Chris in Syracuse Posted October 16, 2010 Posted October 16, 2010 It seems pretty obvious to me that Buffalo will not pay a huge top three salary in excess of $50M. We know a rookie cap will be in place the next year (2012). We know Mr. Wilson is frugal. We know Buddy wants to build through the draft. I would be shocked if we didn't trade what sadly now seems like the inevitable #1 overall pick (I hope I am wrong. I really want us to win some games). We will still be rebuilding in 2012 and will then keep our top 5 pick which should be a quarterback. I know we haven't traded our top pick very often but it seems pretty logical to me knowing this organization that that is the way they should go. We may get a low to mid round first pick and some more really good picks after that. I don't know what a #1 overall pick is worth but it has to be pretty darn good. If our pick next year is outside of the top 5 we may keep it but 1-3 it is as good as SOLD!
Buffalonian-at-Heart Posted October 16, 2010 Posted October 16, 2010 You've really made a great argument, I now see that it's obvious too.
Hplarrm Posted October 16, 2010 Posted October 16, 2010 I hop you are right that we trade the #1 if we have it because it is most likely to be a QB (Luck appears to be the leading choice right now but maybe last month's flavor can't miss choice will play himself into being next month's hemline being up or down. As I see it the Bills are almost certainly going to chase after some rookie to be the next Jim Kelly (certainly Mr, Ralph exercising his owner's right to meddle even though he has proven time and again he may be a great concrete pourer or investor but the man does not have a good football brain. He also has repetitively had toxic relationships with the men he hired to run the Bills ship of state (fired Polian who correctly is given lead credit for hiring a bunch of great players, coaches. and scouts who Marv is correctly given credit for managing these dynamic personalities- outside of his non-fatal firing of Marchibroda and silly misadventures in the redzone where he insisted on control and never equalled the great playcalling of Marchibroda in the red zone), Butler who played him to not negotiate a contract during the season and left us high and dry to run to sunny SD, and then had to fire TD when he failed to manage the bad tendencies he developed after getting run out of Pitts by the man he hired. Add to that the toxic relationships he has had with some of his coaches like his foolish attempt to welch on his agreement with Wade-o and being such a bad owner that Mularkey walked away from a huge contract rather than coach for him. IMHO it will be near impossible for a first year QB to lead this team to win an SB as: 1. He will need to read NFL Ds will in order to resd the exotic run blizes other teams will employ against a young OL thst simply is going to challenge our O with, If the blocking schemes led by new players not even on the OL this year will need to be acquired and then chemistry built between them means our QB had better be experienced enough to pick up the slack for our OL or he will likely be killed next year. 2. He will need to have a quick release as fast as that as a Peyton Manning or he will be hit and hit hard repeatedly. Even P. Manning was not P. Manning yet as a rookie. Some folks for example showed little football sense by advocating hard the Bills take Jim Clausen, I agree he is a gamer and a great guy to root for but his slow release which will improve over time would get him killed with this Bills team and as the current OL play only shows how much we need at least one if not two new OL players who are not Bills yet demonstrates that the next QB will nor only have seen a large number of pro Ds to make up for poor blocking but will need to have a quite windup like a vet. 3. He will need to be able to ignore the local media and few loud but local fans who will demand the impossible of any player at QB not to mention a 1st round drafted QB, I simply doubt that the Buffalo media and fan base are mature enough to allow any rookie QB to grow or even survive. We either need to take the next Bruce Smith if offered in this draft or the next Tony Boselli (though even the LT will often be on an island from time to time though the blitz pick-up RB and good reads by a vet QB will help him. However though this a team game the QB does handle the ball on virtually every O snap and it is incredibly doubtful any rookie QB can prosper in his first year or even survive with a learning OL and with this local talk meisters, I hope like heck that unless a player in the trenches merits a low pick that we trade this resource for value.
Thurman#1 Posted October 16, 2010 Posted October 16, 2010 (edited) Bills will TRADE top pick next year If our pick next year is outside of the top 5 we may keep it but 1-3 it is as good as SOLD! Thank you, Nostril-digger-amus. I wish I was as good at absolutely knowing the future as you. Did you get this from tea leaves, tarot cards, the steaming entrails of a fatted calf, a troll handbook, or your crystal ball? Edited October 16, 2010 by Thurman#1
R. Rich Posted October 16, 2010 Posted October 16, 2010 We either need to take the next Bruce Smith if offered in this draft or the next Tony Boselli (though even the LT will often be on an island from time to time though the blitz pick-up RB and good reads by a vet QB will help him. Given the choice, I'd hope it would be an OT. I know Bruuuuce was a standout, but the truth is that he was the exception as a pass rushing DE in a 3-4, NOT the rule. The rush should come from the OLBs, so if they intend on upgrading the pass rush, I'd hope the Bills would look to grab a good edge rusher maybe in the 2nd round, kinda like what Pittsburgh did in taking LaMarr Woodley.
