Buckeye Eric Posted December 6, 2004 Share Posted December 6, 2004 Could be 19 is the Seahawks lose tonight. The Bills picked Losman at 22. So, as long as they at least hold their position TDs decision is looking to be at least a break even one. Now that I think about it, as WM and LE have played well, DB winning games, and the teams draft position dropping the number of posts slamming TD seems to have dropped significantly .... hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted December 6, 2004 Share Posted December 6, 2004 Hmmm. Seahags lose and the Bills' pick goes to 19th overall, or Cowboys lose and THEIR original pick goes even lower, as does their record? Tough choice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRH Posted December 6, 2004 Share Posted December 6, 2004 The best part is that next year's draft appears to be relatively weak. Even better is that it's particularly weak at the top, which means Miami picked a bad year to suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajzepp Posted December 6, 2004 Share Posted December 6, 2004 Could be 19 is the Seahawks lose tonight. the number of posts slamming TD seems to have dropped significantly .... hmmm. 148883[/snapback] TD has said from the beginning that the team is close......he's never waivered on that. While I understand that we got off to a horrible start and many felt the need to target him......others (myself included) chose to recognize that TD was clearly determined to do whatever he needed to do in order to get this team on the right track. He knew from the beginning of the year that we were close......so apparently TD knows more about football and the Bills than we do. DUH!!! Kudos to all the rest of you who supported TD through all of this.......the guy is an asset and a blessing to this team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Jokeman Posted December 6, 2004 Share Posted December 6, 2004 Could be 19 is the Seahawks lose tonight. The Bills picked Losman at 22. So, as long as they at least hold their position TDs decision is looking to be at least a break even one. Now that I think about it, as WM and LE have played well, DB winning games, and the teams draft position dropping the number of posts slamming TD seems to have dropped significantly .... hmmm. 148883[/snapback] It's unfair to evaluate the trade right now. However if we're going to evaluate it you have to take all parts and variables involved. Case in point the question will remain will Julius Jones, Sean Ryan and the player drafted by the Cowboys prove to be worth more then JP Losman? Now that is only one evaluation, as we could also look at a scenario others have brought up. That being had the Bills taken JP with the 13th pick and instead of trading up taken a WR in the 2nd Round. One WR that could be considered was Keary Colbert, who's produced well for Carolina thus far. In terms of the 5th Round pick who know what the Bills have selected. For sake of arguement I'll stay OG Jeb Terry, a guy I liked coming out of the draft who's been a reserve with the Tampa Bay Bucs. The NFL Experts ranks Jimmy Williams as the 18th best prospect in the draft. Ironically he's a FS, which is a need position for the Bills. The question is again would this combination of players be better then JP and Evans? Also factoring in the Cowboys, is the combination of whomever they select, Julius Jones and again Sean Ryan going to be better then Steven Jackson or Kevin Jones (two RBs they could have selected had they not traded down)? Time will tell how everything sorts out. As looking back I think everyone will agree the trade for Rob Johnson that let Jacksonville get Fred Taylor was a mistake. However I think it was a mistake not so much because we didn't get Fred Taylor (as at the time Antowain Smith was our RB of the future) but because we didn't get LOT Tra Thomas, whom the Eagles took two picks after Taylor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan Trapped in Pats Land Posted December 6, 2004 Share Posted December 6, 2004 Hard to tell on this one. Personally, I think the Bills are better served by taking Losman in what was supposed to be the deepest QB crop in 20 years, and having him learn the NFL for a season than taking a guy this coming draft and throwing him to the wolves. I still think Miami gets a great player, at the #2 spot....but probably not the QB of the future that they need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrobot Posted December 6, 2004 Share Posted December 6, 2004 I'd be very surprised if the Dolphins keep the #2 pick. I'd expect anyone with an early pick and salary cap issues to trade down. Their new QB won't be their #2 pick, IMHO. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATBNG Posted December 6, 2004 Share Posted December 6, 2004 Could be 19 is the Seahawks lose tonight. The Bills picked Losman at 22. So, as long as they at least hold their position TDs decision is looking to be at least a break even one. A 19, a 45 and a 144 for a 22 is a break even deal? The side with the higher first round pick gets the additional 2 and the five - that's still a crummy deal. Like someone said earlier, the deal will eventually be evaluated when all the players involved get to show what they can do on the NFL level, but Losman hasn't played save for those garbage time snaps, so I don't see how this deal is any different than it was a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cåblelady Posted December 7, 2004 Share Posted December 7, 2004 The best part is that next year's draft appears to be relatively weak. Even better is that it's particularly weak at the top, which means Miami picked a bad year to suck. 148911[/snapback] Good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted December 7, 2004 Share Posted December 7, 2004 Could be 19 is the Seahawks lose tonight. The Bills picked Losman at 22. So, as long as they at least hold their position TDs decision is looking to be at least a break even one. Now that I think about it, as WM and LE have played well, DB winning games, and the teams draft position dropping the number of posts slamming TD seems to have dropped significantly .... hmmm. 148883[/snapback] Actually...the underlying issue with this is what makes it so wonderfull.... - Yes....the pick may indeed be even and we would have picked in that area....but what cannot be valued is the YEAR OF EXPERIENCE he got with the team....yeah he was hurt a lot of the year...but he did get a lot of reps....invaluable.... - The other aspect is the level of QB talent in next years draft...what kind of QB would we have gotten at the 19th pick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted December 7, 2004 Share Posted December 7, 2004 That's why Bill pArcell's is so glum these days. His team will have a MUCH better 1st round pick than the one he's getting from the Bills. And the picks are moving farther apart every week! They are circling the drain in Big D! PTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAMIEBUF12 Posted December 7, 2004 Share Posted December 7, 2004 The best part is that next year's draft appears to be relatively weak. Even better is that it's particularly weak at the top, which means Miami picked a bad year to suck. 148911[/snapback] what do you mean the dolphins picked a bad year to suck? THE DOLPHINS WILL ALWAYS SUCK!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Guest Posted December 7, 2004 Share Posted December 7, 2004 If you go and look at the chart that assigns values to draft picks, a #22 is worth 780 points. What the "experts" say is if a pick is traded for one in the next years draft, you subtract one rond in value for each pick. Therefore, assuming the Bills end up with the 19th pick. The 19th pick in the second round is worth 390 points; plus this past years #13 in the second round was worth 450; plus the 13th pick in the fifth round is worth 35.5 for a grand total of 875.5. So basically the Bills gave up 95 points in draft trade value which is about equal to the fourth pick in 4th round. If the Bills do somehow make the playoffs, then the value to the Cowboys drops by about 50 points. All in all, yes it is a break even deal. Regardless of how Losman does, who's to say if the Bills had the 19th pick this year, they woudn't have picked someone who also turns out to be a bust. Even if whomever the Cowboys pick with the 19th pick end up a ten year pro bowl player and goes to the HOF, you'd have no way of knowing that the Bills would have picked the same guy. So in reality, the only realistic way to evaluate any trades like this IS draft pick value. Given that, it is a pretty even trade. An considering the Bills were trying to move up more than the Cowboys wanted to move down, you always have to give more than you're getting in return to get the other team to agree to the deal. So they gave up 95 draft points to make the trade. A 19, a 45 and a 144 for a 22 is a break even deal? The side with the higher first round pick gets the additional 2 and the five - that's still a crummy deal. Like someone said earlier, the deal will eventually be evaluated when all the players involved get to show what they can do on the NFL level, but Losman hasn't played save for those garbage time snaps, so I don't see how this deal is any different than it was a few weeks ago. 149437[/snapback] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATBNG Posted December 7, 2004 Share Posted December 7, 2004 If you go and look at the chart that assigns values to draft picks, a #22 is worth 780 points. What the "experts" say is if a pick is traded for one in the next years draft, you subtract one rond in value for each pick. Therefore, assuming the Bills end up with the 19th pick. The 19th pick in the second round is worth 390 points; plus this past years #13 in the second