Bills will TRADE top pick next year

[3rdnlng]

I hop you are right that we trade the #1 if we have it because it is most likely to be a QB (Luck appears to be the leading choice right now but maybe last month's flavor can't miss choice will play himself into being next month's hemline being up or down.

 

As I see it the Bills are almost certainly going to chase after some rookie to be the next Jim Kelly (certainly Mr, Ralph exercising his owner's right to meddle even though he has proven time and again he may be a great concrete pourer or investor but the man does not have a good football brain. He also has repetitively had toxic relationships with the men he hired to run the Bills ship of state (fired Polian who correctly is given lead credit for hiring a bunch of great players, coaches. and scouts who Marv is correctly given credit for managing these dynamic personalities- outside of his non-fatal firing of Marchibroda and silly misadventures in the redzone where he insisted on control and never equalled the great playcalling of Marchibroda in the red zone), Butler who played him to not negotiate a contract during the season and left us high and dry to run to sunny SD, and then had to fire TD when he failed to manage the bad tendencies he developed after getting run out of Pitts by the man he hired.

 

Add to that the toxic relationships he has had with some of his coaches like his foolish attempt to welch on his agreement with Wade-o and being such a bad owner that Mularkey walked away from a huge contract rather than coach for him.

 

IMHO it will be near impossible for a first year QB to lead this team to win an SB as:

 

1. He will need to read NFL Ds will in order to resd the exotic run blizes other teams will employ against a young OL thst simply is going to challenge our O with, If the blocking schemes led by new players not even on the OL this year will need to be acquired and then chemistry built between them means our QB had better be experienced enough to pick up the slack for our OL or he will likely be killed next year.

 

2. He will need to have a quick release as fast as that as a Peyton Manning or he will be hit and hit hard repeatedly. Even P. Manning was not P. Manning yet as a rookie. Some folks for example showed little football sense by advocating hard the Bills take Jim Clausen, I agree he is a gamer and a great guy to root for but his slow release which will improve over time would get him killed with this Bills team and as the current OL play only shows how much we need at least one if not two new OL players who are not Bills yet demonstrates that the next QB will nor only have seen a large number of pro Ds to make up for poor blocking but will need to have a quite windup like a vet.

 

3. He will need to be able to ignore the local media and few loud but local fans who will demand the impossible of any player at QB not to mention a 1st round drafted QB,

 

I simply doubt that the Buffalo media and fan base are mature enough to allow any rookie QB to grow or even survive.

 

We either need to take the next Bruce Smith if offered in this draft or the next Tony Boselli (though even the LT will often be on an island from time to time though the blitz pick-up RB and good reads by a vet QB will help him.

 

However though this a team game the QB does handle the ball on virtually every O snap and it is incredibly doubtful any rookie QB can prosper in his first year or even survive with a learning OL and with this local talk meisters,

 

I hope like heck that unless a player in the trenches merits a low pick that we trade this resource for value.

 

 

That was just painful to read. A little punctuation please.

[jahbonas]

If Buffalo has the first pick, Luck is available, and they trade it then just close up shop and move. The circumstances in 2001 and 2004 were very much different, in that neither #1 guy, Vick nor E. Manning, were who SD wanted. And the guaranteed money back then was a fraction of what it'll be in 2011 without a CBA including a rookie cap.

 

In 01, Vick was not a complete NFL QB. E. Manning and Rivers in 04 were the top 2 QB's in a deep class. It doesn't look at this point like there's much guaranteed behind Luck if he comes out. Mallett has footwork and touch issues while Locker is more athlete than QB right now. That's not to say they can't be good, but you don't pass up a turn to take a NFL ready QB with huge potential.

 

Bill Polian could have traded down in 98 and let someone else take P. Manning. But he didn't and that guy became the cornerstone of the franchise.

 

How do you say this without even accounting for what might be offered??? In 1998 is ONE example where the top QB did indeed become great and the other viable trade down QB's were not serviceable.

John Elway in 1983 was more rated than Andrew Luck and Elway did become great - but I'd have traded Elways for Jim kelly + #3 + a #1 any day of the week - these are the opportunities where you can build a team quickly.Especially this upcoming draft that seems to have multiple quality QB's

[cåblelady]

Bill, I agree with both you and R² - we should draft Ryan Mallett, then package our very high round-2 pick with a 5th - or 6th & 7th - to trade back into round one and grab Gabe Carimi (I'm willing to eschew another Danny Batten or Kyle Calloway in this year's draft, if it gets us Gabe).