BreezeMafia Posted October 16, 2010 Posted October 16, 2010 I really wouldn't have a problem with trading down from the #1 spot to somewhere between 3 - 8 or 3 - 10. I will say it again: first, draft the best D Lineman available, then grab the Franchise QB somewhere later in Round 1 or early Round 2. The Number 1 Pick should equal the trading partners Number 1 in slots 3 - 10 + a 2nd rounder. The mess that the Bills are in is not Buddy Nix's fault. It is the fault of Marv Levy and Ralph Wilson. Outside of Maybin, Buddy Nix has helped with two back to back solid drafts. 2011 will be solid for the Bills as well.
FightinIrishBills Posted October 16, 2010 Posted October 16, 2010 I don't really understand your logic. If there's a rookie salary cap in place, which makes it more affordable for the team with the #1 pick, why would the "frugal" Mr. Wilson want to trade out of it? Are you assuming that the cost of the #1 pick will still be too high, even with the rookie cap? In which case, I ask: how do you have any idea what the rookie cap may or may not be structured? Do you work for the NFL or NFLPA? If there is a rookie salary cap in place (and honestly, that's still a big if), then it really wouldn't make much sense to trade out of those top picks if the metric for price and quality of player add up where it makes fiscal and football sense to keep that pick. But if there isn't a rookie salary cap in place, or if it isn't a really affordable one for a team taking the #1 pick overall, I have to ask: who in the hell would want to trade up for that? There's a reason you don't see teams trading out of the top ten picks of the first round; there's just not much of a market among the other teams to get into that position, unless there's a player they desperately want. Usually there's no player that would justify the cost to trade up so high. If we are the #1 pick, that would mean we are so bad that we need a player rated that highly to help the franchise anyways. While it would be nice to trade out of it if that were the case, I doubt that anyone would make the dream scenario offer you're talking about.
Bill from NYC Posted October 16, 2010 Posted October 16, 2010 Given the choice, I'd hope it would be an OT. I know Bruuuuce was a standout, but the truth is that he was the exception as a pass rushing DE in a 3-4, NOT the rule. The rush should come from the OLBs, so if they intend on upgrading the pass rush, I'd hope the Bills would look to grab a good edge rusher maybe in the 2nd round, kinda like what Pittsburgh did in taking LaMarr Woodley. Normally I would find myself in agreement with the OP, but not this time. Apparently, Ralph sent Buddy to scout QBs and this is quite telling imo. Fitz is not as bad as our OL and LBs, right? We all know how bad the team is, but Spiller failed to put "fannies in the seats" Richie. We were both there on Sunday, and there were lots of empty seats despite perfect WNY weather. Imo, if the Bills draft Mallet, he would be good for 10,000 tickets per game before he takes the field. If he throws a couple of circus type TD passes, the stadium will be full, as will the beer and food concession lines, parking lots, etc. This is not to mention merchandise sales. Ralph spoke out for "excitement," right? Mallett is able to lead Evans or Spiller on 70 yard fly patterns. Methinks he will be the pick. Just my "meaningless opinion" LOL!
bowery4 Posted October 16, 2010 Posted October 16, 2010 I would agree but I just can't. Think about it this way; who were the QBs when this team in the 60s and the 90s? You need a super good QB to play in the playoffs (and I think RW is right 3 years for winning in the POs). There is no waiting until next year for that pick again because we may improve and not be in the position to get that pick again. This appears to be one of the strongest QB classes (so far)in a long time. We have to go for it if the opportunity is there. Then that pick will have to ride the pine and develop behind Fitz or someone we pick up (who is starting quality) if we get really lucky in FA. The line has to improve or we will run the risk of effing up the development, watch what happens with Mc Coy in Cleveland if he is left in there the rest of the year now. Our OT pick can be a #2, sounds like no one is going 1st round (at this point anyway) I want our lbs and TE DL in the next 3 rounds in BPA order and then BPA regardless of position for the last 2. We can fill other holes in FA (esply w/ LBs next years LBs are good) the class is 2x the size of this one and we should have some good chances to sign if we are willing to spend (which we should have some money to do it, more so now than in recent history).
Chalkie Gerzowski Posted October 16, 2010 Posted October 16, 2010 All options should be on the table. Who knows what a team might offer up in draft pick compensation for the 1st overall.
