Kelsay Deal Makes Sense

[Sisyphean Bills]

In some respects, I do agree with the OP. Earlier this month I talked about possibly trading Evans for a pick (still not a bad idea for a high pick) and got trashed with the excuse that it creates another hole to fill, we have plenty of them to fill, why so we can draft another WR - should use the draft pick for another area of need, etc.

 

Not extending Kelsay, who is average at best, creates another hole that will have to be filled. We need more than one LB, we need DE and DT help, OL help, QB help etc...so we extended Kelsay for 4 years, we are in good cap shape and this doesn't set us back at all. It buys us what 4 years to find a replacement while we fill the other holes we have...If we find a replacement for him sooner, he can be a backup or get released (and not screw us over in much dead cap money)...In the mean time, he is a good locker room guy who is respected by his peers - why replace him with a Cornell Green???? If we signed or drafted the next TKO or Patrick Willis or whatever, then you put him in one of 4 spots and play your next best 3 LBs as starters and the rest are backups...We really have much more to worry about than us extending Kelsay for 4 years...

This is a meaningless argument. Not extending Kelsay now does NOT mean there is another hole to fill. (That only happens if they cut him today to sign a street free agent.)

 

Extending him now only prevents him from hitting the open market when his contract is up. A team that isn't completely dysfunctional would be able to realize exactly what Kelsay is being asked to do here, be able to accurately access his open market value, and have on the radar screen their options. The latter point should be stressed and repeated. A professionally run team always has some ideas about options because players get injured, players retire, and situations change. Extending Kelsay now says that the Bills do not want him on the open market because they think he is highly prized; that if he were to hit the open market, that other teams would be bidding on him and drive up his price and possibly significantly higher than they were willing to pay. Who the hell are these teams? Which teams are still running the Tampa-2 (or a defense that relies on undersized DEs) and will throw out a contract at more than $6M/yr for Kelsay? (The Bills say they are trying to get away from that sort of defense!) Furthermore, it suggests that they think Kelsay is the very best option they have at OLB for the next few seasons. That his terrible play as he transitions to OLB cannot be replaced easily by picking up some other player. To that, all one can ask is WTF?!?

 

This isn't criticism of Chris Kelsay as a human being. I wish him and his family the best, and this is no doubt great news to them.

 

But, this is clearly a strategic miscalculation on the part of the Bills FO. It's blunders like paying top dollar for below average production, see Derrick Dockery, that make this team a statistical outlier in their ineptness and inability to compete. It's all about making bad decisions.

Edited September 30, 2010 by Sisyphean Bills

[jonramz]

This is a serious question to OP... if Chris Kelsay is a free agent, what does he get on the open market?

 

I can guarantee you he gets nowhere near 4yr $24mil and that is why people are so upset with the move

[Fan in Chicago]

Which is the whole f-ng point!

 

By tying up serious dollars to an average player, you limit your resources to improve the club.

 

Has anyone said Mickey Mouse operation, yet?

We haven't exactly been splurging lately anyway. And if the goal is to improve by forever drafting well, we can manage the salaries without too much trouble. Just got to stop picking in the top 10 every year, I guess.

[dave mcbride]

Which is the whole f-ng point!

 

By tying up serious dollars to an average player, you limit your resources to improve the club.

 

Has anyone said Mickey Mouse operation, yet?

I actually disagree, GG, and tend to agree with the OP. Is he great? No. But he's average (he really is!), he generally doesn't get hurt, and once he's comfortable in the defense, I do think that he'll tend to stay in position (which he did in the prior defense). The last thing the Bills need to be doing is spending a 1-3 rd draft pick on a strong side 3-4 LB with so many other pressing needs. On a good team, he'd be a highly functional, decent vet. Recall that he was the starting LDE on one of the best Bills defenses of all time (statistically speaking), the 2004 squad. As for how much he's really going to make, who knows? More importantly, who cares? The cap doesn't exist anymore, and even if it does come back, the Bills are so far under it that it doesn't matter. Moreover, the way revenue is growing in the NFL, 6 yrs/$24 million (which I doubt he's actually making) won't seem like a helluva lot come 2012.