 

The key is how far Greg Romeus (DE, Pitt) drops because of his back injury, and can we get him in the 3rd or 4th - or Dontay Moch in the 3rd & Romeus AND Owen Marecic with our two 4th-round picks? That would be enough for me on draft day - Mallett, Carimi, Moch, Romeus, and Marecic - I wouldn't even care about anything after that.

 

We'll have a nice chance to watch Mallett on CBS this afternoon against Auburn, and Carimi against the Buckeyes (& Cameron Heyward) tonite. Until then, enjoy some 'sweet dreams' of this QB in a Bills uniform...

 

 

youtube.com/watch?v=OurYaWeYlQw

Wow! That video was sweet. Thanx! Sen.

[DanInUticaTampa]

I don't really understand your logic.

 

If there's a rookie salary cap in place, which makes it more affordable for the team with the #1 pick, why would the "frugal" Mr. Wilson want to trade out of it? Are you assuming that the cost of the #1 pick will still be too high, even with the rookie cap? In which case, I ask: how do you have any idea what the rookie cap may or may not be structured? Do you work for the NFL or NFLPA?

 

I doubt there will be a rookie salary cap this next draft. Probably the 2012 one will have it. The OP even stated that wilson wouldn't pay a 50 million+ contract.... that is what the top pick gets without the rookie cap... so it is obvious what the OP means.

[BillsVet]

How do you say this without even accounting for what might be offered??? In 1998 is ONE example where the top QB did indeed become great and the other viable trade down QB's were not serviceable.

John Elway in 1983 was more rated than Andrew Luck and Elway did become great - but I'd have traded Elways for Jim kelly + #3 + a #1 any day of the week - these are the opportunities where you can build a team quickly.Especially this upcoming draft that seems to have multiple quality QB's

 

There are too many ifs yet to be determined, but Luck is the clear-cut top QB at this point. As with most topics in the NFL, nothing is black and white. But here, if you've got the #1 pick, you take the best QB if there's a need and move forward. There are exceptions, but barring a Ricky Williams type offer, teams get the best QB with the top pick.

 

Your Elway comparison is made with the benefit of hindsight. That deal would have gone over like a lead weight when Kelly didn't sign and considering the Bills had just jettisoned Chuck Knox so they could get Kay Stephenson.

 

For argument's sake, let's assume there's a rookie cap in 2011 and Luck comes out. Buffalo deals the top pick for a package of picks. At that point, there'd be a revolt when Luck lands elsewhere and the Bills take a lesser prospect in order to built the other areas of the team.

Edited October 16, 2010 by BillsVet

[NewHampshireBillsFan]

I hop you are right that we trade the #1 if we have it because it is most likely to be a QB (Luck appears to be the leading choice right now but maybe last month's flavor can't miss choice will play himself into being next month's hemline being up or down.

 

As I see it the Bills are almost certainly going to chase after some rookie to be the next Jim Kelly (certainly Mr, Ralph exercising his owner's right to meddle even though he has proven time and again he may be a great concrete pourer or investor but the man does not have a good football brain. He also has repetitively had toxic relationships with the men he hired to run the Bills ship of state (fired Polian who correctly is given lead credit for hiring a bunch of great players, coaches. and scouts who Marv is correctly given credit for managing these dynamic personalities- outside of his non-fatal firing of Marchibroda and silly misadventures in the redzone where he insisted on control and never equalled the great playcalling of Marchibroda in the red zone), Butler who played him to not negotiate a contract during the season and left us high and dry to run to sunny SD, and then had to fire TD when he failed to manage the bad tendencies he developed after getting run out of Pitts by the man he hired.

 

Add to that the toxic relationships he has had with some of his coaches like his foolish attempt to welch on his agreement with Wade-o and being such a bad owner that Mularkey walked away from a huge contract rather than coach for him.

 

IMHO it will be near impossible for a first year QB to lead this team to win an SB as:

 

1. He will need to read NFL Ds will in order to resd the exotic run blizes other teams will employ against a young OL thst simply is going to challenge our O with, If the blocking schemes led by new players not even on the OL this year will need to be acquired and then chemistry built between them means our QB had better be experienced enough to pick up the slack for our OL or he will likely be killed next year.

