Atlanta (Ryan), Houston (Schaub), SD (Rivers), Washington (McNabb), Miami (Chads), St. Louis (Bradford). As much as I have argued with those who say we need a QB even without a good O-line, I apologize. Yeah, it is possible to pull a David Carr or JaMarcus Russell and still be left without a QB. But the Bills have to invest, invest and reinvest until they find their Bradford (draft), Brees (free agent) or Schaub (trade). Now, I am thinking we sign Vick AND draft a QB. Call me a convert.

 

The site I was looking at: http://www.fftoday.com/nfl/drafttracker.php?o=by_team&TeamID=9000

 

Regarding point #3 Have you considered who the teams you mentioned drafted? Maybe it wasn't the QB who led to the turnaround? Look at these 1st round picks:

 

Atlanta Falcons 2008 #21 Sam Baker OT (same yr they drafted Ryan)

 

Houston Texans 2008 #26 Duane Brown OT (yr after they got Schaub)

 

Washington Redskins 2010 #4 Trent Williams OT (same yr they acquired McNabb)

 

Miami Dolphins 2008 #1 Jake Long OT

 

St. Louis 2009 #2 Jason Smith OT , (the yr before getting Bradford) P.S. they also drafted 2005 #19 Alex Barron OT

 

As you can see the teams mentioned all saw the need to use their premium 1st round picks on OT's!

 

Until the Bills see the light and use their top picks on top notch lineman then they will continue to go through QB's like they are toilet paper and the team will continue to be a laughingstock!

 

And still every other post talks about the next QB the Bills should draft! Sheesh!!

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Until the Bills see the light and use their top picks on top notch lineman then they will continue to go through QB's like they are toilet paper and the team will continue to be a laughingstock!

 

And still every other post talks about the next QB the Bills should draft! Sheesh!!

 

So you don't think the QB's that have come through here suck? Which ones were good?

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So you don't think the QB's that have come through here suck? Which ones were good?

 

None of the QB's had a chance behind the horrible offensive line. It wouldn't make much difference. The point is that without an effective OL the QB of your choice is doomed.

 

The OL is like the engine of the offense, the QB is like the steering wheel. Certainly both are important, but a crappy engine makes for a crappy car everytime.

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The biggest myth on TBD is that the draft is a crapshoot. It's an argument made for two reasons:

 

1) Suppress criticism of the team for drafting poorly by highlighting each mistake other teams make. No team, not even Indianapolis, is faultless in the draft. It doesn't make Buffalo better.

2) Because some posters are intellectually lazy and seek to apply a blanket label to a subject with nuances and which is addressed better by some GM's over others.

 

Teams that draft well typically are better. Teams that don't usually dip to far into UFA and used to get into cap trouble. And then there's a team like Buffalo that drafts poorly and signs bad UFA's.

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Regarding point #3 Have you considered who the teams you mentioned drafted? Maybe it wasn't the QB who led to the turnaround? Look at these 1st round picks:

 

Atlanta Falcons 2008 #21 Sam Baker OT (same yr they drafted Ryan)

 

Houston Texans 2008 #26 Duane Brown OT (yr after they got Schaub)

 

Washington Redskins 2010 #4 Trent Williams OT (same yr they acquired McNabb)

 

Miami Dolphins 2008 #1 Jake Long OT

 

St. Louis 2009 #2 Jason Smith OT , (the yr before getting Bradford) P.S. they also drafted 2005 #19 Alex Barron OT

 

As you can see the teams mentioned all saw the need to use their premium 1st round picks on OT's!

 

Until the Bills see the light and use their top picks on top notch lineman then they will continue to go through QB's like they are toilet paper and the team will continue to be a laughingstock!

 

And still every other post talks about the next QB the Bills should draft! Sheesh!!

Solid point. My initial reaction is Jake Long et al are not playmakers. The Qb is the ultimate playmaker. Yes, he can't make those plays on his back, so the line does have to be addressed, but you need more talent at QB. A good QB can make the line look better. I know there's reservations about Vick, but he's the most talented NFL starter available. He's also an expensive shortcut, so chances are the Bills will not pursue.

 

Solid point on the line though.

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The biggest myth on TBD is that the draft is a crapshoot. It's an argument made for two reasons:

 

1) Suppress criticism of the team for drafting poorly by highlighting each mistake other teams make. No team, not even Indianapolis, is faultless in the draft. It doesn't make Buffalo better.

2) Because some posters are intellectually lazy and seek to apply a blanket label to a subject with nuances and which is addressed better by some GM's over others.

 

Teams that draft well typically are better. Teams that don't usually dip to far into UFA and used to get into cap trouble. And then there's a team like Buffalo that drafts poorly and signs bad UFA's.

It's not a myth. It's a fact. Look at how many misses NE had over the last 5. I think the bigger problem with the Bills is the re-drafting of a position after you let a quality player walk. Sign Winfield, Pat Wms and Clements at the right time and you could have used those picks on O-line or QB instead of McCargo, McKelvin and Youboty. It's general team mismanagement.

 

I didn't think looking at the draft history over the last 10 years was being intellectually lazy.

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None of the QB's had a chance behind the horrible offensive line. It wouldn't make much difference. The point is that without an effective OL the QB of your choice is doomed.

 

The OL is like the engine of the offense, the QB is like the steering wheel. Certainly both are important, but a crappy engine makes for a crappy car everytime.

 

Wow, you must've went to the Colin Cowherd school of bad analogies. So I'll ask again: which of the QB's that had no chance here would be good if they had a chance and why have none of them ever done anything elsewhere? And how do Rodgers, Romo, and Big Rape make plays with mediocre at best OL's?

Edited by BuffOrange
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Regarding point #3 Have you considered who the teams you mentioned drafted? Maybe it wasn't the QB who led to the turnaround? Look at these 1st round picks:

 

Atlanta Falcons 2008 #21 Sam Baker OT (same yr they drafted Ryan)

 

Houston Texans 2008 #26 Duane Brown OT (yr after they got Schaub)

 

Washington Redskins 2010 #4 Trent Williams OT (same yr they acquired McNabb)

 

Miami Dolphins 2008 #1 Jake Long OT

 

St. Louis 2009 #2 Jason Smith OT , (the yr before getting Bradford) P.S. they also drafted 2005 #19 Alex Barron OT

 

As you can see the teams mentioned all saw the need to use their premium 1st round picks on OT's!

 

Until the Bills see the light and use their top picks on top notch lineman then they will continue to go through QB's like they are toilet paper and the team will continue to be a laughingstock!

 

And still every other post talks about the next QB the Bills should draft! Sheesh!!

Your heart/lung system delivers vital oxygen to your cells. If your heart fails your blood doesn't move, which means your cells don't get oxygen, which means they die. If your lungs fail your cells won't get oxygen either because it won't be coming into your system. An argument about whether a heart or lungs are more important would be kind of silly, because you really do need to have both!

 

The dichotomy between a quarterback and an offensive line is similar. No quarterback can succeed without at least some pass protection. But if you provide good pass protection to a mediocre quarterback, the potential benefit of that pass protection is largely squandered. Look at the Ravens of the early 2000s. They had Jon Ogden at LT--a guy who played at a Hall of Fame level. But the Ravens didn't have Hall of Fame level offenses--or anything even remotely close--due primarily to the lack of talent at the QB position. Think of how much better those offenses could have been if they'd had Kurt Warner instead of Trent Dilfer or Elvis Grbac!

 

Good pass protection + good QB play + good receiving threats = a good passing game. Of those three elements, the first two are the most essential.

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