 

One final comment: people are going crazy here because he struggled covering Jermichael Finlay. Newsflash: there's not a LB in the league who can cover him. So let's not hold him to a ridiculous standard.

Edited September 30, 2010 by dave mcbride

[K Gun Special]

I actually disagree, GG, and tend to agree with the OP. Is he great? No. But he's average (he really is!), he generally doesn't get hurt, and once he's comfortable in the defense, I do think that he'll tend to stay in position (which he did in the prior defense). The last thing the Bills need to be doing is spending a 1-3 rd draft pick on a strong side 3-4 LB with so many other pressing needs. On a good team, he'd be a highly functional, decent vet. Recall that he was the starting LDE on one of the best Bills defenses of all time (statistically speaking), the 2004 squad. As for how much he's really going to make, who knows? More importantly, who cares? The cap doesn't exist anymore, and even if it does come back, the Bills are so far under it that it doesn't matter.

 

One final comment: people are going crazy here because he struggled covering Jermichael Finlay. Newsflash: there's not a LB in the league who can cover him. So let's not hold him to a ridiculous standard.

 

 

We've been shredded every week by TE's. Kelsay cant cover his own shadow. and the OP's premise was we can resign everyone in one offeason but all the players listed are still under contract.

[dave mcbride]

We've been shredded every week by TE's. Kelsay cant cover his own shadow. and the OP's premise was we can resign everyone in one offeason but all the players listed are still under contract.

Answer the question - what LB in the NFL can cover the guys playing TE that the Bills face (Hernandez/Gronkowski, Finlay, and Fasano)?????? They're all mismatches for NFL LBs.

 

Btw, he's only making 5 million per year, not 6. (It's really a $20 million contract: http://www.buffalonews.com/sports/bills-nfl/article205544.ece ). And, btw, he wasn't the LB (not) covering Aaron Hernandez last week.

[K Gun Special]

Answer the question - what LB in the NFL can cover the guys playing TE that the Bills face (Hernandez/Gronkowski, Finlay, and Fasano)?????? They're all mismatches for NFL LBs.

 

Btw, he's only making 5 million per year, not 6. (It's really a $20 million contract: http://www.buffalonews.com/sports/bills-nfl/article205544.ece ). And, btw, he wasn't the LB (not) covering Aaron Hernandez last week.

 

Yes we have played good TE's

 

No Kelsay isnt worth $5 or $6 million per year. You gotta be kidding me. He's an average NFL player, he is not an impact guy yet a team with big needs is paying him $5 million to be average. Thats my point.

[dave mcbride]

Yes we have played good TE's

 

No Kelsay isnt worth $5 or $6 million per year. You gotta be kidding me. He's an average NFL player, he is not an impact guy yet a team with big needs is paying him $5 million to be average. Thats my point.

My point is that fans have a completely skewed understanding of payments to NFL players. The Bills don't spend much money, and by NFL standards he's not making a king's ransom. He's getting $5 million a year, and I'm betting he's making less than Maybin. It truly doesn't matter. I don't know why people get so worked up about the salary. He's solid against the run - that's pretty clear. Is he great in coverage? No. Is he the sort of guy who will stay in position and hold the point of attack from his 3-4 spot? Yeah, he is. He's not a superstar and obviously never will be, but the Bills have far, far, far bigger needs than a strongside 3-4 LB.

[pioniere]

He'll be cut long before he reaches the end of that extension. Relax, folks.