R. Rich Posted October 16, 2010 Posted October 16, 2010 All options should be on the table. Who knows what a team might offer up in draft pick compensation for the 1st overall. Then again, people whine 'bout how the Bills never take what trade offers they do receive (allegedly). Damned if they do, damned if they don't.
evilbuffalobob Posted October 16, 2010 Posted October 16, 2010 So what if you are right... you don't think we'll get more value by trading out? We need a whole new team, not just 1 pick.
RJ (not THAT RJ) Posted October 16, 2010 Posted October 16, 2010 (edited) Of course they might trade the pick, but the logic here is flawed, based only on the OP's assumption that "frugal Ralph" does not want to pay the top pick. Yet, outside of Tom Cousineau (more than 30 years ago), there is no historical basis for this position at all. (Before anyone mentions Jim Kelly, please note that in 1983 the Bills were prepared to make him a multimillion dollar deal when he bolted for Houston...) It all comes down to another act of despairing self-abuse by a depressed Bills fan. Seek help, my friends! Edited October 16, 2010 by RJ (not THAT RJ)
Conch Posted October 16, 2010 Posted October 16, 2010 We will have the first or second pick. We will draft aQB and we will sign him. We will sign him after camp starts but we will sign him. Take that to the bank. Ralph doesn't like to spend a lot of money on black players after Dockery, Peters and Evans took the more and laid down. Only white ones like Poz, Kelsay and Schobel. He will sign a white QB no questions asked.
KOKBILLS Posted October 16, 2010 Posted October 16, 2010 (edited) Normally I would find myself in agreement with the OP, but not this time. Apparently, Ralph sent Buddy to scout QBs and this is quite telling imo. Fitz is not as bad as our OL and LBs, right? We all know how bad the team is, but Spiller failed to put "fannies in the seats" Richie. We were both there on Sunday, and there were lots of empty seats despite perfect WNY weather. Imo, if the Bills draft Mallet, he would be good for 10,000 tickets per game before he takes the field. If he throws a couple of circus type TD passes, the stadium will be full, as will the beer and food concession lines, parking lots, etc. This is not to mention merchandise sales. Ralph spoke out for "excitement," right? Mallett is able to lead Evans or Spiller on 70 yard fly patterns. Methinks he will be the pick. Just my "meaningless opinion" LOL! I know it's a bit early for predictions but...Who cares...The Bills suck and it's something to do... IF Mallett is on the Board when the Bills Picks and IF Luck is A) Already gone or, B) Stays in school as expected...Ryan Mallett will be the next Buffalo Bills QB... There is absolutely no doubt in my mind if that scenario plays out that's what will happen... Edited October 16, 2010 by KOKBILLS
RJ (not THAT RJ) Posted October 16, 2010 Posted October 16, 2010 The Bills had good luck with their last QB from Arkansas. As long as Ryan Mallet does not habitually tug at his chin strap and stalk, head down, to the sidelines, I am all for him.
KOKBILLS Posted October 16, 2010 Posted October 16, 2010 Then again, people whine 'bout how the Bills never take what trade offers they do receive (allegedly). Damned if they do, damned if they don't. True Rich, but I gotta believe in this case IF they are in the Position to take the 1st QB in the Draft the complaints will be FAR less... Not on TSW of coarse...Just in general...
Another Point of View Posted October 16, 2010 Posted October 16, 2010 If the Bills can get Luck the 50 mil is not a problem and Ralph will gladly pay him Sure, we might trade but I doubt it!
Chalkie Gerzowski Posted October 16, 2010 Posted October 16, 2010 Then again, people whine 'bout how the Bills never take what trade offers they do receive (allegedly). Damned if they do, damned if they don't. I'd love to see a bidding war take place for the Bills' pick. This team is so devoid of talent, it needs way more than a QB... needs high picks for at least one if not two drafts or more. New England does it the right way... they keep replenishing their roster year after year. The Patriots end up with multiple picks in the first 3-4 rounds. Don't they have two picks in each of the first four rounds in the 2011 draft? That team is a machine on and off the field.
H2o Posted October 16, 2010 Posted October 16, 2010 I think we keep the pick, especially since there will be a rookie wage scale in place when we make the selection. Everyone knows that is part of the next CBA. If Ralph doesn't have to shell out $50 mill gauranteed you think that Nix and company will not select the best player in the draft? I think they stay put. I also don't believe they take a QB who is not "their guy", which was evident from them passing over Clausen in the 2nd Round this past draft. Now if someone comes up with an outrageous trade offer with a couple of 1st Round picks involved and a 2nd coming to us then I believe we will make the trade, but in recent years people giving up that much for an unproven player to move up has been unrealistic. Now with the coming rookie wage scale that may change also, but I also think it changes the mentality of the people who hold the top spot as well not having to shell out the money we saw go to Bradford.
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