John from Riverside Posted October 17, 2010 Posted October 17, 2010 If we do trade out...not only do I think its a good Idea I sincerely hope we do not trade out of the top 3-5. We can still get a QB here without trading out of the blue chip picks....and pick up needed picks later on. The real problem is getting value for the pick...I dont think it has anything to do with paying the money....i think it is about not wanting to pay for top free agents and wanting to biuld through the draft. You need picks to do that.
KOKBILLS Posted October 17, 2010 Posted October 17, 2010 My apologies actually for the lack of punctuation. I usually write as a mechanism for thinking things through and do not edit. I will try to be a bit more disciplined though as thoughtful comments back help me think things through and even change my opinions. My apology also for the Marchibroda firing error. He was not canned buy also pretty clearly did not see eye to eye with Marv. How did Teddy and Marv not see eye to eye? I don't recall that at all? As for the punctuation police around here I would not sweat it much...It's a message board not an English essay test...
8-8 Forever? Posted October 17, 2010 Posted October 17, 2010 Thank you, Nostril-digger-amus. I wish I was as good at absolutely knowing the future as you. Did you get this from tea leaves, tarot cards, the steaming entrails of a fatted calf, a troll handbook, or your crystal ball? I agree. Ralph will not put out $50m guaranteed on some unproven college kid. Not happening. Anyone who thinks it is is dreaming. Bills are screwed because no one will want the pick either. No one trades for the No 1 overall pick anymore. too expensive. poor bills. all dressed up (having the no 1 pick) and no place to go (can't pay for it). Man it sucks to be a Bills fan. Most teams want to trade their first round pick because of the money involved. But remember if a deal gets done between the owners and the players for 2011, there will almost certainly be a rookie wage scale in place. So by next year it may make more sense to use our #1. No rookie cap in 2011 my friend. Of course that's the year Ralph has to pay up for the no 1 pick, after years of franchise mis management. And he won't. This could be the first no 1 pick to go unsigned and back into the draft in 2012. Actually a good strategy for the Bills. refuse to sign the no 1 pick, go 0 - 16 again in 2011 , pick the same guy and pay dramatically less under the rookie cap.. hmm.. interesting strategy... might just work...
Bob in STL Posted October 17, 2010 Posted October 17, 2010 It seems pretty obvious to me that Buffalo will not pay a huge top three salary in excess of $50M. We know a rookie cap will be in place the next year (2012). We know Mr. Wilson is frugal. We know Buddy wants to build through the draft. I would be shocked if we didn't trade what sadly now seems like the inevitable #1 overall pick (I hope I am wrong. I really want us to win some games). We will still be rebuilding in 2012 and will then keep our top 5 pick which should be a quarterback. I know we haven't traded our top pick very often but it seems pretty logical to me knowing this organization that that is the way they should go. We may get a low to mid round first pick and some more really good picks after that. I don't know what a #1 overall pick is worth but it has to be pretty darn good. If our pick next year is outside of the top 5 we may keep it but 1-3 it is as good as SOLD! So ... Trade the # 1 overall in 2011 and get more picks. We have so many needs this is not a bad option. In 2012 they will still be drafting in the top 10, maybe even top 5. Problem is, why would any team want that pick if a rookie pay scale is coming in 2012?
bobobonators Posted October 17, 2010 Posted October 17, 2010 Like others on here, I would probably trade down as well to anywhere between 5-10, which would give us at least an extra 2nd rounder. 1st rd: DL or LB 2nd rd: LB or DL (depending on what we don't take at 1) 2nd rd: OL 3rd rd: LB 4th rd: OL 4th rd: WR 5th rd: LB 6th rd: DL 7th rd: WR
Sisyphean Bills Posted October 17, 2010 Posted October 17, 2010 The saddest part about this thread is the conclusion the Bills will have the first pick.