[K Gun Special]

My point is that fans have a completely skewed understanding of payments to NFL players. The Bills don't spend much money, and by NFL standards he's not making a king's ransom. He's getting $5 million a year, and I'm betting he's making less than Maybin. It truly doesn't matter. I don't know why people get so worked up about the salary. He's solid against the run - that's pretty clear. Is he great in coverage? No. Is he the sort of guy who will stay in position and hold the point of attack from his 3-4 spot? Yeah, he is. He's not a superstar and obviously never will be, but the Bills have far, far, far bigger needs than a strongside 3-4 LB.

 

 

I dont have a prob bc its $5m i have a prob bc its $5m to kelsay

 

 

Looking briefly this number puts him in the top 10 for LB salary. TOP 10!!!!! The problem is this team cant afford to pay mediocre players big time money.

[Sisyphean Bills]

My point is that fans have a completely skewed understanding of payments to NFL players. The Bills don't spend much money, and by NFL standards he's not making a king's ransom. He's getting $5 million a year, and I'm betting he's making less than Maybin. It truly doesn't matter. I don't know why people get so worked up about the salary. He's solid against the run - that's pretty clear. Is he great in coverage? No. Is he the sort of guy who will stay in position and hold the point of attack from his 3-4 spot? Yeah, he is. He's not a superstar and obviously never will be, but the Bills have far, far, far bigger needs than a strongside 3-4 LB.

It's not the money. It's the strategic decision making process. Why the rush? Seriously, is Kelsay truly irreplaceable? A DE going into his 30's that is just starting to learn to play OLB for the first time in his career is irreplaceable?

 

I disagree that the Bills don't need good, versatile 3-4 OLBs that can play the passing game (both aspects) in their new defense. For starters, the Bills play Tom Brady twice a year, and with no pass rush and no underneath coverage skills they aren't going to get past the Patriots any time in the near future.

Edited September 30, 2010 by Sisyphean Bills

[GG]

I actually disagree, GG, and tend to agree with the OP. Is he great? No. But he's average (he really is!), he generally doesn't get hurt, and once he's comfortable in the defense, I do think that he'll tend to stay in position (which he did in the prior defense). The last thing the Bills need to be doing is spending a 1-3 rd draft pick on a strong side 3-4 LB with so many other pressing needs. On a good team, he'd be a highly functional, decent vet. Recall that he was the starting LDE on one of the best Bills defenses of all time (statistically speaking), the 2004 squad. As for how much he's really going to make, who knows? More importantly, who cares? The cap doesn't exist anymore, and even if it does come back, the Bills are so far under it that it doesn't matter. Moreover, the way revenue is growing in the NFL, 6 yrs/$24 million (which I doubt he's actually making) won't seem like a helluva lot come 2012.

 

One final comment: people are going crazy here because he struggled covering Jermichael Finlay. Newsflash: there's not a LB in the league who can cover him. So let's not hold him to a ridiculous standard.

 

Even at $5 mil/yr, or at $10 - $12 mil in guarantees, he's above the payscale that his play warrants. To me it's opportunity costs. They could have easily extended him at a more reasonable $3-$4 mil/yr level that a consistently average 31-yr old LBs make, and use the spare cash to sign other players of need. The other thing that it does is add more ammunition to the agents negotiating contracts with the Bills - if an average Joe like Kelsay warrants that kind of a contract, what should it say about a guy who actually can contribute meaningful stats?

 

The money thing wouldn't matter if Overdorf didn't have a select policy of who he opens up the checkbook for. Rightly or wrongly, that's exactly what Jason Peters was looking at when he saw the money that Schobel & Kelsay were getting for hteir production levels. Good luck in future contract renegotiations if Bills actually turn up a good player through the draft.

[dave mcbride]

It's not the money. It's the strategic decision making process. Why the rush? Seriously, is Kelsay truly irreplaceable? A DE going into his 30's that is just starting to learn to play OLB for the first time in his career is irreplaceable?

 

I disagree that the Bills don't need good, versatile 3-4 OLBs that can play the passing game (both aspects) in their new defense. For starters, the Bills play Tom Brady twice a year, and with no pass rush and no underneath coverage skills they aren't going to get past the Patriots any time in the near future.

