Dan Gross Posted December 7, 2004 Posted December 7, 2004 11 About 1/3 of NFL teams, spread across 7 divisions, 7 in the AFC, 4 in the NFC. That tends to happen when you have 3 11-1 teams and 4 9-3 teams. For them to get that many wins, lots of other teams have to lose. I thought about it as I was seeing how NE and Buff have done against "winning" teams, and looking up how Philly, Pitt and Indy have done against "winning" teams, and it is actually predictable among the top teams: when two "winning" teams face each other, whoever is at home wins. Then I'm looking at the power rankings, and realize, as the Bills are ranked around 12th, that no one behind them has a higher record.... So chances are you will have 2-4 games (out of 6) against teams in your division with a winning record, 0-2 games (out of 4) in each of your "full AFC and NFC other conference" games, plus 0-2 in the "other division, same seed" category. For the Bills, as the standings are now, it's 4(AFCE)+ 2 (AFCN)+ 0 (NFCW)+ 0 (SEED)=6, for the Pats, they would lose two "winning team" games because they are one of the winning teams, so it's 2(AFCE) + 2 (AFCN) + 0 (NFCW) + 1 (SEED) = 5. I doubt anyone, based on all this, is faced with more than 6 games against winning teams on their schedule, based on the current records.....so every team that's "looking good" is doing so because of a "soft record."
gantrules Posted December 7, 2004 Posted December 7, 2004 Yep. If you win you are good. End of story.
Guest Guest Posted December 7, 2004 Posted December 7, 2004 11 About 1/3 of NFL teams, spread across 7 divisions, 7 in the AFC, 4 in the NFC. That tends to happen when you have 3 11-1 teams and 4 9-3 teams. For them to get that many wins, lots of other teams have to lose. I thought about it as I was seeing how NE and Buff have done against "winning" teams, and looking up how Philly, Pitt and Indy have done against "winning" teams, and it is actually predictable among the top teams: when two "winning" teams face each other, whoever is at home wins. Then I'm looking at the power rankings, and realize, as the Bills are ranked around 12th, that no one behind them has a higher record.... So chances are you will have 2-4 games (out of 6) against teams in your division with a winning record, 0-2 games (out of 4) in each of your "full AFC and NFC other conference" games, plus 0-2 in the "other division, same seed" category. For the Bills, as the standings are now, it's 4(AFCE)+ 2 (AFCN)+ 0 (NFCW)+ 0 (SEED)=6, for the Pats, they would lose two "winning team" games because they are one of the winning teams, so it's 2(AFCE) + 2 (AFCN) + 0 (NFCW) + 1 (SEED) = 5. I doubt anyone, based on all this, is faced with more than 6 games against winning teams on their schedule, based on the current records.....so every team that's "looking good" is doing so because of a "soft record." 151060[/snapback] OK, but then if all you beat is the 4 teams and lose to the 2 teams, well, then what. Duh
KurtGodel77 Posted December 8, 2004 Posted December 8, 2004 11 About 1/3 of NFL teams, spread across 7 divisions, 7 in the AFC, 4 in the NFC. That tends to happen when you have 3 11-1 teams and 4 9-3 teams. For them to get that many wins, lots of other teams have to lose. I thought about it as I was seeing how NE and Buff have done against "winning" teams, and looking up how Philly, Pitt and Indy have done against "winning" teams, and it is actually predictable among the top teams: when two "winning" teams face each other, whoever is at home wins. Then I'm looking at the power rankings, and realize, as the Bills are ranked around 12th, that no one behind them has a higher record.... So chances are you will have 2-4 games (out of 6) against teams in your division with a winning record, 0-2 games (out of 4) in each of your "full AFC and NFC other conference" games, plus 0-2 in the "other division, same seed" category. For the Bills, as the standings are now, it's 4(AFCE)+ 2 (AFCN)+ 0 (NFCW)+ 0 (SEED)=6, for the Pats, they would lose two "winning team" games because they are one of the winning teams, so it's 2(AFCE) + 2 (AFCN) + 0 (NFCW) + 1 (SEED) = 5. I doubt anyone, based on all this, is faced with more than 6 games against winning teams on their schedule, based on the current records.....so every team that's "looking good" is doing so because of a "soft record." 151060[/snapback] Good analysis.
KurtGodel77 Posted December 8, 2004 Posted December 8, 2004 Maybe a better measure of the softness of schedule would be the combined won-lost record of your opponents. That way you get more credit for playing 8-1 NE than 6-5 Seattle.
Nanker Posted December 8, 2004 Posted December 8, 2004 OK, but then if all you beat is the 4 teams and lose to the 2 teams, well, then what. Duh 151080[/snapback] Simple, your record is then 4-2, AND you're guaranteed to be a "good" team for a minimum of two more weeks.
Recommended Posts