The 3 Biggest Mistakes Thus Far in the Buffalo Rebuilding Process

[BADOLBILZ]

[quote name='purple haze' timestamp='1286478635' post='2000522'

3. Spiller was not drafted just for this season. He was drafted for the future.

 

You don't draft RB's for the future. They are the disposable talent of the league.

 

It always looks flashy on draft day and during camp. Then the games happen and you realize that RB's need blocking and even if they play well they are not the difference between winning and losing.

 

 

Said it before, Steven Jackson and Chris Johnson ran for 3500+ yards last year and neither helped their team to the playoffs. Jacksons team ended up drafting #1 overall.

[bobcat]

How long does it take to rebuild?Didnt we go threw with this 10 years ago?Fire Modrak already,Al Davis can draft better.

[thewildrabbit]

1. Upgraded Offensive coaching, downgraded Defensive coaching

We hired a decent head coach. Good offensive mind, and he has a system that he likes to run. BUT... if our head coach is going to run the offense, we better bring in a PROVEN defensive coordinator that has proven success to run the defense. Especially when you're switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4 scheme. But we failed pretty badly here in hiring a guy that was a linebackers coach, and had a bad resume in one season as a DC. Chan needs to focus on rejuvenating this offense, and not helping out his inexperienced defensive coordinator pull the pieces together.

 

2. We didn't remove the former duds from the roster

If you want to start fresh, you can't come into the season with the same personnel as last season. You have to get rid of the guys that remind everyone of the old losing days, and bring in some fresh legs. The guys I'm talking about specifically are:

- Trent Edwards (should have been gone before the season started)

- Chris Kelsay (been around too long, and now he's going to be around even longer )

- Aaron Schobel (Should have traded him before his hold out debacle, especially when switching to a 3-4 defense. Now we get nothing in return for losing a good player)

 

3. Draft strategy this year (specifically round 1)

It's not that Spiller wasn't a good pick, because he's going to be a great player. But this was one of our strongest positions on the team. And unfortunately the front office decided to hold on to Marshawn and Fred all the way into this season, and we now have to wait until the next draft to get players in return for the trade we just finally made. We could have really used a pass rusher or offensive tackle in this draft that we could have developed this season.

 

Here's to things looking up from this point forward

Yea well I'm more concerned about the so called "decent head coach . Good offensive mind" stuff....

Show me in one instance how this head coach is one iota better then Turk Schonert or Alex Van Pelt, the last two Bills offensive coordinators

Chan Gailey inherited the exact same team with the exact same players and didn't resign TO, cut Josh Reed and failed to upgrade the offensive line.

 

He had his chance to upgrade all off season QB- WR- OL and he chose a RB in an already crowded backfield.

 

This current Bills offense is last in the NFL and even a worse team the last years, at least last years team could run the ball to some degree.

 

 

The guy was fired as an offensive coordinator after his team went 2-14, simply because Buddy Nix is a fool doesn't quantify Chan Gailey as a good offensive mind or even a decent head coach... from my view he sucks!

[BuffaloinLA]

1. George Edwards can only work with the talent on hand. The Bills defense was horrible against the run last year too. Everybody was pissed off at Fewell. He's doing well in NYC with some talent. Coaches are needed. PLAYERS are essential. Why do you think another coach can make them stop the run better or make people able to rush the passer who have shown no proclivity for doing it?

 

2. New regime needs to see things for themselves. That's what they do. They didn't want to trade Schobel because he was a player that could have helped them. Schobel didn't really want to play anyway. He was talking retirment. Other teams know that. Nobody was going to trade for a guy who isn't participating because he's considering retiring. Besides that you can't turn over the number of roster spots that the Bills will need to turn over to become a good team in one season. They cut Kelsay and bring in who? They signed Torbor. They signed Ayodele. They are no better than Kelsay. That's what happens when you need to get bargain FA's to fill out a roster. Teams need to scout and draft well in order to build a contending team. See Colts, Steelers, Ravens, Eagles, Packers as examples of this philosophy. Even if they don't make the playoffs a particular season they are in serious contention.

 

3. Spiller was not drafted just for this season. He was drafted for the future. They did need an explosive playmaker on offense. The Bills can use the picks next April for the same purpose. This is not a short fix situation. We have Spiller. Next April they can continue to draft for impact. QB, LB's etc...

 

In response to point 3, it is very easy to get a very good serviceable running back in later rounds or via trade: See Jets, Eagles, Texans (Jets getting Thomas Jones, Seattle giving up a 4th for Marshawn).

 

Also, running backs have short shelf lives (Terrell Davis, Earl Campbell, Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson,...) so not wise to use high draft picks on them.