The Bills don't need a great pass rusher from the strong side (and anyway, he's not that bad of a pass rusher). They need it from the weakside, and they're not getting it. Maybin appears to be terrible, which is really unfortunate. At any rate, Kelsay is not a bad player. He just isn't. And he's durable. Don't underestimate that.

 

Even at $5 mil/yr, or at $10 - $12 mil in guarantees, he's above the payscale that his play warrants. To me it's opportunity costs. They could have easily extended him at a more reasonable $3-$4 mil/yr level that a consistently average 31-yr old LBs make, and use the spare cash to sign other players of need. The other thing that it does is add more ammunition to the agents negotiating contracts with the Bills - if an average Joe like Kelsay warrants that kind of a contract, what should it say about a guy who actually can contribute meaningful stats?

 

The money thing wouldn't matter if Overdorf didn't have a select policy of who he opens up the checkbook for. Rightly or wrongly, that's exactly what Jason Peters was looking at when he saw the money that Schobel & Kelsay were getting for hteir production levels. Good luck in future contract renegotiations if Bills actually turn up a good player through the draft.

I'd like to see how he does as they year goes on. Presumably, they must see something in him that makes them want to keep him. And Christ, no one was bitching when the Bills signed Dwan Edwards for 4 years/$18 million. He's been significantly less productive than Kelsay ( http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/stats?playerId=5576 ). (For Kelsay: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/stats?playerId=4506 ). Truly, one's man trash is another man's treasure.

Edited September 30, 2010 by dave mcbride

[K Gun Special]

The Bills don't need a great pass rusher from the strong side (and anyway, he's not that bad of a pass rusher). They need it from the weakside, and they're not getting it. Maybin appears to be terrible, which is really unfortunate. At any rate, Kelsay is not a bad player. He just isn't. And he's durable. Don't underestimate that.

 

 

I'd like to see how he does as they year goes on. Presumably, they must see something in him that makes them want to keep him. And Christ, no one was bitching when the Bills signed Dwan Edwards for 4 years/$18 million. He's been significantly less productive than Kelsay ( http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/stats?playerId=5576 ). Truly, one's man trash is another man's treasure.

 

 

Lots of $5million LBs cant rush the passer, he's awful as a pass rusher and good against the run. Not good in coverage.

 

He averages 3 tackles a game and has 22 career sacks in 117 games. That's bad pass rushing. And to say you dont need a pass rush from your OLB on the strong side is silly.

 

Btw dwan edwards is a 3-4 DE, not 4-3 DE or OLB who should always have better stats.

[Sisyphean Bills]

The Bills don't need a great pass rusher from the strong side (and anyway, he's not that bad of a pass rusher). They need it from the weakside, and they're not getting it. Maybin appears to be terrible, which is really unfortunate. At any rate, Kelsay is not a bad player. He just isn't. And he's durable. Don't underestimate that.

 

I'd like to see how he does as they year goes on. Presumably, they must see something in him that makes them want to keep him. And Christ, no one was bitching when the Bills signed Dwan Edwards for 4 years/$18 million. Truly, one's man trash is another man's treasure.

The Bills need pass rushers period. Kelsay averages 0.19 sacks a game and is in the downside of his career. (Stats don't tell the entire story either. Watching him, it is obvious he is not a good pass rusher.)

 

Dwan Edwards was allowed to hit free agency for a reason. The Ravens knew not to overvalue a replaceable player.

Edited September 30, 2010 by Sisyphean Bills

[GG]

I'd like to see how he does as they year goes on. Presumably, they must see something in him that makes them want to keep him. And Christ, no one was bitching when the Bills signed Dwan Edwards for 4 years/$18 million. He's been significantly less productive than Kelsay ( http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/stats?playerId=5576 ). (For Kelsay: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/stats?playerId=4506 ). Truly, one's man trash is another man's treasure.

 

C'mon Dave, an OLB who has one more tackle than a DE is more productive?

