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Long Term - What IS Best At QB ?

Mark VI

By Mark VI
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pkwwjd RFA

pkwwjd

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Right now, Bledsoe IS the QB and will probably finish out the season, barring injury. He is playing well but against inferior competition. Bills are the 100-1 longshot to make the playoffs but after an 0-4 start, I'll take it. Confidence can be carried over towards next year. Plus top FA's will be attracted to a team who appear to be moving in the right direction.

 

What one has to ask themselves is whether DB is the guy who can take this team to the promised land. I realize that history shows some QB's who went to the SB with half the resume DB has. Lots of other factors enter into the equation,such as the OL, playcalling,running game,turnovers etc.

 

Like everyone, I root hard for guys like Bledsoe, who also happens to be the model athlete off the field. I'm looking at the overall makeup of the team and how our QB fits his surroundings.

 

I basically rank teams A,B and C. The Bills were a low C to start the season and have progressed to a B status, as of now.( A is the Pats, Steelers and Eagles..that's it. ) Since the horrid mid-November Pats game, the Bills have defeated the Rams,Seahawks and Dolphins...3 teams playing C football. I'm very pleased with the victories and can see our team improving. Still, I take each of those wins at face value, meaning we defeated 3 teams we SHOULD have beaten. Cleveland falls under the same heading.

 

Cinci on the road and Pittsburgh will give us a clearer picture of how far Bledose has progressed with this Offense. I'm not making conclusions either way, until I see the games. Recent history shows that if a good D puts 8-9 in the box,stopping the RB and daring DB to beat them, he fails miserably. I will not blindly declare him our QB for the long term until he shows he can BEAT the A teams who have a good defense. Passing blame to the OL or the playcalling each time he fails doesn't cut it. Winning big games is the bottom line.

 

The Pats look to be strong for the next few years. They don't fear Bledsoe at all. So should we just plan on achieving a Wild-card birth as the best case scenerio for the next few years ? I can't see the Bills ever being ahead of the Pats in the divisional standings, with #11 under Center. So should we just settle ?  We wouldn't fair too well against them in a road playoff game. So what's the point?

 

To get to the SB, it's best to clinch your division and gain home field. Win 2 home games and you're in the big game. Going on the road,especially as a wildcard qualifier, makes it much tougher. That means Bledsoe going up against A teams who will put 8,9 in the box and make him beat their D. They know he cannot move or scramble to make a positive play. Still have my doubts about him, regardless of how good the surrounding cast is.

 

I have to think that DB will soon see a quick hook if he starts to look pathetic against a good team, a scenerio which is still very likely. Losman is unproven but provides a mobility factor that could give the Bills a 2nd chance on plays that DB could never turn into a positive.

 

I remember back in 1983, a young John Elway looked absolutely terrible in his rookie year. The fans called for the old vet, Steve DeBerg to be the starter and cut down on the mistakes.  The only problem was, DeBerg had zero upside and was never going to take Denver anywhere . In the playoffs, the guy failed. Elway had to go through some growing pains but was well worth the gamble, due to his huge upside. The next year, Elway should signs of improvement and the old reliable DeBerg was soon traded away.

 

I view Bledsoe in this light, good but with many shortcomings that will come back to burn you against the top teams, especially come playoff time. Long term, giving Losman a shot in 2005 may be the right decision. It may take a bad game or 2 by Bledose to make it happen but the change is inevitable.

 

Losman will get his chance soon, for the long term health of this team.

 

JMHO. Flame away.

149961[/snapback]

 

 

I agree with almost all of this -- the one hang up I had (which I'm not sure you intended) is the analogy to equate DB with Steve Deberg. Sorry, that Canadian was at best an average NFL QB all of his career. DB has shown flashes of the spectacular -- not always, not consistently, but moreso than Deberg ever could have hoped for. The equating of JPL with Elway we'll take just because we don't know.