 

2. He will need to have a quick release as fast as that as a Peyton Manning or he will be hit and hit hard repeatedly. Even P. Manning was not P. Manning yet as a rookie. Some folks for example showed little football sense by advocating hard the Bills take Jim Clausen, I agree he is a gamer and a great guy to root for but his slow release which will improve over time would get him killed with this Bills team and as the current OL play only shows how much we need at least one if not two new OL players who are not Bills yet demonstrates that the next QB will nor only have seen a large number of pro Ds to make up for poor blocking but will need to have a quite windup like a vet.

 

3. He will need to be able to ignore the local media and few loud but local fans who will demand the impossible of any player at QB not to mention a 1st round drafted QB,

 

I simply doubt that the Buffalo media and fan base are mature enough to allow any rookie QB to grow or even survive.

 

We either need to take the next Bruce Smith if offered in this draft or the next Tony Boselli (though even the LT will often be on an island from time to time though the blitz pick-up RB and good reads by a vet QB will help him.

 

However though this a team game the QB does handle the ball on virtually every O snap and it is incredibly doubtful any rookie QB can prosper in his first year or even survive with a learning OL and with this local talk meisters,

 

I hope like heck that unless a player in the trenches merits a low pick that we trade this resource for value.

 

Marchibroda firing? I thought Marchibroda left because after his fame grew with the Bills offense, the Colts wanted him back as HC and hired him as HC. I always thought he left because he got a promotion to HC.

[todd]

Exactly. We either need a tackle or a defensive player who offenses need to gameplan around on every play.

 

Given the choice, I'd hope it would be an OT. I know Bruuuuce was a standout, but the truth is that he was the exception as a pass rushing DE in a 3-4, NOT the rule. The rush should come from the OLBs, so if they intend on upgrading the pass rush, I'd hope the Bills would look to grab a good edge rusher maybe in the 2nd round, kinda like what Pittsburgh did in taking LaMarr Woodley.

[jahbonas]

Marchibroda firing? I thought Marchibroda left because after his fame grew with the Bills offense, the Colts wanted him back as HC and hired him as HC. I always thought he left because he got a promotion to HC.

Ted Marchibroda was never fired - he was the only quality coach Levy had and the only coach in 4 superbowl trips to be extended an offer to be head coach by another team (rest of the league knew Buffalo had the horses provided by Polian and the coaching sucked

[DanInUticaTampa]

Exactly. We either need a tackle or a defensive player who offenses need to gameplan around on every play.

 

Well, we need both of those, and then some.

[jahbonas]

There are too many ifs yet to be determined, but Luck is the clear-cut top QB at this point. As with most topics in the NFL, nothing is black and white. But here, if you've got the #1 pick, you take the best QB if there's a need and move forward. There are exceptions, but barring a Ricky Williams type offer, teams get the best QB with the top pick.

 

Your Elway comparison is made with the benefit of hindsight. That deal would have gone over like a lead weight when Kelly didn't sign and considering the Bills had just jettisoned Chuck Knox so they could get Kay Stephenson.

 

For argument's sake, let's assume there's a rookie cap in 2011 and Luck comes out. Buffalo deals the top pick for a package of picks. At that point, there'd be a revolt when Luck lands elsewhere and the Bills take a lesser prospect in order to built the other areas of the team.

 

Go thru NFL Draft History since 1980 and you will see its rare (1989 Aikman & 1998 Peyton Manning) when keeping the top QB selection was a better option than a trade down because:

1- sometimes both the top qb and others just below were all flops so scooping up extra picks is good

2- sometimes the 2nd and 3rd QBs were better than the first so scooping up extra picks is good

3- sometimes the 2nd and 3rd options turned out similar to top option so scooping up extra picks was good

 

Each year the team that used the top pick overall on a QB thought they had a franchise guy

Just too many times where getting the extra picks works out better.....its a good debate because you do get the Peyton manning type situation

 

Recent History

2008 Matt Ryan (3rd overall) but Flacco (18th)

2007 Jamarcus Russel (1st) Brady Quinn 22nd

2005 Alex Smith 1st ...Jason campbell 18th

2004 Eli Manning 1st ...Phil Rivers 4th Big Ben 11th

2003 Carson Palmer 1st...Byron leftwich 7th

2002 Davis Carr 1st ...Joey Harrington 3rd

2001 Mike Vick 1st....drew brees 33rd

1999 Tim Couch 1st...Donovan Mcnabb 2nd...Akili Smith 3rd

1998 Peyton manning 1st...Ryan leaf 2nd

 