Buffalo Billy Posted October 18, 2010 Posted October 18, 2010 I love it if we found a trade partner desperate enough to ignore the upcoming rookie pay scale to pay a player to win now. Even trading down to 5th or 6th overall should still get good value. Like others on here, I would probably trade down as well to anywhere between 5-10, which would give us at least an extra 2nd rounder. 1st rd: DL or LB 2nd rd: LB or DL (depending on what we don't take at 1) 2nd rd: OL 3rd rd: LB 4th rd: OL 4th rd: WR 5th rd: LB 6th rd: DL 7th rd: WR You have us taking three linebackers, and two defensive linemen, but not a good QB? Can you imagine the outrage if we passed on starting QBs twice in a row?
Cannon Posted October 18, 2010 Posted October 18, 2010 Every team has there own value chart for what a draft pick trade should be worth. This one here is just a generic sample chart, http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php , but if you take a close look its basically impossible to get your value back if you believe in the value chart system, which I dont! A team would have to give us ALL of there picks in the draft to give us the value we would want. THAT WOULD BE AWESOME but it aint going to happen. We are not trading our pick.
Punch Posted October 18, 2010 Posted October 18, 2010 (edited) Interesting note on the 1st overall pick, from: http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/09000d5d80fa1d95/article/who-wants-the-no-1-pick-in-the-nfl-draft-nobody "Is it possible for the Detroit Lions, or any team with the top overall choice of the NFL draft, to simply pass on making the pick? Yes. The Lions could pass, and the team choosing second -- currently the St. Louis Rams -- would subsequently be on the clock. The Lions then would fall back into the No. 2 spot. As onerous as having the No. 1 choice might be, don't expect the Lions, or any team that has it, to simply refuse to execute it. The NFL would not approve. "There's an unwritten rule discouraging teams from passing (for the sake of avoiding paying exorbitant money to a rookie)," said a general manager, who requested anonymity. "No matter how much you don't want that pick, it just wouldn't be good for the integrity of the draft." -- Vic Carucci" Edited October 18, 2010 by Punch
DanInSouthBuffalo Posted October 18, 2010 Posted October 18, 2010 (edited) Billy Devaney of the Rams said they had considered trading their top pick in the last few years and it is next to impossible. No-one wants to give up a bunch of draft picks for the right to pay $50 million guaranteed to an unproven player. It's almost a curse to keep having a top pick. However, if a rookie cap gets put into place there could be some SERIOUS wheeling and dealing. Edited October 18, 2010 by DanInSouthBuffalo
Chris in Syracuse Posted October 18, 2010 Author Posted October 18, 2010 You've really made a great argument, I now see that it's obvious too. Thank You!
Punch Posted October 18, 2010 Posted October 18, 2010 Thank You! Gosh, and here I thought he was being sarcastic!
Chris in Syracuse Posted October 18, 2010 Author Posted October 18, 2010 Thank you, Nostril-digger-amus. I wish I was as good at absolutely knowing the future as you. Did you get this from tea leaves, tarot cards, the steaming entrails of a fatted calf, a troll handbook, or your crystal ball? If those are my choices I'll go with steaming entrails of fatted calf with a little chianti and some favre beans! I don't really understand your logic. If there's a rookie salary cap in place, which makes it more affordable for the team with the #1 pick, why would the "frugal" Mr. Wilson want to trade out of it? Are you assuming that the cost of the #1 pick will still be too high, even with the rookie cap? In which case, I ask: how do you have any idea what the rookie cap may or may not be structured? Do you work for the NFL or NFLPA? If there is a rookie salary cap in place (and honestly, that's still a big if), then it really wouldn't make much sense to trade out of those top picks if the metric for price and quality of player add up where it makes fiscal and football sense to keep that pick. But if there isn't a rookie salary cap in place, or if it isn't a really affordable one for a team taking the #1 pick overall, I have to ask: who in the hell would want to trade up for that? There's a reason you don't see teams trading out of the top ten picks of the first round; there's just not much of a market among the other teams to get into that position, unless there's a player they desperately want. Usually there's no player that would justify the cost to trade up so high. If we are the #1 pick, that would mean we are so bad that we need a player rated that highly to help the franchise anyways. While it would be nice to trade out of it if that were the case, I doubt that anyone would make the dream scenario offer you're talking about. My logic is: if the rookie cap NOT in place until 2012 (that is what is being speculated) Ralph would not want to pay $50M plus seeing our cash to cap philosophy unless the they truly felt the next Manning/Bruce Smith/Tony Boselli type was available which I do not believe is the case. Therefore why pay $50M in 2011 that we may get for $10M in 2012. This is assuming we are still rebuilding in 2012 and have a top 3 pick. I want us to win the Super Bowl in 2012 but I frankly see us still struggling mightily next year. I don't think trading a top pick is a "dream scenario" . I respectfully disagree.