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Mark VI Veteran

Mark VI

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You just have to avoid beating yourself and not make a lot of stupid mistakes (ie like Bledsoe did in the first 4 games this year). Just play within yourself and your abilities, don't turn the ball over and rely more on special teams and defense

150034[/snapback]

 

That's my whole point. This is the area where Bledsoe has been a huge failure, since the middle of 2002 ( and before..ask any Pats fan..). How can that NOT come back to bite us, if we ever make the playoffs with him under Center ?

 

When he is challenged by good Defenses, he chokes. How can we expect to win against good playoff teams, knowing how many times he's tanked under similar circumstances ?

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Fake-Fat Sunny Veteran

Fake-Fat Sunny

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Looking at the substance of your post Mark, I think you raise some good points and I would add these additional thoughts:

 

1. You are correct to note that the last three Bills opponents were as you put them C level and a better assessment can be made against an A opponent (Pitt) or a B opponent (Cincy) on the road.

 

However, rather than dismissing the results against a C opponent, there is reasonable assessment which can be done based on how the Bills beat those C opponents (like a drum scoring 117 points, by more than a TD against Miami, and in laughers against the other two. It is true they were not among the best of tests, but we beat them the way C teams should be beaten rather than edging them on last second field goals and that seems meaningful.

 

2. Parsing why they and how they beat the opponents is important. There is no trend here in that the margin of victory was always the D, always the ST, or (amazing as it is to even say considering Bledsoe's horrid production last year) always the O. In these three games each of these units has excelled for at least 8 of the 12 quarters. Even when some of their work has stunk up the joint (the D play in the first quarter Sunday, Bledsoe's pics) the other units have picked up for them.

 

It actually speaks most hopefully for the Bills in that this team does not appear to be dependent upon one particular unit leading the charge meaning for example if you beat our D, you beat the Bills, but they have shown the ability in the last three games to survive one of the units getting beaten as almost always happens in the NFL.

 

3. Finally, it is worth noting that one games results can easily be a blip from the "any given Sunday" aspects of NFL play. 2 game results can also actually easily be a coincidence. However, three games results can also set up a trend, I feel very good about this team coming home and facing a team on a downward spiral in Cleveland right now because like it or not the Bills need to win out. Any given Sunday means the Bills must show up to play or they may well lose, but the set-up is there for us to turn our performances into an undeniable trend as we head into the tougher must win games against a B opponent on the road and an A opponent at home

 

We have to win out and this seems like the best road to do so.

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What an outstanding assessment of our situation in Buffalo. It's the most realistic thing I've read in a while. Thanks!

 

Right now, Bledsoe IS the QB and will probably finish out the season, barring injury. He is playing well but against inferior competition. Bills are the 100-1 longshot to make the playoffs but after an 0-4 start, I'll take it. Confidence can be carried over towards next year. Plus top FA's will be attracted to a team who appear to be moving in the right direction.

 

What one has to ask themselves is whether DB is the guy who can take this team to the promised land. I realize that history shows some QB's who went to the SB with half the resume DB has. Lots of other factors enter into the equation,such as the OL, playcalling,running game,turnovers etc.

 

Like everyone, I root hard for guys like Bledsoe, who also happens to be the model athlete off the field. I'm looking at the overall makeup of the team and how our QB fits his surroundings.

 

I basically rank teams A,B and C. The Bills were a low C to start the season and have progressed to a B status, as of now.( A is the Pats, Steelers and Eagles..that's it. ) Since the horrid mid-November Pats game, the Bills have defeated the Rams,Seahawks and Dolphins...3 teams playing C football. I'm very pleased with the victories and can see our team improving. Still, I take each of those wins at face value, meaning we defeated 3 teams we SHOULD have beaten. Cleveland falls under the same heading.

 

Cinci on the road and Pittsburgh will give us a clearer picture of how far Bledose has progressed with this Offense. I'm not making conclusions either way, until I see the games. Recent history shows that if a good D puts 8-9 in the box,stopping the RB and daring DB to beat them, he fails miserably. I will not blindly declare him our QB for the long term until he shows he can BEAT the A teams who have a good defense. Passing blame to the OL or the playcalling each time he fails doesn't cut it. Winning big games is the bottom line.

