Ever notice how every draft has at least 3-4 "franchise" QBs?

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

I'd put the odds at failure at close to 50%. I've always said I'd be willing to bet that every QB taken in the first two ronds of the draft wil lbe a failure. If I bet every QB would fail, I 'd likely comer out overall ahead on that eal I think.

[Bob in STL]

What if NONE of the 2011 QB prospects carry a franchise grade? I think the marketing folks at OBD will take a QB no matter what and that scares me. What if LT or Derrick Thomas is there? Haloti Ngata? Reggie White?

 

I'll puke (again) if the Bills draft a QB for any other reason than he's the best player in the draft.

 

 

1 - You won't know if an LT or a Reggie White is there for 4-5 years after the draft, maybe more. You are talking Hall of Fame players.

 

2 - Please don't use Ngata in the same example. He has a long way to go to get to the level of Reggie White or LT.

 

3 - Nix has already proved he will not reach for a QB in any round.

[Ramius]

Take a good look at Christian Ponder when you get the chance. He's actually a graduate student, has great legs, good vision and a decent arm. What I like is his leadership and poise under pressure. If he had a defense, he would be playing for a title this year.

 

What the hell games are you watching? Ponder and the defense have FSU at 5-1 currently. FSU's defense was ranked 108th last season, and they are ranked in the 20s. The defense has been excellent this season, save the OU debacle.

[John from Riverside]

Because eventually we will get it right....

 

I dont consider it a reach if we get either Luck or Mallett....both will end up being good QB's....but something to consider...

 

They mature faster if they are put into a position to succeed.....and by that I mean:

 

- Adequate protection....I dont think our OL is as horrible as others....we have our LT....we have guards and centers....we NEED a RT.

- Someone to throw the ball to....get a real friggen TE that someone might be afraid of in here!

- A defense to give them the ball a lot....If Ralph really wants to get better fast....use some dollars on GOOD defensive players on the DL and linebacker positions.

[benderbender]

We've already got Trent Dilfer playing for us. His name is Ryan Fitzpatrick. Or maybe he's Rich Gannon. Or Brad Johnson.

 

You get what I'm saying?

 

Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson played in the super bowl. Invalid comparison.

[Endless Ike]

The only player you mention who was considered a can't miss guy was JaMarcus Russel.

 

Anyone who thought Russell was a can't miss guy was retarded. I've been laughing at the raiders since he was drafted.

[Endless Ike]

Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson played in the super bowl. Invalid comparison.

 

And rich gannon was an MVP...

[Red]

Good point, Promo.

 

Then you find those gems like college backup Tom Brady or 3rd round pick Joe Montana.

 

With following the NFL now for some 20 years, I'm starting to come around and agree with the experts like Bill Polian. He has been interviewed many 'o time and stated that finding a franchise QB is more about luck than anything else.

 

Hmmmm....isn't there a QB out there named Luck.....

[gobillsinytown]

Excellent discussion going on in this thread.

 

As we can see, drafting a QB in the first round has roughly a 50-50 chance of success. However one thing that also has to happen to enhance the chance of success is hitting on the right OL combination as you're bringing in the "franchise". I think at least part of the reason so many first round QB's bust out is because they're put behind O-Lines that can't protect them. Since most of the game at the NFL level is decision making (since everybody is physically good), trying to play behind a bad line can go a long way toward ruining a young QB. No matter how tough a guy is, eventually he's going to be affected if he's getting plastered every time he drops back to pass. IMO that's what ruined any potential JP had, starting in his college days. In college, he played behind an awful line and it was the reason other teams shied away from him. Same for Edwards. I think at least part of Edwards' regression from an initially promising career was playing behind the five turnstiles he had in front of him.

So to turn a first round QB into the "franchise", it takes timing. I think the QB has to be developed as the O-line is being improved.

[C.Biscuit97]

I think alot of people only thought there was only one true franchise QB in this past draft, Bradford, and he even had big injury concerns. Clausen dropped because he doesn't have elite skills. The very fact that Tebow got drafted in 1st round despite learning how to throw again tells you how bad this draft was.

 

But the 2011 draft have guys with "franchise type skills"

 

- Luck looks like one of the most polished QB prospects in a long time

 

- Mallett has amazing size and immediately has one of the strongest arms in the NFL

 

- Locker is the great unknown but has Elway type skills.

 

- Pryor is also a great unknown but has a combination of size and speed that doesn't come along too often.

 

Who knows if this guys will ever become great NFL QBs because there are many factors that goes into becoming a good pro. But I feel million times better finding a franchise guy in this year's class than any class in at least the last 5 years.

 

A lot of turning a franchise around is luck. If the Bills lost a couple more games in 2003, they end up with Big Ben instead of Losman. If they win a tiebreaker with the Panthers in 2002, perhaps the end with Peppers instead of Williams. If the Colts go 1-15 any other year than 1997, they miss out on Manning.