 

We should have traded down from that pick and drafted 2 OL who combined would probably have cost less than Spiller.

 

Imo Williams is more of a rotational player. He isn't big enough to take a constant pounding, ala Jenkins, Big Ted, Gilbert Brown, etc. He does play hard, but he gets taken out too often on running plays.

 

The LB situation hurts alot too. Not that they would have selected them, but the Bills narrowly missed out on Willis and McClain. Jauron/Levy went after puny little LBs, and the Bills must get stronger up the middle. Kelsay of course in handled by tight ends on the outside.

Despite all this, the defense really could be respectable in a year or so. The offense is a complete shipwreck, and the philosophy must change.

 

We shall see.

According to Marv Levy, the Bills had Poz rated ABOVE Willis! That lack of talent evaluation is the reason for our abysmal drafts.

[DanInSouthBuffalo]

I loved the Spiller pick and was rooting for it to happen....however....one of these days the Bills will have to learn to press the "trade down button" in the draft if they've missed their key needs. The biggest disservice in the last ten years is giving up high picks to MOVE UP in the draft. IMO, trading-up is only for teams with very few needs to fill, or teams that have quite a few draft picks (see New England).

[Red]

Yeah, I don't think that these assessments are valid, either.

 

#1, I trust Nix and Gailey will get it right. The biggest move that drove me nuts was the Kelsay extension. Thankfully, somebody in the media has a pair and asked why he was extended. Listening to Nix, I guess that explains his value. Its NOT from production on the field. That is refreshing. Its because Kelsay exemplifies the traits they want new players to have. I get that. This team is so desperate for leaders, that Chris Kelsay suffices. Fine. It reassures me that his extension is not based on talent or some horribly skewed view of his potential as a player.

 

Our defensive staff is working with what they have. They are switching to a 3-4. Last time I checked, Kansas City was abysmal when they switched last season, too. To the point where they just did not have the personnel to run it. Sound familiar? KC seems to be doing good this year.

 

#2- We need to fire Modrak. As long that boob is running the draft, we can compile the entire NFL's 1st rounders, and he would still make the wrong picks.

 

This is going to be a long, true, rebuild. I was hoping 3 seasons, but now I'm thinking of 5+.

 

Have patience, Daniel-san.

[Orton's Arm]

I do. Thios team is bad because it was built upon runnung backs, defensive backs and/or gadget players. And, we did have "playmakers" in theory, right?

 

Lee Evans can go deep, but nobody can get him the ball. McKelvin makes plays when returning kicks. Parrish can make a play now and then but he, weighing in at approx. 80 pounds, is built more for special teams. We already had small, flashy little players and we were losing. So, to use a #9 on another small little runninh back (or perhaps return specialist; we will see) was more of the same from where I sit.

 

The Bills are so small and weak that they don't even have a home field advantage. Didn't Parrish go running back into his house when he first saw snow? Big, tough players such as Bruce Smith, Ted Washington, Bryce Paup, Jim Kelly, Andre Reed, etc. win games in Buffalo, not fancy little gadget players.

In 2006, the Bills had the chance to use the 8th overall pick on Cutler. Instead they selected Whitner.

 

In 2007, the Bills used the 12th overall pick on Lynch.

 

A few years later, the Broncos traded Cutler away for a couple of first round picks.

 

The Bills traded Lynch away for a 4th rounder and sundry.

 

Both Cutler and Lynch had made the Pro Bowl before being traded. You wouldn't necessarily consider either player to be elite, but both had shown they could play. Lynch had a couple of 1000 yard rushing seasons, and seemed to be doing a solid job in the games in which he was being showcased. You could make the argument that Cutler was better at quarterback than Lynch was at running back. But I don't think that argument fully explains the vast disparity in what each team got for the player it was trading away. The 15th pick of the first round is worth a little more than 1000 points; which means the Broncos got about 2000 points for Cutler. The 15th pick of the 4th round is worth 72 points. Throw in 21 points for that conditional pick (6th round), and Lynch netted the Bills about 100 points--less than 1/20th the value the Broncos got for Cutler.

 

I saw a New York Times article in which a linear regression analysis was done; with the number of wins being the dependent variable, and measurements of pass offense, rushing offense, pass defense, etc. being the independent variables. The model explained about 80% of the total variation in team wins. The model also found that an improvement in passing offense was four times more useful than a statistically equal improvement in rushing offense. The same 4:1 relationship held with respect to pass defense versus rushing defense.