Eli Manning - Phillip Rivers & Big Ben

Mike Vick - Drew Brees next Qb at top 2nd rd

[gobillsinytown]

It seems pretty obvious to me that Buffalo will not pay a huge top three salary in excess of $50M. We know a rookie cap will be in place the next year (2012). We know Mr. Wilson is frugal. We know Buddy wants to build through the draft. I would be shocked if we didn't trade what sadly now seems like the inevitable #1 overall pick (I hope I am wrong. I really want us to win some games). We will still be rebuilding in 2012 and will then keep our top 5 pick which should be a quarterback. I know we haven't traded our top pick very often but it seems pretty logical to me knowing this organization that that is the way they should go. We may get a low to mid round first pick and some more really good picks after that. I don't know what a #1 overall pick is worth but it has to be pretty darn good. If our pick next year is outside of the top 5 we may keep it but 1-3 it is as good as SOLD!

 

Most teams want to trade their first round pick because of the money involved. But remember if a deal gets done between the owners and the players for 2011, there will almost certainly be a rookie wage scale in place. So by next year it may make more sense to use our #1.

[Fan in San Diego]

The trade down decision has to be counter balanced with who else has the top ten picks and what players do they want. If we want a QB, what do the other teams want? A top LB, DL , LT available? We might be able to trade down 3 places, get a top QB or LT position and pick up another low 1st or top 2nd pick to get a DL or top LB.

 

It all comes down to how you can maximize the trade, and get multiple top picks of top needs.

[BillsVet]

Go thru NFL Draft History since 1980 and you will see its rare (1989 Aikman & 1998 Peyton Manning) when keeping the top QB selection was a better option than a trade down because:

1- sometimes both the top qb and others just below were all flops so scooping up extra picks is good

2- sometimes the 2nd and 3rd QBs were better than the first so scooping up extra picks is good

3- sometimes the 2nd and 3rd options turned out similar to top option so scooping up extra picks was good

 

Each year the team that used the top pick overall on a QB thought they had a franchise guy

Just too many times where getting the extra picks works out better.....its a good debate because you do get the Peyton manning type situation

 

Recent History

2008 Matt Ryan (3rd overall) but Flacco (18th)

2007 Jamarcus Russel (1st) Brady Quinn 22nd

2005 Alex Smith 1st ...Jason campbell 18th

2004 Eli Manning 1st ...Phil Rivers 4th Big Ben 11th

2003 Carson Palmer 1st...Byron leftwich 7th

2002 Davis Carr 1st ...Joey Harrington 3rd

2001 Mike Vick 1st....drew brees 33rd

1999 Tim Couch 1st...Donovan Mcnabb 2nd...Akili Smith 3rd

1998 Peyton manning 1st...Ryan leaf 2nd

 

Eli Manning - Phillip Rivers & Big Ben

Mike Vick - Drew Brees next Qb at top 2nd rd

 

No one's offering a trade for the #1 pick. It hasn't been done in 7 years come next April and back then the salary impact was much less than it will be barring a new CBA with a rookie cap. If you want to make the point that the first pick isn't always the best, well, that happens almost every year. It's a weak point, especially when bad front offices get the top choice because they remain at the top of the draft year in and year out.

 

The teams that bust on QB's with #1 picks are those who are or were perennially bad: OAK, SF, HOU, ATL, CLE, and SD pre-Butler/Smith. Those teams always draft in the top 10 because their front offices were horrible. By comparison, IND, SD, NYG, NYJ, and ATL won't be returning in the top 3 anytime soon. And Polian and Jimmy Johnson knew what they were doing in 98 and 89 respectively. They never returned to the top 10 of the draft either.

 

It's funny that some fans are so fearful of using that top pick because there's a chance it won't go right. That's a defeatist mentality borne out of this front office's failure to draft well for the better part of a decade. It's why the Bills are where they are.

Edited October 16, 2010 by BillsVet

[ChasBB]

I would welcome a trade-down. It just makes sense. Unless a clone of Jim Kelly is sitting there at #1, then why take the chance? May as well trade down and load up on needed draft picks and beef up the lines. If Buffalo "earns" the #1 draft pick, I hope they DO trade it away. Many will say it is just Ralph being cheap, but if they do this it will also be to the benefit of the rebuilding plan.

[It's in My Blood]

I hop you are right that we trade the #1 if we have it because it is most likely to be a QB (Luck appears to be the leading choice right now but maybe last month's flavor can't miss choice will play himself into being next month's hemline being up or down.