BuffaloBillsMagic1 Posted October 18, 2010 Posted October 18, 2010 (edited) We will have the first or second pick. We will draft aQB and we will sign him. We will sign him after camp starts but we will sign him. Take that to the bank. Ralph doesn't like to spend a lot of money on black players after Dockery, Peters and Evans took the more and laid down. Only white ones like Poz, Kelsay and Schobel. He will sign a white QB no questions asked. We got rid of Schobel as well and Trentless who I did not know were black and signed Andra Davis and Spiller and Troup and Carrington for tons of money and I thought they were black. Guess I am color blind on this one. Edited October 18, 2010 by BuffaloBillsMagic1
Chris in Syracuse Posted October 18, 2010 Author Posted October 18, 2010 Of course they might trade the pick, but the logic here is flawed, based only on the OP's assumption that "frugal Ralph" does not want to pay the top pick. Yet, outside of Tom Cousineau (more than 30 years ago), there is no historical basis for this position at all. (Before anyone mentions Jim Kelly, please note that in 1983 the Bills were prepared to make him a multimillion dollar deal when he bolted for Houston...) It all comes down to another act of despairing self-abuse by a depressed Bills fan. Seek help, my friends! I am basing this on our cash to cap strategy. Ralph himself has gone on record many times saying we cannot afford what bigger market teams can afford. My idea is he could get a lot more for his money and rebuild the team faster while saving us money. This philosophy also agrees with Nix wanting to build through the draft. I will gladly engage in debate but personally attacks should not be welcomed on this or any board. I don't feel any of us are self abused fans and I take offense to that comment. You should apologize. I think we keep the pick, especially since there will be a rookie wage scale in place when we make the selection. Everyone knows that is part of the next CBA. If Ralph doesn't have to shell out $50 mill gauranteed you think that Nix and company will not select the best player in the draft? I think they stay put. I also don't believe they take a QB who is not "their guy", which was evident from them passing over Clausen in the 2nd Round this past draft. Now if someone comes up with an outrageous trade offer with a couple of 1st Round picks involved and a 2nd coming to us then I believe we will make the trade, but in recent years people giving up that much for an unproven player to move up has been unrealistic. Now with the coming rookie wage scale that may change also, but I also think it changes the mentality of the people who hold the top spot as well not having to shell out the money we saw go to Bradford. If the rookie cap is in place I agree 100%. I just have heard it speculated that the deal will not get done for this years draft. Most teams want to trade their first round pick because of the money involved. But remember if a deal gets done between the owners and the players for 2011, there will almost certainly be a rookie wage scale in place. So by next year it may make more sense to use our #1. If they can get it done by 2011 I totally agree. there's no way the bills will trade the #1 pick away. quit being such retards. That post took a lot of thought, didn't it? Why is this speculation received with something as thoroughly profound as "being such retards"?
polish lover Posted October 18, 2010 Posted October 18, 2010 Sorry, your argument seems logical but it isn't based on fact. Ralph actually has dished out the cash before and there is no way he will trade out of the pick. More likely the team will give a huge salary to the totally wrong player.
BillsFanInNebraska Posted October 18, 2010 Posted October 18, 2010 I just don't see anyone wanting to move up to the #1 pick and have to eat that huge contract. It has not been a big seller the last few years despite talk that it could be traded.
tennesseeboy Posted October 18, 2010 Posted October 18, 2010 I just don't see anyone wanting to move up to the #1 pick and have to eat that huge contract. It has not been a big seller the last few years despite talk that it could be traded. That is a possibility. If there is no Stafford or obvious "better than all the rest" player worthy of the top dollar top pick, I imagine there won't be all that much of a market for the top pick.
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