 

The question, "what can you do to improve my passing game or pass defense?" is four times more important than "what can you do to improve my rushing game or rushing defense?". Lynch was pretty good (not great) as a rusher, but only so-so in the passing game. In today's NFL, that just isn't enough to merit very much in a trade.

 

If a player like Spiller is going to justify being picked 9th overall, he's going to have to do more than just improve the Bills' rushing attack. Spiller's contribution as a returner will do little to justify the pick, because as you pointed out the Bills have plenty of good return guys already. If Spiller is going to justify that 9th overall pick, he's going to have to improve the Bills' passing attack. If a RB is asked to stay in and block, it's just as important for him to win his individual battle against some LB or safety as it is for an offensive lineman to win his one-on-one battle. If a RB is asked to be a receiver on a pass play, then his potential contribution is just like that of any other receiver. If he's asked to run a draw play on third and long, in order to punish the defense for over-committing to the pass rush, how well he actually performs on that draw play will determine whether the chains get moved, as well as whether the defense has to hold back a little in future third and long situations.

 

While Thurman Thomas was a better pure runner than Lynch, the real difference between the two becomes even more pronounced when you look at all the other things a running back is supposed to do: pass receiving, blitz pickup, etc. Thurman could pile up all-purpose yards like no one's business, he was very good at blocking blitzers, and was an integral part of the K-gun offense. When John Butler went to San Diego, he used a top 5 pick on LaDanian Tomlinson in hopes of getting the next Thurman Thomas. He ended up getting even more. One can safely assume that LaDanian Tomlinson made an impression on Nix while he was at San Diego; and that Spiller is intended to be our Tomlinson.

 

Obviously, a good passing game requires both a quarterback and an offensive line. The Bills have neither; and did very little to acquire either during this past offseason. If that trend continues, the Bills' rebuilding efforts will fail even if Spiller turns out to be every bit as good as Tomlinson. But if the Bills' problems on the OL and at QB were fixed, having a Thurman-like or Tomlinson-like player in the backfield would be a real help.

 

One's opinion of the Spiller pick depends a lot on one's level of trust in the front office.

 

Do you trust them to acquire the right quarterback and the right offensive linemen? Or do feel those positions will be neglected over the coming years, just as they have been over the last 15 years?

 

Do you think Spiller has the potential to have a Thurman-like career? Or do you see him as just another Antowain Smith/Travis Henry/Willis McGahee/Marshawn Lynch?

 

I have to admit that I'm less optimistic about this front office than I'd been a few months ago. The Cornell Green signing, the Kelsay extension, the Bills' choice of defensive coordinator: these things all reflect badly on the organization and the people running it. I realize no organization is perfect, but it seems like the Bills have made more errors than I would expect at this point from a well-run team.

[CSBill]

In 2006, the Bills had the chance to use the 8th overall pick on Cutler. Instead they selected Whitner.

 

In 2007, the Bills used the 12th overall pick on Lynch.

 

A few years later, the Broncos traded Cutler away for a couple of first round picks.

 

The Bills traded Lynch away for a 4th rounder and sundry.

 

Both Cutler and Lynch had made the Pro Bowl before being traded. You wouldn't necessarily consider either player to be elite, but both had shown they could play. Lynch had a couple of 1000 yard rushing seasons, and seemed to be doing a solid job in the games in which he was being showcased. You could make the argument that Cutler was better at quarterback than Lynch was at running back. But I don't think that argument fully explains the vast disparity in what each team got for the player it was trading away. The 15th pick of the first round is worth a little more than 1000 points; which means the Broncos got about 2000 points for Cutler. The 15th pick of the 4th round is worth 72 points. Throw in 21 points for that conditional pick (6th round), and Lynch netted the Bills about 100 points--less than 1/20th the value the Broncos got for Cutler.

 

I saw a New York Times article in which a linear regression analysis was done; with the number of wins being the dependent variable, and measurements of pass offense, rushing offense, pass defense, etc. being the independent variables. The model explained about 80% of the total variation in team wins. The model also found that an improvement in passing offense was four times more useful than a statistically equal improvement in rushing offense. The same 4:1 relationship held with respect to pass defense versus rushing defense.

 

The question, "what can you do to improve my passing game or pass defense?" is four times more important than "what can you do to improve my rushing game or rushing defense?". Lynch was pretty good (not great) as a rusher, but only so-so in the passing game. In today's NFL, that just isn't enough to merit very much in a trade.