[dave mcbride]

The Bills need pass rushers period. Kelsay averages 0.19 sacks a game and is in the downside of his career.

 

Dwan Edwards was allowed to hit free agency for a reason. The Ravens knew not to overvalue a replaceable player.

There have been good pieces written on how contrary to conventional wisdom, pass rushers often hit their stride in their early 30s because they understand the game so much better (e.g., Bruce Smith had his best year in 1996, Strahan in 07, Jason Taylor in 2006, Chris Doleman in 1998, etc.). I wish I could find the article I'm referring to, but I simply can't. It was convincing, but I guess you'll have to trust me. I'm pretty sure it was a Sporting News piece.

 

I don't think I saw you bitching about the signing of Edwards. Forgive me if I'm wrong.

 

At any rate, you're not going to get a superstar at every position. But there is a decent chance you'll get guys who suck if you undervalue steady/solid players.

 

C'mon Dave, an OLB who has one more tackle than a DE is more productive?

I'm talking about career -- 3 games is far too small of a sample size anyway. Statistically, Kelsay has been a significantly more productive player.

[K Gun Special]

There have been good pieces written on how contrary to conventional wisdom, pass rushers often hit their stride in their early 30s because they understand the game so much better (e.g., Bruce Smith had his best year in 1996, Strahan in 07, Jason Taylor in 2006, Chris Doleman in 1998, etc.). I wish I could find the article I'm referring to, but I simply can't. It was convincing, but I guess you'll have to trust me. I'm pretty sure it was a Sporting News piece.

 

I don't think I saw you bitching about the signing of Edwards. Forgive me if I'm wrong.

 

At any rate, you're not going to get a superstar at every position. But there is a decent chance you'll get guys who suck if you undervalue steady/solid players.

 

 

I'm talking about career -- 3 games is far too small of a sample size anyway. Statistically, Kelsay has been a significantly more productive player.

 

Fair points but those guys actually made some sacks prior to hitting their peak. Kelsay will never hit double digits, he barely sniffs the QB now.

 

The point isnt really that he was resigned its that at $6 million you should be getting a primetime OLB, one who doesnt have obvious deficiencies in his game.

 

Look up the other $6 million OLBs and tell me who Kelsay compares to ?

[tennesseeboy]

how about replacing one through free agency (Karlos Dansby perhaps)

One through the draft (round 2 or 3)

One through letting four or five of the losers you mentioned go and picking up possible actual players through the waiver wire or trade?

 

I'm not seeing any real action to get better. I guess a lot of posters on this board think we will get better by doing nothing this year and picking up 22 starters with our high draft picks next season.

[dave mcbride]

how about replacing one through free agency (Karlos Dansby perhaps)

One through the draft (round 2 or 3)

One through letting four or five of the losers you mentioned go and picking up possible actual players through the waiver wire or trade?

 

I'm not seeing any real action to get better. I guess a lot of posters on this board think we will get better by doing nothing this year and picking up 22 starters with our high draft picks next season.

No, my plan would be to pick up a QB, a LT, and a weakside pass rushing LB through the draft. In that order. Preferably, they'll be able to move up to obtain another second by acquiring some ammo (a third-plus for Marshawn?) A Dansby comes around once every few years (not every year) and the Bills aren't going to be able to sign that sort of player anyway because of both money and the attractiveness of the destination. The Karlos Dansbys of the world ain't signing with the Bills.

 

Fair points but those guys actually made some sacks prior to hitting their peak. Kelsay will never hit double digits, he barely sniffs the QB now.

 

The point isnt really that he was resigned its that at $6 million you should be getting a primetime OLB, one who doesnt have obvious deficiencies in his game.

 

Look up the other $6 million OLBs and tell me who Kelsay compares to ?

It's $5 million, and honestly I'd have to look. The whole thing is skewed because guys like Vernon Gholston and Aaron Maybin have broken the bank as first round picks.