 

The Pats look to be strong for the next few years. They don't fear Bledsoe at all. So should we just plan on achieving a Wild-card birth as the best case scenerio for the next few years ? I can't see the Bills ever being ahead of the Pats in the divisional standings, with #11 under Center. So should we just settle ?  We wouldn't fair too well against them in a road playoff game. So what's the point?

 

To get to the SB, it's best to clinch your division and gain home field. Win 2 home games and you're in the big game. Going on the road,especially as a wildcard qualifier, makes it much tougher. That means Bledsoe going up against A teams who will put 8,9 in the box and make him beat their D. They know he cannot move or scramble to make a positive play. Still have my doubts about him, regardless of how good the surrounding cast is.

 

I have to think that DB will soon see a quick hook if he starts to look pathetic against a good team, a scenerio which is still very likely. Losman is unproven but provides a mobility factor that could give the Bills a 2nd chance on plays that DB could never turn into a positive.

 

I remember back in 1983, a young John Elway looked absolutely terrible in his rookie year. The fans called for the old vet, Steve DeBerg to be the starter and cut down on the mistakes.  The only problem was, DeBerg had zero upside and was never going to take Denver anywhere . In the playoffs, the guy failed. Elway had to go through some growing pains but was well worth the gamble, due to his huge upside. The next year, Elway should signs of improvement and the old reliable DeBerg was soon traded away.

 

I view Bledsoe in this light, good but with many shortcomings that will come back to burn you against the top teams, especially come playoff time. Long term, giving Losman a shot in 2005 may be the right decision. It may take a bad game or 2 by Bledose to make it happen but the change is inevitable.

 

Losman will get his chance soon, for the long term health of this team.

 

JMHO. Flame away.

149961[/snapback]

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Campy Veteran

Campy

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Is Miami a Playoff caliber team ? They did turn the ball over 7 times.

150040[/snapback]

Moot point as Bledsoe plays offense, not defense. But on offense, Bledsoe had a QB rating of over 130 against the NFL's top rated pass D. And remember, WM picked up 40 yards in what essentially was garbage time. That meant DB carried the team while WM had about 50 yards on the ground.

 

I don't disagree with the overall gist of the post I just quoted though. It's a team game, and when the D and Special Teams play well, when the OL gives you time to make plays, when the RB picks up the blitz, and when the WRs don't drop too many balls, the QB will generally look pretty good. But in that game, it'd be tough to ask more from a QB than what DB did against their pass D.

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Rico Hall of Famer

Rico

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Drew played GREAT on Sunday,

hats off to him for his best game as a Bill IMO,

and I'm really enjoying this run that we are on.

 

He needed to have a lot more games like this past Sunday for me to change my opinion,

thanks to the ugly memories of his performance against good teams in big games.

With what appears to be only 4 games left, I think he's run out of time.

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IDBillzFan Hall of Famer

IDBillzFan

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:doh:  No bashing at all. Just trying to be pragmatic about the QB position.

 

The Pats stopped Willis on 11/14, forcing DB to make plays. We saw the results. I'm sure pleased with his play of late, against bad teams. The jury is still out.

150005[/snapback]

Miami tried to do the same thing, it seemed to me. Take McGahee out of the equation and make Bledsoe beat you. I don't think the Pats have a better defense than Miami...just better schemes, coupled with the fact that I'm one of those guys who is convinced BB is in DB's head and that nothing Drew does in Foxboro will matter.

 

Is this the moment you tell us you'll never write about Bledsoe again, just before you write about Bledsoe again? :P

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:)  No bashing at all. Just trying to be pragmatic about the QB position.

 

The Pats stopped Willis on 11/14, forcing DB to make plays. We saw the results. I'm sure pleased with his play of late, against bad teams. The jury is still out.

150005[/snapback]

Pragmatism? In Buffalo?

 

You jest!

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Rubes All Pro

Rubes

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Recent history shows that if a good D puts 8-9 in the box,stopping the RB and daring DB to beat them, he fails miserably. I will not blindly declare him our QB for the long term until he shows he can BEAT the A teams who have a good defense.

149961[/snapback]

 

Not that I disagree with you or anything, but didn't Miami essentially try this against us? They have a pretty good defense.

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