 

If a player like Spiller is going to justify being picked 9th overall, he's going to have to do more than just improve the Bills' rushing attack. Spiller's contribution as a returner will do little to justify the pick, because as you pointed out the Bills have plenty of good return guys already. If Spiller is going to justify that 9th overall pick, he's going to have to improve the Bills' passing attack. If a RB is asked to stay in and block, it's just as important for him to win his individual battle against some LB or safety as it is for an offensive lineman to win his one-on-one battle. If a RB is asked to be a receiver on a pass play, then his potential contribution is just like that of any other receiver. If he's asked to run a draw play on third and long, in order to punish the defense for over-committing to the pass rush, how well he actually performs on that draw play will determine whether the chains get moved, as well as whether the defense has to hold back a little in future third and long situations.

 

While Thurman Thomas was a better pure runner than Lynch, the real difference between the two becomes even more pronounced when you look at all the other things a running back is supposed to do: pass receiving, blitz pickup, etc. Thurman could pile up all-purpose yards like no one's business, he was very good at blocking blitzers, and was an integral part of the K-gun offense. When John Butler went to San Diego, he used a top 5 pick on LaDanian Tomlinson in hopes of getting the next Thurman Thomas. He ended up getting even more. One can safely assume that LaDanian Tomlinson made an impression on Nix while he was at San Diego; and that Spiller is intended to be our Tomlinson.

 

Obviously, a good passing game requires both a quarterback and an offensive line. The Bills have neither; and did very little to acquire either during this past offseason. If that trend continues, the Bills' rebuilding efforts will fail even if Spiller turns out to be every bit as good as Tomlinson. But if the Bills' problems on the OL and at QB were fixed, having a Thurman-like or Tomlinson-like player in the backfield would be a real help.

 

One's opinion of the Spiller pick depends a lot on one's level of trust in the front office.

 

Do you trust them to acquire the right quarterback and the right offensive linemen? Or do feel those positions will be neglected over the coming years, just as they have been over the last 15 years?

 

Do you think Spiller has the potential to have a Thurman-like career? Or do you see him as just another Antowain Smith/Travis Henry/Willis McGahee/Marshawn Lynch?

 

I have to admit that I'm less optimistic about this front office than I'd been a few months ago. The Cornell Green signing, the Kelsay extension, the Bills' choice of defensive coordinator: these things all reflect badly on the organization and the people running it. I realize no organization is perfect, but it seems like the Bills have made more errors than I would expect at this point from a well-run team.

 

Ditto! If a team is bad, and this team is, then your draft picks, especially your high ones, ought to be able to contribute right away. Other than part-time help from Spiller, who else is even seeing the field? That, along with what are some other very strange moves (Edwards, Lynch, etc.) are causing me a lot of doubts -- but I really do hope I'm wrong.

 

Unfortunately, I personally have not seen one major personnel move over the past 10 months that insures confidence that this regime really does have a plan and the savvy to pull it off. I challenge anyone to make the case that they have—is there one positive thing that we can say “yeah, they are on to something here”?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1. George Edwards can only work with the talent on hand. The Bills defense was horrible against the run last year too. Everybody was pissed off at Fewell. He's doing well in NYC with some talent. Coaches are needed. PLAYERS are essential. Why do you think another coach can make them stop the run better or make people able to rush the passer who have shown no proclivity for doing it?

 

They brought in a DE and 3 LB (2 intended to start). Let me count, I'm wearing sandals.... 3+4 = 7. 1+2 = 3.

They brought in Drayton Florence as well, starting at RCB.

 

The current coaches/FO brought in players who comprise almost half of the starting DL

It's much worse, and the secondary is positively windy

 

I "get it" that players are essential; if you're a DC, and half the DL came in on your watch, in theory should you not have players who can do the job?

Presumably you didn't bring them in 'cuz you think they suck and can't play better than the players who were already here?

[akm0404]

When do we get to stop calling Chan Gailey a great offensive mind?

 

Do we have to go an entire season with the literal worst offense in football, or have we seen enough to kind of stop spreading that BS?

 

I mean, so far all he has managed with the same players is to somehow, despite the impossibly long odds, is make the offense worse.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

I want an excuse that works in every situation that can shoot down obvious objections like, "rebuilding!"

 

Wife: Where have you been all night?

 

Husband: Rebuilding!

 

Wife: Why do yo smell like french perfume and have glitter all over your neck?

 

Husband: Rebuilding!

 

I have never heard an excuse that has been executed so perfectly than Buddy's "REBUILDING!"

 

Ever had a job where you were brought into a disaster to fix it?

 

You have to assess the situation, understand the problems, create a plan to fix the issues with immediate containment and long term fixes, then work the plan and measure the results. It is easy to throw stones at guys who don't get immediate results and also 100% naïve as real fixes don't come overnight, period.

Edited October 9, 2010 by over 20 years of fanhood