 

Perhaps, this is the year we bottom out and luck into a franchise saving player. We can only hope.

[Cash]

Good point, Promo.

 

Then you find those gems like college backup Tom Brady or 3rd round pick Joe Montana.

 

With following the NFL now for some 20 years, I'm starting to come around and agree with the experts like Bill Polian. He has been interviewed many 'o time and stated that finding a franchise QB is more about luck than anything else.

 

Hmmmm....isn't there a QB out there named Luck.....

 

I hate the "it's all luck" line of reasoning. Yes, luck is certainly a factor, especially from the fan's perspective. Maybe the guy who drafted Tim Couch knows that Couch could've been good, but got screwed up by some specific mistakes his coach made in his first couple years. Or maybe he just thinks he got unlucky. Maybe the Raiders were the only team with a 1st-round grade on JaMarcus Russell, and every other team knew he'd be a bust. We don't have any inside knowledge, so from our perspective, it's just bad luck either way.

 

Anyway, just because luck is a factor, and maybe a pretty big factor, doesn't mean that it's the be-all, end-all. If it was mostly about luck, then you'd see the same success rates for QBs drafted in the first round as guys drafted in the 2nd round, and the same in turn for the 5th round, etc. But that's not the case. First-rounders have the best success rate by a solid margin -- about 2 out of 3 wind up as busts. Then the 2nd round -- about 3 in 4 bust. Then the 3rd round, where about 90% bust, and surprisingly the next best is the 6th round, which has about the same success rate as the 3rd. In all other rounds, plus undrafted free agents, 95% or more are busts.

 

Bottom line, it's like a craps table. The house has the edge on every bet, and every bet comes down to luck, but not every bet is equal. If you play the pass line and back up your bet, that's like drafting a guy in the 1st round, or maybe even in the top half of the first round. You've got about a 50% chance of winning money. If you bet numbers, that's like a 2nd-round pick. Hard ways are like mid-round picks, and those awful single-roll bets (snake eyes, yo, big red, buffalo, any craps, etc.) are like 7th rounders and undrafted free agents. Sure, once in awhile some moron will hit snake eyes at 30-1, let it ride, and hit it again, but usually people just lose every single bet they place.

[John from Riverside]

If we end up with the 1st overall pick in the draft (just a for instance) the only two scenarios I find acceptable at all are

 

- Standing fast and draft Luck (if he comes out) I am not calling him a cant miss prospect....but the fact is he has shown ever skill and intangible i look for in a QB......you cannot go wrong here by doing this. You now have a player to biuld around who COULD be great.

 

- Trading down but not out of the top 5 and hopefully getting Mallett....and getting decent value of picks in the draft once again you get a player to biuld around, but you also get other valuable picks to fill holes....we need a RT, another offensive threat (I would go for a dependable pass catching TE who can block?), and linebackers who can actually cover AND play the run.

 

Both of these are good situations......

[PromoTheRobot]

I know many here love Luck but aren't you concerned drafting someone who hasn't had a full college career as a starter? I would feel better with someone who had at least two solid seasons as starter. I would think after getting burned by a one-season wonder (and non-senior) pick like Aaron Maybin we'd learn our lesson.

 

PTR

[Thurman#1]

Do you recall how the Bills had to draft Matt Leinert? How about Brady Quinn? Alex Smith? JaMarcus Russel?

 

Yes every year there are draftniks who would bet one of their kidneys that <insert QB here> is the next can't-miss franchise QB. At least 2 every year! And yet we know from history that it is a rare year when more than one QB in a draft ever develops into a decent starter.

 

So If the Bills are going to draft #1, prove to me that we won't wind up drafting the next Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer or JP Losman? Which one of you are going guarantee me that Locker, Luck or Mallett will become a hall-of-famer?

 

BTW, I'm not debating that we need a QB. I'm asking which one is guaranteed not to disappoint us.

 

PTR

 

 

 

I'll prove that to you after you prove to me that ANY pick we make at any position in any round in any year is guaranteed to be a franchise player, or that any FA we get is guaranteed to be a franchise player.

 

There are no guarantees. That's a given.

 

So what you do is try your best to give yourself the highest possible odds.

 

I would trade a top 5 pick in a heartbeat. They are unproven talent that want way too much money

 

 

The problem? You then get the chance to draft a guy who has an even lower chance of success.

 

I know many here love Luck but aren't you concerned drafting someone who hasn't had a full college career as a starter? I would feel better with someone who had at least two solid seasons as starter. I would think after getting burned by a one-season wonder (and non-senior) pick like Aaron Maybin we'd learn our lesson.

 

PTR

 

 

 

Assuming Luck finishes out the year, he will indeed have had two full years as starter. His stats for last year:

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/gamelog?playerId=380470&year=2009

 

However, he might well look better with three full years, and he himself knows this and has stated that he wants to graduate, so he's not all that likely to come out this year.