 

As I see it the Bills are almost certainly going to chase after some rookie to be the next Jim Kelly (certainly Mr, Ralph exercising his owner's right to meddle even though he has proven time and again he may be a great concrete pourer or investor but the man does not have a good football brain. He also has repetitively had toxic relationships with the men he hired to run the Bills ship of state (fired Polian who correctly is given lead credit for hiring a bunch of great players, coaches. and scouts who Marv is correctly given credit for managing these dynamic personalities- outside of his non-fatal firing of Marchibroda and silly misadventures in the redzone where he insisted on control and never equalled the great playcalling of Marchibroda in the red zone), Butler who played him to not negotiate a contract during the season and left us high and dry to run to sunny SD, and then had to fire TD when he failed to manage the bad tendencies he developed after getting run out of Pitts by the man he hired.

 

Add to that the toxic relationships he has had with some of his coaches like his foolish attempt to welch on his agreement with Wade-o and being such a bad owner that Mularkey walked away from a huge contract rather than coach for him.

 

IMHO it will be near impossible for a first year QB to lead this team to win an SB as:

 

1. He will need to read NFL Ds will in order to resd the exotic run blizes other teams will employ against a young OL thst simply is going to challenge our O with, If the blocking schemes led by new players not even on the OL this year will need to be acquired and then chemistry built between them means our QB had better be experienced enough to pick up the slack for our OL or he will likely be killed next year.

 

2. He will need to have a quick release as fast as that as a Peyton Manning or he will be hit and hit hard repeatedly. Even P. Manning was not P. Manning yet as a rookie. Some folks for example showed little football sense by advocating hard the Bills take Jim Clausen, I agree he is a gamer and a great guy to root for but his slow release which will improve over time would get him killed with this Bills team and as the current OL play only shows how much we need at least one if not two new OL players who are not Bills yet demonstrates that the next QB will nor only have seen a large number of pro Ds to make up for poor blocking but will need to have a quite windup like a vet.

 

3. He will need to be able to ignore the local media and few loud but local fans who will demand the impossible of any player at QB not to mention a 1st round drafted QB,

 

I simply doubt that the Buffalo media and fan base are mature enough to allow any rookie QB to grow or even survive.

 

We either need to take the next Bruce Smith if offered in this draft or the next Tony Boselli (though even the LT will often be on an island from time to time though the blitz pick-up RB and good reads by a vet QB will help him.

 

However though this a team game the QB does handle the ball on virtually every O snap and it is incredibly doubtful any rookie QB can prosper in his first year or even survive with a learning OL and with this local talk meisters,

 

I hope like heck that unless a player in the trenches merits a low pick that we trade this resource for value.

 

Wow. Where the hell do you get the time?

[Sisyphean Bills]

I would welcome a trade-down. It just makes sense. Unless a clone of Jim Kelly is sitting there at #1, then why take the chance? May as well trade down and load up on needed draft picks and beef up the lines. If Buffalo "earns" the #1 draft pick, I hope they DO trade it away. Many will say it is just Ralph being cheap, but if they do this it will also be to the benefit of the rebuilding plan.

Of course, there is never a guarantee; but, a team must take chances otherwise it will never really get better. (Corollary: a team isn't going to win a Super Bowl with a roster full of Chris Kelsays.) Such is life.

[Captain Hindsight]

We will have the first or second pick. We will draft aQB and we will sign him. We will sign him after camp starts but we will sign him. Take that to the bank. Ralph doesn't like to spend a lot of money on black players after Dockery, Peters and Evans took the more and laid down. Only white ones like Poz, Kelsay and Schobel. He will sign a white QB no questions asked.

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

Wow. Where the hell do you get the time?

 

 

You have no idea how quickly one can write if one does not pause to edit... or to think, for that matter.

[Hplarrm]

You have no idea how quickly one can write if one does not pause to edit... or to think, for that matter.

My apologies actually for the lack of punctuation. I usually write as a mechanism for thinking things through and do not edit. I will try to be a bit more disciplined though as thoughtful comments back help me think things through and even change my opinions. My apology also for the Marchibroda firing error. He was not canned buy also pretty clearly did not see eye to eye with Marv.

 

I think the general fact is still true though that the Bills O suffered in redzone production when Marv insisted on calling these plays after the demise of Ted.

[WildBills]

there's no way the bills will trade the #1 pick away. quit being such retards.