round was worth 450; plus the 13th pick in the fifth round is worth 35.5 for a grand total of 875.5. So basically the Bills gave up 95 points in draft trade value which is about equal to the fourth pick in 4th round. If the Bills do somehow make the playoffs, then the value to the Cowboys drops by about 50 points. All in all, yes it is a break even deal. Regardless of how Losman does, who's to say if the Bills had the 19th pick this year, they woudn't have picked someone who also turns out to be a bust. Even if whomever the Cowboys pick with the 19th pick end up a ten year pro bowl player and goes to the HOF, you'd have no way of knowing that the Bills would have picked the same guy. So in reality, the only realistic way to evaluate any trades like this IS draft pick value. Given that, it is a pretty even trade. An considering the Bills were trying to move up more than the Cowboys wanted to move down, you always have to give more than you're getting in return to get the other team to agree to the deal. So they gave up 95 draft points to make the trade. 149616[/snapback] I don't buy your contention that you subtract one round in value per pick when you wait a year. Not for a single second. That is a ridiculously high adjustment in a salary cap world. Put those "experts" in quotes for sure, because I don't think much of their opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Guest Posted December 7, 2004 Share Posted December 7, 2004 Could be 19 is the Seahawks lose tonight. The Bills picked Losman at 22. So, as long as they at least hold their position TDs decision is looking to be at least a break even one. Now that I think about it, as WM and LE have played well, DB winning games, and the teams draft position dropping the number of posts slamming TD seems to have dropped significantly .... hmmm. 148883[/snapback] Bills first pick 51st and falling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Posted December 7, 2004 Share Posted December 7, 2004 If you go and look at the chart that assigns values to draft picks, a #22 is worth 780 points. What the "experts" say is if a pick is traded for one in the next years draft, you subtract one rond in value for each pick. Therefore, assuming the Bills end up with the 19th pick. The 19th pick in the second round is worth 390 points; plus this past years #13 in the second round was worth 450; plus the 13th pick in the fifth round is worth 35.5 for a grand total of 875.5. So basically the Bills gave up 95 points in draft trade value which is about equal to the fourth pick in 4th round. Great post Ed and it directly addresses the crux of the issue which is the relative draft value, regardless of the players selected. When you consider that the Bills got a bluechip player at a premium position like QB, the deal only becomes better for them as they actually sacrificed very little to move up a year in the draft to get a type of player that won't be available in that draft position next year. I don't buy your contention that you subtract one round in value per pick when you wait a year. Not for a single second. Don't ask me why Bridesmaid, but that's been the accepted value in the NFL draft for a long time. 1 year = 1 round. Cya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATBNG Posted December 7, 2004 Share Posted December 7, 2004 Don't ask me why Bridesmaid, but that's been the accepted value in the NFL draft for a long time. 1 year = 1 round. Hey Simon - accepted by whom? Let's see some evidence. For instance, this statement does not make any distinction between rounds. It equates swapping a one (2005) for a two (2004) with swapping a 6 (2005) for a 7 (2004). Does anyone think these two things are equal? Do you accept that? I would hope not. Secondly, the state of the GM is a factor in the "bird in hand" argument. If you're on the hot seat, you might make rash decisions that sacrifice the future, because it might be the difference between having your job and not having your job in the following year. So there is value in having the immediate pick to the GM, but not necessarily to the franchise long-term. Recent successful franchises (Philly, New England, Tennessee) have had consistent management teams that do not make panic deals like this. Again, Baltimore tried this with New England, and it ended up being Wilfork and Wilson for Boller. I'm guessing both the New England players are around a lot longer than Kyle. Finally, everyone talks about JP's extra year, but what about Julius Jones' extra year? Ryan's extra year? The Bills got one player who has this extra year, but Dallas got two. Why does only JP's year count? I'm sure Cowboys fans' are disappointed in their season, but I imagine that they're delighted with the trade, especially in light of how well Julius Jones has played the last three weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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