[Arkady Renko]

Last I checked, Fitzpatrick was the 6th ranked passer in the league.

[Another Point of View]

When I SEE Brian Brohm actually play for a few games THEN I will talk Quarterbacks!

 

So far I only Draft Andrew Luck...

Edited October 14, 2010 by Another Point of View

[first_and_ten]

nothing in life is guaranteed. i know you know that. but you still have to go out and take a chance anyways.

 

imo, id personally like to promise you that Mallett is a "cant miss" pick. i could be wrong, but i feel the odds are heavily in my favor with that one.

 

just like you selected a few names from 20+ years of draft history, id say that he has a very good chance to be the next Matt Ryan, Drew Bledsoe, or Philip Rivers. sure, plenty of guys dont live up to the hype, but plenty do as well.

 

as far as your question of "which one is guaranteed to not disappoint us", the answer is an obvious none. even if the QB chosen plays well, people will still be here complaining about him. maybe he threw for 330 yards and 3 TDs today, but that throw on his one INT was unforgivable, etc, etc.

One thing is guaranteed..RW will find a way to screw up the franchise as long as he is alive.

[akm0404]

It is really mind blowing that many Bills fans are so afraid of having a good quarterback. Some would rather play with a backup quarterback than take the chance and have the spotlight shine on Buffalo. Very strange.

 

Yes, it is obvious that drafting a quarterback at the top of Round 1 of the NFL Draft gives you the best chance at landing the type of quarterback that makes your franchise relevant in the NFL for a decade.

 

Yes, some quarterbacks selected highly turn out to bust. Yes, some of them turn into Hall of Famers, same way that some offensive tackles taken at the top of Round 1 bust, and some turn into Hall of Famers.

 

It's funny - last year everyone railed against the Bills selecting a quarterback because they still wanted to hope that Trent Edwards would develop into a franchise quarterback. They argued that there were no prospects worthy of selection (people actually campaigned against trading up for Sam Bradford - not that it would have happened, but it illustrates the sickness). They said 'Wait until next year! There are tons of elite quarterbacks coming!'.

 

But now that the #1 pick in the draft (or certainly a very high pick) is a virtual certainty, and the days of Trent Edwards are mercifully behind us, everyone is getting pee shy about stepping up and doing what is necessary to win.

 

Don't be scared. Take a chance on rebuilding for a championship instead of rebuilding for 7-9.

[1B4IDie]

All we can do is hope the QB we draft turns into the next Peyton Manning.

 

I think Luck is the best of the bunch.

 

Locker is a great athlete but very raw and unpolished as a passer.

 

Mallet has the physical tools but struggles with his footwork, decision making and accuracy.

 

Luck has it all, he's the prototypical pocket passer with all the intangibles.

 

If you think Luck is a polished passer you're doing more reading than watching.

 

The Mallet assessment is from his days at Michigan, thinks change over time.

 

The Locker assessment doesn't seem current as well. Probably from his High School requirement page.

 

Do you recall how the Bills had to draft Matt Leinert? How about Brady Quinn? Alex Smith? JaMarcus Russel?

 

Yes every year there are draftniks who would bet one of their kidneys that <insert QB here> is the next can't-miss franchise QB. At least 2 every year! And yet we know from history that it is a rare year when more than one QB in a draft ever develops into a decent starter.

 

So If the Bills are going to draft #1, prove to me that we won't wind up drafting the next Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer or JP Losman? Which one of you are going guarantee me that Locker, Luck or Mallett will become a hall-of-famer?

 

BTW, I'm not debating that we need a QB. I'm asking which one is guaranteed not to disappoint us.

 

PTR

There are no guarantees in life.

 

But the Bills are guaranteed to suck if they don't take a highly educated, and well thought out chance on a top tier QB prospect.

 

They are all prospects. Some will be good, Some will be bad, Some will be bad early then good later, Some will be good early then bad later, some will be just OK, and some will be terrible.

[larz tex]

Do you recall how the Bills had to draft Matt Leinert? How about Brady Quinn? Alex Smith? JaMarcus Russel?

 

Yes every year there are draftniks who would bet one of their kidneys that <insert QB here> is the next can't-miss franchise QB. At least 2 every year! And yet we know from history that it is a rare year when more than one QB in a draft ever develops into a decent starter.

 

So If the Bills are going to draft #1, prove to me that we won't wind up drafting the next Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer or JP Losman? Which one of you are going guarantee me that Locker, Luck or Mallett will become a hall-of-famer?

 

BTW, I'm not debating that we need a QB. I'm asking which one is guaranteed not to disappoint us.

 

PTR

 

 

Quarterbacks are hard to find. Look at JP and Trent. We know their ability yet they keep getting chances with other teams in the hope a different coach or system will make them serviceable quarterbacks. It is that hard to find a good one, or even a mediocre signal caller.